December 21st, 2007
11:56 AM ET
7 years ago

Obama, Clinton in dead heat, N.H. poll says

A new poll shows the New Hampshire primary race is extremely volatile.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are locked in a dead heat in New Hampshire, according to a new poll released Friday, setting up what’s likely to be an all-out sprint in the final 18 days before the Granite State’s primary.

Clinton and Obama each draw support from 32 percent of the state’s likely Democratic voters in the new USA Today/Gallup poll. John Edwards is a distant third with 18 percent, while Bill Richardson comes in fourth with 8 percent.

Meanwhile, the poll shows a tightening race on the Republican side as well, with Mitt Romney's once double-digit lead narrowing to 7 points over a resurgent John McCain, 34 percent to 27 percent.

Rudy Giuliani - who last week decided to pull advertising from the expensive Boston-area media market that reaches the southern portion of New Hampshire - comes in a distant third at 11 percent, a statistically tie with Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, who each stand at 9 percent in the survey.

But the poll shows over 40 percent of voters in each party say they may change their minds over the next three weeks, an indication the standings in New Hampshire remain extremely volatile and may be affected by the results in the Iowa caucuses five days earlier.

In further evidence the New Hampshire race is still thoroughly unpredictable less than three weeks out, other polls out of the state this week have shown significantly different margins separating the top candidates in both parties.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, Clinton held a 12- point lead over Obama, and Romney was 12 points ahead of McCain. And in an American Research Group poll out Thursday, Clinton is 14 points ahead of Obama, while Romney and McCain are tied.

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (96 Responses)
  1. anderson,nyc,ny

    I think obama might win if Hillary kept changing her positions and she kept planting people. she is also really dirty in her campaigning. i would...i can't i am gonna say this...rather vote for him then Hillary.

    December 21, 2007 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  2. fred,derry,NH

    I HAVE TO AGREE WITH YOU AND IT GOES FOR HILLARY TOO...... NEITHER ONE IS PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL.......BOTH HAVE SELF SERVING AGENDAS AND HILLARY HAS AN EGO AND WANTA BE BOSS AGENDA
    I LIKE THE POSTER MYSELF"""""FREE SPEACH""""'FREE OPINIONS""""" STILL PERMITED IN AMERICA..........

    December 21, 2007 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  3. tina,cleveland,ohio

    I am a democrate and yes I have to agree. The national polls indicate that the we will loose the election. I want change but I don't beleive the country will elect a blackman or a woman as president. The election hinges not with majority vote but by electorial college. The states we need to carry inorder to win the election will not go democrate. Florida for instance will not go to the democrates. When you travel outside palm beach and go north it is republican. If the republicans carry florida it is virtually impossible for us to win the election. I've been saying it for months we need someone like Edwards. If you look at polls the republican's 3rd pick Guiliani beats Hillary or Obama. We are set up again for a big let down because we are blinded by our own stuborness. Out odf the top 3 probably Obama is the best choice but again he wouldn't win. We need to unite or we will have a conservative in office again.

    December 21, 2007 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  4. carrol brown

    BO is not far off the mark, but Hillary will find most of her votes coming from the Clinton lovers and the socialists. Beyond that, how many other votes she casually recieves will depend on who the non-socialist candidate will be running against him

    December 21, 2007 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  5. jason,nyc,ny

    Obama is more confident he can do well in the early primary voting state and predicted voters who are paying close attention to the Democratic race will choose him over his top opponent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton

    December 21, 2007 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  6. Ron, Seattle, Washington

    Kudos to CNN for presenting such a well-balanced and objective article on the whole poll issue. This really restores my faith in the media again seeing CNN point out other polls with vastly different results. Refreshing to finally see an unbiases piece.

    December 21, 2007 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  7. jd, des moines, iowa

    Although the USA Today/Gallup poll is released today as CNN states, that poll showing a tie between Hillary and Obama is actually a few days old (poll taken on dec 17-19).

    Another poll ending the same day of Dec 19 (Dec 16-19) released much earlier by American Research Group
    shows that Hillary is ahead by 14 points.

    MOST polls of recent days show that Hillary is gaining grounds in Iowa and New Hampshire.

    The most recent Dec 19 national poll of Fox News shows that Hillary is ahead over Obama by 29 points (49 v 20). She has improved a lot nationally in the last 3 polls, getting close to her October all time high.

