November 30, 2007
Posted: 12:35 PM ET

New polls show the Democratic presidential race is tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire.

WASHINGTON (CNN) — A new poll finds Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards now in a statistical tie among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Obama, D-Illinois, seems to have captured 27 percent of the vote, with 25 percent for Clinton and 23 for Edwards in an American Research Group survey of voters in critical early primary states released Friday.

Bill Richardson has slipped to just 4 percent in the latest survey and dropped to fifth place overall, behind Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, whose support has risen from 5 to 8 percent.

Clinton’s support in New Hampshire appears to be slipping as well, but the New York senator still holds a double-digit lead over Obama, her closest rival. The survey finds 34 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton (a six point drop from the October poll), 23 percent support Obama and 17 percent support former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

Edwards seems to have suffered a six-point drop among primary voters in his birth state of South Carolina. He remains in third place overall with 12 percent. Obama is in second place with 21 percent, and Clinton holds a commanding lead with 45 percent.

The margin of error for all polls was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina


shawna, nj   December 3rd, 2007 9:29 am ET

While the polls help people get an idea of where candidates stand, i think it's very important not to get wrapped up in them. They are just soft numebrs, they are not actual results. Obama has been gaining on Hillary, but even less attention has been paid to John Edwards who has also slowly but steadily been creeping his way up in the polls. It seems that everyday a new poll is releasing about Hillary losing 1% in NH or Obama gains 3% in SC. We should be focusing more on the issues, not who is currently ahead in this lap of the race.

Citroen, Hagerstown, MD   December 2nd, 2007 3:24 pm ET

Biden-Webb '08!

STOP OBAMA   December 2nd, 2007 8:06 am ET

Another example of the continued dishonestly and manipulation by Obama.
Barack Obama is drawing Hugh skepticism RECRUITING NON-IOWANS TO THE IOWAN caucus. NO OTHER CANDIDATES are systematically trying to manipulate the Iowa caucuses like Obama
“Barack Obama” brochure “If you are not from Iowa, you can come back for the Iowa caucus and caucus in your neighborhood. The brochure gives instructions about where to call or go online for information about where to caucus”

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, the state’s leading political commentator, wrote “The Illinois Caucus” that the effort to increase participation by out-of-staters “risks offending long-time Iowa residents.” And he’s correct! “Given that students in Iowa’s colleges and universities are from Obama’s neighboring home state of Illinois, the effort could net him thousands of additional votes on caucus night,” Yespen wrote. The Iowa caucus ought to be for Iowans. NO OTHER POLITICAN Democrat or Republican is sending bogus literature recruiting out-of-state voters to manipulate IOWA Caucuses,
Chris Dodd for President Iowa State Director Julie Andreeff Jensen said in a statement on Saturday:

“I was deeply disappointed to read today about the Obama campaign's attempt to recruit thousands of out-of-state residents to come to Iowa for the caucuses. … ‘New Politics’ shouldn't be about scheming to evade either the spirit or the letter of the rules that guide the process. That may be the way politics is played in Chicago, but not in Iowa."
As an IOWAN who was on the fence between Sen Clinton and obama, this seals my vote for CLINTON! This guy is showing he will cheat, lie and steal to win; we already have that in a President. CLINTON IS THE TRUE CHANGE IN 2008

Roger, Aurora Illinois   December 2nd, 2007 3:49 am ET

I don't know how accurately those poll numbers are. I do know however they come from all over the state evenly. Email's within the Richardson campaign show him gaining ground, as much as 15%, a secure 4th while the big three battle in a statistical tie in the 20s. Richardson campaign analyst Paul Maslin is not new to this polling business. He did this for a number of candidates in all sorts of races and have plenty of experience in the field.

But even if it's true that Richardson fell harshly, remember in 2004 the poll numbers Senator Kerry was managing. Or the single digit ratings his would-be VP was pulling in.

