June 25th, 2007
06:55 PM ET
3 years ago

Poll: Bloomberg could have Perot-like effect

Bloomberg could seriously alter the race for the White House, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll finds.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg - who left the Republican Party last week - could have a serious impact on the 2008 presidential race, rivaling billionaire Ross Perot's influence in 1992, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll suggests.

In the new poll's three-way matchups among registered voters, Democratic frontrunner Sen. Hillary Clinton would hold a slight edge in an all-New York race with 41 percent, compared to Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani's 38 percent and Bloomberg's 17.

In a two-way matchup, Clinton and Giuliani are effectively tied, 49-48 percent, with a sampling error of 3.5 percentage points.

In a race pitting Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, against Sen. John McCain, R-Arizona, and Bloomberg, Obama drew 40 percent; McCain, 34 percent; and Bloomberg, 21. Without the New York mayor, Obama would edge McCain 48-44 percent, according to the poll.

The poll showed a possible Giuliani-Obama race a statistical dead heat, with Giuliani at 48 percent and Obama at 46 percent. But Obama led Fred Thompson by a wide margin, 52 percent to 40 percent, the survey found.

About a third of Americans - 33 percent - said they would be very or fairly likely to consider voting for an independent presidential candidate. That is considerably less than in June 1992, when 47 percent said they were likely to consider an independent. Ross Perot ended up taking 19 percent of the popular vote with an independent bid that year.

Bloomberg's decision to abandon the GOP last week has fueled speculation that the two-term billionaire mayor will mount an independent presidential bid. Bloomberg called that talk "very flattering" Wednesday, but said he has no intention of seeking the White House.

The poll, conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corp., surveyed 1,029 adults between Friday and Sunday. It had a sampling error of 3 percentage points.

Meanwhile, in the race for the Republican nomination, former Sen. Fred Thompson trails only Giuliani in a new poll of Republican presidential contenders.

Thompson, who has not yet officially declared his candidacy, saw his support grow from 11 percent in an April survey to 19 percent in the latest poll, taken Friday through Sunday. The former Tennessee senator and "Law & Order" star announced June 1 that he was forming a fund-raising committee, an early step toward a campaign.

Giuliani led among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents with 31 percent support, followed by Thompson with 21 percent. McCain followed with 19 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney drew 11 percent.

Among the other GOP contenders, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Texas congressman Ron Paul were tied with 2 percent; Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas, Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado and former Wisconsin governor and Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson came in with 1 percent each; and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore and Rep. Duncan Hunter of California drew less than half of 1 percent.

The GOP ratings had a sampling error of 5 percentage points.

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, preferences were essentially unchanged from previous polls. Clinton led the list of contenders with 43 percent, without former Vice President Al Gore included in the race. Obama trailed with 25 percent, and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina ran third with 17 percent.

Among the second-tier candidates, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 5 percent support; Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden of Delaware, 3 percent; and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, 2 percent. Connecticut Sen. Christopher Dodd and former Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska each had less than half of 1 percent support.

The sampling error on the Democratic lineup was 4.5 percentage points.

If Gore got into the Democratic race, he would run third with 16 percent, holding Clinton to 35 percent and knocking Edwards down to 13 percent. Obama's support would fall to 23 percent.

Gore, the party's 2000 presidential nominee, has said he has no plans to run again.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has said he will decide whether to seek the White House in the fall. Gingrich would run fifth in the GOP field with 8 percent, behind Romney at 9 percent, McCain at 18 percent, Thompson at 19 and Giuliani at 30.

soundoff (24 Responses)
  1. Shelby, San Diego, CA

    A meaningless poll, with a small sample. This is why CNN is econd to Fox in news. Ridiculous-and biased, of course.

    Anderson Cooper is a joke to news-and arrogant.

    June 25, 2007 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  2. Michael Benedict

    Umm... Hillary's 41% to Giuliani's 38% is *also* within the sampling error of 3.5 percentage point. So it would be wrong to say Hillary would hold a slight edge if Bloomberg enters the race.

    They are 'effectively tied' in either case.

    June 25, 2007 04:32 pm at 4:32 pm |
  3. Dan, Washington, D.C.

