August 21, 2007
Posted: 09:45 AM ET

CONCORD, New Hampshire (AP)Barack Obama predicted that black voter turnout would swell by at least 30 percent if he wins the presidential nomination, giving Democrats victory in Southern states that have been voting Republican for decades.

"I'm probably the only candidate who having won the nomination can actually redraw the political map," Obama told a Democratic voter skeptical that he could defeat a Republican candidate.

"I guarantee you African-American turnout, if I'm the nominee, goes up 30 percent around the country, minimum," Obama said.

"Young people's percentage of the vote goes up 25-30 percent. So we're in a position to put states in play that haven't been in play since LBJ."

Lyndon Baines Johnson ran for president in 1964 and won in a landslide. But since then the South has turned into a Republican stronghold.

Obama's comment came in response to former New Hampshire state Rep. Carol Moore, who told him the candidate to get her vote will be the one she feels has the best chance of winning in the general election because she's so scared another Republican will replace President Bush. She asked Obama what made him think he could win. Another voter later told Obama because of his lack of experience, "by any stretch of the imagination, it would be a leap of faith to vote for you."

Obama often rejects the politics of "who's up, who's down," but he showed he was following the polls. He said he fares best among independent voters, that he has lower negative ratings than his Democratic rivals and is leading Republicans Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson in head-to-head matchups.

"I would include McCain, but John's having trouble right now, so that's not that big of a feat," Obama said of the Republican senator from Arizona, drawing laughter at the packed house party in the state capital attended by about 70 people.

Obama noted that in Mississippi, blacks make up more than a third of the state's population, but make up a smaller share of the electorate.

"If we just got African-Americans in Mississippi to vote their percentage of the population, Mississippi is suddenly a Democratic state," Obama said. He said Georgia would also turn Democratic and South Carolina would be in play.

Filed under: Uncategorized


Anonymous   January 5th, 2008 3:55 pm ET

Oh please……yeesh!

Greg Jones Cleveland Ohio   August 24th, 2007 3:50 pm ET

Al Sharpton..Jesse Jackson..Black Leaders;
Time to Lead for BARACK !
Greg 'Peace Song' Jones

