December 30, 2007
Posted: 12:55 PM ET

WASHINGTON (CNN) – The Democratic and Republican races in Iowa have both become statistical dead heats in a new poll released Sunday.

The battle for first place on the Republican side is, at the moment, a toss-up between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee in the new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon survey of likely caucus goers. Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, and Barack Obama appear to have virtually identical levels of support with four days to go before the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

The poll mirrors the results of other recent surveys, many of which have found Republican and Democratic races in Iowa too close to call. One out of every three likely Republican voters surveyed, and one of every five Democrats, say they may still change their minds.

The phone poll of 400 likely Democratic caucus attendees and 400 likely Republican caucus attendees in Iowa was conducted December 26-28, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. (Full results after the jump)

An American Research Group poll released Saturday had a different view of the race. It found Mitt Romney had regained his lead over Mike Huckabee in Iowa — the first Hawkeye State survey in over a month to show the former Massachusetts governor in the top spot there.

On the Democratic side, the ARG survey found Hillary Clinton held a narrow lead over rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards. Other recent polls, including Mason-Dixon, have shown the Democratic race in a statistical dead heat. (Full MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon results after the jump)

MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers'
Choice for President

John Edwards 24 percent
Hillary Clinton 23 percent
Barack Obama 22 percent
Bill Richardson 12 percent
Joe Biden 8 percent
Chris Dodd 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich 1 percent

MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon
Likely Republican Caucus Goers'
Choice for President

Mitt Romney 27 percent
Mike Huckabee 23 percent
Fred Thompson 14 percent
John McCain 13 percent
Rudy Giuliani 5 percent
Ron Paul 5 percent
Duncan Hunter 1 percent

Sampling error for both polls: plus or minus 5 percentage points

Filed under: Iowa


JD in Iowa   December 31st, 2007 10:42 pm ET

Don't we want real change? We don't need another clinton, or another bush! If you want a man with integrity and the experience to make real change, Chris Dodd is the only one you can vote for. This is not a popuarity contest, or a contest to see which family can get the most family members in the white house. Lets have real change!

John ATLANTA, GEORGIA   December 31st, 2007 3:33 pm ET

I am surprised at the level some people will go in supporting Obama whose horse will definitely not win the WH.
I am an independent and a black man but has never believed that color should play an effect in my electoral support.
Obama is being pushed by some Hillary or Clinton haters in either the democratic or republican party, most who have never seen Clinton or wife before. These people have closed their reasoning to looking at all indices before joining the mouthing of dirty words against the Clintons. People should know that majority of the voters are not black, and the coments do not, and will not crystallize into votes.
Mouthing negavtive words against candidates on the comments section will also not sway experienced caucus goers or voters.
Talking about some useless propaganda like not having a dynasty or another Bush or Clinton will not work. Bill Clinton after all the attacks, and so called electability or negatives still won a better second term in office. The Republicans fought to stop him, but were silenced.
If Hillary wins the democratic nomination, she has a massive chance of getting the final honor. The Republicans want to stop this, and reason why they are supporting a sure loser in Obama.
To stop the republicans, Hillary is it!!!!

Kelly, Indianapolis, IN   December 31st, 2007 9:11 am ET

Joe, you are so right. I have been saying all along that the only way I see the Dems losing is if HRC gets the nomination. She will rally the Republicans like nothing else could.

I know at least three strong Republicans who want to vote for Obama! They may not agree with him on every issue, but they recognize his ability to unite and inspire.

Go Obama!

concernediowan   December 31st, 2007 8:58 am ET

I do know that I will not vote for Huckabee. I live in a city that is deeply affected by illegal immigration. Huckabee has been a supporter of illegal immigrants, in-state tuition, touchback policy?, and more. He recently changed his immigration stance to a tougher platform, which makes me trust him even less.

K Wilkinson Texas   December 31st, 2007 8:10 am ET

I just read another article on CNN about Huckabee calling Romney dishonest. I had to laugh. Huckabee is SO dishonest it makes my skin crawl! He has such a bad record of political policies, ethics violations, and bigotry towards other religions that the only think he can do to battle Mitt Romney is scream,"Romney's attacking me, he's dishonest, and my personal favorite…I don't like his religion"!

