December 30, 2007
Posted: 02:20 PM ET

(CNN) – A new poll suggests that the Democratic and Republican presidential contests both appear to be dead heats — tied at the top with just over a week to go until the New Hampshire primary.

Among likely Republican primary voters, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain of Arizona are tied at 30 percent in the American Research Group survey released Sunday. Romney had long been the frontrunner in most surveys of New Hampshire Republicans, but McCain has made a steady climb in the polls in there the past few weeks.

McCain, the early national frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination, but he was left for dead by much of the political establishment in August, after a money shortage forced his campaign to trim staff. But times have changed for McCain, thanks in part to positive debate performances and some key major media endorsements in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is in third place among likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters, at 11 percent, with Rudy Giuliani two points back. Most other recent polls in the Granite State put the former New York City mayor in third place, in double digits. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas follows with 7 percent, with support for the remaining Republican White House hopefuls all in the lower single digits.

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York and Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are in a statistical dead heat in the battle for the Democratic nomination in New Hampshire, with 31 percent of likely primary voters supporting Clinton and 27 percent backing Obama. But if you take into account the survey’s sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, it’s a virtual tie at the top. Clinton had enjoyed a lead in most New Hampshire polls the past few months, but the race has tightened recently, with Obama and Clinton basically tied in some surveys.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is in third place at 21 percent. The remaining Democratic candidates are all in single digits.

The phone survey of 600 likely Democratic primary votes and 600 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire was conducted December 27-29.


–CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

Filed under: Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • John Edwards • John McCain • Mike Huckabee • Mitt Romney • New Hampshire • Ron Paul • Rudy Giuliani


music   January 30th, 2008 4:07 am ET

What do you mean ?

Carlos Perez   January 9th, 2008 12:30 pm ET

Not sure if anyone will be reading this "old news" now but it is interesting to see that less than two weeks ago the polls in New Hampshire showed just what was going to happen in New Hampshire– Clinton up by a few percentage points. Now Hilary is getting a lot of mileage out of the perception that she overcame a huge deficit in New Hampshire but in fact, the results matched her longstanding lead in New Hampshire polls. I would be questioning the validity of the post-Iowa poll figures cited by so many pundits. In fact, a couple of days before the NH election I saw a comprehensive list of poll results for NH and I was amazed at how varied they were; some had Obama ahead by several points, as reported in the media, but others showed Clinton on top by several points. The supposed "Obama surge" in NH helped lead to the perception of a "comeback" for Clinton but what if those poll results were flawed and the media had accurately predicted that Clinton would win? Would the win appear as dramatic as the media is portraying the victory? Obama is and has been the underdog for the duraction of the campaign and the fact that he did so well in Iowa and NH is the real story, especially given the Clintons' historic popularity in NH. Let's see a commentator (from CNN or elsewhere) talk about these facts.

cliftnote   January 7th, 2008 5:34 pm ET

On January 17, 1961, during a "Farewell Address To The Nation", Dwight Eisenhower warned the U.S. people about the accumulation of power by the military-industrial complex. To commemorate this profound foresight, I am asking all Ron Paul supporters to donate either your time or money to the Ron Paul Campaign on 1/17/08.

You can accomplish this by going to RonPaul2008.com! May we have a fundraising phenomenon unlike any other.

andyt2008   January 6th, 2008 11:43 am ET

I have to admit I was wrong about Iowa. I thought John Edwards was going to win it. While Edwards is still my choice, one can't help but notice the undecided voters ended up going for Obama. I think this indicates a kind of momentum for the Obama candidacy that will carry him through New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan.

CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT   January 2nd, 2008 6:02 pm ET

Eleanor Roosevelt taught us that sometimes silence is the greatest sin

by Mrs. Lyndon Baines (Ladybird) Johnson
Former First Lady, United States Of America
Women can move beyond the struggle for equal status and for material goods to the challenges and opportunities of citizenship. Quality of goals and the achievement of goals which will mean a better life for all. For me, it was the beginning of seeing how politics can bring tangible results. I always hope that the very best of our people will go into politics, and I am sure that some of our best are women. So, I say: "Don't hold back. Don't be shy. Step forward in every way you can to plan boldly, to speak clearly, to offer the leadership which the world needs. Let us today earnestly resolve to build the true foundation for Eleanor Roosevelt's memory–to pluck out prejudice from our lives, to remove fear and hate where it exists, and to create a world unafraid to work out its destiny in peace. Eleanor Roosevelt has already made her own splendid and incomparable contribution to that foundation. Let us go and do likewise, within the measure of our faith and the limits of our ability. Let Eleanor Roosevelt teach Us all how to turn the arts of compassion into the victories of democracy.Eleanor Roosevelt taught us that sometimes silence is the greatest sin.
“PROGRESS IS CALLING ON YOU TO MAKE NO PAUSE” ACT! The Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women & Politics at Iowa
VOTE CLINTON 2008