I regularly listen to talk radio ranging from Air America, which is more progressive or Democratic…to Rush Limbaugh, Dennis Prager and Michael Medved which are Republican….and black radio particularly Warren Ballentine and Rev. Al Sharpton on the Radio 1 Network which is doing a great job of reaching the black community and creating an opportunity for voices nationwide to be heard.
I find it interesting to hear the different views from the hosts….as well as callers nationwide…on the subject of Barack Obama for President. Many of the hosts, even callers, on both Air America and the Republican shows voice massive approval and support of Barack Obama. It's actually quite refreshing to see and hear that so many white Americans are ready for a black president, basically because they feel he is the best choice regarding the issues of America and the world. Now, that's progress.
Then I listen to the Rev. Al Sharpton. First of all, let me state that I greatly admire Rev. Sharpton. The work that he does through his National Action Network is developing into becoming a mighty force in the black community nationwide and I feel that all blacks should be supportive of NAN. But when I listen to Rev. Sharpton talk about Barack Obama's presidential campaign I am totally amazed, shocked and beyond extremely disappointed. I'm almost embarrassed. Here we have Rev. Sharpton, who many blacks, including myself, look at as the number one leader for justice and empowerment in the black community…..and here we have a black man…Barack Obama…who is a very serious, capable, qualified candidate for President of the United States, supported by millions nationwide, with a realistic chance to enter the White House. But instead of rallying, supporting and stating this black historic opportunity as it is….Rev. Sharpton would rather not express his support of Obama at a ll !!! What's wrong with this picture ? I cannot believe that the leader(s) of the black community like Rev. Sharpton and Rev. Jesse Jackson are NOT supportive of what could be the first black president of the United States, ever? That is crazy !!!! (note: Rev. Jackson has quietly declared that he is supporting Obama but has done little or nothing to rally the black community….while polls show Hillary currently receiving more black support than Obama !…..That's CRAZY !) We, as blacks, know that in order for the black communities to rise up out of the muck and mire that permeates, we must all work together….as a family. We know that we always preach that we should be supportive of black achievement, black businesses, our black youth and each other.
If that is the case, that we are to be supportive of each other, which I do believe that to be true, then never has that need been more evident than now. ALL black people should be in absolute support of Barack Obama for President, not just because he's black, but because of his stance, capabilities and qualifications. This should be a period of rallying in the streets, shouting with pride that we have a true opportunity to change history and put a black man in the White House. And this rally cry should be lead by our leaders.
Yes, Rev. Al, Rev. Jackson, the NAACP…ALL black leaders should be sounding the trumpet to inspire all black people to vote for this historic change. Why aren't they ? Rev. Al states that he hasn't heard enough from Obama regarding the issues to make a decision. I find that a bit disingenuous seeing as to how I know where Obama stands on the various issues….and so do the millions of white Obama supporters. Rev. Al also says that Obama may not have enough experience. I find that to be a sadly interesting comment, particularly considering both Rev. Al and Rev. Jackson ran for President with absolutely NO political experience, but never stated that they were too new for the post. (NOTE: Rev. Al knows that Barack Obama has been a U.S. Senator for over 2 years…..and that Abraham Lincoln was a Senator for 2 years….and turned out to be considered one of the greatest Presidents of all time). Rev. Al also states that he is not hearing enough talk from Obama regarding specifically what he will do for the black community. Now common sense should tell all black folks that Obama has to play the political game. Keep in mind, he is running for president of the United States…that means everyone, black, white, hispanic, muslim, jews,and all others.
Obama cannot appear as if he will only be concerned with the black community's needs or he has absolutely no chance of winning. Maybe that's where Rev. Al went wrong with his campaign. Does Rev. Al think that Obama should be shouting 'ungawa…Black Power' during each debate ? There is no way that he could do that and expect to win. But once he is President, common sense tells us that he would be more receptive to the needs in the black community than any other candidate. That's just common sense based on what we DO know about Obama. Then some folks want to say he's not 'black enough'. That is the most pathetic thing I've ever heard. First of all, his name is Barack Obama……not like Jesse or Al. Secondly, Obama is half Kenyan…..that's pretty black !!! Sometimes I just wonder to myself, why aren't Rev. Al and Rev. Jackson leading the rally to support this historic cause ? Could they be jealous that Obama has already achieved more acceptance than they did during their campaign efforts ? I would hate to think that to be the fact. Or, could Rev. Al be hopeful that Hillary will win because he feels that she will assist him in his personal efforts if she is elected President ? I hope that too is not the case…..that would be selling out…..and I would never believe our leader(s) to be sell-outs. But for our leaders to not boisterously support Obama is like saying that they feel a white person would do better or more for the black communities, which history has proven is just not the case. Then what can it be ? That is the question.
I believe that Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. would be very proud and thankful to see that, in spite of all of the weights that have burdened and held the black community down, one black man has risen to such a level that he is a viable choice to be President of the United States in 2008. I believe that Rev. King would truly lead a powerful movement to change the tide of history. I envision marches, flags, signs, songs, t-shirts, buttons and millions of blacks proudly expressing jubilee for this opportunity to make a real change in our country.
WE SHALL OVERCOME….has been our motto for the black struggle for many generations and we are still struggling, in oh so many ways. And we will never overcome, until our leaders wake up, stop 'hatin' and vigorously lead the cause that will truly make a positive difference in our country, in our black community, and in the entire world. Rev. Al….Rev. Jackson….love ya' both….but on this subject… It's Time To LEAD !!!
(Greg 'Peace Song' Jones)
http://www.blacks4barack.homestead.com

——————————————————————————–

Steve, Tempe, Arizona   August 23rd, 2007 3:33 pm ET

How about a plan to get more eligible VOTERS (regardless of gender or race) to vote?

Kyu Reisch, Radcliff, Kentucky   August 22nd, 2007 9:42 am ET

Obama is dreaming. College subject is not a experience, it was a kind of foundation of knowledge. Why blind supporters didn't say he has a plenty of experience about foreign countries, because he was born as mixed blood, has been some countries when he was childhood. What a silly joke it is.
He doesn't realize how many people hate him? People can say openly they hate Hillary, but others can't, because all of BLACKS jump into the RACISM. White people are not that stupid so they just keep quiet and vote right candidate. Obama runs wild, he is less smart than Powell. I pitty The Obama's.

Marsha, Portland, OR   August 22nd, 2007 4:30 am ET

TO: James, Phoenix AZ

This may be one of the first times I agree with one of your comments! You said:

"The issue of race has become a greater issue as Obama as a real chance of becoming the democratic nominee - whereas previously Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton were never in serious contention.

