November 30th, 2007
12:35 PM ET
2 years ago

Polls show Dem race tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire

New polls show the Democratic presidential race is tightening in Iowa and New Hampshire.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - A new poll finds Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards now in a statistical tie among likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa. Obama, D-Illinois, seems to have captured 27 percent of the vote, with 25 percent for Clinton and 23 for Edwards in an American Research Group survey of voters in critical early primary states released Friday.

Bill Richardson has slipped to just 4 percent in the latest survey and dropped to fifth place overall, behind Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, whose support has risen from 5 to 8 percent.

Clinton’s support in New Hampshire appears to be slipping as well, but the New York senator still holds a double-digit lead over Obama, her closest rival. The survey finds 34 percent of likely Democratic primary voters support Clinton (a six point drop from the October poll), 23 percent support Obama and 17 percent support former North Carolina senator John Edwards.

Edwards seems to have suffered a six-point drop among primary voters in his birth state of South Carolina. He remains in third place overall with 12 percent. Obama is in second place with 21 percent, and Clinton holds a commanding lead with 45 percent.

The margin of error for all polls was plus or minus 4 percentage points.


Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (40 Responses)
  1. Kyu Reisch, Radcliff, Kentucky

    David Swenk, Santa Maria, are you God like Obama? How do you know American's mind what they are thinking? You just lied like Obama because you sounds like Obama's supporter. Your dishonesty makes your Country bad, you should consider about your children's future.

    December 1, 2007 04:09 am at 4:09 am |
  2. Axel, RKDA, California

    All politicians will say anything to get elected. The only accurate way to judge them is not not by what they say they will do, but by what they have actually done in the past.

    December 1, 2007 06:23 am at 6:23 am |
  3. Ed Kennedy NH... GO CLINTON 2008!

    Hillary Clinton has been doing an OUTSTANDING job in this campaign and has earned our votes and backing. For many months her less experienced opponents have bashed her personally and professionally, and all the while kept her professionalism and continued to state her solutions and plans for the future of this great country. All obama can do is critcize, IM GLAD to see Hillary finally fighting back, slinging her own mud, if she continued to not defend herself then the country would believe her opponents lies. Obama could not lead his own way out of a paper bag, his supporters say, wow he spoke well, when he's on stage alone, but put him next to any other candidate he looks so out of place and inexperienced. I had considered Obama early in the race, but when he showed the country just who he really is, non-patriotic, lied about being Muslim, and doesn’t have anything in the way of solutions to offer this great country. Steals his opponent’s plans and thinks if Oprah performs for us in his name, he can win. Oprah may help make a book sell, but we the American people will not elect a president based on Oprah’s opinion. American public is much smarter than Obama and Oprah thinks they are, shame on them both, they are in for a big surprise. WE ARE VOTING FOR THE CLEAR LEADER/WINNER WHICH IS HILLARY CLINTON, NOT THE FOLLOWER…Obama Winphrey…

    December 1, 2007 08:28 am at 8:28 am |
  4. J. Willaiason, Buffalo, NY

    Even though John Edwards remains highly competitive in virtually every poll, the press and pundits talk of this race as being between Obama and Hillary. Edwards is the the strongest candidate the Dems can offer – extremely smart, energetic, tough, and connects well with the Dem base and independents. We need to win, some southern and western states – I don't see Hillary or Obama doing either. Edwards can and would, as the nominee, I believe. Dems can't afford to write-off big sections of the country before the gen election.

    December 1, 2007 09:23 am at 9:23 am |
  5. JE, Watertown, NY

    There is a constant bashing of Hillary here at CNN blogs or media, whether it be from the republicans or obama/edwards supporters.

    About 4 weeks ago, when Hillary did not do well in one debate, there were joys in the media criticising her for many days. Then two weeks later, when she did quite well, and Obama mumbled and stumbled in the las vegas debate, there have been little praise for Hillary from the media or blogs here.

    Hillary 08.

    December 1, 2007 09:42 am at 9:42 am |
  6. Danielle NH

    What is wrong with IOWANS????You’re starting to show the rest of the country, your lack good judgment.
    You’re wasting your vote and jeopardizing this great country from moving forward, by supporting an oprah fan for President!!!!
    IOWANS ARE LOOKING VERY STUPID
    a vote for obama is a vote for a republican oprah

    December 1, 2007 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  7. jw, canadian,ok

    To Mark,LA – I got to agree with the other posters, that was a real stupid post. I didn't know you had access to computers in the insane asylum.

    December 1, 2007 10:42 am at 10:42 am |
  8. Druie Cavender Flemington, NJ

    The next President will inherit a multitude of disasters from the Bush "administration". We need the brightest, most experienced, and toughest candidate we can find. Although it's not necessarily her fault, Hillary Clinton is too polarizing and will not be able to attract Republican support in Congress to enact her ideas even if she does get elected. Barack Obama is simply too young and inexperienced. And I don't think John Edwards can win – will the country vote for a trial lawyer who has made a fortune suing people?

    Joe Biden has been in the Senate for 35 years, and he clearly has the most experience in, and the deepest understanding of, foreign policy issues. I'm certain that the Republicans will attack him as a career politician, but his positions are certainly more substantiative than any of the Republicans.