News Flash–Huckabee doesn't like anybody's religion unless it closely matches his own. He as offended Catholics and Mormons all over the country. That is nearly 100 million people! He is the most divisive candidate in the race.

Huckabee also made the comment in the article that if Mitt won the GOP nomination that he would not support him. Again I laugh, how many millions will not support Huckabee because of his bigotry? The only reason Huckabee would not support Mitt is because of his religion. He is truly a hateful man not fit to be our president.

Julia   December 31st, 2007 5:44 am ET

Obama is going to win, hands down. He has what it takes to be the change that the country wants to see and needs. Hillary, in my opinion, is rude and stuck-up and doesn't have the kind of personality I would want my President to have. I know a good President isn't based on personality alone, but it makes a difference to me if I can relate to my candidate, and I do to Obama. He is going to win it!

Joe, TX   December 31st, 2007 3:26 am ET

As a lifelong Republican, I'd like Chris in SF and Jaime in AZ to know they've got it all wrong. I'd very much consider voting for Obama or Edwards, but I can guarantee you that if Hillary gets the Democratic nod, I'll work like crazy to make sure her candidacy goes down in flames. I've had enough of these family political dynasties. This country needs a major change, not more of the same entrenched Washington political elite. Democrats, if you want to get Republican votes, give us somebody to vote for!

Howard   December 31st, 2007 3:09 am ET

Hi,

Just heard Bush is beginning a surge of troops into Pakistan during January, under the guise of training the Pakistani Military. Bush/Clinton/Bush/? NO MORE CLINTON/BUSH!!!

Please vote Ron Paul for President to end this administrations insanity

Thank you,
Howard Roth

HKL   December 31st, 2007 3:06 am ET

With the campaign spirits of Obama, Americans are now returning to the touch and truth of nature. Americans have been too long in relying on artificial logics
and idelistic wishes independing of the world cultures.
The world needs to co-exist and survive with mutual repsects from each other. It has been these irrespects and arrogance towards the rest of the world, that has drove the world apart from the good nature of the American people.
With the genuine human nature of the Obama team, and an excellent team of professional executives consisting all kinds of tactical epxerinces can be gatherd to rebuild the American values and international connectivety. American never was dependent on one individual president for all the know how, knowledge and exoertise. It must the the team work of many talented and genuine American.
The major importance is the guindance from the president with direction, spirits, honesty, trust, and genuine human nature….. which migh have been lost in the last eight years of American presidency.
Obama may just reconnect USA with the rest of the world and resolve the trust among human races.
Gid bless USA and Obama. We may be in a better world with Obama leadin America.

Maria   December 31st, 2007 1:23 am ET

There has been so much emphasis on Obama by the media over the youth vote and his famous stars campaigning for him. These two groups do not translate into votes for a caucus/primaries. In the end, Clinton will win. Her voters tend to be middle age and older and these people vote. Her biggest challenge in Iowa is John Edwards, who has been living there for virtually four years.

P. J. Doley   December 31st, 2007 1:16 am ET

Our country has many problems mostly created by George Bush and his appointees:
-We are on a financial treadmill taking the U. S. backwards increasing our National debt and reducing the value of the Dollar.
-We have lost our image with nations overseas and even among allies because of Bush's arrogant and ignorant attiude that led and keeps making the wrong decisions.
-We have ignored the rights and needs of the Islamic people, lining up unilaterally with Israel even when this nation has ignored the rights of the Palestinians for a very long time and killed many innocent people under the premise that there were terrorists.
The U. S. needs Mitt Romney who has proven to be articulate, bright, intelligent, well educated, with the experience of solving the problems mentioned above as an effective Governor and considers all the Americans' short term and long term interests in his decisions.

karnac1   December 31st, 2007 12:37 am ET

Where the remaining 31 percent of the undecided and democratic candidates not being viable will decide it Jan 3

DGnCOSPRINGS   December 30th, 2007 11:56 pm ET

S.positive wasted vote??? I must disagree that may be what the media has lead you to believe. Don't believe the hype. Polls don't equal votes my friend, for that matter neither do celebrity endorsements. So stand up for what you believe, or for the candidate who most closely resembles your beliefs.

