December 30th, 2007
12:55 PM ET
10 years ago

New poll: Iowa races too close to call

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The Democratic and Republican races in Iowa have both become statistical dead heats in a new poll released Sunday.

The battle for first place on the Republican side is, at the moment, a toss-up between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon survey of likely caucus goers. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama appear to have virtually identical levels of support with four days to go before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The poll mirrors the results of other recent surveys, many of which have found Republican and Democratic races in Iowa too close to call. One out of every three likely Republican voters surveyed, and one of every five Democrats, say they may still change their minds.

The phone poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus attendees and 400 likely Republican caucus attendees in Iowa was conducted December 26-28, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. (Full results after the jump)

An American Research Group poll released Saturday had a different view of the race. It found Mitt Romney had regained his lead over Mike Huckabee in Iowa — the first Hawkeye State survey in over a month to show the former Massachusetts governor in the top spot there.

On the Democratic side, the ARG survey found Hillary Clinton held a narrow lead over rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. Other recent polls, including Mason-Dixon, have shown the Democratic race in a statistical dead heat. (Full MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon results after the jump)

Likely Democratic Caucus Goers'
Choice for President

John Edwards 24 percent
Hillary Clinton 23 percent
Barack Obama 22 percent
Bill Richardson 12 percent
Joe Biden 8 percent
Chris Dodd 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich 1 percent

Likely Republican Caucus Goers'
Choice for President

Mitt Romney 27 percent
Mike Huckabee 23 percent
Fred Thompson 14 percent
John McCain 13 percent
Rudy Giuliani 5 percent
Ron Paul 5 percent
Duncan Hunter 1 percent

Sampling error for both polls: plus or minus 5 percentage points

Filed under: Iowa
soundoff (43 Responses)
  1. JA

    To Aware's above comment.
    Come to Iowa and check out how close the race is and how undecided a large percentage of Iowans still are. I know I talk to them daily.
    I guess we take the Iowa Caucus seriously. With all the stumping going on in very small communities all over the state so do all of the candidates.

    December 30, 2007 09:46 pm at 9:46 pm |
  2. s.positive

    Like it or not, the fact still remains that voting for a candidate with a high negative is a wasted vote pure and simple...

    December 30, 2007 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  3. benj

    You sure got that right when you said Obama needs to think the media if he wins. Chris Matthews on MSNBC has done nothing but push for Obama for the last three months, yet he calls FOX NEWS bias. He used to be my favorite and now I have no use for him at all. We need Hillary for our president. Women are strong , good leaders and make good decisions. She is the best democrat running.

    December 30, 2007 10:09 pm at 10:09 pm |
  4. Seam, Philly, Pa

    If Hillary wins the democratic ticket, I am seriously voting Republican for President. I am sick and tired of Bush-Clinton. People need to wake up and vote someone different. Don't let Bill or anyone else scare you into believing Hillary is the most experienced and most ready to be President. The only experience she has is wearing her last name. She's a joke. I beg people to trust something different, and let this country move forward with a new name.

    December 30, 2007 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm |
  5. nyaunu

    Lets not forget that,we are looking for a president to lead the most powerfull nation on earth not one for hollywood.And have got one out there,yes we have,McCain stands tall. Nyaunu Columbus,OH

    December 30, 2007 10:57 pm at 10:57 pm |

    S.positive wasted vote??? I must disagree that may be what the media has lead you to believe. Don't believe the hype. Polls don't equal votes my friend, for that matter neither do celebrity endorsements. So stand up for what you believe, or for the candidate who most closely resembles your beliefs.

    [E]very Man who comes among us, and takes up a piece of Land, becomes a Citizen, and by our Constitution has a Voice in Elections, and a share in the Government of the Country.
    Benjamin Franklin, 1784

    P.s. "Hillary the Republican"??? Just look up Mr. Fox News himself Rupert Murdoch. He threw a fundraiser for Hillary over the summer. "Stop Hillary Express" -Sean Hannity??? Stop the b.s.!!!

    December 30, 2007 11:56 pm at 11:56 pm |
  7. karnac1

    Where the remaining 31 percent of the undecided and democratic candidates not being viable will decide it Jan 3

    December 31, 2007 12:37 am at 12:37 am |
  8. P. J. Doley

    Our country has many problems mostly created by George Bush and his appointees:
    -We are on a financial treadmill taking the U. S. backwards increasing our National debt and reducing the value of the Dollar.
    -We have lost our image with nations overseas and even among allies because of Bush's arrogant and ignorant attiude that led and keeps making the wrong decisions.
    -We have ignored the rights and needs of the Islamic people, lining up unilaterally with Israel even when this nation has ignored the rights of the Palestinians for a very long time and killed many innocent people under the premise that there were terrorists.
    The U. S. needs Mitt Romney who has proven to be articulate, bright, intelligent, well educated, with the experience of solving the problems mentioned above as an effective Governor and considers all the Americans' short term and long term interests in his decisions.

    December 31, 2007 01:16 am at 1:16 am |
  9. Maria

    There has been so much emphasis on Obama by the media over the youth vote and his famous stars campaigning for him. These two groups do not translate into votes for a caucus/primaries. In the end, Clinton will win. Her voters tend to be middle age and older and these people vote. Her biggest challenge in Iowa is John Edwards, who has been living there for virtually four years.

