December 4th, 2007
11:17 AM ET
6 years ago

Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani down big

Giuliani's support has dropped 9 points in one month, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race in both parties isn't just tightening in the key early-voting states, but across the rest of country as well, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday evening.

One month before Iowa and New Hampshire voters kick off the presidential primary season, the poll seems to show nationwide support for frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani has dropped considerably from this time a month ago.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is down 9 percentage points in one month while Clinton, the senator from New York, has seen her support drop 11 points. Both Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began.

"The movement away from the frontrunners may be a sign that the public is starting to pay attention to the election, and may be moving beyond the "name recognition" phase," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It's an early indication of what might happen after Iowa and New Hampshire, when a few second-tier candidates will get instant name recognition to rival that of Clinton and Giuliani."

One-time dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee has shot up to second place in the national survey, now 9 percentage points behind Giuliani, 25 percent to 16 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are one point behind at 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is just behind the pack with 12 percent.

Responding to the poll, Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said, "We’ve been saying from the beginning that this race was always going to tighten. But when you look at the numbers, Rudy has been consistently leading in every major national poll since February. Unlike some other candidates, Mayor Giuliani has steady strength and real staying power."

On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead now stands at 15 percentage points over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 24 percent. In last month's poll Clinton's lead was 28 percent over the Illinois senator. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 15 percent, meanwhile, with the rest of the field in single digits.

While Clinton's support is down, Holland notes no single Democrat is the direct beneficiary.

"No single candidate has emerged as the ABC - Anybody-but-Clinton - candidate," he said. "Edwards went up 3, Obama went up 3, [New Mexico Gov. Bill] Richardson went up 2, [Delaware Sen. Joe] Biden went up 2. That's how Clinton maintains a double-digit lead - Democrats may be moving away from her, but they aren’t moving toward one of her rivals."

The poll surveyed 425 Republicans and leaning Republicans and 494 Democrats and leaning Democrats on November 30 through December 2. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related video: CNN's Candy Crowley reports it's a dead heat in Iowa with a month to go

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. Dan, TX

    As another white Southerner, I can assure you Obama is more popular than Clinton. It is a joke to say otherwise. Clinton has 25-30% hard core support from the democrat side. The rest of the democrats are very uncomfortable with her. The vast majority of independents and republicans really dislike her.

    But I want to talk about Clinton's recent attacks on Obama.

    In response to Clinton's attacks, where are the newspaper articles supporting her and saying she is correct? Why aren't we seeing this? Oh right, because what she is saying doesn't hold up to scrutiny. She has shown herself to have poor judgment and to surround herself with poor advisors.

    Obama is my choice. But Edwards, Biden, Richardson, Dodd, these authentic people are all better choices than Clinton. I would vote for any of them. I would never vote for Clinton. If Clinton is the nominee I'll be voting for the republican or a third party candidate.

    December 4, 2007 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  2. Yolanda, SC

    So Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton may have lost some polling numbers But she is still ahead on all national polls right? Senator Barack Hussein Obama and Senator John Reid Edwards are still trailing her by double digits.

    December 4, 2007 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  3. EE

    hatmatters

    Mr Hatematters. Continue to wallow in dispair alone. Iowa is 90% white and they are overwhelmingly for Obama, the South has turned their back against Clinton, read the polls.

    Stop demonizing the South u hatemonger. The states u have named have shown in other elections they are not racists as u are.

    Get ready for Mr Obama/Ewards as President/VP of the USA .

    By the way Mr Obama is biracial not black nor white.He is simply an american period!

    December 4, 2007 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  4. Steve, Landing, NJ

    dmw in roeland park–

    The south's unlikely to go Democratic anyway. But, it should be pointed out, the southern states tend to have higher percentages of black voters. If Obama could actually convince that historically-non-voting group to turn out it could be good for the country, and for the democrats.

    Michael in Orange–

    It's funny you say the GOP has a deeper pool of candidates, because polling consistently shows most Republicans are unhappy with their choices. Giuliani's viewed as liberal, especially socially, Romney is a northern flip-flopping Mormon, Thompson is Hollywood, McCain has taken several unpopular positions on torture, flag-burning, etc. etc., and even Huckabee is tainted by raising taxes. Democrats are polled as being much happier with their field, in general. Also, national polling consistently shows the Democratic candidates tied or with an edge over the Republican candidates in most match-ups.