Robert kellogg, Charlotte, North Carolina   December 1st, 2007 8:38 pm ET

The polls do show a tightening of the numbers in Iowa, but the voter turn out is what matters. I feel at times like screaming. As a Hillary supporter I get so frustrated at peoples lack of individuality, common sense and thinking on their own. I hear the same rhetoric spewed out day after day. Whats even more appalling is the Obama supporters who have started saying the same things. They sound more republican than the republicans do. Look, the lady cant be all the things you say she is. There has been a great media assault to see her fall and so far she has risen to the challenge. I predict that if people actually think for them selves and listen to reason, Hillary will be their choice for president. It's time for the democrats to stop demonizing their own and start comeing together in order to oust the republicans from the oval office. Obamas people need to get a grip on reality. Stop pointing fingers and calling names. it might just come back to haunt you. Hillary is not perfect and has never professed to be, neither is Obama. he distorts the truth everyday. he has twisted the meaning of universal health care and made a mockery of what presidential experience should be. Wake up Obamites, you have been snowed by a crafty politician who will be more of a Hollywood showman than Bill Clinton ever thought of being. Time is running out. Iowans, PLEASE look beyond the media bashing and see Hillary for who she really is. If you do that she will win Iowa.

fair,washington,dc   December 1st, 2007 12:47 pm ET

At the end of the day it looks like Hillary or Obama will win the Democratic nomination. I am a Hillary supporter so I will be disappointed if she doesn't win, but I will regroup and back whoever the Democratic candidate is and I hope all Democrats will do the same when the time comes. I say this after watching the Senate race in Md where five African American Democratic elected officials right beore the election had a press conference and came out endorsing the Republican African American candidate and their reasoning was they were showing their displeasure that the Md democratic party didn't get behind Kweisi Mfume ( because he was African American according to their logic) who ran in the primary and lost to caucasian Jim Webb. It was one of the most distasteful things I've seen in politics and I hope if any of them run for re-election the MD voters remember that atrocity and vote them out of office. This 08 election isn't about race, gender or anything else other then putting our best candidate forward and hoping we get a Dem in the WH. Yes I posted this in other places because I think this is very important, although Jim Webb did eventually win , the race was so close there was talk of a recount, we've seen close races in the general election enough now that we should realize every vote counts.

Druie Cavender Flemington, NJ   December 1st, 2007 11:48 am ET

The next President will inherit a multitude of disasters from the Bush "administration". We need the brightest, most experienced, and toughest candidate we can find. Although it's not necessarily her fault, Hillary Clinton is too polarizing and will not be able to attract Republican support in Congress to enact her ideas even if she does get elected. Barack Obama is simply too young and inexperienced. And I don't think John Edwards can win - will the country vote for a trial lawyer who has made a fortune suing people?

Joe Biden has been in the Senate for 35 years, and he clearly has the most experience in, and the deepest understanding of, foreign policy issues. I'm certain that the Republicans will attack him as a career politician, but his positions are certainly more substantiative than any of the Republicans.

jw, canadian,ok   December 1st, 2007 10:42 am ET

To Mark,LA - I got to agree with the other posters, that was a real stupid post. I didn't know you had access to computers in the insane asylum.

Danielle NH   December 1st, 2007 9:51 am ET

What is wrong with IOWANS????You’re starting to show the rest of the country, your lack good judgment.
You’re wasting your vote and jeopardizing this great country from moving forward, by supporting an oprah fan for President!!!!
IOWANS ARE LOOKING VERY STUPID
a vote for obama is a vote for a republican oprah

JE, Watertown, NY   December 1st, 2007 9:42 am ET

There is a constant bashing of Hillary here at CNN blogs or media, whether it be from the republicans or obama/edwards supporters.

About 4 weeks ago, when Hillary did not do well in one debate, there were joys in the media criticising her for many days. Then two weeks later, when she did quite well, and Obama mumbled and stumbled in the las vegas debate, there have been little praise for Hillary from the media or blogs here.

Hillary 08.

