December 14th, 2007
01:32 PM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Clinton's lead vanishes in New Hampshire

Obama has a 1 point lead over Clint in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost her once-comfortable lead over rival Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of New Hampshire, according to a poll released Friday.

In the new poll conducted by the Concord Monitor, Obama surpasses the New York senator by 1 percentage point: 32 percent to 31 percent. Meanwhile, John Edwards comes in a distant third with 15 percent support among likely Democratic voters, while Bill Richardson is fourth with 7 percent.

Speaking to reporters in Iowa Friday, Clinton commented on several recent polls both in Iowa and New Hampshire that show she is tied with Obama.

"I guess I've been in enough campaigns over a lot of years to know that there is no predictability and there certainly is no inevitability," she said. "You have to get out and work for every single vote. That's what I have always done. I don't know any other way to do it."

Meanwhile, at a separate event in Iowa, Obama commented on his rise in the polls, saying, "people are receptive to this message of change."

"I am confident in my ability to lead this country," he said. "And increasingly we are doing well. Not just here in Iowa but across the country."

Obama's chances of success in the Granite State will likely hinge on how many independents show up at the polls. Unlike many states, New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to vote in either the Republican primary or the Democratic primary - an allowance that often can give a boost to candidates who are viewed as outside their party establishment.

Of independent voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, the poll shows Obama has a wide lead over Clinton, 40 percent to 23 percent. Meanwhile Clinton holds the lead over Obama when it comes to registered Democrats in the state, 36 percent to 27 percent.

The poll also shows Obama is making inroads with women in the Granite State. The Illinois senator now edges out Clinton in that demographic, 34 percent to 32 percent.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (126 Responses)
  1. Fair,Washington DC

    I guess the polls do matter to you Obama supporters now...when Hillary was ahead the polss didn't mean anything...anyway we'll see how this plays out. I still think Hillary will win the nomination at the end of the day.

    December 14, 2007 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  2. Scott, Royal Oak, MI

    upon actually seeing video from yesterday's debate...
    nothing was uglier than Hillary's inappropriate cackling after the question was posed to Obama about Bill Clinton staff members in his campaign. and nothing was more beautiful than Obama cooly knocking her off of her high horse with his quip.

    December 14, 2007 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  3. Surrealist, Fort Myers, FL

    Hillary is sinking!! Obama appears to be in line for her throne. Why isn't John Edwards number 2?

    This man (Mr. Obama)–poll conscious and driven by focus group popularity points–his message is all over the place! Just read his senate records and his stump speeches! He is so politically correct he makes me itch!!

    He (Mr. Obama) is not the man to represent ME in Washington!

    He inspires no confidence in me! He does not possess the ability or the will to successfully negotiate or block the massive efforts from the GOP, special interests, major corporations, and the military defense industries–which will ensue as he attempts to change the paradigm in Washington. We all know, any efforts to change executive orders or laws...tilted to benefit those entities (wealthy executives, board members, and corporations, investment consortiums)–will be met with massive attacks, road blocks, and retaliation.

    Edwards is the only one who has the passion, drive and will to make meaningful change–if it is even possible. He's got no baggage. His honesty, integrity, and moral character are above reproach. He has been on message as a proponent and catalyst for change–unwaiveringly since 2000. His determination to battle for justice and equality in the marketplace for the wages and healthcare rights of all Americans–is inspiring to all working class Americans, including middle management professionals who see their industries vanishing over seas as their wealth potential and benefits decline. His mission and desire–is a message that truly crosses party-lines...because our future and our families are at stake.

    Obama is great man–but he is not great enough for this task. There are no GOP candidates who possess his passion, nor his eloquence on the issues. We need someone with a different paradigm–to really change the paradigm in Washington...and allow average American voices to be heard–and listened to.

    Please take another look at John Edwards. This may be our last hope to undo the decades of negligence, cronyism, and lassitude in Washington.

    December 14, 2007 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  4. Liberal Chic

    Go, Hillary! You can do it! Just eke out Iowa and it's all downhill from there.

    We can't have a rookie with no experience and fluff ideas running this country. You have to come through!

    December 14, 2007 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  5. Gloria, NY, NYC

    HRC = Hopless Repulsive Coward

    HRC is either a liar or a clueless dirty woman. Either way, I would be hard press to see how someone who cannot even manage her campaign pretend to be able to govern a country.

    I am a woman and guess what? I am not voting for this disgraceful woman...Mrs. Clinton! The woman has no pride and self esteem!

    GO Biden, Edwards, Obama, Richardson, and Dodd!!!

    December 14, 2007 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  6. skyz miami beach fl

    obama keeps using the word 'change' as if it were a magic spell – change is inevitable but it is as easily for worse than better – and we can't afford worse – hope means nothing when it comes down to cold hard reality – hope is emotional not practical –

    December 14, 2007 01:57 pm at 1:57 pm |
  7. bbln

    Can you imagine if the MSM and all its headlines only decided to focus on Clinton's national leads which according to an ABC/Washington Post poll is now 53 to Obama's 23? The MSM is selective for what's dramatic and what becomes a horserace, so let's let the media pick our President (they certainly helped against Gore)...if only the MSM were all like McNeil Lehrer, the country would be a better place.

