December 14th, 2007
01:32 PM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Clinton's lead vanishes in New Hampshire

Obama has a 1 point lead over Clint in New Hampshire, according to a new poll.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Democrat Hillary Clinton has lost her once-comfortable lead over rival Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of New Hampshire, according to a poll released Friday.

In the new poll conducted by the Concord Monitor, Obama surpasses the New York senator by 1 percentage point: 32 percent to 31 percent. Meanwhile, John Edwards comes in a distant third with 15 percent support among likely Democratic voters, while Bill Richardson is fourth with 7 percent.

Speaking to reporters in Iowa Friday, Clinton commented on several recent polls both in Iowa and New Hampshire that show she is tied with Obama.

"I guess I've been in enough campaigns over a lot of years to know that there is no predictability and there certainly is no inevitability," she said. "You have to get out and work for every single vote. That's what I have always done. I don't know any other way to do it."

Meanwhile, at a separate event in Iowa, Obama commented on his rise in the polls, saying, "people are receptive to this message of change."

"I am confident in my ability to lead this country," he said. "And increasingly we are doing well. Not just here in Iowa but across the country."

Obama's chances of success in the Granite State will likely hinge on how many independents show up at the polls. Unlike many states, New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to vote in either the Republican primary or the Democratic primary - an allowance that often can give a boost to candidates who are viewed as outside their party establishment.

Of independent voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic primary, the poll shows Obama has a wide lead over Clinton, 40 percent to 23 percent. Meanwhile Clinton holds the lead over Obama when it comes to registered Democrats in the state, 36 percent to 27 percent.

The poll also shows Obama is making inroads with women in the Granite State. The Illinois senator now edges out Clinton in that demographic, 34 percent to 32 percent.

The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

- CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (126 Responses)
  1. LillianDesMoinesIA

    Why is it that when Hillary was slightly ahead, you called it a "dead heat", but now Barack is slightly ahead, you say he's "leading in the polls." Sexism?? Preferential treatment?? Either way, please be equitable.

    December 14, 2007 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  2. Raman, Plano TX

    :Ben, Medford, MA :

    The polls being touted on are definitely skewed. That is the polls are being conducted in such a away that it is more favorable to Sen. Clinton's opponents.

    Unless John Edwards can pull it off, it is a very safe bet that Sen. Clinton is going to carry NH primary.

    Iowa is a toss up and may favor John Edwards. The newsweek poll giving Obama the lead is two cents worth.

    Not that Obama does not stand a good chance, but you have to keep in mind how sometimes pollsters can create a poll result just to give the poll winner a blue face at the actual polls (Remember the Dean Debacle during 2004 primaries).

    December 14, 2007 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  3. Earl, Ohio

    Na na na ... na na ...
    Na na na ... na na ...
    Hey hey ...
    Goodbye Hillary!

    December 14, 2007 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  4. Rick, Ruler, Iowa

    Its a poll a minute. FOX NEWS just released a poll that has Clinton ahead in New Hampshire by nine points. This poll was taken from Dec 11–13. The FOX pollster theorized that once you move the conversation from Oprah to cocaine use–Clinton jumps ahead. I'm not a Clinton fan but that was a brillant move. She's tough.

    December 14, 2007 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  5. Kim, Dallas, TX

    Gee Monte in New York, why don't you just tell us what your crystal ball says and we can stop the whole campaign nonsense now???? My 8-ball is telling me that Obama will win in Iowa? Did I get it right? LOL

    "Obama will not win New Hampshire. Hillary will win New Hampshire."

    December 14, 2007 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  6. Maggie SC

    depends on which NH poll your looking at? and which day, but which news media..
    This guy thinks Oprah make the rules of the country...SHE DOESNT! SHE SELLS SOAP, BOOKS AND BULL to white women, then turns her back on them. What a poor example!

    December 14, 2007 05:32 pm at 5:32 pm |
  7. Bobby Marquette MI

    I'm 'still" Voting FOR HER !!!!!

    Clinton will walk the walk and fight the fight needed to succeed for all americans
    I am Over the "O" ring Oprah & Obama
    I with Hillary all tyhe way to the WHITEHOUSE

    December 14, 2007 06:44 pm at 6:44 pm |
  8. Kim, Dallas, TX

    Salita in SC, you are not reading the polls...every poll that comes out says that Obama and/or Edwards are more electable if they run against a Republican than Clinton is. There are many anti Clinton Republicans. If Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, many fear that another Republican will be elected into the white house. Try not to go by personal bias and pay attention to what's going on around you. Obama stands the biggest chance against the Republican candidates.

    December 14, 2007 07:10 pm at 7:10 pm |
  9. stan pitts pa

    American are gonna vote based on sound ideas, research and gut, obama stands out please folks check him out and vote wisely obama will deliver real change, one we can all believe in!

    December 14, 2007 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  10. Kate, gb

    Feel the momentum! GO OBAMA!!!