J. Willaiason, Buffalo, NY   December 1st, 2007 9:23 am ET

Even though John Edwards remains highly competitive in virtually every poll, the press and pundits talk of this race as being between Obama and Hillary. Edwards is the the strongest candidate the Dems can offer - extremely smart, energetic, tough, and connects well with the Dem base and independents. We need to win, some southern and western states - I don't see Hillary or Obama doing either. Edwards can and would, as the nominee, I believe. Dems can't afford to write-off big sections of the country before the gen election.

Ed Kennedy NH... GO CLINTON 2008!   December 1st, 2007 8:28 am ET

Hillary Clinton has been doing an OUTSTANDING job in this campaign and has earned our votes and backing. For many months her less experienced opponents have bashed her personally and professionally, and all the while kept her professionalism and continued to state her solutions and plans for the future of this great country. All obama can do is critcize, IM GLAD to see Hillary finally fighting back, slinging her own mud, if she continued to not defend herself then the country would believe her opponents lies. Obama could not lead his own way out of a paper bag, his supporters say, wow he spoke well, when he's on stage alone, but put him next to any other candidate he looks so out of place and inexperienced. I had considered Obama early in the race, but when he showed the country just who he really is, non-patriotic, lied about being Muslim, and doesn’t have anything in the way of solutions to offer this great country. Steals his opponent’s plans and thinks if Oprah performs for us in his name, he can win. Oprah may help make a book sell, but we the American people will not elect a president based on Oprah’s opinion. American public is much smarter than Obama and Oprah thinks they are, shame on them both, they are in for a big surprise. WE ARE VOTING FOR THE CLEAR LEADER/WINNER WHICH IS HILLARY CLINTON, NOT THE FOLLOWER…Obama Winphrey…

Axel, RKDA, California   December 1st, 2007 6:23 am ET

All politicians will say anything to get elected. The only accurate way to judge them is not not by what they say they will do, but by what they have actually done in the past.

Kyu Reisch, Radcliff, Kentucky   December 1st, 2007 4:09 am ET

David Swenk, Santa Maria, are you God like Obama? How do you know American's mind what they are thinking? You just lied like Obama because you sounds like Obama's supporter. Your dishonesty makes your Country bad, you should consider about your children's future.

Wyatt Medford,Oregon   December 1st, 2007 12:45 am ET

Hillary Clinton if elected will have a few problems to deal with, first the Republican party hates her, everytime they mention her name at there rallys the crowd goes wild and not in a good way. To get anything done in Washington you need to get at least 15 of the Republicans to go along or you won't get anything passed, do you really think Clinton can do this??Another problem I see with Clinton is the American people are tired of the same 2 families taking turns being President. Obama is another story, he doesn't have the bagggage of Clinton but he also doesn't have the experience, mostly in Foreign Affairs. The next President will need to be able to solve all the problems abroad. Please, we don't have the luxury of on the job training at this time in our current situation. Edwards is strong on fighting for the working class but he has a weakness like Obama not enough experience, they are both 1 term senators. Clinton comes across like she has more experience but she really doesn't. Richardson sorry, but we need a President who puts National Security first. All 4 of these candidates are weak on illegal immigration they seem to wobble on there answers when it comes to giving illegals a drivers licence. Biden is the best choice for President, he has the strongest background in Foreign Affairs and has a actual plan to end the War. Biden also is well liked on both sides of the parties and has a track record of bringing them together to get things done. Biden also doesn't have any baggage he has a wife who is a teacher and a son who is going off to war and family who actually like each other. Biden also can reach out to Independents and Moderate Republicans better then any of the other candidates. Biden is the only one who said "NO" without wobbling when it comes to illegal getting licenses. I hope Iowa gets it right.

Samar, San Diego, CA   December 1st, 2007 12:30 am ET

Mark in LA must have posted the stupidiest statement that I've seen in a loooong time. Really.

Beth Concord NC   December 1st, 2007 12:29 am ET

Anyone with a sour taste in their mouth over all of the insanity and lies from both parties should have a look at Joe Biden. He has answers to the questions we are all asking, and is not afraid to tell you what they are.

