December 4th, 2007
11:17 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani down big

Giuliani's support has dropped 9 points in one month, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race in both parties isn't just tightening in the key early-voting states, but across the rest of country as well, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday evening.

One month before Iowa and New Hampshire voters kick off the presidential primary season, the poll seems to show nationwide support for frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani has dropped considerably from this time a month ago.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is down 9 percentage points in one month while Clinton, the senator from New York, has seen her support drop 11 points. Both Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began.

"The movement away from the frontrunners may be a sign that the public is starting to pay attention to the election, and may be moving beyond the "name recognition" phase," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It's an early indication of what might happen after Iowa and New Hampshire, when a few second-tier candidates will get instant name recognition to rival that of Clinton and Giuliani."

One-time dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee has shot up to second place in the national survey, now 9 percentage points behind Giuliani, 25 percent to 16 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are one point behind at 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is just behind the pack with 12 percent.

Responding to the poll, Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said, "We’ve been saying from the beginning that this race was always going to tighten. But when you look at the numbers, Rudy has been consistently leading in every major national poll since February. Unlike some other candidates, Mayor Giuliani has steady strength and real staying power."

On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead now stands at 15 percentage points over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 24 percent. In last month's poll Clinton's lead was 28 percent over the Illinois senator. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 15 percent, meanwhile, with the rest of the field in single digits.

While Clinton's support is down, Holland notes no single Democrat is the direct beneficiary.

"No single candidate has emerged as the ABC - Anybody-but-Clinton - candidate," he said. "Edwards went up 3, Obama went up 3, [New Mexico Gov. Bill] Richardson went up 2, [Delaware Sen. Joe] Biden went up 2. That's how Clinton maintains a double-digit lead - Democrats may be moving away from her, but they aren’t moving toward one of her rivals."

The poll surveyed 425 Republicans and leaning Republicans and 494 Democrats and leaning Democrats on November 30 through December 2. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related video: CNN's Candy Crowley reports it's a dead heat in Iowa with a month to go

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. Mark g, BBH, ME

    Someday soon, you shall have to admit that Dr. Ron Paul is legit, I am shamed by the medias mass manipulation. Huckabee is not even going to survive the primaries, he has no money.

    Wait until the 16th, you want a revolution, your about to see one, ideologically speaking of course.

    December 4, 2007 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  2. Darrel Schmidt, Iowa

    What an about Face For CNN and the polls as reported on Clinton Yesterday and now today.
    I knew quite well CNN was wrong Yesterday showing a surge for Clinton.

    Get out and listen to the People as I do and the Support for her is in a free fall. Sort of tired of the same old same old political retorik! Time is now for change and Clean up the mess from the Past 15 Years of puting corporate interest ahead of Middle Class working Americans that speak English.
    Vote Independant this time around
    Then the clean up process will take place

    December 4, 2007 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  3. mickey,sanmarcos,tx

    Who is surprised about this they have been campaining way to long, people are bound to get tired of them sooner or later. The media is pushing Huckabee so during the general election time they can shred him to pieces about his religious beliefs.

    December 4, 2007 10:10 am at 10:10 am |
  4. Will, NYC

    "Stop Obama. Save the Democrat Party.

    Posted By Jen, miami, florida : December 4, 2007 9:28 am"

    This person is a republican, true democrats do not refer to ourselves as 'the democrat' party, that's How George Bush refers to us. We are the DemocratIC party. Shill somewhere else, republican. We all know you conservatives hope and pray it's Hillary.

    December 4, 2007 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  5. Ben, Keene, NH

    After seeing all of these people for months here in New Hampshire, it's becoming clear that when you look at Romney, Clinton, and Giuliani, none of them are authentic people. They're so scripted, calculating, ambitious, and yet timid that they don't any signs of genuineness. And if they're not genuine, how are we to get a sense of what they really think and believe - other than they desperately want to be president? Support is squishy for them because whatever humanity they contain can't emerge from the endless image management that candidates too often succumb to. At least with McCain, Biden, Paul, and Kucinich, you know they're there because their passion for issues outweighs their consuming ambition for high office.