[E]very Man who comes among us, and takes up a piece of Land, becomes a Citizen, and by our Constitution has a Voice in Elections, and a share in the Government of the Country.
Benjamin Franklin, 1784

P.s. "Hillary the Republican"??? Just look up Mr. Fox News himself Rupert Murdoch. He threw a fundraiser for Hillary over the summer. "Stop Hillary Express" -Sean Hannity??? Stop the b.s.!!!

nyaunu   December 30th, 2007 10:57 pm ET

Lets not forget that,we are looking for a president to lead the most powerfull nation on earth not one for hollywood.And have got one out there,yes we have,McCain stands tall. Nyaunu Columbus,OH

Seam, Philly, Pa   December 30th, 2007 10:30 pm ET

If Hillary wins the democratic ticket, I am seriously voting Republican for President. I am sick and tired of Bush-Clinton. People need to wake up and vote someone different. Don't let Bill or anyone else scare you into believing Hillary is the most experienced and most ready to be President. The only experience she has is wearing her last name. She's a joke. I beg people to trust something different, and let this country move forward with a new name.

benj   December 30th, 2007 10:09 pm ET

You sure got that right when you said Obama needs to think the media if he wins. Chris Matthews on MSNBC has done nothing but push for Obama for the last three months, yet he calls FOX NEWS bias. He used to be my favorite and now I have no use for him at all. We need Hillary for our president. Women are strong , good leaders and make good decisions. She is the best democrat running.

s.positive   December 30th, 2007 9:52 pm ET

Like it or not, the fact still remains that voting for a candidate with a high negative is a wasted vote pure and simple…

JA   December 30th, 2007 9:46 pm ET

To Aware's above comment.
Come to Iowa and check out how close the race is and how undecided a large percentage of Iowans still are. I know I talk to them daily.
I guess we take the Iowa Caucus seriously. With all the stumping going on in very small communities all over the state so do all of the candidates.

Kevin   December 30th, 2007 9:01 pm ET

Let's not forget the troops in Iraq, as though it appears has been the case for the past few months. Yes, we have the upcoming elections, the unfortunate incident in Pakistan, however at what point are the candidates going to refocus on the troops? Senator Clinton’s health care is essential, Senator Edward’s middle-class will survive and Senator Obama's change will come, but let's tackle a more important issue…end this war and reunite our military families. Oh as far as the Republicans, well they got us into this mess. To the candidate that wants to break this tie in the polls; start talking about bringing our troops home.

Kevin
Columbia, SC

Jaime Scottsdale,AZ   December 30th, 2007 8:54 pm ET

I agree with Chris in SF. Correct me if I am wrong. There are 50 states in this Country not 1 (one) state. Also, I am not that delusional to think that were one state goes, another follows. The last time that did happen, sad to say, was in 1861. We have come a long way since then. Do your research, invest some of your time. It is good to debate these things but don't get side tracked. I have been waiting for this revolution since Kerry's sad defeat in '04. It will take more than his former "side kick" and a "slick talker" to get this great Nation back on its feet, proudly!

HRC in '08

aware   December 30th, 2007 8:34 pm ET

I doubt very much if this race is as close as it seems. More polite Iowans have probably made up their minds than the polls reflect. Hillary is the best Dem. and McCain is the best Repub. Wow! That would be a great race.

Martin Edwin Andersen   December 30th, 2007 8:24 pm ET

Watch Biden. He is poised to surprise.

Kevin   December 30th, 2007 8:21 pm ET

Let's not forget the troops in Iraq, as though it appears has been the case for the past few months. Yes, we have the upcoming elections, the unfortunate incident in Pakistan, however at what point are the candidates going to refocus on the troops? Senator Clinton’s health care is essential, Senator Edward’s middle-class will survive and Senator Obama's change will come, but let's tackle a more important issue…end this war and reunite our military families. Oh as far as the Republicans, well they got us into this mess. To the candidate that wants to break this tie in the polls; start talking about bringing out troops home.

