December 21st, 2007
11:56 AM ET
6 years ago

Obama, Clinton in dead heat, N.H. poll says

A new poll shows the New Hampshire primary race is extremely volatile.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Friday, setting up what’s likely to be an all-out sprint in the final 18 days before the Granite State’s primary.

Clinton and Obama each draw support from 32 percent of the state’s likely Democratic voters in the new USA Today/Gallup poll. John Edwards is a distant third with 18 percent, while Bill Richardson comes in fourth with 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the poll shows a tightening race on the Republican side as well, with Mitt Romney's once double-digit lead narrowing to 7 points over a resurgent John McCain, 34 percent to 27 percent.

Rudy Giuliani - who last week decided to pull advertising from the expensive Boston-area media market that reaches the southern portion of New Hampshire - comes in a distant third at 11 percent, a statistically tie with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, who each stand at 9 percent in the survey.

But the poll shows over 40 percent of voters in each party say they may change their minds over the next three weeks, an indication the standings in New Hampshire remain extremely volatile and may be affected by the results in the Iowa caucuses five days earlier.

In further evidence the New Hampshire race is still thoroughly unpredictable less than three weeks out, other polls out of the state this week have shown significantly different margins separating the top candidates in both parties.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, Clinton held a 12- point lead over Obama, and Romney was 12 points ahead of McCain. And in an American Research Group poll out Thursday, Clinton is 14 points ahead of Obama, while Romney and McCain are tied.

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (96 Responses)
  1. Ron, TX

    "Well, the first thing she intends to do, because you can do this without passing a bill, the first thing she intends to do is to send me and former President Bush and a number of other people around the world to tell them that America is open for business and cooperation again," Clinton said in response to a question from a supporter about what his wife's "number one priority" would be as president.
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/18/bill-clinton-george-hw-bush-will-help-president-hillary/
    Former President George H.W. Bush has shot down his successor Bill Clinton’s idea of a diplomatic mission under a Hillary Clinton presidency that would send him and other notables abroad to assure other nations that “America is open for business and cooperation again.”
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/18/elder-bush-nixes-clinton-trip-idea/

    So basically, Hillary isn't even in the White House yet, and she ALREADY FAILED to accomplish not only the -first thing- she plans to do, but also her number one priority... Didn't her campaign claim she could bring people together? I just don't see how that is true.

    December 21, 2007 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  2. Roger

    You Obama supporters are stuck in 1968. Your dreamers. The Republicans need only 270 points to win the electoral college which means the race comes down to Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. Obama won't win 3 of the 4 which means we're stuck with some idiot Republican pushing the same old thing- neoconism and the destruction of the US as a free secular country. More war, more debt, more illegal immigration. It just isn't worth it. Be pragmatic- choose the candidate that can win the electoral college.

    270towin

    December 21, 2007 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  3. kevin,japan

    Which Democrat can beat Huckabee in the general election?
    Barack Obama 0.65217391304348 65.2% [ 30 ]
    John Edwards 0.19565217391304 19.6% [ 9 ]
    Hillary Clinton 0.15217391304348 15.2% [

    December 21, 2007 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  4. John,boston,ma

    kevin,

    Yes! This is good news and I'm glad to hear it. I've been looking at national numbers and somehow Hillary, on the whole, is making a come back- but if Obama can pull Iowa and another of the early primaries maybe there's more hope than I thought.

    At the same time-Iowa polls (excepting the Des Moines Registers' which has, since the seventies, called almost every primary perfectly) are notoriously bad because of their caucus system.

    December 21, 2007 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  5. brain,washing dc

    John,
    Many people think if Obama doesn't take 3 out of 4 of the early states, he's finished on February 5th.
    I think I might agree with those people.

    But I find it entirely possible. I know Barack can take SC, but Nevada seems very distant. Iowa and New Hampshire are completely in the air.