2 QUESTIONS:

Is it ok for Obama to use his race as a reason why some black people will vote for him?"

NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.

"Would it be ok if another (white) candidate were to advocate people voting AGAINST Obama because of his race?"

NO, ABSOLUTELY NOT.

EXCELLENT POINTS.

Anonymous, LA   August 22nd, 2007 4:25 am ET

This man is such a contradiction - stop asking me if I'm black enough - but yet, I'm going to count on a turnout of the black vote. He is so egotistical. There are many African Americans that do not consider him "black enough" to come out and vote for him based on his skin color. Even if he is half-black.

Colin, pacific grove, cal   August 22nd, 2007 1:37 am ET

Will Hillary raise the white turnout? Quit playing the race card Obama. Run on your record and quit talking race. Don't lower yourself to jesse jackson or al sharptons level. You have a shot, don't blow it.

Lance, Monrovia, CA   August 22nd, 2007 12:18 am ET

Van,

Your comment is appreciated but my point is that Obama is a much more legit candidate than Hillary is. Why are all the Repubs predicting a Hillary win in the primaries? Because they know she can be beat.

But thank you for the compliment anyway. Hillary is still obviously much better than any Repub.

Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA   August 21st, 2007 11:39 pm ET

Ewe from TX wonders "if it is God's will for Obama to be the President". We're there, Beavis. That's what Bush thinks. No more.

Debi, Philadelphia, PA   August 21st, 2007 7:43 pm ET

I guess the question "Are you black enough," that Mr Obama wanted to put to rest will rise again if he gets the nomination and sounds like he is willing to answer yes then. I get more put off with this guy every other time he opens his mouth anymore.

Skel, Richmond, CA   August 21st, 2007 7:00 pm ET

Black voters will vote for him and more often in the future because he is black? What a racist! I guess racism is okay when it benefits Mr. Obama. Let’s face it…people in this country, of all races, don’t vote because they are lazy and stupid. How does he plan on changing that…pixie dust?

Fred, DC   August 21st, 2007 6:10 pm ET

To Lavelle,

I get so angry when Obama supporters recite talking points. GW Bush is the master of that. The Clinton v Obama debate is a productive one. But, instead of being rational, people make these asinine statements and back them up with nonsense. Some idiot on here actually said Obama has foreign policy experiance because he has a degree from Columbia University in Foreign Affairs. What the heck does that have to do with anything; people get degrees all the time? GW Bush has an MBA from Harvard, is he an example economic management? Please.

Obama is a good candidate, but democrats need only look at Ralph Nader to see what the problem is here. The election is a POPULARITY CONTEST!!! The person with the better ideas almost NEVER wins. Obama will lose if he gets the nomination, not because he isn't everything we might hope that he is, but because he cannot garnish enough support to win. This article about the black vote going up by 30% is ridiculous. Talk about "audacity of hope." Our community already votes 90% for the Dems.

And another thing, Obama supporters, not being for Obama does not mean someone is against him. We have always expected alot from those who ask for the black vote. Obama is great, but he has not been there long enough to DO anything. He has not earned it. Edwards has been there. Sharpton has been there. Clinton (both) has been there. Over time Obama may be there, but stop with all this blind support. It's why the Dems always lose on a national level.

Ewe, Carrollton, TX   August 21st, 2007 5:40 pm ET

I cannot believe the media would stoop this low to destroy Obama. If it is God's will for Obama to be the President Of this country, NOTHING can stop him.

VanReuter NY NY   August 21st, 2007 5:28 pm ET

Lance-

Who will you be supporting after Senator Obama drops out of the race? They could really use that fervor in Senator Clinton's California operation, where she's more than 30 points ahead.
I look forward to us being on the same side in a couple of months.

Van

David, Salinas, CA   August 21st, 2007 4:49 pm ET

Sadly, I must agree with Will from Ft Laud, FL. Ask Harold Ford. But I don’t think it’s the whole story. In the current climate, either Obama or Clinton could put moderate southern states in play, just as Richardson could help with contested states in the west. The Democrats don’t need to sweep the south. The Republicans do.

To Steve Wittlake of Blaine Washington:
There are no questions regarding Senator Obama’s “supposedly Muslim background” unless you rely on email smear campaigns for your information. Obama was baptized in the Trinity United Church of Christ.

