May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Scott, Norfok, VA

    As a Hillary supporter, looks like my vote will go to McCain, if Obama gets in. Would rather have 4 more years of Bush like policy then have a president that wants to sit down and talk with terrorist. The only thing terrorist understand is force.

    May 20, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  2. All that glitters is not gold

    Kiddies fell for a shiny new toy. American Idol for President. Do you use one of his studdering, halting interviews as a ring tone? Everyone not backing him gets attacked and accused of being stupid W-T, racist etc. Anyone stating they will write in Clinton or vote McCain is called posers who are not really democrates. Well kiddies, believe what you will, follow your shiny star and learn the hard way came November. DNC corrupt, deserve to lose, again. Just couldn't stand the thought of a woman president, could you. All the undermining, back stabbing, backroom deals and heavy handed tactics, have done nothing but cost you yet another election.

    May 20, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  3. Thomas

    This is a good sign that the democrats will come together and rally
    behind the candidate that won the primary fair and square. I believe
    that the republicans who are disguised as democrats who will vote for
    McCain are the negative bloggers who have been constantly trying to
    divide democrats. No true democrat will vote for the other team just
    because their player didn't win.

    Democrats 08!

    May 20, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  4. Venus

    The worst Hillary acts – the better for Obama!

    May 20, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  5. Ed

    Great News BUT let's not get too confortable or cocky, there's a lot of work to still be done.
    YES WE CAN

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  6. Pat in Cali

    This is election is bigger than gender. This country needs to change. We need to pull together.

    All of you who will abandon the Democratic party if your candidate is not selected are probably responsible for the 2nd Bush term. So a 3rd Bush term will do you just fine. But...when you lose your house, your job, your son or daughter in a war that was base on a lie, you only have yourself to blame.

    Obama/Clinton... Obama/anybody...just no 3rd Bush term.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  7. Fred

    Matthews and Olberman might as well wear Obama T-shirts during their respective shows. I no longer watch MSNBC and rarely watch NBC. For balance, I watch CNN and FOX.
    I'll wait to read the typical hateful and childish responses to this story that the Obamites are sure to post, as they always do. Maybe when mommy and daddy are no longer paying the bills, they will move out into the real world and learn some respect.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  8. Bitter Tommy Hussein in St. Louis

    I never got a chance to say this in other recent threads, but it is a fallacy to suggest that the ability of a candidate to win certain states in the primary campaign against an opponent in the same party, is somehow an indication of which states that candidate will win or lose in the general election against the other party's nominee. Obama vs. McCain is a completely different ballgame than Obama vs. Hillary, with a much wider, and more independent pool of voters. There are just too many other variables and counterexamples.

    Counterexamples:
    Hillary lost states such as Illinois, D.C., Iowa, Hawaii, Minnesota, and Vermont to Obama, and will lose Oregon. Does that mean they will certainly go red in the fall? No, of course not.
    McCain lost plenty of states to Romney and Huckabee before securing the nomination, including Iowa, Wyoming, Nevada, Maine, Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia, Kansas, and Lousiana. Does that mean they'll go blue for sure, and the Democratic nominee doesn't even have to bother campaigning in those states? Hardly. If the Democratic nominee doesn't bother, then it's a concession to McCain.
    And what are we supposed to expect of states that both parties' nominees lost in the primaries? Or maybe we just wig out because our brains can't handle the conundrum!

    If you're going to apply this argument, you have to apply it equally to all the candidates. And unless you are deliberately ignoring the obvious, you can see that the argument fails when it is carried to its logical conclusion. Sorry, but the "I have 300 electoral votes and he only has 217" claim is a bunch of baloney.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  9. sue

    jmarie wrote, "media has not been s e x i s t ..."

    which planet are you from?

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  10. Alex

    I like her fight but I really hate when she gets on stage and bluntly lies. I do not mind her demanding Florida and Michigan to be counted or somehow included. However, until the rule is changed she has to abide by the rule. At this stage of the game throwing out words that are more divisive does not help the party. She does not have more popular vote. That is lie. Even if she has, it does not mean a thing. Al Gore would have been president if popular vote were the determining factor. You do not change the rule of the game after the game is played. If she feels strong about popular vote, she has to start another campaign to change the rules. I total support her on that. It will be simple if one vote and simple majority is the rule then we do not need mathematicians to figure out who the winner is. There has to be a point when she just has to admit that it is over without making fuss about rules that does not exist. I would say the same if Obama is whining about the rules too.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  11. Joshua College Station Texas

    I can understand people's grief that their candidate of choice doesn't become the nominee and they want to leave the democrat fold to vote for McCain. Personally, my loyalty is not to a political party but to the best candidate. Part of the reason I do not vote Republican is because I believe the NeoCons have a stranglehold on the Republican party, and I resent everything they stand for (corporate power, shear materialism, money before lives).

    A large Democrat majority with control of the House and Senate will eventually devolve into a gaggle of corrupt officials just like the empty-suited Republicans that were in control before. Politicians have learned to milk the system for personal gain above all else, regardless of party, and corporations key into that to maintain the status quo so they can keep growing their bottom line for themselves and shareholders. They don't care who is in power as long as they can manipulate them for personal gain.

    I don't want to be cynical, but in the end, our next president may not make a huge difference in the way things are in our country. However, out of the bunch of candidates, Obama is absolutely the best choice to try. He doesn't have the baggage of Clinton (a history of scandals, a credibility and integrity perception problem) or McCain (Bush and the NeoCon machine/policies). Obama's weaknesses pale in comparison to those of the other two. And he wants to work on the roots of the problems that exist, and not just band-aid issues: personal responsibility, honesty, and accountability. I just hope he is as sincere and transparent in office as he has tried to be during his campaign.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  12. Tim

    It's time to stop giving McSame a free ride. Democrats unite!!!! We will give McBush the wompin they both deserve!!!!

