November 20th, 2007
09:15 AM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama, Clinton tied in Iowa

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Less than two months before Iowans cast the first votes of the 2008 election cycle, the Democratic race in the Hawkeye State is still a toss up, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll released Monday.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, is in the lead with 30 percent support from likely Iowa voters, followed closely by Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-New York, who earned 26 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards got 22 percent and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson earned 11 percent.

Clinton, the national frontrunner, has seen her lead drop on some key fronts, according to the poll. In July, 50 percent of Iowans thought she had the best experience to be president, but in the poll released Monday, 38 percent said they thought she did. Despite that, 39 percent said they still thought she is the most electable candidate, with Obama in second in that category with 25 percent.

The Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted from November 14-18. The poll surveyed 500 Iowans and had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

–CNN Associate Producer Lauren Kornreich

soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. Mark, Delaware

    A 4% margin of error puts them in a dead heat, that is factual – not biased.

    November 20, 2007 07:34 am at 7:34 am |
  2. AJ; Montpelier, VT

    Just goes to show that people in Iowa arent the sharpest bunch around. How anyone could be taken in by this empty suit is just amazing.

    November 20, 2007 07:41 am at 7:41 am |
  3. Ray Hampshire, Lima, Ohio

    I'm trying to figure out how CNN interprets 30% vs 26% as a tie. Can someone help me understand this?

    November 20, 2007 08:14 am at 8:14 am |
  4. JB Boston MA

    NO-

    Obama is in the lead!!!

    It may be a statistical tie, but he is in the lead.

    You people are ridiculous! CNN you are not being stealth. Start being unbiased and fair!

    November 20, 2007 08:36 am at 8:36 am |
  5. Xavier, Washington, DC

    Since when is a 4 point lead a tie? Oh, I get it. This is CNN and you can't portray Clinton is a bad light.

    November 20, 2007 08:50 am at 8:50 am |
  6. Ryan, New Jersey

    Haha, yes, lets not let numbers or reason stand in our way, blind faith in Hillary and her corporate brethren!

    The system we have is broken. Hillary won't fix it. That's a fact. Obama might. I'll take my chances with Obama.

    November 20, 2007 09:26 am at 9:26 am |
  7. Matt Sutton, Central Point, Oregon

    Hmm. You've contradicted yourself CNN. Your headline says they are tied, your article says Obama is in the lead.

    Please fix your headline. You've had Hillary in the lead on headlines of even tighter polls. What gives?

    November 20, 2007 09:28 am at 9:28 am |
  8. sally,portsmouth,NH

    'It starting to look alot more like Christmas, everywhere you goooooo'

    Cnn is getting it now.....Or we flash them down in the toilet with clintons.......

    November 20, 2007 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  9. therealist

    Obama greatest challenger is not Hillary or the Republican's, it's the corrupt media. And he doesn't stand a chance against his own ideological escorts who support Hillary...

    November 20, 2007 09:31 am at 9:31 am |
  10. Arshad, Newburgh, NY

    AJ,
    It shows people in IOWA take the responsibility of nominating the next president very seriously. They attend meetings, research policy positions, ask candidate questions, observe how candidates conduct themselves and so on. They don't sit in front of TV camera like Clinton supporters and make decisions based on what so called journalists like Keith Olberman (MSNBC) and Wolf Blitzer (CNN) spins on TV or what bunch of Polls show.

    It tells people are much smarter than media thinks they are. It tells an honest candidate with principle and integrity can stand tall against all odds (media bias or establishment or lobbyists) and still his message can resonate to people when he stands for what people are looking for. It inspires that American people did not give up on democracy and allowing corporate media and lobbyist to play a mockery about the long tradition of american democracy by declaring a corrupt politican as inevitable long before the fist vote ever cast.

    AJ, you should be proud of the hard work of IOWANs to identify the right candidate and learn from them and change yourself and many others like you.

    November 20, 2007 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
  11. karl, Texas

    Actually the poll means they are tied. It has a 4.5% margin of error. Further its the only poll with this result. Every other poll in Iowa who had larger sample size had Clinton ahead–but also with the margin of error. Clearly the candidates are in a tight race in Iowa.

    November 20, 2007 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  12. Sue in Florida

    YES.....CLINTON '08. Why do the naysayers come here to just protest CNN. Read elsewhere, the polls are basically the same. Better yet, I like the comment by AJ...empty suit housing Obama. You don't seriously want this guy, do you? That's scary.

    November 20, 2007 10:08 am at 10:08 am |
  13. John Smith, Austin, TX

    I guess the voters of Iowa pay attention. Good, maybe they recognize that a vote for Clinton is a vote for another 4 years of Bush-style politics.

    November 20, 2007 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  14. Fred, Reston

    Mark my words; when the next group of polls come out, these Obama supporters will decry the use of polls, and blame the media because THEIR candidate is an empty suit.

    I am calling you out Dan from TX and therealist.

    November 20, 2007 10:32 am at 10:32 am |
  15. banko

    CNN OBAMA is leading. This is not a tie. Stop spinning. The handwriting is on the wall. We need real change not cosmetic change.
    Run Barack, Run.

    OBAMA 08

    November 20, 2007 10:33 am at 10:33 am |
  16. Mike Dallas, TX

    I hope you don't censor this

    1. Last night at 8 pm when the buzz was Obama leading,yes leading,not "tied" in Iowa you were sitting on this important news and instead posted about 'slime politics' which earlier in the day others talked about and already moved on.

    2. When you finally decide to write you make the title about being "tied" whereas when Hillary was leading by 2 points you guys wrote it as a lead opposed to a statistical tie.