    December 14, 2007 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  8. Angel, Los Angeles of Anaheim

    Monte Brown,

    Are you the same Monte Brown that spent several years as a professional wrestler after playing in the NFL. If so, I think that says loads about your credibility.

    December 14, 2007 02:03 pm at 2:03 pm |
  9. Matt, California

    Hillary for President all the Way, don't worry, one poll with a margin of error of a million isn't going to stop Hillary. She will win this nominatin, and I can't wait to see Obama give his speech in support of Hillary at the national convention. Priceless.

    December 14, 2007 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |


    December 14, 2007 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  11. Truth

    The Titanic: The Obama Campaign Tries to Preemptively Self-Destruct (in the General Election)

    December 14, 2007 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  12. Pat Huntington NY

    But Obama will not win the general election because the swing states like Ohio and Florida

    December 14, 2007 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  13. donna tamaqua pa

    I was undecied between hilary and obama. until obama got opra on his side.i like opra but she needs to stay out of politics. she to big of a role model. now when i think of obamas campain i see opra carrieing him in her pocket to the white house. not like hilary walking all the way by herself and standing on her own feet. obama needs to stand up for hisself and not behind opra. i am now voting for hilary. i feel she will stand on her own in the white house and not behind someone elses fame. go hilary

    December 14, 2007 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  14. Micahel Guinn, Ventura, CA

    I am so glad that this Primary Season will soon be over and the inside smears will stop (hopefully). Barack Obama can help unify us but we have to be willing.
    I really believe that OBAMA is the one for this moment in history!

    December 14, 2007 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  15. Ito

    Now, if we can just get Clinton to vanish.

    By the way, I'm a Republican who supports Obama.


    Because I'm hoping he will stear this country away from politics as usual.

    I'm hoping, that is. What a shame it will be if his administration turns out to be smoke and mirros. That would be akin to treason.

    I support you, Obama...but I do so with hope and optimism, tempered by a great deal of caution.

    December 14, 2007 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  16. Ben, Medford, MA

    "Please notice how this article highlights the one percentage point lead of Obama over Clinton in a poll with an error of 4 percentage points.
    that means, that in fact, Clinton may be three points ahead.

    Conclusions shouldn't be drawn from such inconclusive polls."

    Actually, what it means is that they are in a statistical dead heat in a state that Hillary was winning by over 20 percentage points just over a month ago. Nice try on that spin though.

    December 14, 2007 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  17. Evelyn, Eldorado, OH

    Isn't this the third person that's had to resign from Clinton's campaign in the last 2 weeks because they said or sent email that was negative and incorrect? That, in my opinion, says something about the character of the campaign. It seems some sensitivity, and integrety training is needed. Obama is really a breath of fresh air and I personally hope he wins and I will vote for him and not Clinton. If she is nominated I'll vote Republican this year.

    December 14, 2007 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  18. Kevin, SF, CA

    My prediction: Hillary vs Obama is going to become boring and CNN/MSNBC/FoxNews viewership is going to fall a bit. This is when you'll see names like Biden, Dodd, and Richardson begin to get covered more in an attempt to shake things up a bit.

    Another prediction: Edwards will fall off the map because us-vs-big-corps message is wearing thin and people see little substance there.

    December 14, 2007 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  19. AJ, IL


    Obama in '08!

    December 14, 2007 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  20. Tara, Chicago, IL

    Of course Obama should be showing some lead in the polls...he is out there making random comments when his senate office sits empty! It's embarrassing when he has missed approximately 36% of his Senate voting opportunities. I don't even know what he has done as an Illinois can anyone say what he will do as President?

    December 14, 2007 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  21. John, Brunswick, MD

    Good catch by Scott. Where does Ms. Clinton get off saying she has so much "experience"? "That's what I have always done...." What the hell is she talking about? Since when, before she carpet bagged a NY senate slot, did SHE run for office? Where is her "experience" other than to cover Bill's ass when he screwed up. Hillary ought to note the similarities between her husband (the man from Hope – the first black president) and the authentic thing (the audacity of hope – the REAL first black president). Bill's life story was inspiring, Obama's is even more so.

    December 14, 2007 03:46 pm at 3:46 pm |
  22. Michel Huyghues-Despointes, Gretna, LA.

    I will vote for Obama in 2016 after Hillary win in 2008, and I want Mrs Clinton to name Obama as her Vice president. Like that we can have 16 years of thrue Democratie; not like the last 8 years, a anti democratic party who do not respect the law.

    December 14, 2007 03:53 pm at 3:53 pm |
  23. Jim McDaniel, Escondido, CA

    Yes, the new poll is statistically a tie, but the significance is the movement – a major shift in Obama's direction. This IS really significant and likely means as people start paying attention they are liking Obama better. Momentum wins elections.

    December 14, 2007 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  24. MK, Los Angeles, California

    On a related note, a new Iowa poll came out today (conducted between Dec. 10 to Dec. 13) by Research 2000 that shows Senator Obama now has a 9 point lead in Iowa:

    Obama 33 (+8 from last poll)
    Clinton 24 (-3 from last poll)
    Edwards 24 (+3 from last poll)

    December 14, 2007 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  25. ted orlando

    Iowa Please get rid of Hillary by voting for Obama by a landslide....

    Bye bye hillary not even cnn can help you any more thank god for msnbc

    December 14, 2007 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
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