    Mayor Bloomberg has the potential to hurt both parties, but I am convinced that he would hurt Democrats more. Bloomberg was a lifelong Democrat before running as a GOP candidate for Mayor a few years ago. Bloomberg has embraced raising taxes to raise city revenue, including a $3 billion tax increase in 2003 and the advocacy of congestion taxes. Bloomberg does not support border protection, saying before the Senate Judiciary Committee that border protection is “futile.” He supports the rights of illegal immigrants, issuing Executive Order 41, which prohibits city employers to ask about prospective employees’ immigration status unless directed to by law. He is also a strong advocate of gun control.

    From the looks of these facts, which I found very easily doing a Yahoo search, Mayor Bloomberg is a Democrat, supporting Republicans and Republican ideals when convenient. Although Democrats, according to polls, are more satisfied with their field of candidates than Republicans, Republicans are dissatisfied because the top three candidates are perceived to be less conservative.

    A Bloomberg independent run would not change Republican dissatisfaction with "Rudy McRomney" but could draw Democrats away from Clinton, Obama, and Edwards.

    June 25, 2007 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  4. Evan Esteves, Boca Raton, FL

    2nd to Fox News...wow maybe 2nd to Fox News in "biased" reporting!

    June 25, 2007 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  5. Shawnie Cannon, Grants Pass OR

    Bloomberg does not have the same platform as Perot, the effects would not be the same. I voted for Perot the first time around, I would not vote for Bloomberg.

    June 25, 2007 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  6. Shawnie Cannon, Grants Pass OR

    P.S. I agree that CNN polls are lop-sided and unreflective of reality.

    June 25, 2007 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  7. Ben, Shawnee, KS

    Also, 1029 is a statistically sound sample size. Most scientific polls have a sample size between 400 and 1500.

    June 25, 2007 05:48 pm at 5:48 pm |
  8. Richard Orlando, FL

    I hope the prospect of an independent candidate would force both parties to take more moderate positions, instead of pandering to their extremes; however, I would not even consider an independent in the 2008 presidential election. While I have concerns with both parties, there is no way that I would risk being stuck with another Republican president. Every conservative candidate, except Ron Paul, would end up expanding this war instead of looking for ways to bring it to a reasonable close. Not to mention, we need no further delays on stem cell research funding, which too many cons are stubbornly against. They are just too out of touch with real Americans to risk any chance they could win by default.

    Sorry Bloomberg, not this election, it's too important. Now 2012, that may be another consideration.

    June 25, 2007 06:09 pm at 6:09 pm |
  9. James, Portland Or

    Amazing no mention of Ron Paul.

    June 25, 2007 07:16 pm at 7:16 pm |
  10. Tom Lobenstein, Montgomery, Ala

    If only! Would be a welcome change if we could field some really good choices in next year's presidential election. I am underwhelmed by the current field of Democrats and Republicans. Mayor Bloomberg, Senator Hagel, Senator Fred Thompson ... might all be better choices and might mount significant challenges to the two major parties in 2008, but, alas, have yet to win–the Socialist Party's Eugene Debs made a respectable showing in 1916, Senator John Anderson ran well in 1980, and Ross Perot polled enough votes to elect Bill Clinton in 1992.

    June 25, 2007 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
  11. Kali, Spencer,VA

    Perhaps this is a clever ploy by Bloomberg and the Republican Party...split the vote,AGAIN, and keep the Reds in power. ANYONE who dares to pull that stunt again should serve a minimum of three ground tours( and have them extended at least 3 months for each tour) in Iraq, regardless of their age,sex,or IQ. The American public is sick of the poltical machine that has set our country on a course of self-destruction! Why not "fix" the Democratic Party-stop trying to please everyone; establish a solid economic base in American by having a solid pyramidic base of workers. Politics in the U.S. has created an upside down pyramid of power! And it will topple!

    June 25, 2007 09:08 pm at 9:08 pm |
  12. Michael Ray Thompson

    Dear CNN: I really hope Sen. Thompson decides to make the run for President. There is no real conservative in the race as yet. Sen. Thompson fills that bill by naming a true Reagan-style conservative to the bill. I hope the Rockefeller Republicans don't try to flex their muscle and prevent Sen. Thompson from getting the nomination. GO FRED THOMPSON!!!!!!!!!!!

    June 25, 2007 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  13. Will

    I do believe that Fred Thompson is also a "Rockefeller Republican," is he not?

    We all know Ron Paul is the choice of the people. It's just a matter of introducing him to more people.