    Monte Brown in New York–

    The idea that you equate being a "true Democrat" with supporting Hillary Clinton is absurd. A "true Democrat" will go with whatever candidate they feel will best advance liberal causes. If someone else happens to think Clinton won't do that, they shouldn't be criticized for it–Hillary Clinton is not queen of the democratic party. And that kind of thinking is exactly why some of us are concerned about electing another Clinton to office. This is America, the people should rule, and "the people" should not be shorthand for "the people named Bush or Clinton".

    Preferring another candidate to Clinton is not "hating" it is "a difference of opinion". Accept it.

    Patricia Gonzalez–

    In what way are Clinton and Giuliani the only "viable" candidates? Clinton is still dominating national polls of course, but Giuliani's lead is much smaller, and he is definitely lagging in terms of momentum. Right now, Romney, Huckabee, and Thompson are cannibalizing each other because the conservative base of the Republican party can't decide which non-Giuliani candidate to vote for. After the ealry primary states (where Giuliani is all but guaranteed to fail), there will be a slew of news stories about which of them is emerging as front-runner, and after that you'll see a much stronger contention against Giuliani. His nomination is far from inevitable–in fact, his chances are probably only marginally better than Huckabee's or Romney's.

    December 4, 2007 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  5. Kashia Jackson Brooklyn New York

    It's an absolute joke that Hillary Clinton tells voters she's the most qualified candidate. She was a lawyer in a small law firm in Arkansas, and then spent eight years in the White House trying to push socialized medicine on the American people and while her husband repeatedly had affairs with other women she blamed all her problems on "the vast right wing conspiracy." I'm a life long Democrat and will never vote for this phony. She is by far the most polarizing individual ever to run for the presidency and god help us all if this nasty person becomes president. She has no convictions and no beliefs except power and lying, and as Obama gets closer in the polls, she shows what she's all about with her mudslinging and dirty politics and high tech lynching of Obama.

    December 4, 2007 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  6. Micahel Guinn, Ventura, CA

    There's a reason Sen. Clinton is down big-time in the polls. Anyone who is even marginally involved has seen that the "strong, experienced(?) leader" has a case of double-speak and Sen. Obama continues to gain strength.
    For those who say Obama can't win- they said that about JFK and look what happened.
    He brings hope and courage to a field of same-ole-song politicians. His LACK OF EXPERIENCE in Washington is NOT a negative thing!
    It's time America.
    Obama 08!

    December 4, 2007 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  7. RonPaul 2008, Columbus, OH

    Where is Ron Paul? Why does CNN continue to ignore him?

    If he's truly, legitimately behind, then state so and back your findings. But since he's ahead of many of the other candidates in both the polls and fundraising, it's negligent on CNN's part to continue to omit him.

    December 4, 2007 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  8. Tom - Dedham, Mass

    I think this is an example of the voters in both parties not wanting to have "buyer's remourse". H. Clinton's lack of character and integrity is starting to shine through and Giuliani's social liberalism is starting to really bother a good portion of Republicans. Huckabee will be next to see his numbers drop when his tax increases and spending hikes in Arkansas will become better known. You already see various conservative commentators becoming fearful of Huckabee.

    Posted By Gerald R. San Antonio, Texas : December 4, 2007 10:38 am

    You stole my thunder Gerald, as your points are valid as hell.

    It is funny how CNN in writing this mentions Hillary's and Rudy's numbers dipping BECAUSE people are now paying attention.

    Huckabee is the flavor of the month much like Thompson was. It will still come down to Romney and Rudy and Hillarity and Obama.

    May the best man win..........

    December 4, 2007 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  9. Darrel Lone Rock Iowa

    What an change for cnn to report the polls on clinton yesterday clinton was in a surge and today she is falling?