Jerry, Canton, OH   December 1st, 2007 12:05 am ET

By Mark , LA

Not to defend Hillary, as I am a supporter and contributor to the Obama campaign, but I do not think it is right to say she was hiding from the crisis. Was she suppose to do 50 interviews during the crisis?- Then you would criticize her for trying to grab all the attention during this horrible event. As it has been reported, during those 7 hours she was calling the family members of those that were taken as hostages and talking to law enforcements. Now, I am sure she is sorry that she didn't personally call you Mark and tell you everything. I think she handled this very well, very respectfully. It reminded me of Obama's character.

Obama 2008

Jonathan, Holiday, Florida   November 30th, 2007 11:14 pm ET

Other than Iowans, who cares who Iowans want to vote for?

I agree with those that say all states should hold primaries on the same day.

Jonathan, Holiday, Florida   November 30th, 2007 11:11 pm ET

I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do. How do you think she'll react on the next 9/11? Do you think she's going to make our enemies fear the reprecussions of attacking the US? Remember those British sailors that were kidnapped by Iran? Well if Hillary were prez, that would have been US Soldiers. Think about it folks.

Posted By Mark , LA : November 30, 2007 7:45 pm

I think Senator Hillary handled the situation perfectly. She cooperated with law enforcement to solve the situation. I have been waiting for someone to say something as stupid as your remarks. What would you have had her do? I can say with 100% confidence that there is NOTHING she could have done (or ever do) to satisfy you.

J. McKinney SW MO   November 30th, 2007 10:59 pm ET

>>>I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do.>>>

Mark, you nitwit! What did you expect Hillary to do. Rush over there and run in and rescue the hostages by herself??

Tired of Corruption LV   November 30th, 2007 9:37 pm ET

Everyday Clinton shows that she is incapable of making decisions without waiting for polls to show her what to do. People are wising up to her unethical behavior and poor judgement.

She is constantly reminding people of the unethical, scandalous behavior that permeated the Clinton reign. The behavior of the Clintons allowed the takeover of our congress by the far right republicans - we can't afford that again.

John Paul California   November 30th, 2007 9:36 pm ET

HILLARY Clinton is the most corrupt politician of all the Democrats-I do not care whether she is a woman or man. To those of you who think she is the best "presidential nominee" do your research on her corruption scandals by using a search engine like google. Hillary Clinton is not a good choice for president!

erika morgan black dimond wa   November 30th, 2007 9:13 pm ET

I just saw the Charley Rose interview with Edwards, he did himself a lot of good with me! I have not been an Edwards supporter, he seemed too slick to me. Today he articulated my most basic concerns for the US in a way that resonated with me. I am concerned with the basic loss of democracy, the lack of understanding in the Government that they work for and represent the common citizen who is their sovereign. He also seems to have given some thought to how to go about reversing this trend, to take us back to be a people who our founders would smile with approval over.

Robb, New York   November 30th, 2007 8:55 pm ET

Oh, please, let this be true. Let the Democrats have the wisdom to see Obama as the one true choice and not Clinton. Please, don't let Hillary win this thing. America needs change, and nominating Obama is a start.

David Swenk, Santa Maria, CA   November 30th, 2007 7:49 pm ET

As an independant, I'm watching this democrat race pretty closely. TO me, Obama seems the most gifted. Hillary looks to me like a political pundit who will say anything to get elected. Another typical big spending liberal trying to buy votes with our dollars.
I believe independants would most likely go for Obama than her, me included.

Mark , LA   November 30th, 2007 7:45 pm ET

I just watched Clinton respond to the Hostage Standoff. First, Clinton hid for 7 hours while the crisis was taking place. Once again, Hillary waited for someone to tell her what to do. How do you think she'll react on the next 9/11? Do you think she's going to make our enemies fear the reprecussions of attacking the US? Remember those British sailors that were kidnapped by Iran? Well if Hillary were prez, that would have been US Soldiers. Think about it folks.

