November 20th, 2007
09:15 AM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama, Clinton tied in Iowa

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Less than two months before Iowans cast the first votes of the 2008 election cycle, the Democratic race in the Hawkeye State is still a toss up, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll released Monday.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, is in the lead with 30 percent support from likely Iowa voters, followed closely by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, who earned 26 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards got 22 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson earned 11 percent.

Clinton, the national frontrunner, has seen her lead drop on some key fronts, according to the poll. In July, 50 percent of Iowans thought she had the best experience to be president, but in the poll released Monday, 38 percent said they thought she did. Despite that, 39 percent said they still thought she is the most electable candidate, with Obama in second in that category with 25 percent.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted from November 14-18. The poll surveyed 500 Iowans and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

–CNN Associate Producer Lauren Kornreich

soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. Sean, Farmington Hills, MI

    this is the most blatantly ridiculous thing i've ever seen. ARTICLE SAYS: "Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, is in the lead". CNN HEADLINE SAYS: "Obama, Clinton tied in Iowa"

    It doesnt matter how close the numbers are, a lead is a lead. Unbelievable, CNN.

    November 19, 2007 11:51 pm at 11:51 pm |
  2. Hanna,andover,ma

    Hallejah, Cnn is waking up!

    November 19, 2007 11:53 pm at 11:53 pm |
  3. marsha d, omaha ne.

    wow! Can't believe Hillary has dropped in Iowa to even with Obama ! ...

    November 20, 2007 12:02 am at 12:02 am |
  4. jack, NY

    if Obama is the candidate, then I will
    switch my vote to Rudy. A lot of the people think that way.

    November 20, 2007 12:03 am at 12:03 am |
  5. Jeff Johnson,Cedar Rapids,Iowa

    don't trust the poll obama it might hunt you down.we iowan not crazy...i live in iowa and i know about how iowan alwayz change their mind in the last minute...we did that last caucus when we chance our mind and vote for John Kerry...so don't trust the poll...no Q Hillary will win Iowa...

    November 20, 2007 12:11 am at 12:11 am |
  6. Dallas, CA

    So, when Clinton was 2 points ahead of Obama in Iowa, she was "leading," but when Obama is 4 points ahead of Clinton, they're "tied"? Interesting, CNN.

    Also interesting that there's no mention of the fact that Obama's support among over-45 voters has risen dramatically and that his support among women in Iowa is now greater than Clinton's.

    November 20, 2007 12:11 am at 12:11 am |
  7. Dave, Cheverly, MD

    When it's Clinton 28 Obama 26 CNN you say Clinton's ahead.

    NOW Obama is 30 Clinton is 26. So Obama is WAY AHEAD by your own caclulated methods.

    November 20, 2007 12:20 am at 12:20 am |
  8. Tere, FL

    CNN remember when Hillary was leading Obama by 2-3 points in Iowa your headline said that "Hillary and Romney ahead" What BS from CNN that now that Obama is 4 point ahead you give us that BS that they are tied in Iowa. You already proved your bias in the last debate and I am sure you are really MAD that the debate has lost news coverage and that Obama is getting more coverage now. Wait and watch the next debate by CBS where Wolf Blitzer will not be there to babysit Hillary

    November 20, 2007 12:25 am at 12:25 am |
  9. Len, sparks Nv

    Well, I see Obama as ahead. I guess there is a margin of error, but it is an upswing for Obama and not Clinton. That is a good trend.

    November 20, 2007 12:30 am at 12:30 am |
  10. Bernie Moore-Knowles, Papa'aloa, Hawai'i

    Aloha! I have one thing to say:

    "Obama 2008"

    November 20, 2007 12:54 am at 12:54 am |
  11. The Democrat, Phoenix, Arizona

    Finally people are looking outside the box and not giving into the Clinton hype. Hopefully Obama will win Iowa and Edwards can come in second.

    November 20, 2007 12:55 am at 12:55 am |
  12. Mannie

    I guess if Clinton was up a few points, CNN would say "Clinton Leads IA". I am so sick of CNN. It is so hard to write that Barack Lead in New IA Polls. Well I just did it.