    Actually, Michigan (yea us!) has it's primary after NH, but no one is on the ballot.
    I'll be voting for Ron Paul here. smile

    December 21, 2007 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  6. cathy,ca

    Many are predicting Obama will end up as the winner...all I can say is as some of you have said, a mike H vs Obama in the General Election would be one of the craziest elections of all time.

    December 21, 2007 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  7. jim,nashua,nh

    Here is one consistent finding that continues to come out in poll after poll. Barack Obama does better so far against the Republican nominees than does Hillary Clinton.

    Note that the electability polls that the Clinton camp usually cite are about who Democrats perceive to be most electable. For some reason, Democrats perceive Clinton to be most electable when the general election polls don’t support that.

    December 21, 2007 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  8. Ben ,nyc,ny

    Note that because Clinton and Obama have eaten up the majority of media attention, I am more apt to consider their electability polls compared to candidates who haven’t received the media spotlight and vetting.

    December 21, 2007 12:11 pm at 12:11 pm |
  9. John Smith

    The moron who wrote this story needs to get there facts straight. Its not New Hampshire that is a toss up its...IOWA!
    The writer meant to say IOWA...not New Hampshire. Hillary has a 12 point lead in New Hampshire.

    December 21, 2007 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  10. Ben ,derry,nh

    No Thank You Hillary – I'm for Obama !

    Barack Obama for a better America.

    It's time to Rise and Shine again America.

    December 21, 2007 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  11. vicky,boston,ma

    I am no Hillary fan, but I like to keep history from being totally distorted – if that is possible(?) – sure,
    Hillary made mistakes in her search for a health care solution but the MAJOR reasons for the legislation not passing in 1994 were efforts to defeat it by the Gingrich forces and Senator Dole, whose support was needed and NOT FORTH-COMING BECAUSE OF HIS OWN PRESIDENTIAL AMBITIONS.

    December 21, 2007 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  12. Makeba...Houston, TX

    I see Iowa going for Barack, I see NH doing the same, especially if he wins Iowa and teh Independants vote in the Dem primary, obviously he will then get SC. If he wins all three....Nevada is not that far away, especially with all that new fundraising capacity and an Edwards endorsement. My question is what happens after he wins the first 4? How much momentum will he need to carry the Feb 5 primaries? Any ideas people? I mean after the first 4...he would only need half of the Feb 5th primaries right?

    December 21, 2007 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  13. david,newton,iowa

    I am liking obama more and more. he is very articulate, quick, sharp, and refreshing. i did vote for clinton in 92 and 96, but those two are really getting on my nerves now. they really are ruthlessly ambitious and EXPECT to win. she has stuck by a serial adulterer for 30+ years. i mean huh? and poor chelsea knows she is the product of a loveless political marriage. at this point, i don't think one democratic candidate would do any better or worse than the other. as long as it isn't bush or a republican, they could put elmo in and i'd be happy. at least elmo would cheer everyone up! and let's face it. the candidates cabinet does all the work and if congress can get along with that candidate, who cares if it's hillary or obama? with the clinton track record, obama better make sure he's not on any charter planes that malfunction all of a sudden. yikes!

    Posted by: emmarose | Dec 15, 2007 8:02:33 PM

    Would the Clintons rather Obama lied like they did. Hillary had better remember her husband answer to a question regarding his drug use. Remember this?..."I tried it (marijuana) but I did not inhale.." Bill Clinton. Let us cut to the chase. The Clintons are outrightly desperate.

    December 21, 2007 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  14. fred,derry,NH

    Bill's comments about being a risk are bogus and smell of desperation. Ms Clinton is, by far, the riskiest candidate out there. A Hillary nomination will invigorate the demoralized Republicans like nothing else. The rednecks will come out of the wordwork to vote her down to keep and her and her pathetic husband out the WH. Obama on the other hand has many supporters who are Independents and even some Republicans. I suspect there is not one single republican that supports HRC.