    December 21, 2007 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  8. wallette,san f,ca

    The Billary campaign plays dirty all time, and takes in huge $$ from China through surrogates.

    Elect Hillary and get China debts at the highest level of government.
    Obama offers fresh blood in the white house....

    December 21, 2007 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  9. renna,ct

    I agree with you,
    Obama is already 4% higher in stats then Hillary.
    We NEED changes, and improvment,
    VOTE 0BAMA 08'

    December 21, 2007 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  10. joeG,ohio

    I agree, Obama has the best chance at beating the Repubs in the General election.

    OBAMA '08

    December 21, 2007 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  11. Karen, Santa Cruz, Ca

    Wow! Are all the Hillary Haters just sitting at their computers, waiting for more news items, so they can leap on board and instantly circumvent her good news with their venom? Judging by the postings here, it's obvious that Obama supporters are pretty much out of touch with reality as far as his chance of winning goes. Boy, are they in for a big surprise!

    December 21, 2007 02:01 pm at 2:01 pm |
  12. Scott, Royal Oak, MI

    Please wake up everybody!!

    No matter what Hillary tries to SAY, Obama is leading ALL Republican candidates in head-to-head polling!

    I agree that racism is still a problem in America. BUT FACE IT: this man transcends race and he IS ELECTABLE. In fact, way more so than Hillary

    December 21, 2007 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  13. Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA

    As John Edwards pointed out in his appearance on Hardball this week, he beats all GOP candidates in head-to-head polls and he does it consistently. _That's_ electability

    December 21, 2007 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  14. Ryan O. Wilmington, DE

    Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Biden...

    As long as its not another Repuplican for President than I dont care. We cant afford it!!! I'll take any of the above!

    December 21, 2007 02:24 pm at 2:24 pm |
  15. jd, des moines, iowa

    Obama's poll standings in Iowa and New Hampshire are like Obama himself, the reality is WORSE than the looks.

    He draws a lot of supports from university and college students. While they may tell the pollsters over the phone that they support Obama now, many of these young kids will never spend a few hours to show up to caucus or vote because (a) a good TV show or football is in progress, or (b) they are out-of-town students or residents. In the 2004 election, only 17% of the eligible voting students showed up to vote.

    In addition, as the caucus or voting dates draw near, the voters will think harder and will not vote Obama because of: his inexperience, his color of skin, his indiscretions when young, his muslim background, his dirty tricks, his flip-flopps in policies, etc. In short, he is not electable, and it would be a disaster for the democrat party to nominate him.

    December 21, 2007 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  16. jaguar

    What cunning by the Clintions. Playing passive-agressive slash and burn politics, trying to undermine Obama’s campaign. First they tried to lie and say that Hillary and Obama has the same position on Iraq–even before the invasion! They were trying to destroy his standing on that position by misleading. Now they are feeding the NY Times info. meant to undercut Obama’s principles. Can’t wait to see how she is going to explain all the special interest money she is getting. Maybe she will leak to the Times that kids giving Obama $10 dollar donations are lobbying for more access to Ridalin?

    December 21, 2007 02:46 pm at 2:46 pm |
  17. Stephen Davis, Sierra Vista AZ

    I like Obama but I was not going to vote for him because I thought it would have been a wasted vote. I never would have thought America would vote for a black president, but i'm begining to think that Obama could win this election now. Maybe my vote won't go to waste

    December 21, 2007 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  18. Helen, NY

    Both are not fit to be president of our country period.

    December 21, 2007 02:51 pm at 2:51 pm |
  19. Go B in nyc

    I hope Obama wins the nomination.

    Still, I'm hoping Obama stays a few points behind Clinton in the polls up until election day.

    Otherwise, it is frightening to think about how desperate the Clintons will become. They will settle for no less than 16 years in the White House.

    You can count on the Clintons to risk their honor and integrity to get those 16 years.

    They will lie until it is too late for the truth to matter.

