CNN is projecting this split of Iowa's 45 Democratic delegates, based on tonight's results:
Barack Obama: 16, Hillary Clinton: 15, John Edwards: 14
I am formerly from Iowa and it is not about who necessarily wins but the percentages...which is why the delegates to the IA State Convention will be split almost evenly (Obama, Edwards and Clinton pretty much split all the votes/delegates)...and then of course, what really matters is who has the most national delegate votes, including those of the super delegates...and Hilary is way ahead of all of them so for in total votes for these since more super delegates have pledged in her favor. To learn more just do a web search on super delegates and information should come up.
Voter turnout is rarely ever that high to begin with in any state.
To answer a couple of questions above:
Seth and Michiel: I don't know the mechanics, but I'd guess the same way that Bush lost the popular election in 2000, but won a majority in the electoral college. It's probably based on precincts, and Clinton won more–Edwards won fewer but by more votes.
Dan: I heard the Dems had 200k, which is much better than in 2004 where they only had 125K. The trouble is that this isn't a primary, it's a caucus, and the amount of effort it takes (2-4 hours, from what I heard) is more than many people will commit to. Plus, you have to be willing to state your vote in public–it's not secret like voting. So you have to be someone who likes to make their opinions public to your friends and neighbors.
A lot of folk will be mislead into thinking that 200,000 people in Iowa is going to decide who the next president will be but nothing can be further from the truth. My crystal ball tells me that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the U.S.A. and will cause WWIII which will be culminated in 2011 on or about October 19 to 21. Anyway you spin it, the world and all its people are in deep ____!
Hillary has 156 of 800 superdelagates nationwide some from.
Obama has 50 of 800Superdeligates nationwide non from Iowa.
Edwars has 33 of 800 Superdeligates nationwide none from Iowa.
This is why Hillary has 1 more delagate in the estamate than Obama and Edwards.
The Democratic superdelgates make up 800 of the 2025 delagate votes in
the National Primary held in Colorado.
Hope this helps.
It's just the first step in the process and in the end the main individuals who will be running for president will be between 2 New Yorkers who knows how to play the games. So everyone just relaxed and enjoy the series with commericals.
Why did Hillary only get one delegate less than Obama?
Because she got enough votes where it mattered.
Just another way of showing that the election process is flawed in the US (as it pretty much work the same way on the national level).
Now, I support HRC, but I think that the delegate form is outdated, and that a candidate should be elected on a majority vote.
If no candidate recieve 50.01% or more in the first round, it needs to go on until one candidate have more than 50% of the total vote, eliminating the candidate with the least amount of votes each round until only one remains, that candidate should be the one who assume the party nomination/general election.
Pretty much the same thing happened back in 2000, Al Gore got about 500.000 more votes than did Bush Jr nationally, however Bush Jr won the election, because he got the votes where it counted, based on the delegate system used in the US.
All of the leading democrats have been very divisive in their national politics and are damaged goods as national leaders of the country. They do not have kind words about us and do not care about us. This is also true of many of the republicans as well. Through trickery they have attempted to prevent the US military from winning in Iraq. They do not represent the people just a wing of their party which is very vocal but not representative of the people.
Give me a national leader who tells it like it is. I do hope that they will not be lawyers as my opinion of lawyers is as low as it gets. McCain seems to be a man of the people who has suffered for the people and he also seems to care about the people.
Hillary did not lose to Edwards by a full %. Edwards won 29.8% in iowa and Hillary won 29.3%. Cnn rounded up for Edwards and down for Hillary, as any statistician would have done or mathematician,let's get that straight first. Edwards can have bragging rights to be in second, but he placed second by .5% of a point. As for the state delegates versus national delegates, that has been spoken about already.
Democratic party leaders in Iowa estimated that around 236,000 folks showed up to caucus, far and away a record for either party. The Democrats' previous record was in 2004, when 125,000 or so showed up, and the Republicans set their record in 1980 with about 115,000 caucus-goers. The Democratic total for tonight was almost as high as these two records combined.
Iowans in my estimation are much more politically astute than most other Americans, and a caucus is much more demanding than a primary. Asking people to caucus means asking them to come out for a few HOURS on a work night to declare publicly – not privately, as in a primary – their preferred candidates. They discuss, deliberate, and change their minds, often having to go to second choices where their candidates are weak.
In primaries and caucuses the national trend is that only the most liberal democrats vote and only the most conservative republicans vote. This year, in iowa, The Democrats actually increased their turnout by about 75,000 voters. This, in large part, due to the work of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama to bring new voters out. Republicans actually didn't increase the number of their caucus goers,likely due to the frustration republicans are feeling with their party in general, i.e., the war in iraq, the economy, George Bush, the scandals with Senators Vitter, Craig, Stevens, Lott,etc. this trend will continue across the country-the number of primary voters will be lower than general election voters. However, Obama and Hillary's historic campaign's are capable of increasing voter turnout to some extent. We can see if this is a trend if it continues in Wyoming this weekend, New Hampshire next week, then S. Carolina.
So Edwards comes out of Iowa with only 2 fewer delegates than to top vote getter. Not too bad and a solid jumping off point for other primaries such as South Carolina where he might do even better.
In answer to Dan Lynch's question: The number of registered Democrats in Iowa is about 1.8M. If the projections are correct, just over 400k of them participated in either the Dem or GOP caucus tonight. So about a 25% turnout, which for a primary/caucus is pretty decent turnout.
Remember, the caucus is not like a primary where one may vote at any time of the day and just be done with it. Iowa voters had to show up at a predesignated location for their precinct no later than 7pm for a process that takes up to 2 hours. With the cold weather, the number of folks who don't pay much attention to primary politics, night-shift workers, and people who don't want to stand in a crowded room with strangers for 2 hours - the turnout was pretty excellent.
Last night was the first time I actually saw the inside of how a Caucus works and this was the stupidest thing I have ever seen. Groups of people standing in corners and then raising their hand and calling off numbers to count their vote. Have a Primary like a normal state!
It seems that Obama's win netted him 1 extra delegate than Hillary. What's all the fuss over one delegate? CNN and its biased pundits didn't mention that fact. Edwards is the big winner of the three because he goes to N.H. with momentum. Hillary has the most super delegates and she is still winning nationally. Obama had his best day and what did he gain, 1 state delegate. HE SPENT A LOT OF MONEY FOR 1 DELEHATE. Well, king for a day.
One year in the Senate makes you prepared to be President? In the beginning, HIllary was not even supposed to have a chance in Iowa. Then after the polls started coming in she was ahead by a wide margin. That must have shook up and angered the media because they began an all out attack against her while practically showering praise on Obama. The media wants a raise and I am fully convinced they had a hand in Obama's win last night in Iowa. What good would it be to tune in the various political programs if it was a cake walk for Hillary. The media has done their best to bring her down, even the more progressive side. So thanks to them, I feel like the more qualified candidate lost last night, pleaseing the media and giving them what they believe to be a much more interesting and exciting story to follow and report.
When the dust settles and the emotion dies down, all I'm left with from Obama is HOPE and CHANGE and more HOPE and "we'll remember this day as the beginning of HOPE and CHANGE". ONE COUNTRY! ONE NATION! UNITED! THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!
Geez, people. Americans just keep getting dumber and dumber. They don't want change. They just want inspirational speeches about nothingness.
Just how will we expect him to unite us when some are for the wars while others aren't? How will he unite us when one half wants Universal Healthcare and the other wants privatization? When one side will spend more and tax less and the other will simply spend more and tax more? When one side wants gay marriage and stem cell research and the other doesn't? When one side wants more secure borders and the other wants amnesty and fines for illegal immigrants?
I'm sick of everyone falling for the same old crap. All Americans want is more sunshine blown up their butts. We've all become so shortsighted that we go for the easy emotion of speeches rather than what's right and true or, God forbid, what may require sacrifice.
That's my concern about election. The vote of the people says one thing. The delegate says another thing and does not represent what the people say. The delegates tend to go with insiders, and Hillary has the advantage in this.
I wonder if it's another year of disappointment when the delegates do not go along with the will of the people. Let's hope not.
Listen to all the bitter Hillary supporters. All the sour grapes turning to whine.
If she had won you would be defending the Iowa caucus.
Seems the inevitable candidate isn't so inevitable.
Iowa is so obviously irrelevant, Obama & Huckabee? One thinks he's the second coming of Christ, they other doesn't know who he is or what he stands for. Maybe now, heading into the real contests they will be confronted with real questions on real issues. As we get more into this, commercials with crosses and Oprah and her considrerable weight shouldn't do much good. But then again the whole country does seem to be pretty naive these days. Better wake up America!
It is such a relief to find that the initial elation over Obama's win in the Iowa caucuses boils down to a one national delegate lead over Hillary, and a 2 delegate lead over Edwards. And, Edwards placed second with a half % of a point over Hillary. That's darn close to a tie for second in my book. Whatever, the two most qualified candidates are heading to New Hampshire with a lot of momentum and nearly tied, national delegate-wise, with Obama. Additionally, Reagan, Bush Sr, and Clinton didn't win the Iowa caucuses but went on to become their party's nominees and win the general election. So, all in all, Hillary's, Edwards', and Obama's supporters should all be elated this morning.
For me, it's Clinton and Edwards who have articulated the best strategies for change in America. It seems their voices have not been lost in spite of the frenzy Obama's oratorical skills have created in his audiences, Oprah's influence, and the tremendous amount of money his campaign spent on ads and in saturating tv stations in Iowa.
To Seth and Michiel who are confused about why Hillary comes in with one delegate more than Edwards, read comments from others further down. They explain clearly why Hillary finishes ahead of Edwards even though he had a half of a % point lead over her at the finish of the Iowa caucuses. Listen, with Obama winning 16 national delegates, Hillary 15, and Edwards 14, the race is still wide open. Cross your fingers, all voters who are sick of the status quo and want real change in our country. Hillary's and Edwards' voices of reason, are ringing out loud and clear. They are the real candidates for change, the ones who really know how to get the job done in Washington, who have show up for votes, and will fight everyday for everyone, including the 15 million Americans who will continue to be ineligible for health insurance under Obama's plan. On a host of issues, they have concrete plans that will improve our country's status on the world stage and improve the lives of all Americans across the country.
I wouldn't think obama should be bragging just yet. I would think Iowa was almost a 3 way tie. And remember, Iowa is just the first of the primary season. Super Tuesday will tell the tale. The press acts like obama was the only person who got a vote at all. CNN has really disappointed me. I believe reporters should be unbaised. I know they all have favorites and that is natural but it shouldn't show in their work. Two that I am really disappointed in is Jack Cafferty and Lou Dobbs. These were two of my favorite people on CNN but the way they went after Hillary was terrible. Jack Cafferty complaining that Hillary kept saying "When I am your President" I heard obama say that over and over and ALL of the candidates use that phrase but I guess just Hillary isn't allowed to without criticism. Fox was more fair to Hillary then CNN. Maybe I should start watching Hannity and Combs instead of Cafferty and Dobbs. What a disappointment these two have been.
Come Super Tuesday, Hillary will clean house. Iowa means nothing. In recent time, the only Democrat that won Iowa and went ahead to win the presidency was Jimmy Carter.
I believe that part of the reason that the delegates are split the way they are is because it is a caucus. The rules regarding how things are split are different that it is during a primary. I think it what precincts report and how big the precincts are among other reasons. I DO NOT claim to be an expert on this, but it is the be I can figure since it is a CAUCUS.
I am glad that NJ is a primary state. I like being able to go in and cast my vote in the primary and watch the system work after that.