May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Matthew

    Hmmm, funny this is coming from CNN.... they'll say or do anything to get Oprahma elected. Its so blatantly BIASED. It's actually quite amusing. Especially during their morning news cast, when they'll just randomly have those late night clips of the tlak show hosts doing Hillary jokes. AMAZING.

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  2. Larry

    If it does end up Obama vs. McCain, CNN, please don't forget to include a question in your general election exit poll asking if McCain voters would have voted for Clinton instead.

    Obama supporters...when Obama loses, don't blame the Clinton's for his loss....just "turn the page".

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  3. Resigned

    If anyone bothers to look at the voting profile (not the primary selection profile) for the actual swing states, it paints a clear picture that in the only election that matters (November) Obama will lose by a significant margin to McCain. Oh well

    McCain in '08
    Clinton in '12

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  4. Jenaye

    In latest footage, Hillary looks totally worn out; as if she's heading for a breakdown or wipe out. It's obvious to me she'll continue to do and say anything if only to convince herself. Like Cinderella's sister, forcing her feet into shoes that DO NOT FIT. She's good for the party, there's no doubt about that. But not to lead the country.

    Meantime, Obama is cool, calm and collected. He's poised he's made immense statements and is the deal the country has been waiting for.

    That's the style America needs both at home and abroad. Steel backbone under a calm and determined surface. Peace and weapons do NOT go together. Proven recipe. Negotiation rather than demolition and obliteration (Clinton word, ehem) of perceived international threats.

    Surely the wise can see that negotiation may just be better ammunition as opposed to 100 000 young men and women, armed to the hilt and facing war

    Go Obama.

    May 20, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  5. Mike

    I really really don't like the tactics and reasoning of some Clinton supporters. Clinton quoted Karl Rove recently saying he believed she would be the stronger candidate. Clinton has consistently quoted polls when they were in her favor e.g. Obama's support is weakening among hard working white people, polls show that I'm better against McCain etc..

    Why all the double standard and hate? Why can't we unite for the sake of the future of this country? You'd rather vote for McCain over Obama????

    Obama and Clinton's policies are 95% the same. McCain is completely different so that means your decision will be based on pure hatred, stupidity and racism. Hope you can explain that to your kids when they're 30 and the country is dead.

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  6. thank you to Jai in PA

    I just wanted to take a moment to thank you for giving your support to Senator Obama even though you were prefer Senator Clinton. I prefer Senator Obama, but if Senator Clinton were to get the nomination, I would give her my support. The Democrats have to unite, American has to unite and then maybe the healing of all the damage the Bush administration has done can begin.

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  7. Joseph

    I still can not believe that America continues to buy into this idiot. I will work to make sure that this joker will never get the Presidency. Stop falling for the bull that Obama keeps shoveling America and look at his record for once. Both Clinton and McCain show a better track record of getting things done and crossing party lines than this arrogant want-a-be. He has all of you fooled and America will suffer gravely becuase of it.

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  8. anna

    The media bashes Clinton on a daily basis. The old Democrat leaders call for her to get out. The party has disallowed the certified votes in Michigan and Florida. CNN and other media talking heads slant all the news about her in a negative way . . .and now, I wouldn't be at all surprised that someone has tampered with the polling results. At this point, I trust no one. All I know is that the blogs are full of former democrats deciding to vote for McCain over Obama and of many of us working for a write-in vote for Clinton. This election is far from over!

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  9. ACTION

    Let's see how the KY and OR results come out.

    Do not make too much story based on a single picked poll.

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  10. GLORIA

    OBAMA IS OUR CHOICE AND CLINTON SHOULD SAVE HERSELF FROM DISGRACE AND QUIT NOW. THIS IS NOT SEXISM BUT A MOVEMENT FOR REAL CHANGE.
    GO DEM. GO OBAMA.

    May 20, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  11. Marty

    Obama will never have support with this Clinton supporter.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  12. bill pike

    the self centered clampetts from arkansas are doing all they can to keep obama out of the white house but i still think obama will be president. it bothers me from sniper fire to things we don't even know about and never will. PLEASE HELP BY GETTING OUT, YOU ARE JUST HURTING YOUR CAUSE MORE AND MORE.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  13. ki-jana carter

    What is the only demographic still polling even between obama and clinton?

