February 5, 2008
Posted: February 5th, 2008 05:50 PM ET
Bill Schneider is going over all the exit polls.
NEW YORK (CNN) - There's lots of potential storylines tonight, and our exit polls will shed light on all of them. Here's how the leading four presidential candidates can have good nights: How Hillary Clinton could have a good night: The first place to look for signs of a big Clinton win tonight is the way women voters are breaking. They rallied around the New York senator in New Hampshire, but less so in South Carolina. Will women voters deliver wins for Clinton tonight? Second, look at how the Latino vote splits. Clinton's strong support from Latinos propelled her to victory in Nevada, and she also did well among those voters in Florida - though that primary was meaningless after party sanctions. Look to see who Latinos in California, Arizona, and New Mexico vote for tonight. How Barack Obama could have a good night: If Obama has a great night, young voters will likely play a big part. The Illinois senator has repeatedly proven he overwhelmingly beats Clinton among younger voters. But older voters have continued to count for the majority in the early primaries to date. Will young voters come out strong tonight? Another open question: how much will the Iraq issue play into the results? The issue isn't as important as it once was to voters, but Obama has been stressing his differences with Clinton on the war in recent days. Could Iraq win him more votes? Finally, take a look at independent voters. More than half the Democratic delegates will be chosen in open primaries, where independents can vote. Obama's proven to do well with this group, especially in New Hampshire. If that continues to hold true – and independent voters turn out in huge numbers - it might be Obama’s night. How John McCain could have a good night: If McCain has a great night, he’ll have to win conservative votes. He's continued to lose amongst his party's most conservative base, even while winning primaries - can he win these voters tonight? That answer could well determine how easy it might be for him to unite the Republican Party should he be the nominee. Keep an eye on McCain's two big constituencies - seniors and veterans. Their support propelled him to victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and especially Florida. We'll see how much they deliver for him tonight. And have Republicans gotten over their problem with McCain on immigration? We'll see how much that issue plays a role tonight. How Mitt Romney can have a good night: If Romney is going to garner some surprising wins, the first place to look is evangelical voters. In past primaries, this group has predominately split between Romney and Mike Huckabee. Will they finally rally around the Massachusetts Republican tonight? The economic issue could also prove a winner for Romney. He's been touting his credentials as a business executive. If voters are focused on economic fears – as many polls have indicated - could those concerns make Romney the latest comeback kid? – CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider Filed under: Bill Schneider
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