    November 20, 2007 01:10 am at 1:10 am |
  13. Mason, Wales, WI

    If Obama is in the lead with 30 percent, and Hillary has 26 percent, how are they tied? I'm just glad Iowa is waking up and seeing what a good president Obama will be.

    November 20, 2007 01:11 am at 1:11 am |
  14. Vik N

    How are they tied when Obama is ahead? – I understand the margin of error issue but the headline should report the poll as is.

    Sheesh – this really is the Clinton News Network

    November 20, 2007 01:31 am at 1:31 am |
  15. theprofessional

    If Hillary was ahead by 4 points, CNN's headline would read: "Poll: Clinton leads in Iowa". When it's Obama that's ahead, all of a sudden CNN cares about statistical margins of error.

    And just a few more results from the poll that CNN failed to report:

    According to Democratic Party rules, a candidate must draw at least 15 percent at each caucus site for the votes to count; if that fails to happen, their supporters often throw their votes to a more viable contender. Combining the second-choice picks of candidates outside the top three, 34 percent would select Obama, 28 percent Edwards and only 15 percent Clinton.

    Obama also leads among those who are "certain to attend" the January 3rd caucus, those who have previously caucused, and those who are planning to caucus for the first time.

    Obama also showed that he's the candidate who is resonating the most with women voters. 32% of women polled are supporting Obama, compared with 31% for Clinton and 19% for Edwards.

    And by a 2 to 1 margin, Iowans find Obama more "honest and trustworthy" than Clinton.

    Also of note: Obama doubled Clinton's support among Independent voters (Obama 35% to Clinton 18%)– another indicator that he will be the strongest candidate going into the general election.

    November 20, 2007 01:38 am at 1:38 am |
  16. James

    Why are you so pro Hillary? This poll should not say it is tied! Obama is ahead!!!!!!!

    Please be more objective. I like you! Don't loose credability

    November 20, 2007 02:36 am at 2:36 am |
  17. john halverson DC

    it's a downward slide now. yee haw

    November 20, 2007 02:39 am at 2:39 am |
  18. Eric, NY, NY

    One of the less known numbers from the poll is that a majority of people polled had met Obama in person while only around a third had met Hillary Clinton. In the retail world of Iowa politics this matters. That said in the last two months Obama has missed the most votes of any Senator on the Democratic side running for President and Clinton the least so this could be one reason why he has met more people in Iowa.

    November 20, 2007 03:54 am at 3:54 am |
  19. AP, New York, NY

    Why is it that whenever Clinton has a 1-4 point lead in a poll, CNN labels her as "winning" but when Obama has a 1-4 point lead in a poll, CNN labels it a "tie?" Face the facts, the people who are following this closely (the people in Iowa) are starting to see the holes in Clinton and as the rest of the country begins to pay more attention, they will see the same holes.

    November 20, 2007 03:56 am at 3:56 am |
  20. Sérgio, Porto, Portugal

    Obama may be more inexperienced than Hillary, may not answer question as politaclly as Hillary but he is the most honest candidate, having the ability to make the better judgements....

    Go BA-RAAACK!

    From a Portuguese who has been following the primaries since day 1.

    November 20, 2007 04:23 am at 4:23 am |
  21. Steve, South Orange NJ

    30 to 26 means Obama is winning in Iowa not tied with Hillary. You can make this piece much more objective by saying they are in a statistical tie. Just thought I'd give you guys a little advise in how not to be biased.

    November 20, 2007 05:19 am at 5:19 am |
  22. Dan, Tx

    In another month the national polls will start to catch up with Iowa. The democratic nomination is a toss up.

    November 20, 2007 05:20 am at 5:20 am |
  23. Chip Celina OH

    CNN, didn't you report a few weeks ago when she was barely ahead (within the margin of error) in a poll that she was "dominating" the polls or something like that. Now, here's one where she's four points down and they're tied. Nice work!

    Remember, you can't spell CliNtoN without CNN.

    November 20, 2007 05:45 am at 5:45 am |
  24. EE

    My guts tell me Mr Obama will win Iowa

    November 20, 2007 05:53 am at 5:53 am |
  25. Hillarylover - SA

    Let's not be mislead by the polls. Obama has no winning chance in the world. Clinton '08!

    November 20, 2007 06:58 am at 6:58 am |
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