    December 4, 2007 10:13 am at 10:13 am |
  6. Ivelisse

    to John Karsten and all the Obama supporters around here......

    Hillary's number may be going down.... BUT OBAMA'S NUMBERS ARE NOT GOING UP....

    just stating the obvious....

    December 4, 2007 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  7. Wes, Columbia, SC

    you can't put much into these skewered polls. they are merely a product of the media to condition us to think a certain way. they are not great indicators. remember how Kerry was supposedly trouncing Bush but we know how that turned out.

    December 4, 2007 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  8. Steve, Landing, NJ

    I'm frankly appalled that democrats are considering not voting for Obama because he's black. I don't care if it's cynicism about his chances rather than racism, it's still wrong. If you think he's the best candidate, vote for him. And, oddly enough, most of the women I know think it would be harder for a woman to get elected than a black man. I disagree, but polling actually supports them–my a thin margin (something like 95% to 92%) people indicate that they would be more willing to vote for a black presidential candidate than a female presidential candidate. Maybe they just don't want to admit racism to the pollsters (or sexism for that matter), but I don't see why "don't vote for Obama because he's black and can't be elected" makes much more sense than "don't vote for Clinton because she's a woman and can't be elected".

    People, in general, indicate MUCH more resistance to Mormons being elected, and yet Romney marches on.

    December 4, 2007 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  9. Brandie Tampa, FL

    To Jen, Miami, FL:

    Just because you & other Americans MAY be racist & Robert Ford blind, the entire democratic party is supposed to support YOU? Maybe you should run for president. You sound like a JEN-ius with great rationale.

    So, myself, as a woman, I say Hillary is a woman, therefore, there are too many men in the world, they won't vote for her, the numbers don't add up...we should abort Hillary???

    There are too many people that don't bother to think before making ignorant posts.

    Everyone put the Wright brothers down when they wanted to fly. So? When was the last time YOU flew? Doesn't seem so crazy now does it? If America wants a change, Obama is a breath of fresh air. I have nothing against Hillary & would NOT make ignorant, arrogant comments against her. I don't even think You, Jen, or Ford are stupid, but you are the non-believers. It's people that think like you that would have America still in a horse & buggy. If everyone listened to comments from people like you & took them to heart, we wouldn't have anything worthwhile. Cars, planes, medical equipment-NOTHING.

    December 4, 2007 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  10. Howard, Huntington, NY

    Jen: "Everybody else on the ballot is doomed," Ford said, explaining what would happen if Obama were nominated. "Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he's black and he's at the top of the ticket—we'd lose the House, the Senate, and the governors and everything."

    Stop Obama. Save the Democrat Party.

    That is ridiculous and self-defeating. With outdated attitudes like that, we'll never move forward as a country. It's really shocking that a black man would refuse to support a candidate because they're also black.

    December 4, 2007 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  11. J Houston, TX

    American voters should have the option of "D – None of the Above."

    Or perhaps we could vote for
    A: ___ endorsed by Chuck Norris
    B: ___ endorsed by Oprah Winfrey
    C: ___ endorsed by Paris Hilton

    For the first time in my life, I think this election has shown how pitiful the system has gotten. At this point I wish they'd amend the constitution and add in

    E. Arnold Schwarzenager

    December 4, 2007 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  12. anon New York, NY

    The New York Times ran a front-page story this morning about Democratic candidates for Congress in the heartland who will be in danger of losing if Clinton is at the top of the ticket.

    Hillary CLinton could care less if Madame Speaker Pelosi loses her job- she just cares about herself.

    December 4, 2007 10:21 am at 10:21 am |
  13. Helen Back, Andover MA

    Note again no mention of Ron Paul... maybe that's why their numbers have dropped considerably. The US is waking up.

    December 4, 2007 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  14. dmw, roeland park, ks

    When polls are based on so few people, in this case 494 Democrats and 425 Republicans, that poll can not be taken seriously as fact of the end result.