    December 14, 2007 08:20 pm at 8:20 pm |
  11. Chad, Dallas TX

    Why is it that on the exact same day, another poll shows Hillary with a 9 point lead. Let's face it, CNN likes a close election because it sells. Perhaps if there was more in depth coverage of positions, people might realize that Obama really offers little beyond a good speech and celebrity endorsements.

    December 14, 2007 09:03 pm at 9:03 pm |
  12. Kyu Reisch, Radcliff, Kentucky

    Mooney, do you remember that Obama said polls is just number, he didn't care about polls, how come he is excited with the polls now? We see the real votes by Americans.

    December 15, 2007 01:29 am at 1:29 am |
  13. Jose Card

    We need not only change, but also change for the better.

    Who can deliver change for the better?

    December 15, 2007 02:00 am at 2:00 am |
  14. MARGIE


    December 15, 2007 02:23 am at 2:23 am |
  15. beep beep - middle class america

    Two excerpts from earlier posts: ...He is the candidate who represents some kind of change from the failing establishent...

    ...I mean, all these people who worked for President Clinton are now putting their support behind Obama, and not Hillary. What does that say?

    Well, it could say that even though Senator Obama "Holds out the promise of change" now – he would still ultimately turn around and PACK his Personal Staff, Cabinet Posts, and all his other appointments with President Clinton's FORMER STAFF = THE SAME OLD GUARD which he is currently rallying against!!! Well... so much for the sweeping winds of change from the "failing establishment"

    And his apparent eagerness to bring on board TeamObama THE SAME OLD TIRED AND STALE ESTABLISHMENT from the 90s Clinton Administraton may very well come back to haunt him = Perhaps by bringing alot sharper focus on his level of experience and his goals, creating some degree of caution and doubt as to his ability to be an effective President and to "hit the ground running" (especially if he has to figure out how to drive first with his Learner's Permit ;=)

    On the other hand if they are merely cheerleaders in Senator Obama's camp, then maybe the question was misunderstood? YET it still could end up looking like maybe they were offered the promise of a position on Obama's Staff for an endorsement? (Of course the same could be said of Hillary, but SHE IS ALREADY a part of the establishment and has personally known these people for years. I doubt it looks so odd... And in fact, may start looking better all the time??)______________

    ... Hillary wins the nomination if it is held today. She averages 19 points ahead of Obama nationally. Obama has yet to make a dent in many later states with larger electoral votes... (another excerpt from an earlier post)

    AND this is precisely why even if Hillary were to lose IA, NH, SC the race is far from over yet!!! THERE ARE STILL 47 OTHER STATES TO GO until the Democratic National Conventon Aug 25. And it can't be simply assumed that all 47 are going to fall in line behind the first 3. The OTHER factor is that as candidates start dropping out, who are they going to throw their support to?? Remember ALL of those OTHERS (except maybe Edwards) are part of the Establishment too. Then there would still be the question of running mates? Obama would definitely have to go with the OLD GUARD (not necessarily one of the other candidates and Edwards has already failed to win with Kerry). So perhaps Senator Obama's candidacy is starting to look more and more like the same old thing – filled with the Clinton era staff!!

    It may prove to be a very long drawn out battle indeed = The messages might start to lose sparkle and fizz if too many fatal flaws start showing. (AND after so much controvery would Obama ask for Oprah's help again? I highly doubt it.)

    I'm excited to see how it finally all plays out :o)

    December 15, 2007 06:38 am at 6:38 am |
  16. Joesy Col SC

    FIRST! I’M AN EDUCATED BLACK VOTER AND WILL NEVER SUPPORT A OPRAHBAMA! CLINTON AS SEALED MY VOTE! IM ASHAMED FOR ALL WOMAN AND MOSTLY WOMAN OF COLOR FOR THE WAY OPRAH SINGLE HANDIDLY TUNRED THIS ELECTION AWAY FROM WHAT MATTERS AND INTO RACE FIGHT COMPLETELY DIVIDING THIS COUNTRY! EXACTLY WHAT WILL ELECT A REPUBLICAN, SO THANK OPRAH AMERICA! WHEN YOU CAN’T TAKE YOUR CHILD TO A DOCTOR, OR LOOSE YOUR HOME AND JOB. Those supporting oprahbama because of winphrey are the same ones who insisted OJ was innocent. My child’s future and health are more important that oprahs being power hungry or the color of a mans skin. Obamawinphrey would have done better without her support. Most people left the venues in IOWA/NH/SC before obamaboy even came onstage. What’s that tell you secondly, Oprahs mentor Mya Angelo and her so-called boyfriend (no not Gail king) Steadman both support Clinton.