Will   January 2nd, 2008 11:04 am ET

Amazing how biased the media is in this election.In a recent Zogby blind poll,Ron Paul beat all of the other candidates.People truly want liberty and a true American to be their Commander in Chief.What happens after that?None of the news stations say a word.Twenty first century journalists have no integrity and are pretty open about it.Truly a sad situation.Let's show them up in New Hampshire.Vote Ron Paul

Obama wrong again   January 1st, 2008 12:28 pm ET

Trying to tap the popular ire over gas prices, Barack Obama told an Iowa crowd “Gas prices have never been higher, and Exxon Mobil’s profits have never been higher.”

He’s wrong on both counts.

Gas prices have soared this year, and so have the profits of Exxon Mobil and other companies. But in saying they’ve “never been higher,” Obama overstates the case.

The price for a gallon of gas peaked in March 1981 at $1.42 a gallon, said Jonathan Cogan, a senior analyst for the Energy Information Administration. Sounds cheap, but factor in inflation and that’s a whopping $3.38 per gallon.

Two days before Obama gave his speech, the Energy Information Administration put the price of gas at $2.98 per gallon — 40 cents less than the inflation-adjusted 1981 price.

Even without inflation, Obama had it wrong. In May 2007, prices hit $3.218 per gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration, which has tracked the average weekly price of gasoline for decades.

PolitiFact will grant that gas prices are uncomfortably high for many of us. Does that mean Exxon Mobil is raking in more dough than ever?

Not at the moment. The company did earn record annual profits of $39.5-billion in 2006. Their record-breaking streak continued through the first quarter of 2007, according to the company’s quarterly statements.

But the company’s second quarter sales fell billions short of Wall Street expectations. Profits declined in the third quarter. For the first nine months of 2007, profit fell 1 percent from the same period in 2006.

The Irving, Texas, company still posted healthy profits of nearly $29-billion, but Obama was wrong. Exxon Mobil’s profits have been higher.

Too bad Obama didn’t give his speech in January 2007. It would have been half true. But this week, he’s just plain wrong.

Troy   January 1st, 2008 6:30 am ET

god dammit. polls are liars.

Edward Winters   December 31st, 2007 8:27 pm ET

It really strikes me as sad that nearly every single endorsement I see here has been derived of fear.

Why does it seem so unusual to be hopeful anymore? Look into Dr Paul's positions and you will find a message of hope, not of despair.

Freedom is what made this country great, why do so many seem willing to trade it away? Do not be afraid people, take your freedom back!

vote for Dr. Paul

Duncan, Richmond, VA   December 31st, 2007 5:36 pm ET

"I agree that Ron Paul had several good ideas, but he's not very experienced internationally,"

Why does he need to be? It is our international involvement which is causing most of the problems we have today. Ron Paul believes in fair trade, but not to get involved in other countries issues. I will vote for Ron Paul because he believes in smaller government, bringing back the troops from Iraq on day one, reduced and fair taxes and to eliminate the Fed Reserve. Without doubt, the biggest crooks in this country.

Ron Paul will do much better than expected because his supportors are very passionate about his views. They will be out voting come snow blizzards, hail or ice..

S.B. Stein E.B. NJ   December 31st, 2007 10:44 am ET

I predict that Ron Paul will not make the top three in either Iowa or New Hampshire because people who support him won't have the energy to go to the polls in enough numbers to make a difference. I doubt that Dennis Kucinich, Duncan Hunter, Mike Gravel, Fred Thompson, Chris Dodd or Joe Biden will get enough mommentum to continue much past South Carolina (the next primary I believe).

To Sheila2000,
You are the first person that I have seen move from Ron Paul to Joe Biden. I have to say that is a great step. I would worry about American foreign policy under Ron Paul. He might have some things people want to hear on the domestic front, but the people should know that they are not realistic.

j-daddy   December 31st, 2007 9:19 am ET

John Edwards is the only candidate in the Democratic field capable of winning the general election in November. Hillary is just too devisive, and the currently fractured Republican Party will unite in their hatred of her if she is the nominee.

Luckily for us, not only is Edwards the most electable candidate, he seems to be the candidate most likely to change things in Washington. We need universal helathcare in America, a living wage, strong unions, and someone who will stand up to "Big Oil" instead of just taking their money. Edwards will do all of those things and put America back on track.

Cody Harding   December 31st, 2007 8:08 am ET

To every 'Paulitical' zombie:

Paul will Lose. And America will be better for it. I would rather have Guiliani, who currently is acting like McCarthy revived, than for the maniac who has voted himself in as the president of the internet. The only thing I'm worried about are all those irate, disillusioned fans who think going to a Gold Standard will actually help the economy.

As for the poll question, I was probably done by CNN or a close affiliate. They usually take the time to list who hosts the poll, so the omission is a strange thing to note. Just remember that we cannot be sure of anything until the event is done. So, if you truly want your candidate to serve this union, you had better follow through and do your duty when the day comes.

I just hope you use your head when you do so.

Allen   December 31st, 2007 7:56 am ET

I predict Ron Paul will do much better than the polls say. Polls dont check cell phones. Polls only check likely republican voters, a lot of Ron Paul supporters have never even voted before. Remember 70% of the american people are opposed to this war and Ron Paul is the only republican who will stop the war now.

Dina   December 31st, 2007 7:45 am ET

It's time for a change. Barack Obama!!

teddy orlando fl   December 31st, 2007 5:40 am ET

If you vote for Hillary you are voting for a bleak future its that simple.

she does not want to be president to aid americans…….

she wants to be president to aid her on ambitions

on the other hand Obama wants to serve the people –

are you HRC supporters that blind?????????????

Obama 08

Amanda Tanner   December 31st, 2007 1:58 am ET

Romney doesn't need endorsements from corrupt political dealmakers and purchased newspaper editors…he just needs votes from people who support improving our nation, our living standards, our schools, our national security, our government, our image abroad!

Romney 2008-2016 !!

Glad Romney is sharing the results of research with us….the Romney ads are factual ads.

I appreciate McCain's service to our nation, but he is not an agent for changing a system HE HAS BEEN A PART OF FOR SO MANY YEARS!

Romney will bring change, efficiency and respect to the oval office!

Joojo   December 31st, 2007 12:15 am ET

Dead on aware. Hillary is the way to go in 2008!

sheila2000   December 31st, 2007 12:15 am ET

I studied up on Dr Paul, but decided that Joe Biden was a better choice…. Senator Biden has the experience to run the Oval Office from the moment he is sworn in as President…. I agree that Ron Paul had several good ideas, but he's not very experienced internationally, as Biden is, and I didn't agree with him on many issues. Hillary can't decide if she did or did not help BIll when he was President.

I ask the people of Iowa to give us a chance to vote for someone other than the so-called Top 3….. If you like what Senator Biden has told you in his many visits with the people of Iowa, then please…. support him on the 3rd…..

Obama and Clinton will still be in this race … they each have plenty of money…. but Biden gets no free media , as they do….. The Media should be forced to cover all of the candidates, not just the ones with the biggest advertising budgets to spend ,…..(. for Buying ads in the Media. )

The 1st debates were not fair in the amount or the quality of questions asked of the so-called 2nd tier candidates. The Media is what made the Top 3 appear to be ahead, and people could throw dice to choose their candidate, with as much time as they spend learning about the candidates…. The media runs it as a popularity contest.

Please… consider who will do the best job, as President of all of the people of the United States… Who will bring us together, not tear us apart…. Joe Biden is my choice…

NY Democrat   December 31st, 2007 12:02 am ET

I was in Derry, New Hampshire last weekend visiting relatives, and I took the opportunity to count lawn signs. Among Democratic candidates, there were nearly two dozen for Barack Obama, three for John Edwards and only one for Hillary Clinton. Totally unscientific, but interesting nonetheless.

Che   December 30th, 2007 11:48 pm ET

Barack Obama is the only Candidate deserves this place President of US.. sincerity….Honesty….truth…..mercy……understand each person child , adult , elder……..

andyt2008   December 30th, 2007 11:24 pm ET

"Your comment is awaiting moderation". Umm, that kind of sounds like "being reviewed for appropriateness", which kind of sounds like "is in the censor's in-box"

andyt2008   December 30th, 2007 11:02 pm ET

John Edwards will be the leading candidate emerging from the Iowa caucuses.
When he planned his 2008 campaign he figured half the folks wouldn't vote for Hillary, but he didn't figure on Obama. So it's been a struggle. But he's clearly on the right track; anti-corporate and anti-war, and his policy papers have been the best on health care and trade policies.

His political strategy has been sound, too; paying a lot of attention to the less populous districts in the western part of the state. Another part of his strategy is to be everybody's second choice. If you're an Iowa caucus goer, and your candidate doesn't have the support of 15% of the people who show up, you can switch to another candidate or go home. If Edwards gets 65% of the 15% who support second tier candidates (can't get over the 15% threshhold) those additions would add up to 10% of caucusers to his column. Nice guys don't always finish last.

While Hill and Barack were trying to recover their lost momentum in Iowa this week-end, Mr. Edwards was campaigning in New Hampshire, knowing that his win in Iowa will make him a strong contender in the Granite State.

aware   December 30th, 2007 9:34 pm ET

Polls are meaningless other than to occupy the media! Hopefully the people of Iowa will vote with their heads and their hearts – and vote for Hillary!

Louis Nardozi   December 30th, 2007 9:08 pm ET

The dollar slid across the board on Friday as data showing a 9 percent decline in sales of new U.S. homes last month heightened concern about the economy, putting the greenback on track for its worst week in more than a year.
The housing report, which was weaker than economists had expected, also bolstered the case for more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2008. Earlier this week, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed a record decline in U.S. home prices in October.

This is what's happening to YOUR house. All the 'money' and 'equity' you though you had saved – eliminated! The equtiy through falling house prices – and the money because we are DEBASING OUR CURRENCY. That low fed rate you're reading about gets created by printing money and lending it to people. With more money, the money YOU have is worth LESS. So your money is worth less and your property is worth less – where can you turn to keep ahead of inflation? I think you BETTER turn to Dr. Paul. He's the ONLY one running that has a HOPE of being able to deal with this.

Mark Twine   December 30th, 2007 8:08 pm ET

'A' new servey? By whom? How do they determin a 'likely' Republican or Democrat?

Ron Paul 2008

Freedom.

VOTE FOR AMERICA 2008   December 30th, 2007 7:38 pm ET

“John McCain and Hillary Clinton both picked up primary endorsements from New Hampshire’s Concord Monitor this weekend.
The Monitor’s editorial board said Hillary Clinton got their backing because her “unique combination of smarts, experience and toughness makes her the best choice to win the November election and truly get things done.”
“Clinton's ambitious to-do list for her first few weeks in office gives us confidence that her priorities are right and that she would act swiftly to make a positive difference,” the board wrote in an excerpt of its Sunday editorial posted on the paper’s Web site Saturday.” (as reported by CNN)

Comments have been closed for this article

subscribe RSS Icon
About The Ticker

The latest political news from CNN's Best Political Team, with campaign coverage, 24-7. Sign up for our twice daily Ticker emails. Got a news tip or feedback? For complete political coverage, bookmark CNNPolitics.com.

CNN=Politics Screensaver

CNN=Politics ScreensaverTap into the power of The Situation Room. Download this powerful new tool that keeps you posted on the latest political news from the campaign trail.
Download (4.1 MB, PC only)

Follow us on Twitter

CNN on TwitterGet Ticker updates the moment they appear online via the Web, SMS, or instant messages.
Follow politicalticker

Categories
CNN Comment Policy: CNN encourages you to add a comment to this discussion. You may not post any unlawful, threatening, defamatory, obscene, pornographic or other material that would violate the law. All comments should be relevant to the topic and remain respectful of other authors and commenters. You are solely responsible for your own comments, the consequences of posting those comments, and the consequences of any reliance by you on the comments of others. By submitting your comment, you hereby give CNN the right, but not the obligation, to post, air, edit, exhibit, telecast, cablecast, webcast, re-use, publish, reproduce, use, license, print, distribute or otherwise use your comment(s) and accompanying personal identifying and other information you provide via all forms of media now known or hereafter devised, worldwide, in perpetuity. CNN Privacy Statement.
Home  |  World  |  U.S.  |  Politics  |  Entertainment  |  Health  |  Tech  |  Travel  |  Living  |  Business  |  Sports  |  Time.com
Podcasts  |  Blogs  |  CNN Mobile  |  Preferences |  Email Alerts  |  CNN Radio  |  CNN Shop  |  Site Map
© 2008 Cable News Network LP, LLLP. A Time Warner Company. All Rights Reserved.
Powered by WordPress.com VIP