February 29th, 2008
05:27 PM ET
7 years ago

Poll: Clinton ahead in Ohio, Obama has edge in Texas

ALT TEXT

Clinton has a slight edge in Ohio while the two are statistically tied in Texas (AP Photo).

(CNN) - Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are statistically tied in Texas while the New York Democrat holds a slight lead in Ohio, according to a new poll out Friday of the crucial March 4 primary states.

According to a new poll from Fox News, Clinton holds an 8-point lead in Ohio (46-38 percent), buoyed by demographics that have carried her to victory in previous primaries - white women, seniors, and members of the working class.

Obama has a slight edge in Texas (48-45 percent), but is statically tied with the New York Democrat there given the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error. The poll suggests Clinton's base is holding up in the state, but that support is not enough to overtake Obama's strong advantage among independent and African-American voters.

Factoring in the Fox poll, a CNN analysis of the most recent surveys from Ohio and Texas show Clinton with a 7-point lead in Ohio and Obama up by 4 in Texas.

The new poll comes on the same day both presidential campaigns sought to raise the other's expectations next Tuesday. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Clinton needs to garner decisive wins to chip away at the Illinois senator's significant lead among pledged delegates. But Clinton communications director Howard Wolfson contended that Obama should win all the March 4 contests given that he outspent Clinton nearly 2 to 1 in those states.

– CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney

soundoff (417 Responses)
  1. Marta K

    Until and unless Hillary releases her tax returns and political papers, she's not even a viable candidate.

    February 29, 2008 06:52 pm at 6:52 pm |
  2. Joan

    Obama Makes Gay Ad Buys in Ohio, Texas The Obama campaign is lavishing some of its cash advantage on the LGBT community with targeted ad buys in Ohio and Texas leading up to the critical March 4 primaries in both states (Rhode Island and Vermont also vote that day). According to Obama LGBT steering committee member Eric Stern, the campaign has just completed an ad buy with #### newspapers in the four largest LGBT markets of those two states - Columbus, Cleveland, Dallas, and Houston. Full-page ads will appear starting this Friday in Outlook Weekly of Columbus, the Gay People's Chronicle of Cleveland, the Dallas Voice, and OutSmart, which is Houston-based. Buying a full-page, four-color ad that appears one time typically costs anywhere between $1,000 and $2,000 in weekly publications

    February 29, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  3. mark reid

    i really think its time for senator Clinton to bid adieu to the desire for the presedency and go serve coffee for Bill.

    February 29, 2008 06:53 pm at 6:53 pm |
  4. Joan

    The people voting for Mr. Obama are mainly: (1) republicans who are intentionally throwing a monkey wrench into the works by crossing over in primaries to vote for the one candidate they know McCain can beat in November (2) young white liberals who want to think that America is no longer a racist nation and (3) blacks who have been caught up in a religious fervor for a black messiah. Unfortunately, if Mr. Obama gets the nomination, the democrats will lose all fifty states to McCain and there won't be any talk about another black person on any presidential ticket in the future. Whites are not about to turn this nation over to be run by a black person, no matter who he or she is (even Condi Rice, Colin Powell or Uncle Clarence Thomas could not be elected president). Democrats had better get behind Hillary before it's too late or we will see this nation go so far backward it will make your head spin. WAKE UP!!!!

    February 29, 2008 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  5. Carrie

    Yay Hillary! I managed to swayed 14 voters today at the Primary Election @ downtown in Austin. We love you! Continue on. Atleast we know you wouldn't be waving a magic wand in Washington DC expecting a change to magically happen with a sturdy foundation of the same "old politics."

    And yes, I agree, Democrats need to start honing their weapon because as soon as Hillary or Obama loses, we will see a giant split right down the gap. Swing voters going to Mc.Cain for obvious reasons. The National Democratic Party has to prepare themselves because it will get ugly if this Primary Election is ever over hopefully before August.

    Hillary '08

    February 29, 2008 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  6. Marta K

    Why do half the posts keep disappearing from these blogs AFTER they've already been posted?

    February 29, 2008 06:55 pm at 6:55 pm |
  7. Jim

    Hillary keeps changing the rules of the game. Now she want's to sue over Texas and because Obama has more money, he should win big. Come on Hillary, I would would love to recapture the hope of the 60's while you were for Goldwater. Geez..

    Jim

    February 29, 2008 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  8. Boomer

    If Hillary wins the nomination, McCain wins the election. Every poll and pundit will tell you that. Wake up people! Obama is the only way.

    February 29, 2008 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  9. JO

    Didn't like my comment? You did not print it !!

    McCain for President !!

    February 29, 2008 06:56 pm at 6:56 pm |
  10. Denver

    What foreign policy experience does Hillary have????
    NONE

    Her husband was president NOT Hillary...

    When she was first lady she would NOT have been allowed in those meetings.

    The name "Clinton" means corruption and scandle.

    If by chance she becomes the democratic nomination, I will have to vote McCain.

    February 29, 2008 06:57 pm at 6:57 pm |
  11. Bill

    Hillary will suspend her campaign next Wednesday.

    February 29, 2008 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  12. Shawn

    Go Hillary!!! She is the best candidate... on all issues!

    February 29, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  13. Mac_FL

    I'm still waiting for one of Hillary's cheerleaders to list in detail all of her so-called experience. This is the biggest scam of her campaign. She and Barak have BOTH been Senators on the national scene. Her former experience as the wife of a President is NOT political experience nor has she ever served in the military....meanwhile Barak served politically in his own home state (not as a carpet bagger to another state) and spent years prior as a community leader and lawyer, I believe. Additionally, in case anyone is interested, most Presidents were former Governors with NO national or foreign policy experience AND our current (idiot) President had never even left the country before being elected as President.

    February 29, 2008 06:59 pm at 6:59 pm |
  14. Latinos for Hillary all the way

    We Hispanics love to support a person who has experience over fake charm..YOU ARE THE BEST HILLARY.

    February 29, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  15. Sue

    How can Hillary sleep at night?

    How can you Hillary supporters sleep at night?

    First she voted for war without reading the report. It's WAR...What did she expect would happen?

    Then she votes to NOT support the war?? So, our people get no new armor, no better weapons, no better equipment, no better security.

    First she puts them to war then not support them?

    How can she sleep at night? She's killing them !

    February 29, 2008 07:00 pm at 7:00 pm |
  16. Mike

    People of Ohio you need to think logically.

    Hillary admits that she was a co-president when Bill was in office. Do you think she really cared about you losing your jobs back then, or was she more concerned about having the Clinton name on the NAFTA bill. Now she says she is going to change that, and you all clap your hands and holler hooray. Duuhhh. Are you all so desperate that you can not see that she will say anything for her own personal gain.

    What are you going to do if she gets elected and then gives you some lame excuse for not bringing employment back to your state.

    February 29, 2008 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  17. pritesh

    Hillary all the way!!!!!

    OBAMA IS ALL WORDS. TALK DOESNT REFLECT ACTION.........

    February 29, 2008 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  18. DAVID SWANN

    I DO THINK THAT OBAMA CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE LIVES OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE..MAY GOD HELP US ALL

    February 29, 2008 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  19. Jenny

    It is over for you, Hellary. Let's give a warm welcome to OUR NEW U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA!!! WE LOVE YOU, BARACK!!!

    February 29, 2008 07:01 pm at 7:01 pm |
  20. Jay from San Diego

    Can everyone shut up about Florida and Michigan?

    Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, and Hillary only won 55% of the vote agenist nobody, to 45% UNCOMMITED, does obama get the uncommited since his name wasn't on the ballot? and where does the other delagates go if he doesn't get them? 45% of Michigan odviously didnt wan't Hillary as our next president.

    I believe they will count Florida because it is not going to make a difference. John Kerry is going to endorse Obama, and throw his delagates his way. which roughly makes florida a tie....CHeck mate Everyone from florida has there vcoice heard, and it still doesn't effect the outcome of the election.

    February 29, 2008 07:02 pm at 7:02 pm |
  21. lee, los angeles, ca

    Hillary's supporters are mostly singing the typical Democrat song about how the average American is stupid and easily swayed by personality and style, and how the media is biased against their candidate. We heard the same sad song in 2000 and 2004 when their candidates squandered opportunities. in 2008, Hillary has done what Gore and Kerry did before her– mismanaged the campaign so that huge early leads disappeared. HIllary supporters don't want to admit it, but Obama is doing so well because Obama and his team are running a brilliant campaign. Obama is clearly doing a better job of picking advisors than Hillary, and this makes me think he'd do a better job with a cabinet, vp, chief of staff, etc, than Clinton. Not to mention that Hillary has pissed me off for 8 years, standing by her compulsively philandering man rather than divorcing him as any reasonable woman would. I don't want a spineless woman in the White House, and keeping Bill around shows Hillary to be willing to put up with too, too much.

    February 29, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  22. Patrick

    Obama will re-unite the electorate- Hillary will just polarize the country in the opposite direction that King George has taken us. It's time for a change! A fresh face. And Clinton cannot win in November. Think people.

    February 29, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  23. Nowhere Man

    I will credit this analysis to another "blogger", but it seems very astute. The Clintonistas are not being honest that Obama needs to do well in Ohio and Texas and must sweep the states next Tuesday. The unknown is whether the Clintonistas will try to cheat and seat the Floriduh and Michigan delegates. If they do, there will be a bloodbath in the party!

    February 27th, 2008 8:08 pm ET

    This is over already. Just look at the math.

    Obama is up by 152 pledged delegates. Best case scenario for her in March: She wins Ohio by 15 picking up +25 delegates, wins Texas by 3 points, loses the Texas Caucus by 8 points and nets 3 delegates out of Tx. Wins Rhode Island big (say, by 15), but loses Vermont by 25, for a total out of Tx, RI, and VT combined of net 0 delegates. We'll give her +2 just to be nice about it. So she comes out of 3/4 down 125 pledged delegates. Then, on 3/8, she loses the Wyoming Caucus at least 60/40, and on 3/11 she loses Mississippi by 62/38. Net for these two contests, a minimum of +7 for Obama. So, at the end of March, the score is Obama +132 pledged delegates.

    In April, let's say she wins HUGE in Pennsylvania, say +32 delegates (just to make the math easy). That puts her down 100 pledged delegates with just 9 contests left to go. Of those, 4 favor Obama heavily. South Dakota and Montana are caucuses in Montain west states- he should beat her easily there, let's say + 6 net delegates from the pair. Oregon is a crunchy progressive state (the Vermont of the west). He will win there by 5 more delegates. And North Carolina, the biggest state left after Penn, with over 100 delegates. He leads currently by 18 in Survey USA's poll. Let's give him a 10 point win there, good for +10 more delegates.

    That means that, in order to catch up on pledged delegates, she would have to win the remaining 5 contests by 121 delegates. Those 5 are: Indiana (blue coller, but borders Illinois and has lots of blacks in Indianapolis and Gary), Kentucky (leans her direction, but blacks make up a large portion of the Dem electorate), West Virginia (leans her way), Puerto Rico, and Guam with 3 delegates.

    The math is impossible unless he says or does something to TOTALLY fracture his original base coalition of the young, high-income progressive whites (who have never liked Hillary), and blacks.
    Note: This is the BEST scenario I can see for her barring a singularly stupid collapse-inducing moment for Obama. And under the BEST CASE scenario I could imagine, she ends up trailing in pledged delegates by about 80-100. That means she's got to get roughly 450 out of 800 Superdelegates to overturn the will of the people. Or, in other words, Obama (who already has more than 180 committed Superdelegates) would only need a bit more than 350 total to win.
    The math is impossible without a blowout win in Texas. Which (speaking as a Texan) ain't going to happen. One big, unreported reason: All projections on the black vote down here are based on the '00 census or the '04 primary. Those were Pre-Katrina events. We have a lot more blacks in Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio than we used to just 4 years ago.

    Comparison info: At my polling place in Dallas (area is 50% black, 30% hispanic, 20% white), during the 12 days of early voting in the '04 presidential primary there were a total of 520 or so Democratic ballots cast during 13 days of early voting. Through the first 7 days this time around the number is about 1600, with 5 days remaining (and the polls are open much longer hours the last 5 days). We're talking about a 5-fold increase in early votes, when all is said and done, in a heavily pro-Obama area.

    And the Caucus is shaping up like a slaughter for Obama as well.
    Kiss Hillary good night. She's about to be put to bed.

    Obama '08!

    February 29, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  24. Jay from San Diego

    I meant john edwards in my last comment

    February 29, 2008 07:03 pm at 7:03 pm |
  25. Ito, Yokosuka Japan

    Uh Cathy,

    Obama is more of a Democrat that Hillary by far. The fact the you just said Obama is not a true democrat shoes you don't know much about what it means to be a democrat.

    HRC is more like the Republican's you dislike.

    The jokes on you, I guess...hehe...

    But then so many HRC supporters have been duped into thinking she has experience. She may be ready on day one, but wouldn't you rather have a person who is right on day one.

    She may be ready to answer the phone at 3 AM, but if you can't make the right decisions, it doesn't matter what time you answer the phone.

    Truth is Hillary's universal healthcare will never happen and if you think it will, you are lying to yourself and you are living in a fairytale.

    HRC has too many political debts to pay to be an effective agent for change. A vote for her is not a vote for change, but a vote for more of the same stuff we've had to endure for the past 16 years...lies, cover ups, half truth's, blame-gaming, finger pointing, not being responsible (i.e. taking credit for the good things and crediting the vast right wing conspiracy for all the bad that happens).

    HRC is a fraud, simple as that.

    February 29, 2008 07:04 pm at 7:04 pm |
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