November 12th, 2007
09:30 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Clinton lead over Obama shrinking

Clinton's lead over Obama in New Hampshire has grown tighter according to the latest poll.

(CNN)–Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has seen her lead over fellow White House hopeful, Senator Barack Obama, D-Illinois, grow tighter.

In the latest poll of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters from the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, the New York senator had 36 percent support, to Obama's 25 percent. Last month, Clinton led Obama by 21 percentage points according to Marist.

In the latest poll, former North Carolina senator John Edwards had 14 percent support, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, had 6 percent.

On the Republican side, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney's support over his closest rival, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani grew as well.

In a poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters in October, Romney had a 6 percentage point lead. That number has increased to 11 percent according to Marist's latest poll.

In the latest poll, Romney got 33 percent support, to Giuliani's 22 percent. Senator John McCain, R-Arizona, had 13 percent support in the latest poll, with Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee both registering 7 percent support. Former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson had 5 percent support in the latest poll.

The poll involved telephone telephone interviews conducted November 2-6, with 458 likely Democratic voters and 372 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire. The margins of sampling error were 5 percentage points for Democrats, and 5.5 points for Republicans.

A poll released by the Boston Globe on Sunday, also showed both Clinton and Romney leading the latest poll of likely New Hampshire voters.

In a poll of likely Granite state Democratic primary voters, Clinton registered the support of 35 percent of those polled, to Obama's 21 percent. John Edwards was third with 15 percent support, and Richardson was fourth with 10 percent.

On the GOP side, Romney led Giuliani 32 percent to 20 percent, with McCain in third at 17 percent. Huckabee came in fourth with 5 percent support, and Thompson came in fifth with 3 percent support.

The Globe surveyed 400 likely Democratic voters, and 404 likely Republican voters in New Hampshire between November 2 to November 7. The Globe said it had a margin of error for each party sub-sample of plus or minus 4.9 percent.

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- CNN Political Desk Editor Jamie Crawford

soundoff (143 Responses)

    The size of Hillary lead over her rivals is constant. Whether the lead vacilate a few points is really insignificant. In the vernacular of the streets, size doesn't matter. As I have said on numerous occasions, unless Hillary do a dastardly deed or commit a serious faux pas she is the Democratic nominee, it is nearly a fait accompli

    November 11, 2007 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  2. Jim in Orlando, FL

    What still defies logic is how the candidate with more corruption in her past than the next five candidates combined, and less record of accomplishment than any one of the next five, is even a blip on the radar, much less the front-runner. Hopefully the fix isn't in, the trend of the polls will continue, and Hillary will just "Howard Dean" into oblivion.

    November 11, 2007 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  3. Mark Jeffery Koch Cherry Hill, New Jersey

    As a Democrat I am delighted to see Barack Obama drawing closer to Clinton. Hillary Clinton is a polarizing figure whose only convictions are lying and power. Obama has consistently spoken, where ever he has traveled across the country, of bringing the country together, and not demonizing people whose political views are different but instead working together to find common ground. America needs someone to unite us all for the challenges ahead. Hillary Clinton is definitely not that person. Barack Obama is. I am eagerly awaiting my chance to cast a vote in the upcoming primary for Obama.

    November 11, 2007 11:28 am at 11:28 am |

    Gold always prevails over Glitter, Steak over Sizzle, Substance over Style.

    But will the Dream beat the Deception?

    November 11, 2007 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  5. A. Harrison, Atlanta Georgia

    All these attacks and accusations are the cause. I wish January 2008 would get here already.

    November 11, 2007 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  6. Karen,ny

    Hillary is trying, but it sure isn't easy because there are obstacles in the way, but if she is right than at least she feels somewhat comfortable with who she is dealing with. I think that she should be nicer to Obama because she kind of knows him and his people. So with that comment I will write latter. I think Hillary is sorry that she was mean to the Obama people.

    November 11, 2007 11:32 am at 11:32 am |
  7. Richmond, Va

    The tide is starting to shift, this is a sign of things to come.

    Fired up and Ready to Go, Obama 08!

    November 11, 2007 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  8. TO AZ

    The Clintons left the White House in disgrace the first time in office, people of their age do not change they are falling in the numbers because more and more people see they are socialist and do not stand for the American people. They are going to pickup where Bush left off and invade Iran, and push for the (cfr)/NAU

    November 11, 2007 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  9. Dave, Atlanta, GA

    It's still a good two months to Iowa. Polls fluctuate all the time there's no point in reading too much into a small shift in the polls.

    Obama 08.

    November 11, 2007 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  10. mike, dallas, TX


    I was elated to see Biden rebuking Wolf Blitzer as he tried to manufacture a controversy between Obama and himself where there is none. It was a refreshing moment. Do I think Wolf will remeber this as a lesson? I doubt it.