    December 21, 2007 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  15. Middle America

    It appears Hillary's lead is not as stable as everyone thought. The first few states don't mean much to me, I'm waiting for February 5th, that will tell us who will be nominated. They will soon listen to the People speak, the politicians are all deaf at this point in time!!! They don't hear us when we say control the border, get inflation under control, help the middle class and get our troops out of IRAQ...but they will and soon. I want to retire soon but the way things are going I will have to work until I'm 70 years old!

    December 21, 2007 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  16. Ben, Keene, NH

    While Clinton and Obama argue about who has the best experience and judgment, it's clear to many of us that Joe Biden lays the most authentic claim to both. Glitz and the cameras follow the stars, in politics as in show biz, but running for office and being a good president are different skill sets. Of this group of Democrats, Biden is the one who belongs in the Oval Office.

    December 21, 2007 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  17. Carl, Dallas, TX

    I'm truly sick of these stupid polls.

    They mean nothing and will continue to mean nothing for people that use their brains and THINK for themselves.

    If you base your voting on some random poll, then you shouldnt' have been allowed permission to even be here...

    December 21, 2007 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  18. Mike, NY

    Giuliani beating Ron Paul in NH? Give me a break...

    December 21, 2007 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  19. josh

    Time for Clinton to plant some voters.

    December 21, 2007 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  20. Ben ,derry,nh

    I have taken many swings at honest Abe in my day. I will ALWAYS go to my reference gleaned from Dave Chappelle that America has many traditions, but lets look at our fabled past-time of baseball: oh, wait... enough has been said about that so there is no need to saddle up that horse. I base my vote on what I SEE as well as what I hear and read. If I wanted a dry candidate to be the figurehead of what used to be the greatest country in the world I would push to get 4 more years... but, once again, this is a horse that has already left the stable so there is no need to close the barn door. I will stick with my Dairy Queen until further notice.

    December 21, 2007 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  21. Dan, NJ

    It is ridiculous that a poll yesterday shows a 12 point lead for HRC and today's poll shows a tie. It is bad news for Obama that McCain is making a comeback.

    Regarding Obama's chances, I think a dead heat in NH is good for him right now. If he can pull off Iowa, that will likely surge him to victory in NH and SC. From there, the landscape of Feb 5th changes completely.

    December 21, 2007 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  22. Daniel, NY

    Another poll of New Hampshire released today has Clinton opening up a much larger lead against Obama - but McCain going up even further and tying Romney completely. Link.

    December 21, 2007 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  23. Danielle, Manassas, VA

    I am wondering why people don't call Obama by his full name. I mean as in: Barack Hussein Obama. Hussein is a fine name.

    December 21, 2007 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  24. Reggie, Germany

    People wake up Hillary is a meglomaniac!! I've always tried to figure out why Hillary thinks she has all this experience.

    Well now I know!!! It's because she's delusional!!

    Hillary secretly believes she was president already!!! Don't believe me? Check her interview with Candy Crowly ,

    http://ianschwartz.com/2007/11/07/video-hillary-when-im-president-again/

    Or go to:

    http://www.campaignnetwork.org/default.aspx

    and select the vedio from her speech at Council Bluff Iowa with Bob Kerry and listen to her again make the statement. It occurs while she is talking about health care. These are just two instances, there are more.

    Did I miss something?? When was she elected the first time?? These statement really concern me. Once maybe you say ohh O.K., but repeatedly?? Sounds almost Nixonian

    Why are CNN and the other MSM not talking about this?? HEY CANDY WHY AREN'T YOU????

    You guys print in great detail a shameless plug from Bill calling Hillary a genius but refuse to report statements made by Hillary which if made by any other candidate would be front page news for days, i.e. Kucinich and U.F.O's.

    Well what planet was Hillary on when she became president the first time???

    Hmmmmmm maybe thats why Bill thinks she such a genius. Must be where those 35 years of experience came from too.

    December 21, 2007 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  25. dana,georgia

    OBAMA! We need fresh blood in the White House! NO MORE BUSH! NO MORE CLINTONS! OBAMA has intellect and the moral principles to effectively lead our nation. I cannot say the same for Hillary ...

    December 21, 2007 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
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