September 11th, 2007
06:01 PM ET
7 years ago

Thompson catches Giuliani in GOP race

Thompson is in a statistical dead heat with Rudy Giuliani, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Five days after he officially jumped into the Republican race for the White House, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson finds himself in a statistical dead heat with frontrunner Rudy Giuliani, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Tuesday.

The former New York City mayor garners 28 percent nationally among registered Republicans while Thompson is only one point behind at 27 percent - well within the poll's 5 percentage point margin of error. In a similar poll taken in August, Giuliani registered 29 percent while Thompson, then not yet an official presidential candidate, was at 22 percent. (See full poll results [PDF])

CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider notes, "Thompson has the edge among evangelical Republicans and especially among his fellow southerners - that's where Thompson has made the biggest gains."

Specifically, Thompson now holds the advantage among men, southerners, older voters (age 50 and over) and ideological conservatives. Conversely, Giuliani leads among women, voters in the Northeast and Midwest, younger voters (under 50) and self-described GOP moderates.

While the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll shows a statistical dead heat, other recent national polls indicate Giuliani continues to hold a lead over Thompson. A CBS/New York Times poll released Monday showed Giuliani with a 5 point lead over Thompson, 27 percent to 22 percent. Meanwhile, a USAToday/Gallup poll out Monday has Giuliani with a 12 point lead, 34 percent to 22 percent.

Full story

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: CNN Polls • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (76 Responses)
  1. Robert Austin, Texas

    Freddie Thompson would be the easiest to beat in the general election .. that's why I'm for him!

    September 11, 2007 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  2. Frank Smigelski, Belton, SC

    WOW! How Fred could catch up in the polls overnight with candidates who have been campaigning for the last year is truly a feat. He seems to be too polarizing though. I think the Republicans would have a better chance of success putting up a moderate like Giuliani who can reach OVER party lines. We've learned that the conservative base is a force to be reckoned with in American politics, but if the Republicans dumped them and grabbed Rudy, I see an absolute (and sad) victory for the GOP.

    September 11, 2007 05:50 pm at 5:50 pm |
  3. Richard Orlando, FL

    There is one major issue that disqualifies Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani for president. They both foolishly agreed with Bush's commutation of Scooter Libby, and Thompson even went as far as heading a fundraiser for Libby's defense. If you cannot respect the rule of law in this country, you do not deserve to hold the highest office in this nation (period). It would be more of the same Bush nonsense for us all. No thank you, gentlemen.

    September 11, 2007 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  4. Scott, Sacramento, CA

    Land-line phone polls, the ones accepted by the media as the standard, are very far from being accurate. It blows me away when a poll involving a few more than 300 people (and supposedly representing the entire voting population of the US) claims to have a margin of error of 3%. Was this number just made up out of thin air? The margin of error is -always- up to 100%, because it depends entirely upon who you end up randomly calling.

    A poll such as this one is especially innaccurate, because a large group of voters for the 2008 election are excluded. In order to participate, you must have been registered as Republican in the 2004 election. That excludes everyone who was 17 or younger at the time (everyone who is 18-20 now)... and more importantly, it excludes most anyone who did not support George W. Bush and the neo-conservative agenda. Ron Paul supporters never show up on these polls because they most certainly would not have had any interest to register Republican and vote for Bush in 2004. And so they are not heard from. Meanwhile, polls without said restrictions consistently show Ron Paul in the lead.

    September 11, 2007 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  5. Josh Maloney, Oakland, CA

    This is as close as its ever going to get for Republican front runners. They don't stand a chance in 2008.

    September 11, 2007 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
  6. Cable King Pittsburgh Pa

    Double Yikes!! Fred Thompson is even scarier than John McCain.

    September 11, 2007 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  7. Laura - Tulsa OK

    Congratulations, Fred ! After so many years of the Bush,Clinton,Bush monopoly, Sen. Thompson is like a breath of freash air for conservatives who want to secure our nation.

    September 11, 2007 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  8. Edwin Kennedy, Stoughton, Wisconsin

    With a five (5) point margin of error either way, this is a very weak poll and one would be safer to trust polls with a 3 to 3.5 margin of error.

    The margin of error is related to the size of the sample. Small sample have large margins of error because of vast distances between data points.

    Having said that, I am hopeful that the poll will reflect a rapidly rising trend. Rudy is not the right guy for the GOP at this point in time.

    September 11, 2007 07:15 pm at 7:15 pm |
  9. Mindy, Traverse CIty, MI

    answer to john g who's wondering about CNN Op. polls.

    I believe that these poll survey windows pop up as you are perusing this site. I have seen them, they are approx. two inch by two inch white windows that ask you if you want fill out a survey/. Of course, I close them, because they tend to pop up at the most inconvenient time. But I think that's what these polls are.

    September 11, 2007 07:28 pm at 7:28 pm |
  10. Corliss, Springfield, Mass.

    John in Seattle –

    Ron Paul is too tempermental and emotional to be President. And he can't be serious about abolishing the CIA, FBI, and IRS... give it up, Ron. You're fine as a maverick Congressmen, but Americans still want a dignified figurehead for a President, someone who looks Presidential , like - hmmm .. FRED DALTON THOMPSON !

