December 4th, 2007
11:17 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani down big

Giuliani's support has dropped 9 points in one month, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race in both parties isn't just tightening in the key early-voting states, but across the rest of country as well, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday evening.

One month before Iowa and New Hampshire voters kick off the presidential primary season, the poll seems to show nationwide support for frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani has dropped considerably from this time a month ago.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is down 9 percentage points in one month while Clinton, the senator from New York, has seen her support drop 11 points. Both Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began.

"The movement away from the frontrunners may be a sign that the public is starting to pay attention to the election, and may be moving beyond the "name recognition" phase," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It's an early indication of what might happen after Iowa and New Hampshire, when a few second-tier candidates will get instant name recognition to rival that of Clinton and Giuliani."

One-time dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee has shot up to second place in the national survey, now 9 percentage points behind Giuliani, 25 percent to 16 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are one point behind at 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is just behind the pack with 12 percent.

Responding to the poll, Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said, "We’ve been saying from the beginning that this race was always going to tighten. But when you look at the numbers, Rudy has been consistently leading in every major national poll since February. Unlike some other candidates, Mayor Giuliani has steady strength and real staying power."

On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead now stands at 15 percentage points over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 24 percent. In last month's poll Clinton's lead was 28 percent over the Illinois senator. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 15 percent, meanwhile, with the rest of the field in single digits.

While Clinton's support is down, Holland notes no single Democrat is the direct beneficiary.

"No single candidate has emerged as the ABC - Anybody-but-Clinton - candidate," he said. "Edwards went up 3, Obama went up 3, [New Mexico Gov. Bill] Richardson went up 2, [Delaware Sen. Joe] Biden went up 2. That's how Clinton maintains a double-digit lead - Democrats may be moving away from her, but they aren’t moving toward one of her rivals."

The poll surveyed 425 Republicans and leaning Republicans and 494 Democrats and leaning Democrats on November 30 through December 2. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related video: CNN's Candy Crowley reports it's a dead heat in Iowa with a month to go

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. demwit

    Geee, I wonder who the unbiased journalists at CNN want to win..

    December 4, 2007 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  2. John Karsten, Virginia Beach, VA

    Now this gives me a nice warm and fuzzy feeling inside. I hope these number keep falling and falling. Keep it up Obama!!

    OBAMA 2008!!!!!!!

    December 4, 2007 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  3. Michael Sheridan, Grand Rapids, MI

    National political polls before the first primary are less meaningful than pre-season college football rankings.

    Clinton is allegedly way ahead nationally – but if she doesn't win Iowa, her national numbers will drop faster than Dick Cheney's hunting partners, because it will peel away that tissue-thin veneer of "inevitability". And her current performances in Iowa polls are starting to make me think that "if" in the previous sentence should be a "when".

    December 4, 2007 09:27 am at 9:27 am |
  4. Jen, miami, florida

    I agree 100% of what African-American state Sen. Robert Ford said, when he announced he was backing Hillary Clinton.

    "Everybody else on the ballot is doomed," Ford said, explaining what would happen if Obama were nominated. "Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he's black and he's at the top of the ticket—we'd lose the House, the Senate, and the governors and everything."

    Stop Obama. Save the Democrat Party.

    December 4, 2007 09:28 am at 9:28 am |
  5. Peggy Upton, Davisburg MI

    What about Ron Paul? I think CNN is forgetting the one candidate whose support continues to grow!

    December 4, 2007 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  6. Bill

    "Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began."

    America, do you have any idea of how ridiculous this is? The election season should not begin for another six weeks and it has already been going on for over a year. We do not need so long to pick our candidates for president. The only purpose this long, drawn-out "election season" serves is to drive up the cost of running for public office. We are being manipulated and should be refusing to participate until the year 2008 begins.

    December 4, 2007 09:31 am at 9:31 am |
  7. p-brain, Bucyrus, OH

    All a bunch of stinkers.

    Honestly, America! Are THESE the jokers YOU want for President?

    December 4, 2007 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  8. Steve, Landing, NJ

    Cool, this'll be interesting. Though, personally, I can't wait for the primaries to be over. I've been appalled at the behavior of the democrats thus far–not the candidates, who have actually been far less vitriolic than I would have expected, but of their supporters who yell and whine and insult each other and the other candidates. Accept it guys, the Democrats have a really good field here. At minimum, Clinton, Obama, and Biden, and Richardson are all much more attractive candidates than Kerry was in the last election, and Edwards has really made progress in shifting his image away from the inoffensive, ineffectual vice presidential candidate he made. Whoever wins the nomination, we're going to be in very good shape to win nationally, and we're going to have someone who's got some actual policy knowledge to work with. Compare this to the Republican field (in which even the Republicans, according to polling, are immensely dissatisfied) and we're looking pretty golden.

    December 4, 2007 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  9. Anonymous

    Maybe we will be saved from the Witch yet. Go Edwards/Obama!

    December 4, 2007 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  10. karen , nj.

    that's because Hillary is a control freek and rudy has been outshone by romney and huckabee.

