May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. M.Foster - Seattle

    On a certain level I have to step back and look at what Hillary is doing and I can't help but see a desperate futility to continue run when the race is over! And her supporters? What of these women who feel so disenfranchised that they are calling for her to not quit? I find this so sad that a certain group of people refuse to accept the outcome of what is happening with regards to Barack Obama becoming the Democratic nominee over Hillary.

    Hillary you have LIED, tried very hard to cheat (wanted to add Florida and Michigan when Barack wasn't even on the ballot in MI) and your refusal to accept defeat in a gracious manner does NOT make you look smart and persevering, but instead makes you LOOK LIKE A FOOL and an idiot!

    Being a woman myself, I would have loved to see a woman as president, but early on I listened to Hillary and just didn't like what she was saying. Our country and planet are in places we should not be on so many levels. It is time to vote for change. Business as usual just isn't working right now.

    GO HOME HILLARY AND GET SOME REST!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  2. Zoey

    I would love for the Clinton supporters to come aboard. If you simply don't like Obama then that's fine. But before you make your judgement, please do the research first. DO NOT let the media, garbage blogs like on the internet, or people so call "inform" about Obama. It is in our best interest as Democrats that we learn more about his policies and plan. Hiliary and Obama essentially have the same exact plan with a minor difference in Healthcare.

    And for those who wish harm towards Obama's family need to get a life. I give credit to some West Virginians who admit that race plays a factor in their vote. At least they are adult enough to admit it, rather than hide behind their guilt and blame everyone else but themselves.

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  3. An American in Canada for David

    We, H.R. Clinton staunch supporters will back her all the way to the White House.

    She is the only qualified future president, compared to empty promises of hope from Obama and same old, same old McCain.

    The male chauvinists and some of the self-hatred females in the DNC party is very revealing.

    The manner in which the DNC party and others deliberately and methodologically undermined H.R. Clinton, from the very beginning of her campaign, is unforgiveable.

    We female supporters voted for Hillary because she is the best candidate and not simply because she is a woman.

    She, nonetheless, is a brilliant substantial candidate who has excellent policies and solutions the hundred of problems that will be awaiting the next president in January 2009.

    We support Clinton and not necessary the Democratic Party, most of us will change our affiliation to Independents, what the DNC and the behind the scenes money men, have done to Clinton will not go unpunished... A backlash will be experienced....

    If Clinton does not get the nomination, Obama will not be able to win us over, as we said we are Clinton supporters’ not so much Democratic supporters….

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  4. Truth

    At the end we all democrats and we need to come togetehr for the sake of the country. The issues are the same and handling will not much different.
    At the end Obama will seek help from Bill and Hillary Clinton and both will join him

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  5. Oliver

    It is time for Clitn to bow out! Its over! Clinton is doing nothin more than damage the Demogratic Party. Extremly selfish!

    May 20, 2008 01:30 pm at 1:30 pm |
  6. Herman in LA

    I'm am an Obama supporter and even though I supported Hillary & Bill and voted for them I do forgive Hillary for playing the race card and saying and running the ads that she ran against Barack. I know that this was a hard fought campaign and the grand prize is the most powerful position of the land and the world in this country. All I got to say is you Hillary supporters who will not vote for Barack just think about Roe.v.Wade being over turned and your lives and daughters lives being turned up side down because you failed to put your differences aside from this campaign and chose to make an unwise decision in not supporting the demarcate nominee.

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  7. Democrats Rule

    Was at the Nevada State Democratic Convention this weekend and the fact that it is over was evident in President Clinton's comments and his unification speach which was incredibly well received by the delegates. This one is done and we need to move on to the General and, as President Clinton said – don't forget why we have gone to all this trouble – it is to take back the whitehouse in November! So, President Obama it is! and thanks be to God! 🙂

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  8. J Messing

    Obama should definitely pick a woman VP - Claire McKaskill!

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  9. Mary

    Blue collar un-educated voters count. Many of you have relatives who fall in that category. Every vote counts and every state. I want to add that is fair to attack Michelle. If Obama doesn't like the heat you know what he has to do. When Bill was defending Hillary you all called him a racist. Si it's fair game attacking Michelle. Too many chauvinists in this country. they should learn from Argentina with a female Pres. It's all about sexism. I saw a guy wearing a T-shirt saying "Hillary you can cook for me but you can't be my President. What those women pro Obama have to say about it? Women are their worst enemy. Don't complain. This country is a male world.

