November 14th, 2007
11:04 AM ET
2 years ago

Dead heat: Clinton, Edwards, Obama tied in Iowa

A new poll shows a three-way-tie among the top Democratic candidates in Iowa.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - It's a dead heat among the top three Democratic presidential candidates in the crucial early-voting state of Iowa, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll out of the Hawkeye State Wednesday.

Less than 50 days before Iowa voters kick off the presidential primary process, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, holds a statistically insignificant 2 percentage-point lead over former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards (25 percent to 23 percent.) Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is only 1 point behind at 22 percent. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson registered 12 percent and the rest of the field is in single digits.

But nearly half of those backing the top candidates said they may change their mind before caucus day, an indication the final outcome of the presidential season's first caucus is extremely unpredictable.

The poll also indicates former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney continues to hold his lead over the rest of the Republican presidential field with 27 percent while dark-horse candidate and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee places a strong second with 21 percent. Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani comes in third with 15 percent and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson stands at 9 percent. The rest of the field polled in low single digits.

Like their Democratic counterparts, close to 1 in 2 Republican caucus goers who identified supporting a candidate said their mind is not definitely made up, and 14 percent say they aren't leaning toward any particular candidate at this point in time.

The poll surveyed 1,273 likely Iowa caucus goers from November 2-11. The margin of error for the Democratic sample is 4 percentage points, while the margin of error for the Republican sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • Polls • Presidential Candidates
soundoff (111 Responses)
  1. Lenora, Cedar Rapids, IA

    Can you please select a photo that does not lop off the top of Barack Obama's head?

    November 14, 2007 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  2. spinstopper

    CBS/NYTimes = CNN/OpinionResearch = corrupt media opinions

    Whats that salt expression again...

    November 14, 2007 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  3. Atlanta

    they are all the same on most issues – just a matter of who can win in the general

    November 14, 2007 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  4. J Houston, TX

    It aint over til the fat lady sings.

    November 14, 2007 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  5. Juan Fort Lauderdale, FL

    Of course its a dead heat now that everyone realizes what a phony Hillary is...!

    November 14, 2007 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  6. John Machamer, Philadelphia, PA.

    Hello? It's the Republicans STUPID! You have to beat the Republicans to win the White House. This cannot be done if the Democrats continue to bash each other and provide fuel for the Republicans in the general election. It's about beating the republicans STUPID so please chill out.

    November 14, 2007 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  7. Alex

    I think democrats are a stupid bunch..they are going to lose again.

    Obama is a probably the best of the democratic aspirants but the question is can he win in a general election?

    November 14, 2007 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  8. Maryann Jackson Iowa

    VOTE FOR HILLARY!
    IOWA LOVES CLINTON IN 2008

    November 14, 2007 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  9. Mr. Smith Washington, DC

    Wow...Clinton is powerful. The whole story about the "planted questions" is gone from the website.

    I wanted to see if there was any update to the story so I checked the "top stories" list and it was removed and its no longer on the politics splashpage....

    Somebody..had to tell CNN to chill out.

    November 14, 2007 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  10. Joddy,Newton,Iowa

    Those are polls, not a real thing!
    Who gets polled because I have never been polled and I live here in IOWA...
    For those out there, I would tell you MR. Obama has a lead here from what I hear with most people....

    November 14, 2007 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
  11. spraynardkruger

    Hey TheInsider,

    You were wrong about Obama losing Iowa.

    Signed,
    Everyone

    November 14, 2007 10:28 am at 10:28 am |
  12. hillarylover NY NY

    I truly don't understand how the people of Iowa can take someone like John Edwards seriously. It really upsets me to know that someone who has ran a TOTALLY negative campaign, someone who HAS to accept public financing and someone who blatantly lies about where his money comes from can be taken seriously. John Edwards had his chance. He needs to move over and stop trying to divide the Democratic party and let people who are "fresh" to Presidential politics have their chance in front of the voters.

    He had his chance in 2004–he blew it. He had his chance running as VP in 2004–they lost. You didn't make it to be President in 2004 and you won't in 2008 either so give it up. As for Hillary and Barack. May the best woman win :-)

    HILLARY 2008

    November 14, 2007 10:30 am at 10:30 am |
  13. Ron, TX

    Hillary Clinton cannot unite the country. She can unite the Republicans AGAINST her, but she can't unite the country. Her idea of campaigning is to incite inflammatory rhetoric against all things Republican. We need a uniter. We need someone with a PLAN, and we need someone not afraid to tell us WHAT that plan is... Clinton's not the person.

    Obama is just where he needs to be. Clinton has totally fumbled over and over the past two weeks. The days of her "inevitable win" are long gone, as are the days of what many considered a "perfectly run" campaign. Obama is picking up steam. Given the choice between a revolution for a Better America, and more partisan division hate, and fear-mongering in foreign policy, I think people will choose a Better America.

    BARACK OBAMA '08

    November 14, 2007 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  14. Angus, CA

    YES!!!