    December 31, 2007 01:23 am at 1:23 am |
  10. HKL

    With the campaign spirits of Obama, Americans are now returning to the touch and truth of nature. Americans have been too long in relying on artificial logics
    and idelistic wishes independing of the world cultures.
    The world needs to co-exist and survive with mutual repsects from each other. It has been these irrespects and arrogance towards the rest of the world, that has drove the world apart from the good nature of the American people.
    With the genuine human nature of the Obama team, and an excellent team of professional executives consisting all kinds of tactical epxerinces can be gatherd to rebuild the American values and international connectivety. American never was dependent on one individual president for all the know how, knowledge and exoertise. It must the the team work of many talented and genuine American.
    The major importance is the guindance from the president with direction, spirits, honesty, trust, and genuine human nature..... which migh have been lost in the last eight years of American presidency.
    Obama may just reconnect USA with the rest of the world and resolve the trust among human races.
    Gid bless USA and Obama. We may be in a better world with Obama leadin America.

    December 31, 2007 03:06 am at 3:06 am |
  11. Howard


    Just heard Bush is beginning a surge of troops into Pakistan during January, under the guise of training the Pakistani Military. Bush/Clinton/Bush/? NO MORE CLINTON/BUSH!!!

    Please vote Ron Paul for President to end this administrations insanity

    Thank you,
    Howard Roth

    December 31, 2007 03:09 am at 3:09 am |
  12. Joe, TX

    As a lifelong Republican, I'd like Chris in SF and Jaime in AZ to know they've got it all wrong. I'd very much consider voting for Obama or Edwards, but I can guarantee you that if Hillary gets the Democratic nod, I'll work like crazy to make sure her candidacy goes down in flames. I've had enough of these family political dynasties. This country needs a major change, not more of the same entrenched Washington political elite. Democrats, if you want to get Republican votes, give us somebody to vote for!

    December 31, 2007 03:26 am at 3:26 am |
  13. Julia

    Obama is going to win, hands down. He has what it takes to be the change that the country wants to see and needs. Hillary, in my opinion, is rude and stuck-up and doesn't have the kind of personality I would want my President to have. I know a good President isn't based on personality alone, but it makes a difference to me if I can relate to my candidate, and I do to Obama. He is going to win it!

    December 31, 2007 05:44 am at 5:44 am |
  14. K Wilkinson Texas

    I just read another article on CNN about Huckabee calling Romney dishonest. I had to laugh. Huckabee is SO dishonest it makes my skin crawl! He has such a bad record of political policies, ethics violations, and bigotry towards other religions that the only think he can do to battle Mitt Romney is scream,"Romney's attacking me, he's dishonest, and my personal favorite...I don't like his religion"!

    News Flash–Huckabee doesn't like anybody's religion unless it closely matches his own. He as offended Catholics and Mormons all over the country. That is nearly 100 million people! He is the most divisive candidate in the race.

    Huckabee also made the comment in the article that if Mitt won the GOP nomination that he would not support him. Again I laugh, how many millions will not support Huckabee because of his bigotry? The only reason Huckabee would not support Mitt is because of his religion. He is truly a hateful man not fit to be our president.

    December 31, 2007 08:10 am at 8:10 am |
  15. concernediowan

    I do know that I will not vote for Huckabee. I live in a city that is deeply affected by illegal immigration. Huckabee has been a supporter of illegal immigrants, in-state tuition, touchback policy?, and more. He recently changed his immigration stance to a tougher platform, which makes me trust him even less.

    December 31, 2007 08:58 am at 8:58 am |
  16. Kelly, Indianapolis, IN

    Joe, you are so right. I have been saying all along that the only way I see the Dems losing is if HRC gets the nomination. She will rally the Republicans like nothing else could.

    I know at least three strong Republicans who want to vote for Obama! They may not agree with him on every issue, but they recognize his ability to unite and inspire.

    Go Obama!

    December 31, 2007 09:11 am at 9:11 am |

    I am surprised at the level some people will go in supporting Obama whose horse will definitely not win the WH.
    I am an independent and a black man but has never believed that color should play an effect in my electoral support.
    Obama is being pushed by some Hillary or Clinton haters in either the democratic or republican party, most who have never seen Clinton or wife before. These people have closed their reasoning to looking at all indices before joining the mouthing of dirty words against the Clintons. People should know that majority of the voters are not black, and the coments do not, and will not crystallize into votes.
    Mouthing negavtive words against candidates on the comments section will also not sway experienced caucus goers or voters.
    Talking about some useless propaganda like not having a dynasty or another Bush or Clinton will not work. Bill Clinton after all the attacks, and so called electability or negatives still won a better second term in office. The Republicans fought to stop him, but were silenced.
    If Hillary wins the democratic nomination, she has a massive chance of getting the final honor. The Republicans want to stop this, and reason why they are supporting a sure loser in Obama.
    To stop the republicans, Hillary is it!!!!

    December 31, 2007 03:33 pm at 3:33 pm |
  18. JD in Iowa

    Don't we want real change? We don't need another clinton, or another bush! If you want a man with integrity and the experience to make real change, Chris Dodd is the only one you can vote for. This is not a popuarity contest, or a contest to see which family can get the most family members in the white house. Lets have real change!

    December 31, 2007 10:42 pm at 10:42 pm |
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