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  10. Anita - AZ

    That's good to hear the Gallup polls are favoring Obama. We can come to a close and unite the party.

    Obama '08

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  11. AJ

    Here we go again, with CNN editing comments that disagree with their agenda. I'll say it again; any idiot that can read an editorial map can see that Obama cannot win in November. White adults will then take over the election without making their choice based on race or pie in the sky dreams. The black vote will be diluted, the college kids will be overwhelmed by adults who actually care about this nation, and Obama will be defeated. We are actually the portion of the Democratic electorate who work and have families to rise. We care about what happens to our nation. We are not stuck in some Willy Wonka fantasy that has been woven by a con man. We will not support Obama as we do not believe in him and believe he will be a disaster. We are more concerned with the future of our children than we are in being part of a "movement."

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  12. Get Real

    State by State Analysis:

    http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/McCainClintonObama051608.pdf

    Everyone click and read the map.

    McCain will win!

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  13. Fran

    Hillar supporters, if she does not get the nomination, please vote for John McCain... never for Obama.

    Hillary or McCain 08!!

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  14. Clinton/McCain

    Obviously this poll is flawed. I'm still 100% against Obama and I'm a graduate student finishing up my PhD. Go figure!

    May 20, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  15. Matt Callaway in Omaha, NE

    Many people writing comments seem to have no understanding of how a poll such as described in the story is conducted. Calls are generally random. A fixed set of questions are asked. This poll focused on those responding as Democrats or Democrat-leaning for the GE. Gallup usually conducts these polls using respondents from random locations throughout the United States, not in one state or only a handful of states. It's simply random.

    The percentage of error (+/- 3 points in this case) is a calculated figure based purely on statistics. Now it's important to know exactly what questions were asked to be certain that the results are not skewed because of question-bias. I don't have the questions verbatim and doubt anyone posting does either.

    Statistics are statistics. I'm more afraid of a shark attack than I am of dying in an automobile accident. That's irrational, and I know it. Just because I FEEL more scared of sharks does nothing to change the cold-hard statistics.

    Any Clinton supporter willing to support McCain seems to be voting on nothing but personality because the two could not be further apart on policy. Myself, I'm a policy voter who will vote for Senator Clinton or Senator Obama come November. If it turns out that many Clinton-supporting Democrats defect to McCain and we're forced to go four more years w/the same policies this country will be more divided than ever.

    Your vote helps to influence people's lives. I refuse to be petty, spiteful, or vengeful when it comes to making decisions of such importance and I wouldn't want to be in a political party full of people who are. If negative emotions propel McCain to victory the Democratic party might as well disband.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  16. Steve

    HE'S WILLING TO SACRIFICE ANYTHING (MI & FL ELECTORATE) JUST TO BE IN POWER!!!

    I wish somehow these folks could learn that Obama is not the cause of their beloved MI and FL votes not being counted. It was fraught with stupidity from the outset. It was NOT Clinton's fault, it was NOT Obama's fault. It was the fault of the State perty people who moved the primary date fully understanding the consequences.

    Why is that so hard to understand? If you blame Obama for not readily agreeing to her proposal to give her all the votes since he wasn't on the ballot, well, then you're obviously beyond reasoning with.

    I hope you realize that if they gave her the FL results as they came out, and gave her the 55% of the MI vote (and giving him the 40% "uncommitted") she will NOT lead in popular vote and would only gain about 62 delegates (the lead now is close to 200.) SHE CANNOT WIN. Why the bitterness to blame Obama for the States' error in judgment?

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  17. Shane fm MD

    If Hillary is out, people will switch and vote to John Mccain instead of Barack "Hussain" obama reason atleast Mccain have enough past so we can judge him, I visited middle eastern countries for business and spoke to so many of them, believe me or not those guyz wants so badly Obama to be president, don’t you see a relation between not wearing flag, the middle name "Hussain", Farrkhan support, Hamas approval and middle eastern liking for Obama

    People, please dont decide and vote based on race, think about how much you know about the person you are going to elect as president.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  18. ruthere53

    Even though i am for Obama, he has no chance of winning in the fall

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  19. Debbie

    Clinton does NOT speak for all women.
    She is NOT a great example to women.
    I do NOT like they way she has run her campaign.
    And I would LOVE to have been able to vote for a woman NOT her!
    And her female supporters are dragging all women down with their false claim of sexism – HC lost fair & square.
    She had all the benefits any candidate could possible have – and she LOST!
    Obama isn't trying to win the nominationby bribing Super Delegates, he doesn't have "fuzz" math, he isn't claiming to have won states he didn't win!
    HC needs to get over herself and her ego and her supporters need to get over it too!
    Let's move on and start building a better country for our kids – BEFORE its' too late!