    September 11, 2007 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  11. Joyce M. Detroit MI

    Congratulations Fred, we knew you could do it – one week and you're running away with the polls.

    September 11, 2007 07:35 pm at 7:35 pm |
  12. COLE , ANN ARBOR MI

    Frank above said someone who reaches OVER party lines will succeed over someone who's a purist.

    But don't you think , Frank that both Dems and Cons want their candidate to be purely left or right? The talk shows all say that Rudy doesn't please the Cons because he's lax on abortion issues. What think ye?

    September 11, 2007 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  13. Tomas Today, Austin, Texas

    Maybe he can stay ahead of the "None of the Above" category, leading the Bush clones for the upcoming 2008
    Refu!#uplicans's. Get us some candidates on both sides with some brains, who really care and work for THE AMERICAN PEOPLE!!!!!!

    September 11, 2007 08:33 pm at 8:33 pm |
  14. Robert TN(constitutionalist)

    I want whatever kool-aid you Fred Heads are drinking. Breathe of fresh air? Oh geez give me a break. He is spewing out the same old rheotoric as GW. He is a lobbyist? Just on that alone he shouldnt be trusted. Anyone with half a brain could see that. RON PAUL 08' Defender of what is left of our constitution and bill of rights. Thanks GW. Peace out folks

    September 11, 2007 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  15. PollM

    Not sure Rudy Giuliani will get too far with this race, he messed up on 9/11

    If the primaries were held today, and the nominees for the Republican party were Rudy Giuliani & Fred Thompson, who would you vote for..... ------–> http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=466

    September 11, 2007 09:16 pm at 9:16 pm |
  16. Cary - Lowell, IN

    "It's time for people who believe they have a stake in Western civilization and its traditions to get a little backbone – even if it offends somebody."

    -Fred Dalton Thompson

    September 11, 2007 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  17. Jeff Old Bridge,NJ

    One bad actor catches another.Seems like the Republicas can't sort out the bad from the worst.WAY TO GO!

    September 11, 2007 09:29 pm at 9:29 pm |
  18. Cable King Pittsburgh Pa

    Just saw a picture on the boob tube of Mr. and Mrs. Thompson. Mrs. makes Mr. look
    ancient. "Ancient" will not translate into many votes.

    September 11, 2007 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  19. Arthur, Immokalee, Florida

    The more I read the polls, the happier I feel for having taken a statistic class. It's all about: MEDIA POWER and POLITICAL GAMBLING. When will the media give an in depth documentary on polls? Ok. I think I am asking for too much.

    September 11, 2007 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
  20. Kurt (Drumheller, AB CANADA)

    Bill (Charleston SC): Not only did Iraq possess WMD, but they used them on their own people.

    Yes.... in the 1980s with the full knowledge of Western governments. Iraq did NOT possess WMDs after the first Gulf War and his nuclear programme was NOT active at the time of the invasion. Iraq was NOT a threat to the West.

    That's exactly the reason many of the ex rulers of Iraq were convicted and hanged.

    In part, but then might I remind you that these were incidents that occured in the 1980s when Iraq was an American client state and Hussein an ally. Not much of a problem then it seems.

    Stupid is not those who remember recent history for what it is, rather stupid are those who revise history for their own political purpose.

    How about people who continue to look at history with ideological blinders such as yourself?

    If the shoe fits, which it probably does you, then wear it.

    Mr. Kettle, there's a Mr. Pot on line 1 who has a message for you....

    As for Thompson in a statistical tie with Rudy, I'll ask you Americans for the sake of your international reputation (already tattered and torn but perhaps not unmendable), don't support and even lazier version of George W. Bush.

    September 11, 2007 10:00 pm at 10:00 pm |
  21. M, Rome GA.

    $10 says the future Madame President sends him a "Thank you" card if he snags the Republican Nomination.

    Although it's a little disturbing that this guy's knowledge of the Middle East appears to be even worse than Mr. Bush's.

    September 11, 2007 10:03 pm at 10:03 pm |
  22. Mike, North Texas

    Republicans? Democrats? What does it matter? They are all basically the same. We need candidates who actually cares about America, not the DC scene. Find a Pres. Candidate who will secure our borders, reduce the size of government, protect our Constitution, reduce taxes across the board, and hold people responsible for the actions. Hmm, maybe I should run – I don't see anyone out there like that.

    September 11, 2007 10:32 pm at 10:32 pm |
  23. romi s. - west chicago, il

    FRED THOMPSON:

    Kill the Iraqis
    Secure the Border
    Punch the Hippies

    September 11, 2007 10:41 pm at 10:41 pm |
  24. Matthew Doyle, Columbus Ohio

    Hopefully Fred builds on this mojo and continues to gain speed. He is our hope for the future and a leader that will bring pride back. The antiwar canidates will fall when exposed to a real leader.

    Go Fred!!

    September 11, 2007 10:42 pm at 10:42 pm |
  25. Olie M., Arlington , Va.

    Whew ! That was fast. fast freddie

    September 11, 2007 10:47 pm at 10:47 pm |
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