    As logical, intelligent electorates, we need to really take notice of the methodology of these polls. Polls can slant anyway based on HOW questions were posed. So, I take these small sample polls with a grain of salt.

    I say that Democrats are killing each other with how much hatred is being spewed by the supporters of these candidates.

    I do feel that when all is said and done, Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. But, if Obama gets the nomination, then good for him; but the Democrats will lose the Presidency because no matter what anyone says, the South will NOT vote for a black man. Just look to Harold Ford, the Congressman from Tennessee who tried to run for the Senate seat there. He had experience for miles over his competitor, yet, in Tennessee they used the race card and Harold Ford lost. It will happen again with Obama and he will not win one Southern State.
    Just food for thought.

    December 4, 2007 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  15. Hillarylover in SA

    Obama supporters are wasting their vote. Forget the South. Do you think people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida are going to vote for him. Not going to happen. An Obama nomination is wasted vote. Democrats need to wise up or we are just going to give the Republicans the White House again. Don't be a fool.

    CLINTON 08

    Posted By hatmatters : December 4, 2007 9:39 am

    December 4, 2007 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  16. Liberal Chic

    That's too bad about Giuliani. As much as he's personaly repugnant, he's the most acceptable to most Americans (in my opinion, in any case). I would hate to even think about social conservatives in power again.

    But let's go, Hillary! Get your stuff together and go kick butt in Iowa!

    She can still kick this primary. Let's go.

    December 4, 2007 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  17. Nita - SA - TX

    I agree 100% of what African-American state Sen. Robert Ford said, when he announced he was backing Hillary Clinton.

    "Everybody else on the ballot is doomed," Ford said, explaining what would happen if Obama were nominated. "Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he's black and he's at the top of the ticket—we'd lose the House, the Senate, and the governors and everything."

    Stop Obama. Save the Democrat Party.

    Posted By Jen, miami, florida : December 4, 2007 9:28 am

    December 4, 2007 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
  18. Hoping in SA




    December 4, 2007 10:30 am at 10:30 am |
  19. Doug, New Jersey

    Almost every single liberal Democrat in America sees the people out in the streets of the middle east screaming for the teacher who allowed a student to name a teddy bear Mohammad to be killed as the same or even better people than Americans who are not liberal democrats. The proof is all over the internet, check out DemocracyUnderground and other sites that show you just how the average liberal democrat thinks and feels.

    Sure, the republicans suck, but this evil that is the liberal democrat and the hate that consumes their being is the last thing that any decent human being in America can and should support.

    Do you think that people should hold parades for and continue to support and vote for child molesters and murderers? If that's a no then you will be voting republican in November. The above is fact, check out Ted Kennedy and Mr. Studds, learn the truth, base your vote and support solely on the truth and facts, thank you.

    BTW, if this sound in truth and facts post makes it up on this site you will find further proof of the evil that is the liberal democrat below it, liberals show their true colors whenever someone posts the truth about what type of person most of them are.

    December 4, 2007 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  20. Tony, El Paso TX

    Why omit Ron Paul from the article? He is virtually tied with McCain and Thompson in the polls and he is raising more money than all of the Republican candidates.

    The CNN bias towards the supposed frontrunners is sickening.

    December 4, 2007 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  21. Michael, Orange, NJ

    I think the democratic party in general is doomed. Hillary started off good, but I don't know where the campaign is gooing. Obama is nothing but fluff and Edwards is a far-left lunatic. Its sad to say, the but the GOP has a deeper pool of candidates to choose from. I see another 4 years of GOP leadership. Joe BIden should and Richardson are my choices. I like Hillary, but she is too polarizing to win the presidency

    December 4, 2007 10:36 am at 10:36 am |
  22. Gerald R. San Antonio, Texas

    I think this is an example of the voters in both parties not wanting to have "buyer's remourse". H. Clinton's lack of character and integrity is starting to shine through and Giuliani's social liberalism is starting to really bother a good portion of Republicans. Huckabee will be next to see his numbers drop when his tax increases and spending hikes in Arkansas will become better known. You already see various conservative commentators becoming fearful of Huckabee.

