October 30th, 2007
03:37 PM ET
3 years ago

Polls: Clinton, Romney in lead, Huckabee makes gains

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Massachusetts in the lead in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The poll by the American Research Group shows former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Arkansas, moving up to second place behind Romney in Iowa and making some ground in South Carolina and New Hampshire.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton maintains her front runner status in all three states.

Republicans

                 Iowa        NH           SC
Romney            27%        30%          29%
Giuliani          16%        23%          23%
McCain            14%        17%          13%
Huckabee          19%         7%           5%
Thompson           8%         5%          10%

Democrats

                 Iowa        NH          SC
Clinton           32%        40%         41%
Obama             22%        22%         19%
Edwards           15%        10%         18%
Richardson         7%         5%          1%
Biden              5%         4%          6%
Sample Size: 600 likely voters
Sample Dates: Oct. 26-29, 2007
Margin of error: +/-4%

– CNN Political Producer Xuan Thai


Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Polls • South Carolina
soundoff (42 Responses)
  1. Mike, lansing, MI

    How can Giuliani think he has a strong chance? These are the states that set the bar and he is not leading any of the three states yet or has. Whats his plan? I think the media wants him to win and keeps him looking good in the spot-light, but the voters know better.

    October 30, 2007 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  2. TRM

    Any Republican will do!
    http://democratequalssocialist.wordpress.com/

    October 30, 2007 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  3. William Courtland, Waterford, Ontario

    Do they individually poll the registered Republicans and Democrats, what of independents?

    October 30, 2007 10:14 pm at 10:14 pm |
  4. a.thomas, ny, ny

    The Obama supporters were joyous with the Iowa U poll (Oct 17-24) a few days ago that showed Obama was only 2 pts behind Hillary (28 vs 26). Now these Obama supporters cry foul about the more recent ARG poll (oct 26-29)showing Obama was 10 pts behind Hillary (32 vs 22).

    If the poll result favours Obama, they accept it. But if the poll result disfavour Obama, they dont accept it. They are simply in denial.

    The fact is that the Iowa poll used a small sample size of 306 (vs 600 for ARG poll), and thus the IOwa U poll result was not that realiable. The ARG poll result is consistent with other states' polls that show that Hillary has increased her leads over Obama in recent weeks.

    October 30, 2007 10:37 pm at 10:37 pm |
  5. Liberal Chic

    Fred, Reston VA :

    Hear, hear.

    This poll was done by American Research Group. The other poll which showed more tight ranges was by the Univerity of Iowa.

    I am a Clinton supporter, but I do wonder if the University of Iowa poll has more validity because it was done by in-staters who know their own.

    On the other hand, I think Hillary Clinton can rise above coming in second in Iowa. But I hope she gets it together even more before January and we won't have to find out.

    October 30, 2007 11:39 pm at 11:39 pm |
  6. Terry, El Paso, TX

    Everyone believes in polls when their guy is leading. When your guy is in the dumpster, you can't accept the fact that most people simply don't agree with you on most things.

    Polling is a pretty developed science, and all marketing as well as all politics is based on it. All of you hayseeds have to accept the fact that the PhDs, statisticians, and CEOs who base their fortunes and their futures on the science of polling know a lot more about it than you do.

    Can polls be wrong? Yes, there is a margin of error, like in meteorology. Sometimes the weatherman is wrong, but if the weather service says floods are coming do you plan a picnic?

    Are they just a bunch of BS? Not according to all the people who have studied it.

    Are false poll numbers released by politicians? Well, they lie about everything else.

    The simple truth is that most Americans prefer Clinton on one side and Giuliani/Romney on the other. The rest of you are just out of step. (I'm a Richardson fan myself. Give 'em hell, Bill.

    October 31, 2007 12:21 am at 12:21 am |
  7. Val Davydov, Agawam, MA

    Nice numbers, for Romney that is.

    October 31, 2007 12:30 am at 12:30 am |
  8. Mrs. America

    I don't think Romney can buy himself a general election win. If Giuliani is the nominee, it will be a good race between him and Clinton. If Romney is the nominee, we might as well get used to saying Pres. Clinton again.

    October 31, 2007 12:57 am at 12:57 am |
  9. Chris, Toledo, OH

    No mention of Ron Paul...incensed...

    October 31, 2007 08:18 am at 8:18 am |
  10. AT, San Francisco, CA

    The Obama supporters are in denial. They dont like the more recent poll of ARG showing Hillary is ahead of Obama by 10 points, while these people were reecetpive to the Iowa poll of last week showing Hillary ahead only by 2 pts.

    The fact is that the Iowa U poll has a very small sample size of 306, and therefore its result is not reliable.

    The ARG poll result is consistent with the Rasmussen poll result of earlier week that showed Hillary was ahead by 12 pts (33 vs 21) over Obama.

    October 31, 2007 09:25 am at 9:25 am |
  11. Hank, KC, MO

    This, as usual, is a manufactured poll. They leave people off on purpose. that's why you can't account for 20%. And for those that actually think these media polls are correct just remember how all the polls favored John Kerry yet Bush won again. the media continues to try and sway the public. also, today, it was reported that respected oddsmaker William Hill has set the odds for Ron Paul at 12/1. that's putting him in a showdown with Rudy and ahead of McCain, Edwards. yet I don't see his name above. bias.

    October 31, 2007 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  12. RuthieM

    And there they go again, digging deep into fish barrels for another poll that supposedly contradicts the University of Iowa poll. Hogwash.

    October 31, 2007 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  13. Veteran of OIFI&2 Washington State

    All polling debate aside, I do find it odd that Clinton has such a large margin over the nearest competitors, I'm an undecided voter at this point and I must say, I have serious doubts as to whether or not she can run this country, She has no clear plan on Iraq and seems as distant from that conflict as most of the other candidates. At this point if I had to vote for someone I'd give it to Stephen Colbert, he's intelligent, educated, appears to be more knowledgeable about the issues than some of the "true" candidates, and he isn't afraid to say something that might upset people.

    October 31, 2007 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  14. David Wright, Mt. Sidney, Virginia

    Go Mitt! Romney will make a fool of Mrs. Clinton in the debates. (At least from the perspective of citizens with intelligence.)

    October 31, 2007 10:33 pm at 10:33 pm |
  15. E, Stone Mtn. GA

    Until the first votes are cast and verified accordingly, then a poll is just a snap shop of an opinion for a certain period of time. Hey, we can all change our thoughts in a matter of moments...

    November 2, 2007 07:45 pm at 7:45 pm |
  16. Ken Howell Chapel Hill NC

    You can dance if you want to . . . GO ROMNEY! GO ROMNEY! GO ROMNEY!

    November 6, 2007 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  17. Ron West, Fort Worth, TX

    Your poll numbers for Iowa, NH & SC are biased and wrong. Try asking again with all the candidates listed by name. That is if you are interested in truth rather than propaganda.

    November 6, 2007 11:40 pm at 11:40 pm |
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