January 7, 2008
Posted: 06:35 AM ET
![]() Well, here it is – 3 a.m. on the day before the first-in-the-nation primary, as we sweep the cobwebs from our heads and ponder what’s about to happen in the Granite State. I’m being extra careful with my broom today after I idiotically typed 1960 instead of 1952 for the last non-incumbent general election (sleep-deprivation can be REALLY frightening sometimes). My apologies for that – I didn’t even realize what I had written until a few hours later… While all of our upcoming interviews with the candidates and reports from our fine correspondents will delve into the issues, it’s interesting to take a moment here to look at what the polls are telling us and how that might affect the outcome. New Hampshire is fiercely independent, and voters insist what happens elsewhere doesn’t matter much in New England. That said, Barack Obama does appear to have enjoyed a bounce from his decisive victory in Iowa – now leading Hillary Clinton by 10 points. She still enjoys a comfortable advantage in the area of experience, but 67 percent of likely Democratic voters here say what matters most is the ability to bring about change – the same resounding message that Iowa voters sent on Thursday. On the Republican side, John McCain benefits most from experience and has surged in the polls here, more than doubling his numbers from where he was 6 months ago. Will lightning strike twice for McCain in New Hampshire? Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani have traded places in our latest poll – Huckabee does not appear to be in a position to win – even he has said that McCain will probably take it - but a strong showing here could set him up well for South Carolina and Florida, where his support is strong. There’s also another interesting story here – Ron Paul. A growing number of independents in New Hampshire (and they account for about 40 percent of the electorate) say they’ll vote Republican. They account for much of McCain’s increase, but what might that also mean for Ron Paul? He’s currently polling fifth, but a surge of independents could propel him to a good showing here. Makes you wonder why he was excluded from last night’s debate on Fox. The big stories to watch tomorrow night – what happens to Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney? They were the names to beat here, and things are looking (at least according to the polls) a little shaky. Of course, there’s the possibility that the polls are entirely wrong, though New Hampshire is easier to read than Iowa because of the nature of the primary. Another win by Barack Obama could begin to clarify the race on the Democratic side – while a win from McCain could make things even more unpredictable for the Republicans. –CNN American Morning Anchor John Roberts Filed under: New Hampsire
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