December 23rd, 2007
09:20 AM ET
7 years ago

New poll finds dead heat in New Hampshire presidential races

(CNN) - With just over two weeks to go until New Hampshire’s voters head to the polls, the state’s Republican and Democratic presidential races both appear to lack clear frontrunners, according to a new survey released by the Boston Globe Sunday.

On the Republican side, John McCain, who trailed GOP leader Mitt Romney by 15 points in last month’s Globe poll, is within 3 points of the former Massachusetts governor in the latest poll – a statistically insignificant margin. The Arizona senator has moved from third to second place since last month’s survey.

Romney has the support of 28 percent of likely Republican primary voters surveyed, McCain has 25 percent, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has 14 percent, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has 10 percent.

Among Democrats, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama appears to have erased a 14-point deficit in last month's Globe poll, and now finds himself in a statistical dead heat with the former frontrunner, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

In the Globe's latest survey of likely Democratic primary voters, Obama registered 30 percent support to Clinton's 28 percent. Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards had 14 percent support in the poll, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson had 7 percent.

Around 40 percent of likely voters in both parties said they had yet to make up their minds.

The poll was based on a survey of 400 Democratic and 404 Republican likely primary voters conducted December 16 – 20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The Granite State’s first-in-the-nation primary is scheduled for January 8, just five days after the Iowa caucuses.

–CNN Political Desk Editor Jamie Crawford

soundoff (21 Responses)
  1. Lloyd DeMoss, Arcadia, Iowa

    January 3rd and we will know the truth that has been clouded by the media pack of lies. It is not the candidates that scare me nearly as much as the media. They think they must sensationalize every thing. If they would be honest the electability numbers show who the next president should be. Go John Go.

    December 23, 2007 11:52 am at 11:52 am |
  2. Ginny, Byron, CA

    Didn't the Boston Globe endorse Obama? Who do you think they are going to give the edge to in the "dead heat between" Hillary and Obama?

    December 23, 2007 11:55 am at 11:55 am |
  3. Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA

    HRC's going down with help from Bill, and Obama's still unelectable in the general, but an Edwards-Obama ticket might work (not so with the reverse).

    December 23, 2007 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  4. James Hall

    Where are all the comments from big mouth Ron Paul supporters claiming your poll is rigged? Do you delete them?

    December 23, 2007 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  5. Steve, Portland, OR

    I really do get tired of persons posting that Obabma is unelectable. Even the recent polls indicated that he is the more likely democratic candidate to beat any of the republicans. Hillary is the one unelectable. Almost half the voters can't stand this woman and THAT is the problem with a democratic unelectable candidate. Not Obama. I do agree Obama and Edwards would make a very good ticket.

    December 23, 2007 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  6. Kevin,FL

    WOULD YOU GUYS STOP WITH ALL THESE POLLS EVERYDAY ITS A NEW ONE. THEY MEAN NOTHING, ON JAN 3RD WE WILL SEE WHO REALLY WINS.. AND ITS GOING TO BE HRC

    December 23, 2007 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  7. Andy, New York, New York

    Giuliani-McCain in 2008! Plain and simple! America brings military experience and Senate leadership. Giuliani brings strong big city government management skills and a no-nonsense approach to law enforcement.

    December 23, 2007 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  8. Matt, California

    I don't believe this poll for one minute in NH. How can CNN release a poll just a few days ago saying Hillary has a 12 point lead, and then post a news article saying that their poll must have been wrong because now a new Boston Globe poll says so!? What is going on with the media these days!? Do they even think about the logic of this? The Boston Globe poll has a margin of error of 4.9%! That's 5 percentage points that could be completely off.

    Tell me this, how is it possible for Hillary to have a 12 point lead in one poll and then the next day have the Boston Globe (who by the way endorsed Obama) now claim somehow that huge 12 point lead has vanished?! Man, Obama must have talked to a lot of NH voters in just a few days and swayed all those committed Hillary voters to his side if we are to believe this logic. We should be looking at trend lines in polls, not each individual poll. Come on CNN, just cause other news outlets are reporting it doesn't make it true.

    December 23, 2007 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  9. Charles Held, Mount Holly NC

    Primary polls ARE historically inaccurate. Just take a look at John Kerry in 6th place at 4% four years ago:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/17/opinion/polls/main589167.shtml

    This year's GOP polls will be even worse. Consider:

    – Pollsters consider "likely primary voters" to be those who voted in the previous primary. For Republicans this means 2004 when there was a record low turnout and GWB was unopposed. The only people voting in the 04 GOP primary were Dub-Bots.

    – Pollsters are forbidden BY LAW from auto-dialing cellphones. So if you are cell-only, you never get polled.

    – Pollsters do not call voters who weren't registered last time around (i.e. nobody 17-21 gets called), nor do they contact voters who have switched registration recently.

    ALL of these factors are presently contributing to severe underpolling of one candidate: RON PAUL.

    December 23, 2007 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  10. Russell, North Carolina

    Anybody but Hillary.