    Hillary is one of the most outstanding women of the 21 century. Because of that and had a large lead in the polls, she is continually dragged through the mud, bashed, ridiculed and called numerous names; by ALL media outlets (men controlled)Osama's camp started circulating bogus memos and lies about her early in the campaign and now about her mother and daughter, of course obama said he didn’t know. Where’s the ridicule media? DISGUSTING! What a nasty sick group at oprhabama camp! That's what you're voting for when you support the likes of him. NO OTHER WOMAN IN POLITICS HAS EVER HAD TO WITHSTAND, SUCH PERSONAL ATTACKS TRYING TO HELP THE SAD DISFUCTIONAL STATE THIS GREAT COUNTRY. It makes me ASHAMED OF HOW WE DO THINGS IN THIS COUNTRY! Even today, she continues to with stand numerous personal attacks from men who are imitated like obama and Edwards. The media has not reported on her campaign or outstanding public service record and that she outshines all other on the stage. She continues to be attacked by any supporter that has a negative opinion about oprahbama. THIS IS A DISGRACE TO OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM, that the media types like oprah are selling the Dream yes, oprah has put a dollar amount on Dr. Kings dream. NO ONE APPEARS TO BE INTERESTED IN WHATS BEST FOR THE US AND THE FUTURE SAFETY AND HEALTH CARE OF OUR CHILDREN like Hillary Clinton does. Obama would rather try the race game when he was down in the polls; again EXACTLY like OJ Simpson’s losing trial, the race card ALWAYS gets thrown around because they don't want to be held accountable for their failures and or lack of experience. Oprah Winphrey and Obama are trying to sell America just like bush/Chaney. If obamawinphrey gets the nom WE KNOW VERY WELL, HE CANT WIN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION, THIS COUNTRY WILL FALTER UNDER A NEW 2008 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENCY... OBAMA IS HUGH MISTAKE FOR THIS COUNTRY, HE CANNOT BRING THIS COUNTRY TOGETHER, AND HE AND OPRAH HAVE DIVIDED US MORE THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE. AND NOW, EVEN MOVE DIVIDED AS A COUNTRY AFTER LAST WEEKENDS DOG AND PONY SHOW Yes Oprah has power, look what she did with it! She put women, black or white back 50 years! She makes it difficult for any other educated BLACK WOMAN TO SUCCEED NOW! I would never watch, read or use a product Oprah endorses. DO NOT VOTE FOR OBAMAWINPHREY, YOU’RE SELLING YOUR CHILDS FUTURE!

    December 15, 2007 08:43 am at 8:43 am |
  17. ED winterpark Fl

    The worlds current situation and the US economy will negate the chance at this time for an African American[not mature enough at this time] and certainly not ready for the first Woman president,to be elected. The time for a Biden, Richardson, Edwards. to fill both positions is upon us and it will probably happen for the best choices at this time and situation of the low esteem and respect that this Bush admin has brought upon the U.S. Time for the first two choices are close but NOT THIS TIME. To much at stake for inexperience and learning curve.

    December 15, 2007 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  18. Kirsten, Keene, New Hampshire

    It is time that Bill Richardson gets the attention he deserves. This guy is incredible. He is so experienced, calm, intelligent. 'The real Bartlet'. I have seen him yesterday and my doubt about whether to vote for Hillary or Barack is gone now. Richardson is the man. He might surprise you all in the primary...

    December 15, 2007 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  19. Kubrick

    Obama has made the right move to shine a light on Hillary, and at the right time. Now is when people are listening and primary/caucus voters are deciding who to support in January. Iowa is up for grabs. And the rest will follow from there..
    11/4/2007 10:11:14 PM

    December 15, 2007 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  20. T. Fox , Ashland, Ma.

    Well educated people are voting for HILLARY. WALL STREET is for HILLARY 100%. ONLY HILLARY can turn this country around.

    December 16, 2007 01:56 am at 1:56 am |
  21. Marcy Green IOWA

    MASON CITY, Iowa - Sen. Hillary Clinton won endorsements Saturday evening from The Des Moines Register, the largest newspaper in the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state of Iowa.

    December 16, 2007 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  22. James, Lawrencevile GA

    Obama's lead in the polls is Oprah/media driven. America need to look at the real call for change. A Clinton White House is a real call for change. Obama, and this to shall pass.

    December 16, 2007 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  23. Kyu Reisch, Radcliff, Kentucky

    Mooney, you will be sorry, NH voters are smarter than double 'O', they will show us how to vote.

    December 16, 2007 10:49 pm at 10:49 pm |
  24. Ann ME


    December 17, 2007 07:20 am at 7:20 am |
  25. Rose Hann New London, CT

    This constant unfairness of Hillary is exhuasting. She as ALL the other cndidates numbers rise and fall, but when we can't tell the whole truth about ALL the candidates, then it's called "Let us change the perception" and not tell all the story. I count o the intellegence of the American people to see what the truth is and news, all news enjoys kicking the woman. Are we still in the 50s Come on, Hillary is srong. If I was attacked by republicans as much as she has been, I'm not certain I would have her courage to forge on, but she does. Polls are just that, POLLS! It's the vote which counts.
    Howard Dean didn't fall because he wasn't capable, he fell because the media made a laughing stock out of him because of his "sream". I wish people would be honest and deliver the truth.

    December 17, 2007 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
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