    November 11, 2007 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
  11. MacKenzie, Philadelphia, PA

    Way to go Barack! Keep up the momentum.

    Fired up and ready to go.

    November 11, 2007 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
  12. Wang

    Hmm. Guess the Hillary people will have to stop shoving poll numbers down our throats now and try to find something else to fill the blog comment board with. Maybe something useful this time.

    November 11, 2007 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  13. Marion, ATL, GA

    Considering Obama started from 0 nationally a year ago, while Clinton had 15 years (or did she say 35 years) head start, its obvious who is winning.

    Time to turn the page with change we can believe in

    November 11, 2007 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  14. LinnieFB, Corona,CA

    The voters in New voters around the country, are realizing that Obama offers the best hope to solve our myriad of problems. They also see that Clinton is politics-as-usual, and should she be elected, will keep the country divided and to use her favorite word "FIGHTING!"

    It's a new day....time to move forward and leave the past behind.

    November 11, 2007 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  15. Diamond

    As a NH Republican For Obama, I ask fellow Republicans and Independents to join me in turning up Ms. Clinton's heat against her. Let's vote Obama.

    Life-long Republican, Monica Green hasn’t always been a partisan voter, but she seems to have always voted for the candidate that wins- voted for Bill Clinton twice, voted George Bush twice and now she's caucusing for Barack along with hundreds of other Republicans. Read it here and be fired up:

    Here's Obama's MOST FORCEFUL statement yet, on the ELECTABILITY factor. Read it and get fired up! even more:,sweet110907.article

    November 11, 2007 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  16. Rob, Los Angeles, CA

    I love how it says Clinton's "lead over rival" shrinking on the front's like they can't even state his name for fear someone might read it and endorse him...

    November 11, 2007 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  17. Rex, Houghton, Michigan

    Clinton having questions planted in town hall meetings in Iowa allowing her to give great preplanned answers and using her husband to defend her every time slips up is really showing American her true colors—an ethically challenged person who cannot defend herself in a political arena. So she is slipping in polls… While I don’t give polls very much credit as polls showed Gore and later Kerry defeating Bush only to be proven wrong, there is strong reason to believe she is not the right person to lead our country.

    November 11, 2007 12:13 pm at 12:13 pm |
  18. Emmanuel, VA

    OBAMA: This is for you.

    Row, row, row your boat gently down to White House.

    Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily American Dream is alive.

    Its crunch time and the polls are crunching as expected. Please please please Obama winning the elections should be no shocker for those who know what is really going on.

    The best is yet to come, please keep your eyes on thursdays debate in Nevada, and that is if CNN plays fair and realistic with the questions to Clinton.

    Okay Obama haters and clinton supporters, now give me your fake reasons for remaining in a sinking ship.

    November 11, 2007 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  19. Joe Mathews, Manchester, VT

    The Philadelphia debate performance, "plants" in Iowa and a whole lot more are beginning to tell. It does, however, pay to remember that polls especially in a state with a complicated caucus system like Iowa are notoriously unreliable.

    However, Hillary's "negative" factor is beginning to come into play. Like millions of us, I want a nominee who can give clear, concise answers and state policies that are not so nuanced so as to sound "lawyeresque".

    I think it's telling that Obama, who is the former editor of the "Harvard Law Review" comes over as being more forthright, open and honest than Senator Clinton. She's continuing to be plagued by too many scripted performances, flip flops such as the driver's license for illegal immigrants fiasco and so much more.

    Make no mistake, she is and will be a formidable campaigner when everything goes according to her plan. When a curve ball comes in she ducks and that's becoming more and more apparent.
    The American voter will judge which approach is correct. Expect the race to tighten further.

    November 11, 2007 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  20. Dave, Evergreen CO

    The question in NH will be to whom the supporters of the canidates who drop out after Iowa throw their support too?

    This should make Hillary very nervous.

    November 11, 2007 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  21. Obama Guy

    Go Obama

    November 11, 2007 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  22. Fred Green

    I am surprised that there is change of direction. You need to beat your opponents first before go to attack Republicans. I am happy that your opponents are catching up. Hillary does not deserve to be our president. You got to answer our genuine questions. There are several of them remain unanswered. Answer them with sincerity....

    November 11, 2007 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  23. Jesse, Burnsville, MN

    Uh oh!!

    Edwards/Obama or Obama/Edwards '08

    November 11, 2007 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  24. Jim, Kanasa

    Unfortuently, Obama is not ready nor is he at this time a canidate that can win.

    November 11, 2007 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
  25. Jason, Atlanta, GA

    It was a matter of time before voters started to listen...and I like what i hear from Barack. I dont like the planted questions from Hillary..thats a big turn off. Plus Im really starting to believe Barack can change the country...and put some red states in play. Hillary wont do that...she cant because you either love her or hate her.

    November 11, 2007 12:37 pm at 12:37 pm |
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