    December 4, 2007 09:35 am at 9:35 am |
  11. You Know Who Tampa, FL


    Now is the time you will see the candidates reaching for the "dirty". Hill & Giul will dig for something lame on their opponents. Did anyone catch Guil snagging Romney about the illegals working at his mansion? It made Romney look like a schmuck, but it's true...are you supposed to request papers from everyone who speaks Spanish in this country? ...'Cause living in Florida, people that ARE residents don't even TRY to speak English...I worked with the general public & witnessed it DAILY!!! Immigration is a tough issue. It definitely needs reform, but first, government needs to ensure they don't get sued for "racism" for confusing a Spanish-only speaking resident for an illegal. New law: To live in America is to SPEAK ENGLISH. No more "Press 1 for English." That's ridiculous. Do France, Mexico, Poland, Italy, Germany, etc., have press 1 for THEIR OWN language? People need to enter LEGALLY & speak the primary language. You come here & reap the benefits of a society, but don't have the common courtesy to speak the language. What does that say about America.

    December 4, 2007 09:38 am at 9:38 am |
  12. hatmatters

    Obama supporters are wasting their vote. Forget the South. Do you think white people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida are going to vote for him. Not going to happen. An Obama nomination is wasted vote. Democrats need to wise up or we are just going to give the Republicans the White House again. Don't be a fool.

    December 4, 2007 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  13. Chris, Washington, D.C.

    Is the rise in Huckabee support entirely from him getting Chuck Norris' endorsement? I think we live in a crazy enough world that it's true.

    Anyways, I'm happy to see Clinton's lead fall and Mitt Romney in fourth place, since they're my least favorite candidates on either side.

    December 4, 2007 09:39 am at 9:39 am |
  14. Ron, TX

    Wow. Clinton sure is tanking. I guess that pretty much proves that AP poll -released- yesterday, that was actually three weeks old, was pretty much -three weeks old-. And the polls released a few days ago that showed Obama climbing in the early states, polls -actually done- a few days ago, were more accurate.

    After Clinton actually took a pathetic jab at Obama for saying in -KINDERGARTEN- that he wanted to be President (I'm serious. She really did...), I won't be surprised when she continues to tank.

    December 4, 2007 09:40 am at 9:40 am |
  15. Bill, Atlanta, GA

    No surprise here. Both Republican and Democrat candidates have shown during the debates they can be effective leaders. The only thing missing from this election were the voters who finally decided to wake up and take notice.

    December 4, 2007 09:41 am at 9:41 am |
  16. Ahtram, Oakton, Virginia

    What I want to know is: What's happened to Hillary's "Plantation Theory" when it comes to dealing with Barack Obama? Remember when Hillary made that really gross statement that the Bush Administration was treating blacks like they still lived on a "planation"? (One of the all-time most pandering, incendiary statements in history.)

    Well–why is Hillary being so mean to Barack Obama? His being black and all that? She must think she's the owner of a plantation–you know, a nice big white house, like Tara.

    Well, I better watch it. You never know which of Hillary's headquarters might blow up as a result of my pointing out Hillary's blatant racism.

    December 4, 2007 09:41 am at 9:41 am |
  17. LinnieFB, Corona CA

    So much for 'inevitability.'

    December 4, 2007 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  18. Daniel, NY

    Check out this list of polls from very red states (Alabama, Kansas, Kentucky, Georgia) that show Hillary Clinton is very competitive - she is in single-digits of Rudy Giuliani in all of them.

    December 4, 2007 09:43 am at 9:43 am |
  19. Chris, Toledo, OH

    The media is ridiculous. These polls aren't real.

    December 4, 2007 09:46 am at 9:46 am |
  20. Mike S., New Orleans, Louisiana

    American voters should have the option of "D – None of the Above."

    Or perhaps we could vote for
    A: ___ endorsed by Chuck Norris
    B: ___ endorsed by Oprah Winfrey
    C: ___ endorsed by Paris Hilton

    December 4, 2007 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  21. Shawnie - Grants Pass, OR

    Giuliani is gone...

    December 4, 2007 09:53 am at 9:53 am |
  22. Lee, Ann Arbor, Michigan

    Obviously, the more the American people see the REAL HILLARY, the more they're going to DISLIKE HER.

    Even the New York Times is running an article today saying that many democratic House and Senate candidates DON'T WANT HILLARY to run because she is TOO POLORIZING. They will cost them their elections!!!


    December 4, 2007 09:54 am at 9:54 am |
  23. Ben, Ann Arbor, MI

    The first thing that struck me, was that Romney is in fifth place amongst the five Republicans mentioned, and he is listed as being fourth. I thought one of the previous 19 comments would have pointed that out. If two people are tied for third, they are actually tied for 3rd-4th.

    December 4, 2007 09:56 am at 9:56 am |
  24. John, Raleigh

    "Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is a close fourth with 12 percent."

    Actually he is fifth, with Rudy, Huckabee, McCain and Thompson ahead of him.

    Interesting that he gets much more time than the McCain and Huckabee who are well ahead of him. And more time than Edwards who is 3rd on the Democratic side.

    December 4, 2007 10:04 am at 10:04 am |
  25. Wynter, Loudon, NH

    With all the heavy advertisements being put on the air for McCain, Obama, and the other second tier candidates, its normal to see some bump for their buck. What will really matter is if it will stay up there or will it fade away when people go to vote in the primary.

    Telling it like I see it,

    December 4, 2007 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
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