Find out more about Senator Obama here:
http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

Steven in Charleston, SC   August 21st, 2007 4:48 pm ET

To James in Phoenix:

You raise a good question.

My two cents is this:

It is NOT okay for Obama's opponents to advocate voting against him because he is black.

And…it is NOT okay for him to say "Vote for me because I am black."

However, the reality is that some people will chose to vote for or against him for exactly that reason.

And while I don't think it is okay for him to use his race as the reason someone should vote for him, I think he can speak to issues of racism and marginalization with a level of credibility that others might not, and that might encourage and inspire a particular segment of the population that has previously sat out the elections to show up at the ballot box. And that is okay too.

Lavelle   August 21st, 2007 4:22 pm ET

Why does he say things like that. I mean who does he think he is? He thinks that black peolple and young people will come out to support his candidacy with those kind of numbers based on what? his message? experiance? charm? no, his race. and as a black person i want to know just who the heck he thinks he is.

Don't forget, that horrible Michael Steele, and that disgusting Clarence Thomas are also young and black. Obama clearly isn't either of those two, but he is not some spokesperson for the black community, or young people in america to support such a statement.

Posted By Everton, Reston : August 21, 2007 12:24 pm

^^^And where are you from England? or are you even black? See I think your rubbing too many elbows or looking for the acceptance of your peers. "Hey look at me I’m not voting for the black man because he's black" Well that’s good for you but what he said is true I call it the "Tiger Woods effect" think about that for a second. Now come back to the people see if you for a second think Obama is saying his black vote turn out will not be as big as he say it is, then you’ll just have to research on Obama and stop getting your information from news articles with a spin that is about is big as a tornado. Little do you know more blacks support Obama then the media is letting on. They look to set a divide amongst his shoe in voters then they say. I mean youll have a few people like yourself pouting on the outside looking in on history. Thats OK we will still welcome you back to the table once Obama is elected president. He represents all people both black and white. And one last thing "Clearance Thomas" come on he was a black republican with no clue as to his importance of being a black man holding a supreme court position. He slapped Mr.Marshall dead in the face with his actions. Obama is his own man stop the unnecessary judging.

Zack, Boston, MA   August 21st, 2007 3:23 pm ET

Pat wrote above: "The guy may be onto something. Currently, I'm a hillary supporter. But, if he can back his theory with hard polling numbers, I may change."

So you'll vote in accordance with OTHERS' opinions but won't vote on YOURS? Try thinking for yourself instead of jumping on whatever bandwagon is rolling by. Vote how YOU think. Forget the polls!

Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA   August 21st, 2007 3:12 pm ET

True. The downside is that Obama as either the presidential or VP nominee guarantees more voters who, for whatever good or bad reasons (inexperience and racism respectively), will flock to the polls.

James, Phoenix AZ   August 21st, 2007 3:02 pm ET

The issue of race has become a greater issue as Obama as a real chance of becoming the democratic nominee - whereas previously Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton were never in serious contention.

2 QUESTIONS:

Is it ok for Obama to use his race as a reason why some black people will vote for him?

Would it be ok if another (white) candidate were to advocate people voting AGAINST Obama because of his race?

VanReuter NY NY   August 21st, 2007 2:59 pm ET

It would be great if he could increase the turn out of youth and minority voters to help the democrats win the presidency in 2008, but at a static 20-25% in the national polls, and the likelihood that 75% of the other candidates support, when they drop out, will probably go to Senator Clinton,
means he would be helping someone else's election.

Van

Steve Wittlake Blaine Washington   August 21st, 2007 2:19 pm ET

The people in this country have not progressed enough in their consideration of civil rights of other nationalities of all types including white on white to elect either Obama or Clinton to the Presidency or Vice Presidency. Even if you negate the Civil Rights question Clinton and Obama both carry a ton of baggage. Whitewater and the fact Clinton is a woman will definitely be a problem for her. The fact that Obama is a Black and has not settled the questions regarding his supposedly Muslim background will hurt him bad. Anyone that has every lived in the South knows that neither person can carry the South. Hillary because she is a woman and Obama because he is black.
Another problem is that how many people in this county are willing to turn over command of the military to either Clinton or Obama with its absolute and total command by the President. The power that Bush has as commander in chief of the military
is a perfect example. The only person I will vote for is someone who has had combat experience such as McCain but not limited to McCain. Someone that has been in war and knows what war is.