    December 21, 2007 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  20. Meks, florida

    They are not in dead heat. The polls since monday have been consistent in showing Sen Clinton is on the rise though the liberal media is supressing this as much as they could. Visit Realpolitics.com to see for yourselves. It is so bad that even Real politics chose the poll that showed Sen Clinton leading by the narrowest margin as their main story. Reverse was the case when Obama temprarily surged ahead two weeks ago before the empty suit was discovered by additional voters. Many hearts will be broken in weeks to come and i only hope they will be mended well enough to vote in the general election. For some of you Obama fans (democratic party fans) that idiotically state you will vote another candidate if Sen Clinton wins, have you asked yourself what happens when Sen Clinton's fans decide not to vote Sen Obama if he gets the nomination. Think twice before making senseless statements. Sen Clinton evokes more passion from her supporters than any other candidates and i think such self-serving statements should not come out of the mouth of any democrat. Support and vote your candidate, the result will be known in a month's time when the primaries are tallied.

    December 21, 2007 03:18 pm at 3:18 pm |
  21. Henric, Amsterdam

    People like Obama because he's genuine and a natural leader. People like to listen and trust people who have those qualities. And they like them even more when they have something to say. Which is what both Obama and Hillary do. But while Obama oozes confidence and has all the marks of a natural leader, Hillary has spent 20 years twisting and turning trying to be all of the above. She isn't genuine. She's a product. Everything is scripted, tested. Real leaders don't need that, because people just recognize them for what they are.

    December 21, 2007 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  22. JIM SHELL BARDSTOWN KY.40004

    AMERICA GET READY!
    NANCY PELOSI FAMOUS WORDS "THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE SPOKEN" (TOO BAD SHE DID NOT HEAR THEM)WILL HAVE A WHOLE NEW MEANING ONCE THE PRESIDENTAL ELECTION IS DECIDED.
    BARAK OBAMA WILL WIN THE PRESIDENTAL NOMINEE ELECTION AND WIN THE PRESIDENTAL ELECTION. WHY***?
    HE IS THE CLOSEST THING AMERICANS HAVE AS A CHOICE THAT DOES NOT FIT THE CATAGORY OF WE KNOW WHAT WE WILL GET FROM USUAL DEMS, AND REPS, THAT WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LOBBIEST, AND MONEY. BETWEEN THE DIVISION OF PRO. LIFE AND ABORTION RIGHTS HALF THE VOTES WILL EQUAL OUT. BECAUSE OF NO INDEPENDANT CANDATE PEOPLE WILL VOTE FOR OMAMA JUST TO SHOW THE POLITICANS THE ARE TIRED OF THIS AND THEY WILL NOT TOLERATE BEING TREATED AS DUMMIES AND TAKEN FOR GRANET. EVEN VOTERS WHOM HAVE RACE RESERVATIONS WILL VOTE FOR OBAMA BECAUSE THEY STILL RECONIZE HIM AS A BETTER OPTION THAN ANY OF THE OTHERS.
    WHEN THE ELECTION IS OVER THE HEADLINES WILL BE: POLITICIANS LOST. LOBBIEST IN TURMOIL SAY "MY GOD WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT THIS ENTERNET" WE CAN NO LONGER LIE AND BUY WITHOUT THE PEOPLE NOT KNOWING. THE PEOPLE ARE NO LONGER STUPID

    December 21, 2007 03:46 pm at 3:46 pm |
  23. Daniel Bells, Boston, MA

    Whether it be Obama or Hillary, we need a democrat who can take a white house. If Obama wins, Hillary followers including Bill should campaign for him and if Hillary wins, then Oprah should be gracious enough to accompany Obama on Hillary's platform.
    Dems for 08 to the White House!

    December 21, 2007 03:52 pm at 3:52 pm |
  24. Joeley Reno, Nevada

    Barak Obama talks a good line but he's WEAK!

    We are at a cross-road in our history.

    It is not the time for a smooth talking newbie to be thrown into the messy politics of DC.

    The hard core neocons in DC will chew Obama up and spit him out.

    We need HILLARY!

    She's got the guts, the experience and the ability to make positive changes in the imperfect political system we've created in this country.

    If you were hiring a CEO to run your company would you choose the the achedemic who feeds you the 'hype or wish ego' or the battle tested candidate whose experience, ability and performance is a matter of fact.

    I will choose the candidate I know will effectively and productively navigate the political waters of Washington DC.

    HILLARY CLINTON 2008!

    December 21, 2007 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  25. Todd, Sacramento California

    How can Obama get votes! He misses mosts votes on the floor and bags everyone else on what they voted for.At least we know where they stand. With Obama you get???????? All Talk!

    December 21, 2007 06:17 pm at 6:17 pm |
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