    December 4, 2007 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  23. Monte Brown, New York, NY

    The new polls showing Hillary’s numbers drop are just an example of the ups and downs of politics and it shows America how many people are influenced by the hate, lies and demagoguery. They will reverse back in her favor. It is now time for Hillary to take her gloves off and hit hard at those who think that they can take away the opportunity for America to bring forth the change we NEED. The haters on the right and the egomaniacs on the left have already done their dirt. Now it’s time for them to feel the fire. Hillary has already been through this before and it's nothing new.

    Hillary’s poll numbers have dropped because she receives more scrutiny than other candidates. The Republican candidates might say that they want to run against Hillary, but they know that, should Hillary not be nominated, it would take a big burden off of their load and they would more than likely win. The Republicans are known for saying one thing and meaning another. The Democrats who bash Clinton, mainly Obama and Edwards, are not trying to win the primary on policy, but are using the negative attacks manufactured by the reactionaries to eat away at Hillary’s numbers. That is not fair, but it’s politics and is nothing unfamiliar to Hillary. She will not bout out. Instead she will let the people decide. Now it is time for her to make a contrast between her solid policies and the ying yang of the other candidates.

    American people should listen to Hillary Clinton instead of the haters, should form an opinion based on facts, not contempt and should vote accordingly. Please, please don’t listen to the haters. American people should be tired of the haters by now, especially the Hillary haters. People who say that they don’t want another 8 years of the Clintons really want a Republican in the White House. The Clinton’s policies are good for American values. People who say that Hillary Clinton’s unfavorable ratings make her unelectable are really right wing demagogues who try to use this absurd notion to influence others to not vote for Hillary. True Democrats would not utter any of this nonsense because true Democrats understand that the right wingers have been at Hillary for 15 years with their hate. The Obama and Edwards’s campaigns have tried to use the hate, lies and demagoguery to advance their own campaigns. That’s not a Democrat. That’s an egomaniacal opportunist.

    It is time for Hillary to get at the other Democrats so that she can win the primaries. I am confident that the American people just won’t buy into petty attacks. The American people will choose Hillary Clinton because she’s is the most qualified candidate, the most experienced candidate and she’s READY TO LEAD ON DAY ONE.

    December 4, 2007 10:39 am at 10:39 am |
  24. John Karsten, Virginia Beach, VA

    Posted By hatmatters : December 4, 2007 9:39 am

    “Obama supporters are wasting their vote. Forget the South. Do you think white people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida are going to vote for him. Not going to happen. An Obama nomination is wasted vote. Democrats need to wise up or we are just going to give the Republicans the White House again. Don't be a fool.”

    Sir, I am white and from the south. I would rather vote for him any day than for HRC. I will not succumb to threats that I should vote for her because she is the only one that can win. B.S. You call it a wasted vote, I call it MY VOICE and it will be heard.

    I do agree with you that it will be hard for him to get elected because of his skin color: not impossible, but God dammit, enough is enough. Here we are some 231 years later and still dealing with race. I am also in the military and I serve with many people of different skin colors, but guess what, we all bleed RED. If we are still hung up on race, then we are still in the dark ages if you ask me. I am ready for REAL change in the white house, not the same ole crap.
    Oh, by the way, if that is how people decide to vote in the South (skin color), then I am moving to Canada. If this is still an issue now, then I guess it will be forever and I do not want this for my country. I am not serving my country for this backward way of thinking. I do it for my country’s betterment and protection not to protect a bunch of southern white people who hate people not like them. PEACE OUT!!!!!!

    December 4, 2007 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  25. james, Minneapoils, MN

    Harold Ford Jr. is a coward and a man of little integrity. He is just mad because he lost cause in a tight race and the GOP used the race card against him.

    December 4, 2007 10:42 am at 10:42 am |
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