Kevin
Columbia, SC

Ayyub, Richmond, Va   December 30th, 2007 8:13 pm ET

I hope to God Edwards or Obama wins, We can't surivive on Hillary. She's just a Republican calling herself a democrate. Even republicans call her the conservative democratic candidate, watch FOX News.

Jasper   December 30th, 2007 8:10 pm ET

We really ought to be re-thinking this idea of passing leadership esp. the presidency from husband to first lady, father & son etc. Sure it may have happened in our history before, but the founding fathers would never have been big on turning the presidency into a monarchy. If Hill says she got all her experience by watching from the wings then why didn't she put some salt on that falanderer's tail? And why do we all have amnesia to the fact that Bill was impeached ans what kind of role model was that for the Clinton dynasty? If this nonesense keep s up, what's gonna be next Chelsea v. Jenna? Enough already!

"If…bla, bla, blah… i'm your girl…"
-Hillary

America is not the good ship lollypop and she's no Shirley Temple

bobpensacola   December 30th, 2007 8:03 pm ET

I'm an Obama supporter and Vietnam War veteran. I want peace and some semblance of sanity rather than oil wars benifitting Ray Hunt of Hunt Oil with an illegal contract from Kurdistan. I wish the candidates would address how a Foreign Intelligence Policy Advisor and Republican Texas billionaire can get the first oil contract from Iraq which the Parliament said is illegal. Go Obama!!

Bill   December 30th, 2007 8:03 pm ET

If any poll has Obama ahead by one or two points. CNN makes a big deal about it. Stating he is gaining ground and is winning the race. When Hillary or John Edwards are ahead by one or two points, the race is too close to call. Just today on Election 08 on CNN. CNN spent a great deal of time covering the Obama camp touting everything like they were paid by Obama's staff spent a few seconds on Edwards and a little over a minute on Clinton. When such a blantant political advertisement is placed as a news piece on a news network and goes on as long as it did nobody is fooled. I feel the media support of Obama is why Obama did not seek labor support and other outside support. Who needs them when the media will cover your back. We will see what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. If Obama should win I think the first people he should thank is CNN, MSNBC, and other media who really have made his win possible.

Chris, San Francisco   December 30th, 2007 7:56 pm ET

Many Republicans are hoping and praying that Edwards or Obama are the Dems nominee. For with either Edwards or Obama at the head of the ticket, Dems will most definitely loose in 2008, and the country would end up with yet another Republican President. So Dems could be headed for another repeated of seeing Kerry as "unbeatable" to Bush, only to be proven how repeatedly clueless they have been.

JA   December 30th, 2007 7:32 pm ET

I attended Edwards meeting today in Carroll, Iowa. He had his wife Elizabeth in tow who spoke and introduced her husband to the crowd. What a nice seemingly, down-to-Earth, type lady and that message was noticed by all close to her.
Edwards is coming on strong to his the crowds coming to see him. He impressed me more then the last time I saw him about 2 months ago. They seem like a very approachable couple….like the down home never left dispite their great wealth.
Hillary was in town just a few days ago. She on the other hand, seems to distance herself from the crowds.
I relate to Edwards up-bringing and so will most of the Iowans that see and hear him.
What is really crazy is all the people leaving these "town meeting" just days before caucus and we still can't decide who to stand up for on caucus night, even when impressed with what we have just heard. No kidding and we are not stupid people just really a tough decision this year especially within the Democractic Party.
Hope everyone attends caucus this year as it should prove very interesting outcome.

A. Burns   December 30th, 2007 7:31 pm ET

Mike Huckabee Must Be Stopped

Thank goodness Huckabee has finally seen some scrutiny. Although Hillary, Obama, and McCain have never actually run anything (business, etc), inexperience is much better than the experience that Huckabee gained as governor of AK. He had a chance to prove himself, and proved that he is not worthy of the presidency – even by Bush standards.