    December 23, 2007 04:27 pm at 4:27 pm |
  11. Jeremy, Jacksonville Fl

    WAIT a minute CNN. Just last week the CNN poll had Clinton up 16% in NH. Now the Globe has obama ahead 2% just a week later, which is consistent with all other polls. It is clear that CNN is working for the HRC camp. The fantastic variance created the CNN poll was an egregious mistake.

    December 23, 2007 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  12. Adam, Plano, TX

    HRC's going down with help from Bill, and Obama's still unelectable in the general, but an Edwards-Obama ticket might work (not so with the reverse).
    Posted By Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA : December 23, 2007 12:00 pm

    funny jeff, the national polls seem to prove you wrong when it comes to electability with obama. do you just ignore those? or are you jaded by racism?

    December 23, 2007 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  13. Ajay Jain

    The GOP voters are still "looking" for an answer to their prayers/inspiration to choose a nominee:

    http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2007/12/20/a-gop-free-for-all/

    Anyone can see the stark contrast in the two parties. The Democratic nomination is nationally wrapped up if you just ignore the EARLY states which is pre-2007 wisdom!!! SUPER DUPER TUESDAY will decide the nominee.

    The Republicans are still looking. After the 2006 midterm election, I think Hillary couldn’t choose a more perfect year to run for president. The whole country is now leaning toward Democrats. People are just so unhappy and fed up with the Republican Party which has controlled the country for almost 8 years now. Any Democrats (yes even Hillary) has better chance to win 2008 presidency than any republican.

    I don’t see all these unhappy Americans who clearly want a change in direction in 2006 would vote for another republican again over Hillary.

    In 2006, we all saw a lot of good republicans lost their seats to some never-heard-before Democrats because of this effect.

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

    December 23, 2007 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  14. Ellie, Salem OR

    Anybody but Obama.

    December 23, 2007 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  15. Betty Jo Wiant, Youngstown,Ohio

    Yes, finally some who stands up for what our country is based on and needs to put there hearts toward. Jesus is the reason for the season. Huckabee no apology is need. We have freedom to believe. No one can take that right from anyone. Huckabee is the right man to run this country. Huckabee has my vote.

    December 23, 2007 10:44 pm at 10:44 pm |
  16. Glen, Arp Texas

    These polls don't mean anything. There's a new day dawning. The internet is the new information highway. Ron Paul will surprize the pundits in the primaries.
    LOL, can't wait to see the media spin after the early primaries.
    Peace, Prosperity and Freedom with Ron Paul.

    December 24, 2007 05:19 am at 5:19 am |
  17. Chris, Toledo, OH

    John McCain's campaign has been over for months.

    December 24, 2007 09:50 am at 9:50 am |
  18. hey allons,tn

    hey nobody but clinton if you don't like her leave go away republican take that hippocrat president with you end of problem.

    December 25, 2007 06:32 am at 6:32 am |
  19. Ajay Jain

    Would it not be fair to the leading candidate Hillary to say STATISTICAL dead heat? Just a thought for FAIR and Balanced reporting.

    People, pollsters, pundits give undue importance to the Iowa caucus. Isn’t it time to break the back of this myth of Iowa’s importance? They haven’t picked a winner since 1976. And Clinton and Kerry won the democratic nominations without winning in Iowa. Enough with the rural pandering.

    What has happened to Analysis at CNN. Can somebody tell the public that the 2008 primary season / cycle is DIFFERENT from yesteryears! We are talking January 3rd caucusing next to the New Year. Then New Hampshire then South Carolina THEN:

    SUPER DUPER TUESDAY. Its going to be different this time. The early states voters may as well stay warm at home. Super Tuesday will decide the nominee. That needs money and organisation which the fringe candidates do not have!

    I still am betting on the come-back-kid McCain now that DIRTY TRICKS Dubya and Karl Rove is no more!!!!

    Go Hillary44 08! http://hillaryis44.org/

    December 26, 2007 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  20. jay obrien

    Hello, I dont understand why your decision would be so hard to make when it seems to me that you was very understanding all the years that woman was left out of the goverment and now you have a oppertinty to show that you are not just one way for the goverment to be run all these years by a just man lets all take this oppertinty to give a woman a chance to see what she can do for our coounty I know that they say it is a big decision between and woman and afic americam I believe that woman have been left out of the goeverment just as m uch as the afic american people if you dont think this is true go back thru history and I think you will understand I am saying...I am a seventy two year ole man I believe that we have left woman out of the work force the goverment and high positions that we should give them this great chance to see what they can really do...thank you very much.

    February 4, 2008 10:13 am at 10:13 am |
  21. sally whan

    How can you even think if not voting for Hillary Clinton after all they have done for you....she should be the only one you are thinking bout...how could you even think of voting for Obama during the debates you even showed that you had a feeling that Hillary was being picking on her and so forth,,,,,and Obama dont say anything what he is going to do for us and never looks us in the eye and our Hillary always is right on with anserwer and never looks down...Change he says but he never says what the hell is going to change please he talks with a fork tonuge...and by the way look what he has done to poor ole Illinois....so I hope we see that you are going to do the right thing....and I belive that Hillary has more expersive with health care and taking of seniours than Obama and she has been working on this for several long years...thank you and hope you do the right thing for us....

    February 4, 2008 10:18 am at 10:18 am |

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