Steven in Charleston, SC   August 21st, 2007 2:05 pm ET

I think Sen. Obama has a point — if he is the nominee, and if the African-American community is energized by him, he will increase voter turnout.

But I disagree with a couple aspects of what he said. First, he is not the only candidate who has the potential to "redraw" the electoral map — Guliani, should he be the GOP nominee, has a decent chance of taking New York and NJ, traditionally Democratic strongholds, and states like California could also be put into play.

Additionally, I think Sen. Obama's impact on voter turnout would be the same regardless of whether he is the Presidential or the Vice-presidential nominee, so while there is certainly a potential turnout benefit to having him on the Democratic ticket, it isn't necessarily an argument for giving him the nomination.

Finally, while I know that poll numbers can change, the reality is that Sen. Clinton polls ahead of Sen. Obama in most polls of African-Americans. Whether that automatically translates into voter turnout is, I know, debatable, but I would be more comfortable with Sen. Obama's "guarantee" if he was polling significantly ahead of the other candidates with AA voters.

Jacob Benesch New York, New York   August 21st, 2007 1:59 pm ET

The election is irrelevant because none of the candidates really carry about the people, they only care about the views of the corrupt political parties that they represent. therefore i am not voting in the coming election.

Pat, Huntington NY   August 21st, 2007 1:54 pm ET

The guy may be onto something. Currently, I'm a hillary supporter. But, if he can back his theory with hard polling numbers, I may change.

lavelle   August 21st, 2007 1:41 pm ET

He is so true, the Clintons gloat about how they have African American support. But see they truly dont know or understand the power of black leaders and how blacks will quickly follow Barack if he is that close to becoming president! He will win hands down unless the powers that be interfere and stop that! Go Obama

Jay Charlotte, NC   August 21st, 2007 1:40 pm ET

I agree with Barack that younger and minority voters will increase drastically reshaping the map between blues geting the outside and the reds getting all of the middle.

Oh, but I can already hear the haters coming. They're just voting for Obama cause he's black, he doesn't have enough experience, and so on.

Kris, Minneapolis, MN   August 21st, 2007 1:06 pm ET

It's a long shot, I don't think Obama understands the self hate still embedded in the mind set of about 50% of the blacks in this country, they still, deep down, feel inferior, the affect of slave mentality has not worn off; if it had the equality gap would have been closing a lot fast since the civil rights movement. There are just as many blacks racist against their own people as there are whites racist aganist them. (I'm black btw)

Dave, Oakland, CA   August 21st, 2007 12:28 pm ET

Dream on Mr Obama, dream on. Nobody has found the key to getting young voters to vote and I highly doubt that being black magically makes young voters or black voters come out in droves.

Maybe when there is a solid 3rd party voters will come out in droves but for now it will probably stay the way it is. The people have grown weary of the two party partisan politics. Too bad the politicians don't care how the people truly feel.

Everton, Reston   August 21st, 2007 12:24 pm ET

Why does he say things like that. I mean who does he think he is? He thinks that black peolple and young people will come out to support his candidacy with those kind of numbers based on what? his message? experiance? charm? no, his race. and as a black person i want to know just who the heck he thinks he is.

Don't forget, that horrible Michael Steele, and that disgusting Clarence Thomas are also young and black. Obama clearly isn't either of those two, but he is not some spokesperson for the black community, or young people in america to support such a statement.

Eugene Minter, Kennett Square, PA   August 21st, 2007 12:12 pm ET

Obama absolutely has his calculations correct. His winning the nomination or even being on the ticket would spring African Americans and young voters into action in a way this country has never seen before. The only thing that will help Republicans keep the White house is if a Democratic candidate other than Obama win the nomination and subsequently choose to alienate African American voters by leaving Obama or another African American off the ticket. The African American voting block (in massive numbers) is the only way a Democratic candidate can win the presidency. Can you imagine what will happen if this voting block decides to stay home.

Will Ft Laud, FL   August 21st, 2007 12:05 pm ET

Obama would also raise the rebel-flag voter turnout. Georgia, Alabama, Mississipi - lots of previously apathetic voters would have (in their mind) something to vote against.

Sad but true. (Having grown up in rural Georgia I knew first hand many of this type "The South will rise again")

Obama's advantage is also his disadvantage.

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