December 30th, 2007
02:20 PM ET
6 years ago

Poll: New Hampshire primary races neck-and-neck

(CNN) – A new poll suggests that the Democratic and Republican presidential contests both appear to be dead heats - tied at the top with just over a week to go until the New Hampshire primary.

Among likely Republican primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain of Arizona are tied at 30 percent in the American Research Group survey released Sunday. Romney had long been the frontrunner in most surveys of New Hampshire Republicans, but McCain has made a steady climb in the polls in there the past few weeks.

McCain, the early national frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, but he was left for dead by much of the political establishment in August, after a money shortage forced his campaign to trim staff. But times have changed for McCain, thanks in part to positive debate performances and some key major media endorsements in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is in third place among likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, at 11 percent, with Rudy Giuliani two points back. Most other recent polls in the Granite State put the former New York City mayor in third place, in double digits. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas follows with 7 percent, with support for the remaining Republican White House hopefuls all in the lower single digits.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are in a statistical dead heat in the battle for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire, with 31 percent of likely primary voters supporting Clinton and 27 percent backing Obama. But if you take into account the survey’s sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it’s a virtual tie at the top. Clinton had enjoyed a lead in most New Hampshire polls the past few months, but the race has tightened recently, with Obama and Clinton basically tied in some surveys.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place at 21 percent. The remaining Democratic candidates are all in single digits.

The phone survey of 600 likely Democratic primary votes and 600 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire was conducted December 27-29.


–CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser
soundoff (27 Responses)
  1. Carlos Perez

    Not sure if anyone will be reading this "old news" now but it is interesting to see that less than two weeks ago the polls in New Hampshire showed just what was going to happen in New Hampshire– Clinton up by a few percentage points. Now Hilary is getting a lot of mileage out of the perception that she overcame a huge deficit in New Hampshire but in fact, the results matched her longstanding lead in New Hampshire polls. I would be questioning the validity of the post-Iowa poll figures cited by so many pundits. In fact, a couple of days before the NH election I saw a comprehensive list of poll results for NH and I was amazed at how varied they were; some had Obama ahead by several points, as reported in the media, but others showed Clinton on top by several points. The supposed "Obama surge" in NH helped lead to the perception of a "comeback" for Clinton but what if those poll results were flawed and the media had accurately predicted that Clinton would win? Would the win appear as dramatic as the media is portraying the victory? Obama is and has been the underdog for the duraction of the campaign and the fact that he did so well in Iowa and NH is the real story, especially given the Clintons' historic popularity in NH. Let's see a commentator (from CNN or elsewhere) talk about these facts.

    January 9, 2008 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  2. music

    What do you mean ?

    January 30, 2008 04:07 am at 4:07 am |
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