    3. You also ignored many weaknesses of Hillary that the poll uncovered and rather chose to write that the poll showed she is more electable.

    You ignored the following facts:

    Most Democratic likely voters in Iowa, 55 percent, say they're more interested in a "new direction and new ideas" than in strength and experience, compared with 49 percent in July - a help to Obama, who holds a substantial lead among "new direction" voters.

    Overall, in current preferences, 30 percent in Iowa support Obama, 26 percent Clinton and 22 percent Edwards, with 11 percent for Bill Richardson...

    ...just 50 percent believe [Hillary Clinton's] willing enough to say what she really thinks, vs. three-quarters who say this about Obama...

    Among those "new direction" voters, 43 percent prefer Obama, while just 17 percent go for Clinton - a major component of his support...

    Among women, meanwhile, Clinton and Obama run about evenly...

    ...Obama does notably better, and Clinton less well, among independents rather than registered Democrats (35 percent of independents support Obama vs. 18 percent for Clinton).

    ...Similarly, Obama does better among younger Iowans, and also among those who say it'll be their first caucus (about a third of all likely caucus-goers).

    I HOPE you don't censor this because if you do you guys will become the story, how you write misleading stories and how you censor when people try to correct you. In this day and age of electronic media you can't stifle people's free speech and we will write about this on every other blog.

    please do the right thing.

    November 20, 2007 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  17. S. Alexander

    It is really frightening to me that Iowa would even think of voting for Obama. He is running before his "time"...he is inexperienced and unseasoned.
    How shrewd to behave as though he's being slimmed w/o any proof that it is coming from Hillary.
    We need competency in the white house.
    Obama didn't even show up to vote for the Lieberman amendment and criticizes Hillary for her vote. If you don't show up, what gives you the right to bash Hillary?

    November 20, 2007 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  18. PROVIDENCE, RI

    Dear Obama fans: Don't get too excited! Not so fast! 30% of Iowans are not sure whom they are going to vote for as of today, which means they do not want to tell or they do not know whom they will vote for. Please visit http://www.usaelectionpolls.com, and you will find my claim. In 2004, at this time, Howard Dean was holding the first place, while Kerry was in the 6th position. And you know the outcome. Iowa is unpredictable. Very unpredictable. It can be any of them-Biden, Hillary, Obama, Richardson...And then in 2004, Iowa went for Bush. does not Iowa support anti war candidate? Then why Bush won Iowa in 2004?

    November 20, 2007 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  19. Wayne, Silver Spring, MD

    How about I give you a better title for your post: "Clinton Slips in Iowa"

    but ofcourse not, the Clinton News Network wont do that to their madame.

    *ahem*

    November 20, 2007 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  20. linda, OKC OK

    sweet....OBAMA 2008!!!!!

    November 20, 2007 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  21. Tere, FL

    AJ Join the Obama wagon, it is not too late to redeem yourself. You dont want to be left alone in the cold do you?

    November 20, 2007 10:43 am at 10:43 am |
  22. DMW, Roeland Park, KS

    Iowa Democrats rarely pick the candidate that goes on to become the nominee. Even if Obama wins Iowa, Hillary will still be the nominee. Iowa is not a reflection of the entire country.

    Obama is a self-righteous hypocrite...yuk!

    November 20, 2007 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  23. Randy S. Lawton, OK

    Ah, Hillarylover, When your girl is way ahead in the polls they must be the gospel truth, when she's not doing so well the it's "let's not be mislead(sic) by the polls".
    You're just like your girl, Hiilary, you want to have it both ways.
    Time to kick back and take a long, hard, objective reality check.

    November 20, 2007 11:03 am at 11:03 am |
  24. Carl

    1. Last night at 8 pm when the buzz was Obama leading,yes leading,not "tied" in Iowa you were sitting on this important news and instead posted about 'slime politics' which earlier in the day others talked about and already moved on.

    2. When you finally decide to write you make the title about being "tied" whereas when Hillary was leading by 2 points you guys wrote it as a lead opposed to a statistical tie.

    3. You also ignored many weaknesses of Hillary that the poll uncovered and rather chose to write that the poll showed she is more electable.

    You ignored the following facts:

    Most Democratic likely voters in Iowa, 55 percent, say they're more interested in a "new direction and new ideas" than in strength and experience, compared with 49 percent in July - a help to Obama, who holds a substantial lead among "new direction" voters.

    Overall, in current preferences, 30 percent in Iowa support Obama, 26 percent Clinton and 22 percent Edwards, with 11 percent for Bill Richardson...

    ...just 50 percent believe [Hillary Clinton's] willing enough to say what she really thinks, vs. three-quarters who say this about Obama...

    Among those "new direction" voters, 43 percent prefer Obama, while just 17 percent go for Clinton - a major component of his support...

    Among women, meanwhile, Clinton and Obama run about evenly...

    ...Obama does notably better, and Clinton less well, among independents rather than registered Democrats (35 percent of independents support Obama vs. 18 percent for Clinton).

    ...Similarly, Obama does better among younger Iowans, and also among those who say it'll be their first caucus (about a third of all likely caucus-goers).

    I HOPE you don't censor this because if you do you guys will become the story, how you write misleading stories and how you censor when people try to correct you. In this day and age of electronic media you can't stifle people's free speech and we will write about this on every other blog.

    please do the right thing.

    November 20, 2007 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  25. Jim L., Irmo, SC

    Yeah, I agree with the other posters, this whole "tied" thing is pretty bad. Come on. And while I agree with the Clinton supporter that polls don't really tell us much of anything, it is still funny to see that that is not what they say when they see a poll with her in the lead.

    November 20, 2007 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
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