Kim, Dallas, TX   November 30th, 2007 7:42 pm ET

Things should get really interesting in another couple of weeks. I believe Hillary would stop at nothing to unseat Obama. If it weren't such a critical election due to the damage done by our current administration, it would be like watching a psychological thriller waiting to see just how far things will go. I see her as no different than Karl Rove in getting what she wants. He was the genious in fraud and deception.

Dale Wagner, Monroe, IOWA   November 30th, 2007 7:42 pm ET

Remember all you NON-Iowa caucus goers spouting info - 15% is a threshhold for any candidate in Iowa Dem caucuses - anyone having under 15% of the total in attendance can JOIN with another candidate's group.
So all those with SECOND choices [who do not choose to leave the caucus when they find their second-tier WITHOUT 15% will play a major part in whether Hill, Obama or Edwards comes out the winner with the MOST voters there at final count.
All those college students who are registered at their college which is on holiday break until Jan. 22 or so, watch on C-Span to see HOW MANY fans of Obama pay to return EARLY from out of state home to caucus on Jan. 3 - it's a KEY unknown factor.

Hillarylover - SA   November 30th, 2007 7:20 pm ET

WE LOVE HILLARY.

Markie Bee, Sacramento, Calif.   November 30th, 2007 6:41 pm ET

What difference does it make if Hillary's numbers are falling and going to someone other than Barack…If Hillary goes 10 points behind by Jan. 3 and Obama is still in the lead doesn't it seem that he will be the winner? Yeah Edwards, Biden and Richardson will rise but not enough to unseat Obama. The Obama campaign has run an incredibly disciplined campaign. Sure, there's been some mistakes (McGurkin) but they alwasy knew that they would keep their powder dry during the summer, let Hillary keep up her burn rate and then close over the last six weeks with massive media blasts and fantastic public speaking engagements that not only show off the candidate but the organizational strength and the incredible amount of support coast to coast.

Tony, Miami, FL   November 30th, 2007 4:26 pm ET

Nobody is fooled by Obama trying to sound like a preacher. He needs to sit down…the Republicans will crush his skinny, coke infested bones.

Taran, San Diego, CA   November 30th, 2007 4:26 pm ET

For all of you Obama enthusiasts (and there are certainly many of you on this Blog), the numbers are certainly getting closer in New Hampshire (Iowa really hasn't moved much in a couple of months, flipping between an Obama lead and Hillary lead), but be mindful of the following: If you look at the numbers (nationally and in New Hampshire), Obama is NOT increasing his support, but rather support for Hillary is either going to Richardson, Biden, or the "not sure" category.

If the "not sure" group (especially the ones that moved from the Hillary camp) have not yet committed to Obama, the majority of them are probably not going to vote for Obama. Clearly, their heart is still for Hillary and they are looking to see if she will correct her ship. If they were really torn between Obama and Hillary, they would have committed to him. Hillary had a hick-up last month (and endured a TREMENDOUS amount of bad press in the interim). After rigourous campaigning during the next month, I suspect she'll get the majority of those "not sure" voters back. That's my prediction anyway.

DW, S.F. CA   November 30th, 2007 2:21 pm ET

John Edwards seems to be doing well. New Hampshire should wake up about Hillary or we will be in Iraq forever.

Steve in SC   November 30th, 2007 1:44 pm ET

Corey,

Sour grapes makes the best whine!

Ryan, New Jersey   November 30th, 2007 1:23 pm ET

The reason for this is simple. As soon as Americans hear Obama speak, as soon as they actually see him beyond the 12 second soundbyte on CNN, their reaction is usually, "Wow, I didn't know there could be politicians like that!" Obama is getting to wake up and look around at the corruption Hillary wants to perpetuate.

Corey, Bloomington IN   November 30th, 2007 1:22 pm ET

A well that's just a poll. We all know polls are just collections of statistics representing what people are thinking in "reality." And reality has a well-known Obama bias.

Harry,Iowa   November 30th, 2007 1:17 pm ET

Obama is the most favoured candidate over here in Iowa. I don't know in Newhempshire.

Harry,Iowa   November 30th, 2007 1:11 pm ET

That is just statistical math. I have seen it before. Obama has the ground here,go figure!

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