    December 1, 2007 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  9. fair,washington,dc

    At the end of the day it looks like Hillary or Obama will win the Democratic nomination. I am a Hillary supporter so I will be disappointed if she doesn't win, but I will regroup and back whoever the Democratic candidate is and I hope all Democrats will do the same when the time comes. I say this after watching the Senate race in Md where five African American Democratic elected officials right beore the election had a press conference and came out endorsing the Republican African American candidate and their reasoning was they were showing their displeasure that the Md democratic party didn't get behind Kweisi Mfume ( because he was African American according to their logic) who ran in the primary and lost to caucasian Jim Webb. It was one of the most distasteful things I've seen in politics and I hope if any of them run for re-election the MD voters remember that atrocity and vote them out of office. This 08 election isn't about race, gender or anything else other then putting our best candidate forward and hoping we get a Dem in the WH. Yes I posted this in other places because I think this is very important, although Jim Webb did eventually win , the race was so close there was talk of a recount, we've seen close races in the general election enough now that we should realize every vote counts.

    December 1, 2007 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  10. Robert kellogg, Charlotte, North Carolina

    The polls do show a tightening of the numbers in Iowa, but the voter turn out is what matters. I feel at times like screaming. As a Hillary supporter I get so frustrated at peoples lack of individuality, common sense and thinking on their own. I hear the same rhetoric spewed out day after day. Whats even more appalling is the Obama supporters who have started saying the same things. They sound more republican than the republicans do. Look, the lady cant be all the things you say she is. There has been a great media assault to see her fall and so far she has risen to the challenge. I predict that if people actually think for them selves and listen to reason, Hillary will be their choice for president. It's time for the democrats to stop demonizing their own and start comeing together in order to oust the republicans from the oval office. Obamas people need to get a grip on reality. Stop pointing fingers and calling names. it might just come back to haunt you. Hillary is not perfect and has never professed to be, neither is Obama. he distorts the truth everyday. he has twisted the meaning of universal health care and made a mockery of what presidential experience should be. Wake up Obamites, you have been snowed by a crafty politician who will be more of a Hollywood showman than Bill Clinton ever thought of being. Time is running out. Iowans, PLEASE look beyond the media bashing and see Hillary for who she really is. If you do that she will win Iowa.

    December 1, 2007 08:38 pm at 8:38 pm |
  11. Roger, Aurora Illinois

    I don't know how accurately those poll numbers are. I do know however they come from all over the state evenly. Email's within the Richardson campaign show him gaining ground, as much as 15%, a secure 4th while the big three battle in a statistical tie in the 20s. Richardson campaign analyst Paul Maslin is not new to this polling business. He did this for a number of candidates in all sorts of races and have plenty of experience in the field.

    But even if it's true that Richardson fell harshly, remember in 2004 the poll numbers Senator Kerry was managing. Or the single digit ratings his would-be VP was pulling in.

    December 2, 2007 03:49 am at 3:49 am |
  12. STOP OBAMA

    Another example of the continued dishonestly and manipulation by Obama.
    Barack Obama is drawing Hugh skepticism RECRUITING NON-IOWANS TO THE IOWAN caucus. NO OTHER CANDIDATES are systematically trying to manipulate the Iowa caucuses like Obama
    “Barack Obama” brochure “If you are not from Iowa, you can come back for the Iowa caucus and caucus in your neighborhood. The brochure gives instructions about where to call or go online for information about where to caucus”

    David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register, the state’s leading political commentator, wrote “The Illinois Caucus” that the effort to increase participation by out-of-staters “risks offending long-time Iowa residents.” And he’s correct! “Given that students in Iowa’s colleges and universities are from Obama’s neighboring home state of Illinois, the effort could net him thousands of additional votes on caucus night,” Yespen wrote. The Iowa caucus ought to be for Iowans. NO OTHER POLITICAN Democrat or Republican is sending bogus literature recruiting out-of-state voters to manipulate IOWA Caucuses,
    Chris Dodd for President Iowa State Director Julie Andreeff Jensen said in a statement on Saturday:

    “I was deeply disappointed to read today about the Obama campaign's attempt to recruit thousands of out-of-state residents to come to Iowa for the caucuses. ... ‘New Politics’ shouldn't be about scheming to evade either the spirit or the letter of the rules that guide the process. That may be the way politics is played in Chicago, but not in Iowa."
    As an IOWAN who was on the fence between Sen Clinton and obama, this seals my vote for CLINTON! This guy is showing he will cheat, lie and steal to win; we already have that in a President. CLINTON IS THE TRUE CHANGE IN 2008

    December 2, 2007 08:06 am at 8:06 am |
  13. Citroen, Hagerstown, MD

    Biden-Webb '08!

    December 2, 2007 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  14. shawna, nj

    While the polls help people get an idea of where candidates stand, i think it's very important not to get wrapped up in them. They are just soft numebrs, they are not actual results. Obama has been gaining on Hillary, but even less attention has been paid to John Edwards who has also slowly but steadily been creeping his way up in the polls. It seems that everyday a new poll is releasing about Hillary losing 1% in NH or Obama gains 3% in SC. We should be focusing more on the issues, not who is currently ahead in this lap of the race.

    December 3, 2007 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  15. Jessica

    Despite Hillary's supposed pacitilol savvy, she has never missed a chance to demonstrate her tin ear. Up til now, though, her more egregious statements have faded quickly due to an adoring press and her general air of saintliness. The nearer she gets to actually running for office, the more her hard core of elitism is going to show.I suppose in general, I have no quarrel with elitism. Some people are better than others. That does not grant them license to run everyone else's lives, however. I admit to a smug sense of superiority at times, but keeping charge of my own life is a full time occupation. And to be truthful I have not done such a stellar job that I believe it qualifies me to do it for the rest of the population.

    April 27, 2012 03:57 am at 3:57 am |
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