October 1st, 2007
11:22 AM ET
7 years ago

New Iowa polls show key state up for grabs

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Clinton and Obama each hold leads in new Iowa polls.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Three months before Iowa voters officially kick off the 2008 presidential primary process, new polls released this weekend indicate the Hawkeye State is up for grabs in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, holds a 6 percentage point edge (30-24 percent) over Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, in the latest American Research Group (ARG) poll, while Obama edges out Clinton by four points in a Newsweek poll (28-24 percent).

Meanwhile, former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards comes in a close third in both polls - registering 19 percent in the ARG poll and 22 percent in the Newsweek poll. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson places fourth in both surveys with 10 percent. Every other Democratic White House hopeful registered single digits in both polls.

Both polls surveyed likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers. The ARG poll, conducted between September 26-29, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The Newsweek poll, conducted between September 26-27, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points. (Newsweek also surveyed all Iowa Democrats - in that poll Clinton leads Obama 31 to 25 percent.)

Why do the latest Iowa surveys report such different conclusions? CNN Polling Director Keating Holland explains polling in the early-voting state "can be the statistical equivalent of looking for a needle in a haystack."

"Typically, only about 100,000 people participate in caucuses out of a population of roughly 3 million in the state," Holland said. "It's what makes the Iowa caucuses inherently unpredictable - and it's not surprising to find polls that show different results."

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (37 Responses)
  1. Tired O Them, Tampa, FL

    Hey Q. Christian Atlanta GA . . .

    If you hit the ENTER key while typing, you can start a new paragraph. It's like, magic.

    If you want to elect the same old guard like Hillary and her band of merry lobbyists to the White House again, then YOU are the one wasting a vote. Plus, Hillary will have us in Iran before her first year is up.

    She is a hawkish republican in a democratic pantsuit.

    October 1, 2007 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  2. laurinda, ny

    Q CHRISTIAN, GEORGIA.. AS A DEMOCRAT I AGREE WITH YOU. ALTHOUGH, I STILL DON'T LIKE THIS $5000 PER BABY IDEA.

    October 1, 2007 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
  3. Coach Haughton

    Now the Obama nuts won't want to look at Iowa polls, because they are "meaningless" right????

    More and more people are learning this guy is an empty suit. Nice candidate, but no rational or sane person can actually believe he can convince Repubs and Independants, when he can't convince Democrats. Hillary 08 and Hillary 12. "America wants change" my foot. hahaha

    NObama 08

    Posted By Fred, Reston VA : October 1, 2007 11:33 am

    I just want to say that people like you, and the rest of the hillbillys represent everything weak in the democratic party. People like you who rally behind the media choice rather than good liberal logic kept republicans in control of the house for the last 2 decades.

    Why is it so hard for you to get over the nostalgia of the clinton years?
    Be brave and make the right vote for your children.

    I love bill clinton and it would make me smile to see him back in the whitehouse.

    I Think the desire to one up the republicans is driving many smart people to make the wrong choice for America.

    Obama 2008!

    October 1, 2007 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  4. Bea, Hoboken, NJ

    The only poll that has Obama ahead in Iowa is Newsweek, Hillary is ahead in all other polls:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html

    October 1, 2007 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
  5. Patrick, Naples, Fl

    Why are we so focused on Hillary and Obama. They are not the only options. Hillary is definitely a no go, we need change. Obama is probably not experienced enough. What's wrong with Joe Biden. The man is intelligent and takes a realistic approach to the Iraq situation. I'd like to know more about his politics, but the media focuses only on Hillary and Obama. It is evident by the debates that the public is being steered, by the media, towards Hillary and Obama as though they are the only viable candidates.

    October 1, 2007 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  6. Len, sparks nv

    I have heard that polls do not include cell phones, which leaves out the young people, and also likely caucuse voters are those who have voted in the last 3 elections. This also discounts the youth vote. Since the youth vote leans Obama, how in the world do we know how the vote will really turn out? I think every report of polls should include their methodology so we can know how accurate they might be. Newsweek poll also showed how Obama came out way on top if the first and second choices were counted. That shows the true measure of support for him is bigger than for Clinton.

    October 1, 2007 08:27 pm at 8:27 pm |
  7. laurinda,ny

    I agree with Chris from Pensacola, Florida. It certainly makes more sense than listening to these changing polls. Up, down, up, down

    October 1, 2007 08:42 pm at 8:42 pm |
  8. Brianna, McEwen, TN

    When both Barack Obama and John McCain turned their back on my brother a United States Sailor abused in boot camp, Senator Clinton stepped in and guided my lost Sailor back to shore. If it was your brother, son or even cousin wouldn't you want someone who cares as much about their welfare as you do? Thank you Senator Clinton.

    October 1, 2007 09:55 pm at 9:55 pm |
  9. Louis, St. Louis, MO

    My 2+2 cents:

    1. Obama is a hypocrite – go digging his past out; He did not even want to pay a fine until the time he decided to run for President;

    2. Obama will never make to the WH even if he wins the nomination – you figure it out;

    3. Is Hillary that good? May or may not be. At least she is a solid A-; Unfortunately she is a female – that would drop the grade to B+;

    4. The best shot perhaps is John Edwards if only "classificatio" is considered, but he is not going anywhere;

    Sadly it looks like the Republicans are going to keep the WH.

    October 1, 2007 11:32 pm at 11:32 pm |
  10. A. Thomas, New York, NY

    Why the CNN 2008 election centers still shows the Researh 2000 poll of July 22, 2008 for Iowa, which shows Edwards was leading?

    There have been 11 polls done on Iowa since, and Hillary is leading over Obama & Edwards!

    October 2, 2007 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  11. al, San Francisco, CA

    Obama will likely pour an unportional amount of his huge money raised into Iowa to beat Hillary. Even if he is successful to have a narrow lead in Iowa, the win is just psychological for Obama, because he will be wiped out by Hillary in ALL other states (except Illinois and Idaho), where Obama is behind Hillary by more than 20 points.

    October 3, 2007 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  12. Mike Dover, NH

    Ron Paul stands alone among Republicans. He speaks the truth, folks. Finally, an honest, intelligent man who is supported by people, not corporations. Please look into him. He wants freedom for individuals, peace, a responsible monetary policy and so much more.
    http://www.ronpaulhq.com

    -Mike
    Dover, NH

    October 17, 2007 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
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