Huckabee’s only true “appeal” is that he is a Christian. It’s a bit too egotistical to say “Vote for me because I’m better than the others – why am I better? – because I’m Christian.” Well, being a Christian isn’t exactly a qualification – I’m talking to you, Iowa.

Huckabee may sport one hell of a public speaking smile, but he has a dark side. Actually, he has many dark sides. See http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/11/13/huckabee/ for more details. Below are some highlights – or lowlights.

Huckabee tried to force Roby Brock, the host of a public TV show, off the air for critical commentary. Huckabee had to pay $15,000 to settle the suit.

Huckabee compared journalist Max Brantly to Jeffrey Dahmer (in print, even) for publishing articles critical of the governor.

Huckabee has either pardoned or commuted the sentences of over 1000 felons, 12 of which were murderers. One particular rapist (DuMond) claimed to have found Jesus, so Huckabee pressured the parole board to let him out. He raped again, and killed this time. Was Huckabee wearing his minister hat, or his governor hat when he pardoned the rapist who found Jesus?

In 1992, Huckabee paid himself with campaign funds. He was apparently his own “media consultant.” After he became governor in 1996, he accepted tens of thousands in gifts from people – people whom he later appointed to state office!

Huckabee used campaign funds to pay for trips in his own personal plane – and failed to disclose that the plane was his. This guy is a self-dealing maniac.

He tried to claim $70,000 in furnishings provided by a wealthy cotton grower for the private part of the residence as his own, until he learned ethics rules prevented it.

He even took control of the state Republican Party's campaign account — then swore the account had been somebody else's responsibility when it ran afoul of federal election laws.

Huckabee was even SANCTIONED by an ETHICS COMMISSION on at least 5 occasions. In one case, he was saved by the swing vote of a woman who left the chairmanship of the Ethics Commission days later to take a state job. She listed the governor as a reference on the job application.

Huckabee even once sued to overturn the ban on gifts to him.

In early 2007, reporting also prompted the former first lady to decline dozens of place settings of governor's mansion china and Irish crystal that had been purchased with tax-deductible contributions to the Governor's Mansion Association, nominally set up to improve the mansion, not to buy going-away presents for former occupants.

Huckabee even tried to subsidize education for ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.

Huckabee professed opposition to alcohol and gambling, but he allowed passage of legislation that made it easier for restaurants to obtain private-club mixed-drink permits in dry counties. Over the angry objection of the church lobby, he sped final action on a bill to allow video poker at the state's racetracks, an act followed not long afterward by a $10,000 campaign contribution from the owner of the state's biggest race track, at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs.

Huckabee left Arkansas with a bill of more than $40 million for overcharges of the federal government's Medicaid program.

When he left office, Huckabee crushed computer hard drives so nobody could ever get a peek behind the curtain of the Huckabee administration. Apparently, he is not a fan of transparent government.

Huckabee even raised more taxes in 10 years than Clinton did in 12 years as governor for AK (http://www.arkansasleader.com/2007/11/editorialswhos-biggest-tax-raiser.html).

After the school shooting at Westside Middle School near Jonesboro, Arkansas where four little girls and a teacher were killed by two young gunmen, Huckabee decided to CASH IN on the tragedy. He received an advance of $25,000 from a publisher to write “Kids Who Kill.” And no, he did not donate any of the money to the families of the murdered children, or any other fund for that matter.

Now if you want to vote for this guy just because he’s Christian, you’re just plain stupid.

Rob   December 30th, 2007 6:32 pm ET

Quit trying to puff up the hag with these poll pieces.

Les   December 30th, 2007 6:17 pm ET

Mason-Dixon poll is very unreliable, they've made a poll in 2000 a day before election Gore will win the election, they were WRONG. Gore won in popular vote but lost in electoral college.

Tyler in Raleigh, NC   December 30th, 2007 6:15 pm ET

I think that the polls may actually resemble reality this time. It is too close to call in each.

The interesting part of the Democratic caucus is that anyone below 15% has to change their vote in the second round to count. So right now, the top 3 get to stay and the other 23% supporting other candidates are likely to switch.