    ANYBODY but HILLARY!

    November 14, 2007 10:37 am at 10:37 am |
  15. Hank, Fort Myers, Fl

    I predict that the fur will fly @ the next debate! What will eventually decide this horse race is mass appeal. From the majority of Dem. faithful and new democrats. That will be the individual who will remain calm even if under personal attack, who can passionately describe their vision–and their vision is realistic and workable, and who presents the kind of deportment necessary to meet, greet, and exercise effective diplomacy with world leaders. Given that description, I believe Hillary w/ emerge the chosen one.

    November 14, 2007 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  16. Matt, Sioux City, IOWA

    Iowa was not always a dead heat. Edwards had led most of the way. Clinton is slowly inching up. What is really interesting is that the same polls showed that she has huge lead in New Hampshire. I expect her to lose a close caucus race in Iowa to Edwards and then beat him decisively in New Hampshire. This poll is actually good news for Clinton because it shows she is not losing major ground after the media led onslaught

    November 14, 2007 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  17. Greg LEXINGTON KENTUCKY

    The problem with the current state of politics, other than the early start of campaigns leaves voters numb and candidates at one time or another looking dumb, is that some residents of Iowa and New Hampshire play too pivotal a role in selection of a President. Neither Iowa nor New Hampshire represent the diversity of this nation. Let's have 8 regional primaries two weeks apart beginning around January 15 and ending by May 15. Leave summers for conventions, not visits to voting booths.

    November 14, 2007 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  18. John Boy, Richmond, VA

    Why dont the "Opinion Research" polls show that? Oh, I forgot one of Clinton's major supporters runs that outfit. Guess she doesn't know that either.

    November 14, 2007 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  19. John New York, NY

    When Ann Coulter lays her bony frame in bed at night, she dreams that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.

    Why? For two reasons.

    1. Mrs. Clinton motivates Republicans like now other Democrat can.

    2. Even if Mrs. Clinton somehow won the general election, Ann Coulter can take comfort in knowing that Mrs. Clinton voted with Bush on Iraq and Iran.

    November 14, 2007 10:42 am at 10:42 am |
  20. Joanne, Frisco, TX

    The public is suffering, or will very shortly, from debate fatigue. And campaign fatigue. And issues fatigue. All important items, those, however we've nearly a year to go. Sigh.

    November 14, 2007 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  21. Chris, Middletown, CT

    Hillarys singing?? When??

    November 14, 2007 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  22. Brian Tampa

    Wow John-

    And here I thought it was about picking the best person we can find. Your bitter partisanship will never get us any where. I think you need to "chill out" and let the primary play its self out.

    November 14, 2007 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  23. Monte Brown, New York, NY

    Hillary will finish Obama and Edwards off in Nevada on Thursday with economic issues. Neither Obama nor Edwards have a sound fiscal plan like Hillary’s, and the two (Obama and Edwards) will only come to the debate with petty attacks as if they were right wing vultures. They can’t beat Hillary toe to toe on any issue. The only reason why the two are tied in Iowa with Hillary is because they both had help from the reactionaries who loathe and fear Hillary's election as it will bring forth the end of the right wing ideology. The reactionaries are desperate for blood, but the veins have run dry.

    Hillary will win the debate by communicating how her policies will move America forward. We can't eat hope and Americans should not be willing to take uncalculated risks for change. We should vote for the change we NEED.

    November 14, 2007 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  24. Bea, Hoboken, NJ

    Iowa is a real horse race, but ironically the person that they consider most electable in the general election is Hillary (same as they do in NH). As for the Republicans, it's still a toss up between Romney and Giuliani on the electability issue.

    It's going to be interesting to see who wins Iowa. Hillary can afford to lose it, but not Obama and Edwards.

    November 14, 2007 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  25. Richard, Morrisville, NC

    John Edward's strength in this state is evidence of why it should stripped of its first in the nation status. Iowans are clearly more interested in supporting candidates who are willing to spend all their time pandering to and courting them then they are in picking leaders who competent and effective. I find it funny that Hillary Clinton is accused of being calculating when John Edwards has done nothing for the past four years but spend most of his time pandering to Iowans in hopes that a big showing in this state would propel him to the nomination. He decries the influence of special interests, but in reality that is all the voters of Iowa represent-a small group of people with a disproportionate amount of influence. Clearly John Edwards has no problem with cozy up to such a group when it will help promote his political ambitions. Hillary Clinton has spent the last 7 years capably serving the people of New York in the Senate as evidenced by the overwhelming support she received in her reelection last year. John Edwards was too busy running for President to worry about serving North Carolina well during his time in the Senate. No one believes he would have been reelected had he run in 2004 instead of pursuing his own personal presidential ambitions. Hillary Clinton has always been about producing results for the people she was elected to represent. John Edwards has always been about advancing his own personal ambitions. We need a president who has a proven record of delivering for the people they were elected to serve, not one who has viewed public office simply as a stepping stone for their political aspirations.

    November 14, 2007 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
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