December 4th, 2007
11:17 AM ET
7 years ago

Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani down big

Giuliani's support has dropped 9 points in one month, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race in both parties isn't just tightening in the key early-voting states, but across the rest of country as well, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday evening.

One month before Iowa and New Hampshire voters kick off the presidential primary season, the poll seems to show nationwide support for frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani has dropped considerably from this time a month ago.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is down 9 percentage points in one month while Clinton, the senator from New York, has seen her support drop 11 points. Both Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began.

"The movement away from the frontrunners may be a sign that the public is starting to pay attention to the election, and may be moving beyond the "name recognition" phase," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It's an early indication of what might happen after Iowa and New Hampshire, when a few second-tier candidates will get instant name recognition to rival that of Clinton and Giuliani."

One-time dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee has shot up to second place in the national survey, now 9 percentage points behind Giuliani, 25 percent to 16 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are one point behind at 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is just behind the pack with 12 percent.

Responding to the poll, Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said, "We’ve been saying from the beginning that this race was always going to tighten. But when you look at the numbers, Rudy has been consistently leading in every major national poll since February. Unlike some other candidates, Mayor Giuliani has steady strength and real staying power."

On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead now stands at 15 percentage points over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 24 percent. In last month's poll Clinton's lead was 28 percent over the Illinois senator. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 15 percent, meanwhile, with the rest of the field in single digits.

While Clinton's support is down, Holland notes no single Democrat is the direct beneficiary.

"No single candidate has emerged as the ABC - Anybody-but-Clinton - candidate," he said. "Edwards went up 3, Obama went up 3, [New Mexico Gov. Bill] Richardson went up 2, [Delaware Sen. Joe] Biden went up 2. That's how Clinton maintains a double-digit lead - Democrats may be moving away from her, but they aren’t moving toward one of her rivals."

The poll surveyed 425 Republicans and leaning Republicans and 494 Democrats and leaning Democrats on November 30 through December 2. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related video: CNN's Candy Crowley reports it's a dead heat in Iowa with a month to go

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney


Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. E. C., Houston, Texas

    It's About Time.....Giuliani and Clinton are the two WORST possible candiates for their respective parties. What are they doing in this race when NEITHER has the Integrity, Character, or Experience to be the Commander in Chief of this Nation? Hopefully, their numbers will continue to drop until they hit rock bottom.

    December 4, 2007 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  2. Robert, Houston TX

    There are too many polls, too early in these elections. The lesser known candidates don't stand a chance when newsgroups constantly report that one or two candidates are a sure thing.

    Polls can influence the outcome of elections. We need to cut down on them and let the results be known when they are finalized, not after people have already been influenced for months ahead of time.

    Let the candidates conduct their own polls and keep them to themselves so they know where they stand. No one else needs to know that there is a 5 point difference or a 45 point difference between two candidates. The one trailing should still have a chance to speak to the voters and expect that they might take them seriously.

    December 4, 2007 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  3. EUNICE, MARYLAND, U.S.A.

    I am not surprise at all about the shift in the polls. This election is going to be between Hillary and Huckabee and Huckabee is going to win in the end.

    December 4, 2007 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  4. Mike, Milwaukee, WI

    "Everybody else on the ballot is doomed," Ford said, explaining what would happen if Obama were nominated. "Every Democratic candidate running on that ticket would lose because he's black and he's at the top of the ticket—we'd lose the House, the Senate, and the governors and everything."

    Stop Obama. Save the Democrat Party.
    ------------–

    I have to respond to this ignorant post and I hope CNN does not delete it. Being a black man, there was of course so skepticism on my part on nominating OBAMA due to some racism that exists in America, but think about this one important fact.....

    THOSE WHO WOULD NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA BECAUSE HE IS BLACK, PROBABLY WOULD NOT VOTE DEMOCRAT ANYWAY......

    so what does being black have to do with him winning? he is still very much ACCEPTED among the Dem base and highly popular among Independents.

    Indendents decide elections....they are the ones who gave Bill Clinton, and George Bush two terms each.....so I think comments like these are both ignorant and undermining.

    December 4, 2007 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  5. Chuck

    You all just don’t get it.
    The majority of registered voters are women and like Chris Matthews said, if Hillary gets half of the women to vote for her she will win. This is why the national polls show her in the lead. The Republicans, Obama and Edwards don’t stand a chance. So put all your opinions aside and vote for the woman.

    December 4, 2007 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  6. Jose Card

    "How in the world can a "National Poll" include less than 1000 people? It doesn't seem like it would be very accurate." Posted By Jim, Philadelphia PA

    Unfortunately, very few people would even question the validity of these polling results. Good for Jim!

    Every high school student should graduate with a course in Basic Statistics so they can go on to become knowledgeable voters. It should be made a national goal for competitiveness that our future generations of citizens will know how to read statistical analysis on elections, consumer products for shopping, and quality control of goods and services at work.

    Not only do we have to know the ratio of the actual sample size used over the sufficient sample size, but also the random sampling method used for any polling results. Otherwise, you can be lied to all the time.

    Poor education in math and statistics can weaken our democracy as well as our productivity.

    December 4, 2007 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  7. Russ, Pittsburgh, PA

    Why omit Ron Paul from the article? He is virtually tied with McCain and Thompson in the polls and he is raising more money than all of the Republican candidates.

    The CNN bias towards the supposed frontrunners is sickening.

    Posted By Tony, El Paso TX : December 4, 2007 10:34 am

    I don't know where you get your info, but the poll had him in with 4%. No where near the 15% of Thompson and McCain. These Ron Paul supports are so annoying, they are like that little kid in the backseat that keeps saying "Are we there yet, are we there yet". You just want to backhand them and tell them to shut up.

    December 4, 2007 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  8. PollM, Dallas Texas

    Who do you believe among the Democratic Presidential Candidates stands to gain the most from the National Intelligence Estimate Report?

    http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1188

    .

    December 4, 2007 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  9. Steve, NY

    OH....the race for President of the United States is more than just a popularity contest........good to hear!

    December 4, 2007 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  10. Dean, Ottawa, Canada

    Could people please stop wasting my time with comments about Ron Paul? The man does not exist outside of truthers, white supremacists and people who wear with tin foil hats. He isn't mentioned because any mention would be a waste of space.

    December 4, 2007 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  11. Terry, des moines, ia

    Why CNN did not post that Hillary Clinton was 26 points ahead of Obama two weeks ago, according to the AP-Pew national poll? Her poll will go up soon for sure.

    Obama's national poll is still going sideway for months, averaging low 20's, meaning people do not beleive in him more.

    December 4, 2007 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  12. Coach Haughton NH

    "Strength" and experience mean nothing unless you have the Honesty and integrity to do the right thing.

    I'm sorry do you take the President of Harvard Law review who took a 15k a year job as a community organizer? And then made ethics reform the cause of his 11 year career as a legislator. Whose Healthcare plan is focused on reducing costs instead of forcing people to buy insurance.

    Or the Candidate Whose dad was a congressman, husband was a governor, husband was president and then voted for the war in iraq in the senate?

    She has seven years experience in the senate voting the wrong way. Voting for Iraq without reading the intelligence is outright betrayal of the american people. Keep making excuses for her if you want. Her healthcare plan will punish people who cannot afford insurance.

    Hillary Clinton is by far the most Corrupt, Dishonest candidate for president and she's READY TO LEAD US IN THE WRONG DIRECTION ON DAY ONE.

    December 4, 2007 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  13. Amy, Seattle, WA

    Considering the candidates who have chances to be nominated, I would go with Clinton or Edwards who have liberal but more centric positions. I prefer Clinton who is more pragmatic and would bring a new view in the White House. Believe it or not, just for being a woman, she will bring change.

    I would never vote for Obama who promotes a left-wing politics. If Obama run in the general election against let's say Huckabee or McCain, I would consider a Republican with no hesitation. I totally oppose Obama's populist approach of politics, I see this as a danger to the American values.

    I would never

    December 4, 2007 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  14. Clayton St.louis, Missouri

    Once again they leave out Ron Paul...

    December 4, 2007 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  15. Adam, Sacramento

    This election is incredibly hard to peg but the Iowa caucus should give us a decent read.

    With so many bodies in both races, none of whom from everyone I talk to completely satisfies their parties base how the lower percentage candidates second choices break will be key.

    On caucus night do we see them gelling around edwards obama clinton or even if you do the math Richardson Biden or Dodd on the Dem side.

    Who does all gore endorse with his 19% want to vote for him block.

    Who does Ted Kennedy endorse for the NH bump.

    How do those endorsements if they come change the race.

    Right now don't rule anyone out most are in this race. No one has demonstarted they aren't fit for office.

    Clinton could be ruled to polarizing, Obama to Black, Edwards to inexperienced etc... The people are starting to pay attention now the real race starts. Grab some popcorn pick your horse and enjoy.

    December 4, 2007 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  16. concerned

    To dean from Canada,

    How far do you have your head up your ass? ron paul supporters are all rascists and cooks acccording to you? what a moron.

    December 4, 2007 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  17. Anonymous

    Why are you not giving Ron Paul the credit that he is due? For the first time in my life I actually donated to a campaign, and it was his. Please report on ALL candidates, not just the annoying ones.

    December 4, 2007 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  18. Rodney Dallas TX

    John Karsten, Virginia Beach, VA

    Seriously John, Virginia Beach VA is NOT the south.

    December 4, 2007 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  19. Alex, S.F., California

    It is AMAZING how CNN.com has become such a supermarket tabloid now, with their lurid, misleading headlines. The original USA Today headline for this USA Today/Gallup poll is: "Poll: Giuliani, Clinton support slips a month from first votes." And here, CNN rewrites the headline sensationally as "Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani Down Big." Come on, CNN, wake up! How can a survey of 425 Republicans and 494 Democrats represent the whole nation? There are millions and millions of voters in this whole process, and the Presidential campaigns have not even started yet! CNN has gone from bad to worse since Ted Turner sold out. Polls are fake, fake, fake, and not worthy of anyone's attention. The fact is, no one knows who is going to be the nominees of either party yet.

    December 4, 2007 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  20. KEITH JAMES LOUTTIT

    DEAR Dean, Ottawa, Canada:

    Please stop wasting OUR time with YOUR comments!

    You're not even an AMERICAN, so please Sir, Shut UP!

    Okay, Dr. Paul is fine man, and I'm sure a fine Gynecologist. BUT, he is AN AMERICAN! Even "truthers, white supremacists and people who wear with tin foil hats", are AMERICANS. You Sir are NOT.

    THAT is the American way: Equal Voices for Equal Votes. This is the basis of our First Amendment Right, and it is guaranteed by our Second Amendment Right! You, Sir, are not guaranteed anything under OUR Fourteenth Amendment Right!

    This is an AMERICAN process, and it should not be fouled and befuddled with the viewpoints of FOREIGNERS, no matter how well-meaning they are.

    If we let you speak up, then we have to listen to every other non-American out there. Even American Ex-Patriots, who, in my opinion are not entitled to being American after they abandon any ship, sinking or not.

    Not letting any alien, legal or not, have their say in OUR future is OUR Right. If we did it the other way, then we would be without our own Sovereignty. Would you like it if we decided who you put on your hockey teams?

    December 4, 2007 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  21. GaryH, columbia, sc

    It is pathetic to see obama supporters saying hillary bashing obama. The fact is obama was the first one to throw the first punch a couple of months ago, and hillary was quiet for a long time while reeciving the punches. It is time that hillary should punch back.

    It is also ridiculous to hear people saying hillary's punch back may backfire, while these people was quiet when obama threw repeated punches.

    What a punch of hyprocrits, without backbones!

    December 4, 2007 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  22. David, Bay Area, CA

    I can see it now. Guiliani wins the Repub nomination, Clinton wins the Dem, the Christian Right throws their weight behind Huckabee as a third party, Ron Paul enters as an independent, and then just to make things interesting Michael Bloomberg makes a run with Obama or Jeb on the ticket as VP.

    You heard it here first.

    December 4, 2007 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  23. Paul, New Orleans, LA

    To: Dean, Ottawa, Canada

    Worry about your own country. Have you even looked at what he stood for? What specific points do you not like about him? Provide some substance please.

    December 4, 2007 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  24. kathe oakland, california

    Hil, Hil, Hil. If all you can find to critize Obama about is his childhood dream of being President????? Poor You. Are you suggesting children, even black children don't dream of becoming President, Senators, CEOs. Wow what a President you will make Hil. You need to talk with Bill about your comments beforehand. You could learn a lot. This is exactly why I would not nor do I trust you....it is difficult to know who you are and what you really think.

    December 4, 2007 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  25. Micki Santa Clarita CA

    I'm in the "ABC" camp - anybody but Clinton. Most of my friends are Democrat and they won't vote for her. The kindest word I've heard them use in reference to Hillary is "shrew". I haven't made up my mind yet but am fed up with the Republicans and haven't seen much to be impressed with from the Democrats. Crossing my fingers and hoping that this election will be different and give me a candidate I can vote FOR and not just someone I'm voting AGAINST.

    December 4, 2007 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
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