Who these people vote for will make a huge difference. I think with how polarizing Hillary is, many will go for Edwards or Obama… the question is how many will go to each. Both have a serious chance of winning this one.

Les   December 30th, 2007 6:14 pm ET

It's three way tie right now in Iowa, caucus is a long process. My bet is Hillary and Edwards for first and second. Majority of Iowans going to the caucus are age 45 and up. After New Year, winter break, we can't rely on college students to be there and attend the caucus especially in the middle of winter. Obama's support relies heavily on college students to attend the caucus. If you're a college student, living outside of Iowa, would you fly or drive for hours on icy road to attend a caucus?

When it comes to polls done by different organization, the one I believe more reliable is the one done by ZOGBY.

Romney will be the winner in Iowa.

Andy, New York, New York   December 30th, 2007 5:59 pm ET

I'd say John Edwards and Barack Obama could (emphasis on COULD) be an unbeatable team. In fact, Edwards was recently asked which of the two (Obama or Clinton's) policy positions he resonates with, and he said hands dow, Obama's! That's powerful And he's not the only one who sees something in Obama! So are millions of Americans who are favoring Obama over Hillary despite Hillary have the CLINTON name on her side.

That Hillary has to resort to mentioning Bill as a way to draw public attention to her electability shows that she does not have it takes on her own to make waves. And that is sad, because America wants a President who is an independent thinker and shows us just that! I resent that Hillary sees herself as President and Bill as an advisor, in a sort of role reversal. This makes for a FAMILY party and not a Democratic Party!

Janel, St. Paul, MN   December 30th, 2007 5:58 pm ET

Over the Holidays, I've talked a bit with family and friends about the upcoming election – and the probable candidates for both parties.

Feedback I've received is overwhelming negative towards a Clinton candidacy on the democratic side, with most interest going towards an Obama candidacy. During our discussions, it is apparent that, at least among those I talked with, they are ready for a change from Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton. I'm hoping and praying this will be the outcome.

Admittedly, Senator Clinton is a very knowledgeable person with a great passion for what she believes in. Unfortunately for her, she still represents the "Washington establishment" that we are tired of. Quite honestly, I was surprised when even some "die-hard Democrats" said they just couldn't in good faith vote for her.

On the other hand, Senator Obama offers hope and a change from what has become an untenable situation for our country. Furthermore, looking at all national polls, he is the only Democratic candidate who can win against any of the Republican candidates.

On the Republican side, Senator McCain is most respected and got the most votes, but his position on the war makes some uncomfortable.

Tom Smalley,IOWA   December 30th, 2007 5:47 pm ET

can i vote "present on this blog? HE DID ON OVER 130 VOTES ,why cant he stand for an issue? and then sided for sex addicts on another vote? oh ONE MORE THING ………He needs to pay taxes on that $40 plus million he is taken in …….IT IS INCOME just like a waitres and her tips …………all the politian's need to pay taxes on this type of money as if it is income …………whos lame idea is it not to tax? ……..theres?

K Wilkinson Texas   December 30th, 2007 5:34 pm ET

THIS ONE'S GONNA BE A NAIL BITER!!!

Jeff Spangler, Arlington, VA   December 30th, 2007 5:11 pm ET

Whe it's too close to call, isn't it prudent to go with the one candidate who has consistently beaten all GOP candidates in polls? Why "roll the dice" with "high negatives" or "politics of hope"? Winning is the point.

Daniel, Iowa   December 30th, 2007 4:41 pm ET

All the more reason to support Barack obama. Get out the vote!!

J, CA   December 30th, 2007 4:30 pm ET

Hillary holds a clear lead in the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Iowa poll released today. Interestingly, she still holds the lead after rearrenge the poll data with the second chioces of candidates who has less than 15%, which is important in caucus system.

SCHUHMAN2   December 30th, 2007 4:25 pm ET

RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT !!!!

Ed, NC   December 30th, 2007 4:11 pm ET

PLEASE, let's not send another Clinton or Bush to the White House. They have been there 19 years already. They have had their day. It is time for change with a new face.

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