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  20. Bitter Tommy Hussein in St. Louis

    Clinton Supporter May 20th, 2008 12:54 pm ET

    How amusing that Barack called a reporter, Honey. He later added it was "a bad habit" of his for a long time and means nothing. If someone called Barack the N word, explaining that it was "a bad habit for a long time and means nothing," would the boys on MSNBC and CNN treat as a joke and trivialize it? You tell me.

    -----------------------–

    You could at least bother to get the pet name right. It was "sweetie," not "honey." And you know darn well that the "N" word is a lot different than a pet name that is perfectly ordinary to many people. Don't play stupid.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  21. Obama has won

    The only places Obama is losing big are in the deep south. The racial issue aside, the deep south never votes Democratic anyway, so big whoop.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  22. Dee

    If Obama were white, Hillary's supporters would not be reluctant to vote for him in November. Why did Hillary take WVA, and why will she do well in Kentucky? Simple: There is a lot of racism in each of these states. It's about obama's skin color.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  23. Georgette

    Obama’s perspective on Iran is naïve. This is only one of many areas that shows his lack of experience. Yes, one can negotiate with American ermines, but you CAN NOT negotiate with evil! Plain and simple! The Bible explains this in great detail. It is apparent Obama and his misguided supporters just don’t understand this. And this in the end will be Americas down fall. Many Americans just can’t see or perhaps don’t want to see nor except what is happening right before our eyes.
    The Iranian President believes he is the chosen one to usher in the Jihad. He believes his destiny is to create as much ciaos as possible before Jihad returns. And he will continue until his mission is complete.
    Obama, does not have the experience, is not strong enough and does not understand what exactly is at stake here. A few of us Americans understand what is happening and we can see down the road to what will happen if Obama becomes President.
    May God have mercy on all of us.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  24. Democratic Supporter

    The democrats really need to come together on this. I just can't imagine any democrat voting for McCain in November – or writing in Hillary's name – that would doom our country to more of the same heartache from the past 7+ years. Do we really want to do that to ourselves?

    I understand that some of you don't like Obama and the reasons vary -1) perceved lack of experience (can be overcome), 2) that he doesn't wear a flag pin (neither do I – former Marine and proud American), 3) he called someone sweetie (people call me that all the time when they don't know my name – or honey), 4) loose, loose, loose ties to Ayers (which Hillary has her own skeletons), 5) he knows how to speak intelligently (better than the dummy we have in office now), and 6) his wife made an misinterpreted statement (stupid, yes).

    Seriously, if these are the reasons you won't vote for him, I just don't get it. Why? We cannot have McCain in office come 2009 – we just can't. You don't have to agree with everything Obama says, but he is the person that will give us real change. If Hillary had won the nomination, fine – I would support her as well. But she's asking the DNC to throw out the democratic process because it doesn't suit her needs – would she be saying the same thing if the shoe was on the other foot? I think not.

    It's a sad time in America when people will vote outside of their party for a person who we know will lead us to heartache, just because they don't like the color of someone's skin (and yes, we should admit that's major reason why some people are so against the idea of Barack winning). It's rather sad.

    May 20, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  25. TJ

    To: "Clinton Supporter" – I often say honey when talking to people. It's a sign of affection, not a slight or insult. Come down off your pious high horse and move on with your life.

    To: "DON'T BELIEVE THIS POLL!!!!!!" – Who's robbing who? Have you actually done any true research on your own? or are you another lackey just following the herd. Maybe you just like to spout off nonsense to hear yourself speak. Well good for you. No go crawl back under the rock you came out of.

    To: All the supposed clinton supporters who say they will not vote for Obama in November. Fine. Go ahead and vote for the same crap we have had to deal with for the last 8 years... Vote for war. vote for making the poor poorer. vote for more of the same old same old. and while your at it.. go ahead and change parties. The dems don't want or need you. You are among the minority kids.

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24