    Dem 08!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  13. GodBlessAmericaGreatNation

    The Clinton supporters (mostly women) like Ferraro who say they will vote for the republican before voting for Obama are showing exactly what men have said forever:women are too emotional. These ladies are acting like spoiled brats if they don't get their way they are going to make fools out of themselves and the American people are going to suffer for at least 4 more years. Very intellegent ladies! By the way, I am a 40 something white female and I am quite tired of the childish bs.

    May 20, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  14. Carolina Girl

    Polls, polls, polls! They are NEVER accurate. They are only an inkling, and definitely NOT a true outcome.

    I think polls are mainly used to influence and lead voters - hoping that whoever is declared to be leading in the polls will attract the most votes.
    Monkey see, monkey do!

    I would someday like to see an election where not a single poll is taken.
    Then people would REALLY vote their own mind.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  15. Mary

    I don't believe it. Most women I know are mad at the party and the media for giving him a free ride. We feel we have been ignored and that our votes don't count. CNN and MSNBC, NBC have portrayed an image of him like a celebrity. We need someone to lead, not a Hollywood actor. Most of us aren't planning to vote for him. Have you visited the website HillaryClinton.com? I don't think so. You are very biased. You have daughters too. It's why I am fighting for Hillary and disgusted withe media and DNC. I rather vote for McCain because at least I know him. I only watch foxnews now.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  16. john williams san diego, ca.

    give her one more hillbilly win in Kentucky and then never ever bother us again and please take care of bubbas' needs so he can stay at home.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  17. Darren M.

    We need to get back to fighting the real fight, and that is to defeat the GOP in November.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  18. CL OT

    How can we trust her to pull out of Iraq when she can't even pull out of this race? She lost this race over a month ago. Lets move on.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  19. nina

    I still can't believe after all these primaries, that people still are finding a way to blame Obama for MI and FL, and accuse the country of sexism, as if that's the reason hillary isn't winnig.
    She isn't winning because she did not plan past Super Tuesday.
    She isn't winning because she discounted the caucus states
    She isn't winning because she lied to America (Bosnia)
    She isn't winning because she hasn't had a consistent message.
    She isn't winning because she counts on people's ignorance (gas tax holiday)
    She isn't winning because she cannot run an effective campaign (she's over 20 million in debt)
    She isn't winning because she's played by the rebublican hand book, but against her opponent in her own party
    She isn't winning because she and her team keep moving the goal posts to her advantage
    She isn't winning because she herself said Obama too, was/is electable and both of them could beat McCain in the GE
    She isn't winning because she didn't try as hard in the beginning because she came into this race with her name, money, husband, clout etc....NOW, she says she's fighting for the American people because she has to, because she's behind.

    Also, a question to hillary supporters....why is it that hillary only brought up MI and FL AFTER she was behind? She agreed in the fall and signed papers with everyone else stating that if they moved their primaries, their delegates wouldn't count. She wasn't fighting for them in the fall, in jan, or feb, not until after Obama's 11 state winning streak. One other thing i don't understand, Why do people vote for someone promising a gas tax holiday, when they know it's not gonna happen? I'm understanding from the pundits, it's the idea of it. So does that mean hillary is just telling people what they want to hear, even though the economists say it won't help, and some of these people are saying "yeah, she understands us". So some people like being lied to? I don't get it.

    May 20, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  20. Mia and Mike

    Thank you Sen. Clinton Supporters!! Let's take back the White House and begin to heal our nation.

    Prayers and Blessing to Sen. Edward Kennedy and his family.

    May 20, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  21. get with the program

    "Christine V from Dallas, TX May 20th, 2008 1:03 pm ET

    ALSO PROVES THAT THE MEDIA'S(CNN/MSNBC…SO ON SO FORTH) CREDIBILITY IS ZEEEEEROOOO

    CNN IS PRO OBAMABOTS"

    where do you get your news? you seem bitter. post some facts why don't ya. just because you leave your CAPS on, doesn't make your posts relevant.

    May 20, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  22. Jeff D, South Bend, IN

    Of course Democrats are rallying behind their nominee. With the exception of the 200 or so Clinton Crybabies on these CNN forums, democrats recognize that there are multiple Supreme Court justice appointments and Roe vs Wade to consider ,should a Republican take the White House this time.

    As for all you people whining about Hillary and how you are not supporting Obama – power to you. Go waste your vote like an idiot. You'll certainly show us! 200 votes make no difference.

    May 20, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  23. Pamela, Sacramento

    Senator Clinton THANK YOU for preping Senator Obama for the tough fight ahead. We are going to unite despite what has been said. How do you plan to bow out? It's too late for gracious.

    VP... Wexler from NY, Edwards, Richardson...

    PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 08

    May 20, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  24. Franco

    The media and the DNC have both been guilty of the old cliche', if you tell the same LIE over and OVER, everyone will believe it ! All the"Judas" keep falling over in the pursuit of unity. It's all crap, and the Democractic Party will once again goof up by taking the nomination away from Hillary Clinton. The popular vote will go for McCain instead of Obama if Hillary does't get the nomination. The tragedy is that she is the most qualified and also has the most resources.

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  25. Terence Walker

    The sleepers have awakened......And just in time. Thank you America for realizing that the one true candidate is honest, has integrity, and is only interested in uniting the country as a whole. Something sorely missing is quite sometime. That he is African American, or more correctly multicultural, is the best testament yet to the true nature and potential for our great nation.

    Go Obama 2008
    Yes We Will

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
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