    June 26, 2007 12:22 am at 12:22 am |
  14. Fabio Escobar, Amherst NY

    Yet another story in the thousands we will see about campaign strategy and machinations. Why not instead focus more time on policy? Why not delve into issues instead of playing this high school popularity game of polling and prognostication?

    June 26, 2007 04:40 am at 4:40 am |
  15. BB Pgh PA

    Not to mention their poll probably didn't even include Ron Paul... And their continued lack of coverage of this leading Republican candidate because they know he wouldn't be a pushover to them.

    June 26, 2007 07:49 am at 7:49 am |
  16. Larson, Dallas, TX

    The election is well over a year away. This poll has no meaning. It's CNNs attempt to try to start swaying the election through early biased reporting. Wasn't there just a reporter fired for supporting a candidate? Maybe CNN should be taken off the air and Web for obviously supporting democrats.

    June 26, 2007 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  17. Mark G., Boothbay Main

    Ron Paul is the only one who could rally a third party like the Lilberatarians, the others guys are fodder.

    June 26, 2007 10:10 am at 10:10 am |
  18. michael A, Ankeny IA

    I've been a Ron Paul supporter this whole campaign. Just landed in a rally in Des Moines, IA with 1,000+ people. Lots of cell phones, hardly anyone with land lines, polls like this are dinosaurs.

    July 1, 2007 04:23 pm at 4:23 pm |
  19. HUMANBYDEFAULT

    Dear Countryman

    After all this media show about Iowa and N.H. and the popular slogan backing up the promising seeking of "CHANGE"... I have nothing else to say but... "HOW DARE YOU TO PROPOSE SUCH THING?"

    The word CHANGE in the liberal dictionary of concepts means no other thing than RETREAT. Negotiations with our worse enemy and hope to gain some momentum in our national economy at the expense of allowing islamo-facists to gain strength in their positions. How great!

    CHANGE also means a bigger and stronger goverment sticking its nose in every single matter. A higher tax to the middle class and the stimuli to grow the unemployment with the promise of a humilliating welfare to every one begging outside the poverty lines.

    CHANGE is just about one letter: (R) into (D)!

    Do you (actually) believe that every american is dumb and stupid as many of those sitting in the crowd behind you, Mr. Obama?

    Or how about you Mrs. Hilary?

    CHANGE means for "The Clintons" to go back to the White House using the same trick used in the nineties with the "Health Care for every american" tale. Leave a trail of corruption behind them and fill the New York Times front page with glamorous love scandals...

    ... By the way, who told the Iowans and company that they are the prophets of presidents in this huge nation?

    I've got news for those in the national media in charge of the predicting department:

    Two years ago today, I wrote an article in the MIAMI HERALD [The Miami's favorite toilet paper for news] under the pseudo name of HUMANBYDEFAULT predicting that the winners of the primaries will be Hilary for the liberal party and Rudy Giuliani for my party [the one with the (R)].

    I also said... even when Mr. Giuliani wasn't even thinking of running for the presidential candidacy that HE will be elected president of the United States of America.

    The article was probably erased from the blog... well, you probably know the policy of liberals with respect to conservative opinions in public forums... but many of those who still write there may remember my predictions.

    My point is that all this silly noise about "The new kids in the block" will be a thing of the past when AMERICA VOTES AND COMMON SENSE PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN.

    What I find highly educating [for me] is the way some republicans are attacking Rudy in their radio programs... They are the ones responsible for me thinking to change political affiliation to INDEPENDENT when all this ends. which I'll do A.S.A.P. just in case.

    It doesn't mean that I'll vote democrat... God forbids... but I started to feel myself UNCONFORTABLE with some religious extremist trying to gain power under the flag of being "conservatives." I think it's wrong and the republican party is becoming too far right and too far dumb too. This whole thing about Jesus Christ "telling them what to do" or "giving them inspiration" about political matters scares me the hell out!

    If Rudy wins [as I predicted more than 2 years ago] there will be a deep revision among those who consider themselves carriers of the "true principles" inside the (R) crowd.

    Anyway! It's going to be fun to watch the whole thing until the end.

    HUMANBYDEFAULT

    January 9, 2008 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  20. Bill Morefield

    Please correct your political map that indicates a West Virginia primary on Feb. 5th. The primary election in West Virginia is May 13th.

    January 16, 2008 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |