December 4th, 2007
11:17 AM ET
11 years ago

Poll shows Clinton, Giuliani down big

Giuliani's support has dropped 9 points in one month, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The presidential race in both parties isn't just tightening in the key early-voting states, but across the rest of country as well, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll out Monday evening.

One month before Iowa and New Hampshire voters kick off the presidential primary season, the poll seems to show nationwide support for frontrunners Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani has dropped considerably from this time a month ago.

Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is down 9 percentage points in one month while Clinton, the senator from New York, has seen her support drop 11 points. Both Clinton and Giuliani's declines are the biggest one-month drop they have seen since the presidential election season began.

"The movement away from the frontrunners may be a sign that the public is starting to pay attention to the election, and may be moving beyond the "name recognition" phase," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "It's an early indication of what might happen after Iowa and New Hampshire, when a few second-tier candidates will get instant name recognition to rival that of Clinton and Giuliani."

One-time dark horse candidate Mike Huckabee has shot up to second place in the national survey, now 9 percentage points behind Giuliani, 25 percent to 16 percent. Arizona Sen. John McCain and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson are one point behind at 15 percent. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is just behind the pack with 12 percent.

Responding to the poll, Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella said, "We’ve been saying from the beginning that this race was always going to tighten. But when you look at the numbers, Rudy has been consistently leading in every major national poll since February. Unlike some other candidates, Mayor Giuliani has steady strength and real staying power."

On the Democratic side, Clinton's lead now stands at 15 percentage points over Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 39 percent to 24 percent. In last month's poll Clinton's lead was 28 percent over the Illinois senator. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards stands at 15 percent, meanwhile, with the rest of the field in single digits.

While Clinton's support is down, Holland notes no single Democrat is the direct beneficiary.

"No single candidate has emerged as the ABC - Anybody-but-Clinton - candidate," he said. "Edwards went up 3, Obama went up 3, [New Mexico Gov. Bill] Richardson went up 2, [Delaware Sen. Joe] Biden went up 2. That's how Clinton maintains a double-digit lead - Democrats may be moving away from her, but they aren’t moving toward one of her rivals."

The poll surveyed 425 Republicans and leaning Republicans and 494 Democrats and leaning Democrats on November 30 through December 2. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related video: CNN's Candy Crowley reports it's a dead heat in Iowa with a month to go

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

Filed under: Iowa • New Hampshire • Presidential Candidates • South Carolina
soundoff (196 Responses)
  1. anon, ny, ny

    It dawns on me that CNN must be a republican news network.

    Why there are more negative news about Hillary than Obama? For example, why CNN shows the negative, but unfounded, comments of an obama supporter, Reicht, about Hillary? Why CNN does not report negative comments from a hillary supporter?

    There have been biased comments from CNN anchors. For example, Glenn Beck (who has a 1-hr show at 7pm) said he was a republican, and he talked about american people do not like Hillary.

    It appears that CNN wants Obama to win the nomination, so that the republican nominee can win more easily.

    CNN looks like the Fox news network these days!

    December 4, 2007 01:59 pm at 1:59 pm |
  2. Brad, Oak Creek, WI

    Who's Ron Paul?

    December 4, 2007 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  3. Doug, New Jersey

    "you obviously know NOTHING about liberals or Democrats. I don't know anyone who is in favor of the fanatics ranting and raving in the streets of the middle east."

    Obviously I know all there is no know about libs since I knew that a lib like you could not respond to my comments without rewriting them.

    So since you could not respond to what I typed and had to change it to what you could respond to, that shows you know I'm right and you are just another lib who sees Church going Americans as the same or even worse people as those calling for that teachers death.

    December 4, 2007 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  4. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    I can't believe that people are worried about different candidates now ever before Iowa and New Hampshire have held their respective races. I wish all the state would get together and move back the dates for these primaries and caucuses to April or May. All this front loading is getting stupid because you need to do all this fund raising instead of writing policies and doing the work they were elected to do. With the exception of Mike Gravel, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mit Romney, everybody is still in office and should be doing that job.

    December 4, 2007 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  5. gilliganscorner

    Could people please stop wasting my time with comments about Ron Paul? The man does not exist outside of truthers, white supremacists and people who wear with tin foil hats. He isn't mentioned because any mention would be a waste of space.
    Posted By Dean, Ottawa, Canada : December 4, 2007 1:25 pm

    The man does not exist outside of truthers, white supremacists and people who wear with tin foil hats.:
    Care to back that up with any facts, Dean? That's a pretty wide brush you swing. I am sure that all the other Ron Paul supporters were as smart as you.

    He isn't mentioned because any mention would be a waste of space.
    Your faith in the veracity of mainstream media is touching, Dean. I am sure that you place complete trust in the integrity and the ethics of media, learn what you are told, bury your critical thinking, and swallow whatever pablum they feed you.

    I understand. I was like you once. It's hard when you grow up and enter the working force that things aren't quite what they tell you in school. My first awakening is when I learned about the JFK assassination. It's hard to learn that the establishment isn't looking out for you like they said they would.

    I suggest you look around, Dean. If you are an intelligent person, don't be restrained by your own biases. The internet offers you a wonderful opportunity to learn things after you read the paper and watch the news. Re-discover yourself. Trigger your critical thinking skills again.

    Open your eyes, man.

    Ron Paul cured my apathy.

    December 4, 2007 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  6. Jonathan Drake, Columbus, Ohio

    "I don't know where you get your info, but the poll had him in with 4%. No where near the 15% of Thompson and McCain. These Ron Paul supports are so annoying, they are like that little kid in the backseat that keeps saying "Are we there yet, are we there yet". You just want to backhand them and tell them to shut up. Russ, Pittsburgh, PA."

    Well, Russ, if you look at the polling data itself, you will find that there is a long list of questions, stating things like, "do you support, not support, or have you never heard of...Hillary Clinton/Rudy Giuliani/Mitt Romney", etc. You will find, if you read through all of the questions, those polled were not asked if they supported, did not support, or had never heard of Ron Paul. He was omitted from the poll. At the very bottom, the general question is asked of who you would most support in the Republican/Democrat primary (or some question to that effect). Here's where you see your 4%. Nice.

    As for the claim of Ron Paul supporters being truthers, white supremacists, and people with tin foil's strange to me that for someone so "enlightened" as yourself, Dean from Ottawa, you obviously have not investigated Ron Paul's message for yourself. Here.

    December 4, 2007 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  7. Steve, Landing, NJ

    I have to ask, how can so many otherwise liberal people be seriously supporting Ron Paul? Here is a guy who:
    1: Believes the 2nd amendment should be extended to military-style machine guns.
    2: Believes in the "war on Christmas".
    3: Opposes network neutrality.
    4: Is staunchly pro-life.
    5: Opposes the existence of the Department of Education.
    6: Opposes individual democracy by opposing direct-election of senators and supporting the electoral college.
    7: Opposes the existence of the Department of Energy.

    The guy wants to put this nation back basically on the course it was on in the nineteenth century. I understand that he has the appeal of standing up for his principles, but his principles would damage the country.

    December 4, 2007 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  8. Anonymous

    "you obviously know NOTHING about liberals or Democrats. I don't know anyone who is in favor of the fanatics ranting and raving in the streets of the middle east."

    Obviously I know all there is no know about libs since I knew that a lib like you could not respond to my comments without rewriting them.

    So since you could not respond to what I typed and had to change it to what you could respond to, that shows you know I'm right and you are just another lib who sees Church going Americans as the same or even worse people as those calling for that teachers death.

    Posted By Doug, New Jersey : December 4, 2007 2:05 pm

    I'm a 'church going' person myself and I happen to believe that we are much better than the fanatics who called for the execution of that innocent teacher. It appear that you have a big problem with people who aren't on the same page with you politically speaking.

    BTW- I've never encountered anyone in my church who has as much anger and hatred for fellow American's as you do. You must be one of those church goers who believe as long as you show up on Sunday you can treat people anyway that you want to Monday – Saturday.
    Get some help Doug- I would suggest anger management or perhaps just opening the bible and reading it might be a start.

    December 4, 2007 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  9. Lance in Monrovia, CA

    Obama 08. He's the future. Thank god.

    December 4, 2007 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  10. anon, new york, ny

    On the other hand, USA Today/Gallup poll of June 3, 2007, six months ago, shows that Obama beat Hillary by 1 pts (30 vs 29). Now, Hillary beats Obama by 15 pts (39 vs 24). That means, for the past 6 months:



    Obama has wasted his $80 million raised!

    HURRAH HILLARY! You go girl.
    Hillary 08!

    December 4, 2007 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  11. Whitney, Nashville, TN

    For those of you who cite Harold Ford Jr. losing his senate race to Bob Corker as evidence that the South won't elect a Black president, I would have to disagree with you.

    I am from Tennessee and while I did vote for Harold Ford Jr., I only did so because I wanted the Democrats to take control of the Senate. The Ford family has been a dominant and corrupt force in Tennessee (specifically Memphis) politics for a long time. 3 members of the Ford family have held public office in Tennessee and been indicted on federal charges. Ford's uncle John is on trial right now for bribery charges. The fact of the matter is, Tennesseans outside of Memphis do not trust the Ford family and rightfully so.

    That having been said, I am 100% behind Barack Obama for president. In terms of Souther electability, he is the strongest Democratic candidate to appeal to Southern voters (arguably Edwards is stronger). People conveniently ignore that his strong Christian fate is the perfect way to counter weakening support by the Souther n Baptist set for the Republican party. Hilary Clinton is so unelectable in the South it's not even funny. The Democratic Party will be shooting itself in the foot if it nominates Hilary Clinton.

    Barack Obama is both the most electable Democratic candidate and the best candidate. OBAMA 08

    December 4, 2007 02:16 pm at 2:16 pm |
  12. Dan, USA

    "lets see if its possible for Iowans and the rest of the country to figure out that the male republican track record is what is killing this country.

    its kind of funny to notice that bill clinton is able to speak so well of Hillary and pump up her qual's…and NO ONE running for prez in the GOP wants bush [closest thing for them to their top leadership] anywhere near them.

    tells ya somethin.

    Posted By scott,manchester NH : December 4, 2007 11:12 am "
    Hey Scott I seem to remember Al Gore and other democrats running as far as they could from Clinton a few years back. I think that tells you something too!

    December 4, 2007 02:21 pm at 2:21 pm |
  13. P

    To hattmatters:
    I cannot speak to Ohio, PA or Florida but, having grown up in Iowa and spent half my life there, I can tell you that whites in Iowa will vote for a black man. They will vote for a brown man or a yellow man or a woman. Iowans tend to be fairly open-minded and fair. Plus, with their first-in-the-nation status, they take their politics very seriously. They examine the issues and the candidates and come to an educated decision.
    To Puck in Pittsboro:
    Amen, brother! Amen.
    To Mike in Milwaukee:
    You might be onto something here. Has anyone polled the independents in this country to see who they like? It could be very illuminating and instructional.

    December 4, 2007 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  14. Danny G. Boca Raton, FL

    are you listening to yourself? do you think ALL liberals are evil? really? for your knowledge I am a fairly conservative thinking, church going, family loving, red blooded American! and by the way I will vote for Sen. Clinton for president. you want to stop the non-sense of the political parties, you look for the person that is willing to compromise and see both angles to a dispute and tries to find the common good! I have not seen that from most of these candidates. Huckabee was governor of Arkansas, his constituency has both Clinto loyalists and republicans alike he had to compromise, Romney had to do the same even though here lately he is been selling his soul to the neo-cons, but he has that experience, Sen. Clinton has the same experience from the senate, she was not afraid to back the commander-in-chief when every evidence they produced pointed in the direction of WMD, she is also not afraid to point out correctly that we must do better, she has a clear vision of what the problems of America are and she plans to enlist the best people (I dare say from all political sides) to come up with the solutions. neither Libs or Reps can fix the US by themselves.

    EVERYONE VOTE! it is your duty as a citizen.

    December 4, 2007 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  15. Steve, Landing, NJ

    It's kinda funny how all the liberals here so a conservative bias, and all the conservatives see a liberal bias, and all the Obama-supporters see a Clinton-bias, and all the Clinton-supports see an Obama-bias... Apophenia, anyone?

    December 4, 2007 02:31 pm at 2:31 pm |
  16. Sandy, West Chester, Pa.

    Doug from NJ,
    Why would you assume that liberal Democrats aren't church going people? I'm a bleeding heart liberal and I could not be more proud of my country. I'm also very active in my church. I'm proud to be a Christian and a Democrat. It appears that you have deemed 'liberal Democrats' to be public enemy number 1 and I'm just wondering why you have such animosity towards your fellow American's?

    December 4, 2007 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  17. Anonymous


    December 4, 2007 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  18. Freda, Greenwich, CT

    I used to live in a neighborhood called Chasewood in Missouri City, Texas. When Ron Paul was campaigning for the House of Representatives over thirty years ago, he stopped and talked with me about his views on many things. We talked for a very long time and he sent notes and newsletters to my home after he was elected. I felt he cared about me as a person who lived in his district. He was interested in my opinion on many issues. I would vote for Ron Paul for president of the USA.
    I am an Independent but I was a Democrat at that time. I am also of African American and Native American heritage.

    December 4, 2007 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |
  19. Doug, New Jersey

    The far left extremists control the democratic party and all I have done is factually post what they are saying (check out DU and daily kos ETC). It is insane to take issue with the messenger and ignore the message. If you want to vote Democrat, fine, go for it. I just want you to know what you are supporting. The extremists who control the Democratic party say that church going Americans are the same as those out in the streets in the Middle East calling for this teacher to be put to death. It's simple, if you agree with that kind of hate, ignorance and dishonesty that is the far left, then vote Democrat, if not vote against them.

    Just remember what you are voting for, that's all. Remember when you vote for Hillary you are voting for the far left, the people who have equated church going Americans to these extremists who want this teacher killed. The woman who has said, "We are going to take things from you for the common good" (Hillary's exact words). You want to vote for Marxism and hate, go for it.

    December 4, 2007 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  20. Steve, Landing, NJ


    I believe Ron Paul's a stand-up guy, I'm just not sure what the average person thinks he's going to accomplish for the country. All I hear about him is that he's a genuine guy, not a politicians, stands by his beliefs, etc. etc. Not why anyone thinks his beliefs are the correct ones.

    December 4, 2007 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  21. Anonymous

    Dan, USA–

    And look what happened to Gore, he gave up an election that he should've cake-walked. Fact is, the majority of Americans never stopped liking Bill Clinton.

    'Course, that's no reason to vote for his wife.

    December 4, 2007 03:26 pm at 3:26 pm |
  22. Steve, Landing, NJ

    Jonathan Drake–

    Yes, Paul was left out of that poll question. So were Tancredo, Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich, and Hunter. Notice how only people who had double-digits in the last question had a question devoted entirely to them?

    Huckabee was ignored the same way until very recently. They just don't bother asking questions about people who aren't in a position to win. Until Ron Paul breaks into the mainstream–which, despite his ardent support here, he has failed to do–the mainstream media probably won't pay too much attention to him. It's not bias against his views, just his popularity.

    December 4, 2007 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  23. Je Sui, PA

    I wish Americans were as courageous as the French people who demonstrate each time they feel cheated by politicians. We are just a bunch of lazy passive americans who sit around the television screen and get fat while the politicians play with our emotions.

    December 4, 2007 03:49 pm at 3:49 pm |
  24. Brad, Stockton, CA

    Keep checking the pollsm with any luck she will end at zero.

    December 4, 2007 03:56 pm at 3:56 pm |
  25. sarah el paso TX

    If Obama loses the nomination he should run as an independent

    December 4, 2007 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
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