    The Middle Class working Americans that have not been represented in the past 15 years will vote for a clean up and when they do hillary and anyone like her will truly know what a free fall they will be taking.Enough of the past. It was thee most, dimm/corrupt/wag the finger lying/self serving/ politicians, we have ever seen in public display. enough already/ term limitations for starters/ line item veto to curb ear marks and pork barrel tactics/ If it don't stand on it own it should not stand/ The tit for tat mentality of washington is wrong! Even stupid, as it don't pass the common sense test .
    common sense is important to me.
    Vote Independant next time/

    December 4, 2007 11:28 am at 11:28 am |
  10. John Karsten, Virginia Beach, VA

    It is time for Hillary to get at the other Democrats so that she can win the primaries. I am confident that the American people just won’t buy into petty attacks. The American people will choose Hillary Clinton because she’s is the most qualified candidate, the most experienced candidate and she’s READY TO LEAD ON DAY ONE.
    Posted By Monte Brown, New York, NY : December 4, 2007 10:39 am

    Mr. Brown, may I ask you what experience or qualifications are you talking about? If I am not mistaken, she was NOT the president, only the first lady. Like I have said before, just because you are having sex with the president, does not make you qualified or experienced. If that is your thinking sir, Monaca could run, right? Experience my butt. She then goes off to your state and runs for senate???? What is that? Why didn’t she go back to Arkansas? Why New York? Because she only wants this job for one reason, and that is to be the FIRST, not necessarily the BEST!!!!!!!!

    Obama 2008!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    December 4, 2007 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  11. Zeke, Tustin, CA

    Who cares CNN. How about the headline with who the poll leaders are now. That would suffice.

    December 4, 2007 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  12. scott,manchester NH

    i absolutely have to say..i just read a comment about "america hopefully starting to understand that [hillary and rudy]are nasty, mean spirited, cutthroat politicians"....??????????
    i've been to plenty of hillary campaign stops and those comments are about THE most bizarre i've read...
    the real question is: does someone who write that stuff have any idea HOW nasty, meanspirited and cutthroat.....washington is????
    the only way to neutralize THAT...is to have a change from the last hundred years of men in charge...

    December 4, 2007 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  13. gilliganscorner

    We have the candidate that comes along once in a lifetime. His voting record is untarnished, he is a ten term Congressman, and he is the best educated politicians out there.

    America, a candidate like him comes along once in a lifetime. The military-industrial complex, the mainstream media, the big banks, the Fed, the waterboarders, and the IRS don’t like what he is doing, hence all of the media censorship surrounding his campaign.

    For the love of God, your children, and your Country, and all else you hold dear, vote this man President.

    Vote Ron Paul.

    Consider this quote:

    "Capital must protect itself in every possible manner by combination and legislation. Debts must be collected, bonds and mortgages must be foreclosed as rapidly as possible. When, through a process of law, the common people lose their homes they will become more docile and more easily governed through the influence of the strong arm of government, applied by a central power of wealth under control of leading financiers. This truth is well known among our principal men now engaged in forming an imperialism of Capital to govern the world. By dividing the voters through the political party system, we can get them to expend their energies in fighting over questions of no importance. Thus by discreet action we can secure for ourselves what has been so well planned and so successfully accomplished.

    – US Bankers Magazine, Aug 25, 1924

    Understand what is happening. Wake up. Vote Ron Paul

    December 4, 2007 11:35 am at 11:35 am |
  14. Z, St. Louis, MO.

    Yet again, the polls show the truth.
    The voters have to choose not who's
    better, but who's least bad.The best
    the 2 party system we have to offer
    is really pretty lousy.Both parties
    are utterly corrupt and useless.
    They cause more problems then they solve by fighting amongst themselves.
    It's time to get more parties/people
    involved and get out of this gridlock
    the Repuiblican/Democrat parties have
    this country in..

    December 4, 2007 11:36 am at 11:36 am |
  15. Greg, Phoenix, AZ

    Regardless of how much these worthless popularity contests ebb and flow over the next few months, come election time it is going to be Giuliani v. Clinton.

    Obama doesn't have what it takes (yet) to take Hillary down. She would have to take herself down. Team Hillary wants ANYONE but Giuliani in the general election.

    Huckabee is currently taking advantage of the Christian conservative element who are concerned about Giuliani's moderate social views. He is also very affable which is also helping at this time. However, at the end of the day, his PRO-AMNESTY stance on illegal immigration will make it impossible for him to win the Republican nomination. His tax record will further doom him. The fact that he doesn't believe in evolution will preclude him from getting ANY independent voters and this alone would be fatal. His lack of ANY kind of foreign policy experience would just be icing on the cake. THIS is Team Hillary's dream opponent but it won't happen.

    December 4, 2007 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  16. KD, cherry hill NJ

    Obama supporters are wasting their vote. Forget the South. Do you think white people in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Florida are going to vote for him.

    yes hatmatters…I think white people in the aforementioned states will vote for Obama because some people are not as narrowminded as you. Perhaps, you should pay a little more attention to the issues than the color.