    "Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less."

    Proving yet again that Hillary's strongest support comes from dumb people. Easily fooled by her divisive politics and 37 different personalities.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  14. LadiUrsa

    I am a woman, white, highly educated, and over 60. Obama's message has led me to believe in American hope once again. McCain and Clinton would call me naive. I'm delighted to see the changes in the polls.

    I would suggest that people educate themselves about sampling polls before saying they are meaningless.

    Democrats unite!!

    Obama 08 all the way to the White House!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  15. Gerald F.

    These polls change so much so fast that they are becoming a joke. They're starting to read like a gag from comedy:

    "Did you know that 35% of the people did not vote as the other 65% did ? Even though 17% of the 35% knew that 30% of the 65% were wrong and that the other 18% of the 35% felt that the other 20% of the 65% were right in making the wrong choice? "

    I rest my case.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  16. The elephant in the room

    Thanks to all of the Hillary supporters that put America over their own personal feelings. We also welcome those who are sticking it out with Hillary til the end before u come over. We'll see u guys soon. Those of u who want to sabatoge this election outof spite and vote against your own personal interests, then shame on u. You have to live with that because we are all adults and I am not babysitting/begging u to do what's right for u and your children. Let's make 1 thing clear, I will vote Hillary over McCain anyday.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  17. maya

    Headline in newspaper (Seattle PI)
    Hanford Question Stumps Obama

    Says it all. Apparently, Mr Obama knows NOTHING about THE NATION'S MOST CONTIMINATED NUCLEAR AREA!!

    This is such a disgrace. This is NOT ACCEPTABLE. Obama is such a weak media created candidate, empty suit.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  18. Syqueen

    So What is her argument now?
    Time is running out Senator Clinton. Be prepared for the exit on June 3.Unless you want to hold on to the popular vote then you need to figure out how to include the Caucus states in the popular vote. I don't think the lead will be your way after that.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  19. McCain

    Go Obama!

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  20. karenVA

    I'm white, college degree, 58, never made more than $55K and will soon be like that homeless woman sleeping in the car with my pets. Although a part of my feminist heart will die when Hillary is dragged kicking and screaming off the stage in Denver ( well, I hope it ends before then, and with dignity), I switched to Obama last year and nothing in the way Clinton ran her campaign made me question that decision. This poll can be dismissed or challenged like any poll – how many of us thought John Kerry was going to win in 2004? – but I think it shows all but the most fanatical Clinton supporters realize it is time for the party to unite. Hillary Clinton will vote for Obama in November and her supporters should take that as a sign to get over their hurt feelings and stand up for the party.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  21. kay

    It's about time Democrats come together and support the candidate who has lead throughout the campaign. Go Obama! We do not need McCain as President and another of the same Bush years. Also McCain has too many ties with lobbyists and special interests which we need to get away from. This last week 5 of his top aides resigned after disclosures about their lobbying. McCain still stands by his Chief Adviser, Charlie Black, lobbyist, who worked for some of the world's worst dictators. Do your research for the facts on this and see the real McCain.

    May 20, 2008 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  22. Joann

    Polls in a word...CRAP! The polls have been so WRONG throughout the whole process. I just read that Clinton has strong numbers in all of those groups. So who do we believe? I tell you who, NO ONE, especially the media who anointed Obama long ago, and YES CNN that includes you!

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  23. Bart

    Senator Clinton was a great and formidable candidate. But she lost and the game is over now. Please stop attacking her and focus on the opponent ahead.

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  24. PSmith

    Who did they poll McCain?

    This is BS and you know it!

    WRITE HILLARY'S NAME ON THE BALLOT!

    BARAK HUSSIEN OBAMA will never be the President of the United States of America!

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  25. AL

    To all you people who say you will not vote for Obama, I just want to ask a couple of questions.

    1) Why? If your reason is because he is black, then you have a problem, not him

    2) Did Obama beat up on Clinton when she was caught in her lies? No, not once. He did not pour salt into her wounds. The man has character that others did not display.

    3) If hate is your motive, then he has more power over you than you know. There is so much hate being promoted in this election.

    If you chose not to vote for him, there will be others who will stand in the gap for you, he will still win and you will not be a part of the biggest history in your life.

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
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