    Posted By megan : December 4, 2007 10:53 am

    Actually Senator Barack Hussein Obama will loose not because he is black. I think he will make a great President he is smart articulate and a passionate orator. But he will loose beacuse his name is Barack HUSSEIN Obama. forget the south they will not vote for him any way, but he will loose Middle America beacuse he is a HUSSEIN! do you really not think republican smear machine will swiftboat him with this and they will have a cake walk.

    December 4, 2007 11:41 am at 11:41 am |
  17. Chris, Middletown, CT

    I'm impressed....the Democrats have started to read HRC responses..and her many positions (on the same subject) – and realize....we don't need more gridlock....(and the introduction of socialism) – we need a leader...and its not her....

    December 4, 2007 11:44 am at 11:44 am |
  18. tommy

    Hillary Will Be the "ComeBack Kid".

    December 4, 2007 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  19. Shawn, Denver CO

    It seems to me that, at some point, the political establishment became enchanted with the same theory as the movie industry: the earlier you begin marketing, the better; and there is NO amount of time where that trend breaks down. So just as production studios today begin releasing teasers/trailers much earlier (when do you recall seeing trailers for a movie 1 1/2 years in advance of release in the '80s?) presidential candidates now want to hit the road a year in advance to gain brand recognition.

    I'm hoping that the front runners lose and lose big before conventions, and I hope that happens every campaign season until these people are forced to return to a respectible schedule. After all, candidates coming out of the gate this early ultimately helps no one... except for the media outlets, think tanks, marketing execs and consultants that make their money from campaign cycles. The rest of us are just paying out the nose.

    December 4, 2007 11:49 am at 11:49 am |
  20. Hillarylover in SA

    Monte Brown – HELLO WE LOVE YOU GUY down here in San Antonio. God Clinton staff should grab you up! You say it so well: It is time for Hillary to get at the other Democrats so that she can win the primaries. I am confident that the American people just won’t buy into petty attacks. The American people will choose Hillary Clinton because she’s is the most qualified candidate, the most experienced candidate and she’s READY TO LEAD ON DAY ONE.

    Posted By Monte Brown, New York, NY : December 4, 2007 10:39 am

    December 4, 2007 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  21. Christine

    I force myself to listen to listen to Sean Hannity's radio show (it's not easy). He hates the Democrats, but always defends Obama over Clinton. He does so because he knows if Mr. Obama were to win the nomination, the Republican attack machine would easily destroy Mr. Obama. "he is a Muslim". "went to a Muslim school"(ie "Islamofacist" supporter). "A vote for Obama, is a vote for for terrorism". I'm sorry, but that is exactly what will happen. It will make the 'swiftboating' of John Kerry, look like childsplay. It wasn't 'true', but it worked.
    In a time where we are involved in a war with a Muslim country, Mr. Obama is not the right candidate.

    December 4, 2007 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  22. Simon,Pa

    wow,CNN, pictures of Hillary win, Hillary as a president, Hillary as commander in chief. I wish the media elects the presidents. It could be an easier thing for us Americans.

    December 4, 2007 11:57 am at 11:57 am |
  23. Jim, Philadelphia PA

    How in the world can a "National Poll" include less than 1000 people? It doesn't seem like it would be very accurate.

    December 4, 2007 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  24. S. Carter, Los Angeles

    I have been reading these comments on the ticker for some months now and I have come to this conclusion:

    Comments coming from those in Florida seem to be the most absolute and non-logical arguments.

    I am making a blanket statement, and there are those who are from Florida and have managed to be coherent, but the majority of Floridans are very immature with their arguments.

    Sorry, it has just been buggin me for so long. They seem to have a blind faith for their canidate of choice and make absolute statements like "it will never happen" or tend to be hateful in their remarks.

    Obviously this is not an exclusively Florida thing, I just notice alot comes from them.

    Ok......I am ready for the hate

    December 4, 2007 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
  25. Jr., California

    John, Boston

    "The novelty has finally worn off. When it comes right down to it, nobody in reality will vote for Hillary. I have no problem with a woman as president, just not this one."

    I agree, could you imagine how interesting it would be if Condoleeza Rice ran against Shrillary?

    December 4, 2007 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
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