May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Jim

    I just cannot believe what CNN reports. I think it is not the people but CNN
    that is going for election. They love to praise obama and put clinton down for event the smallest thing. Get lost CNN!!!!!!!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  2. Priscilla for Obama

    A note to Gayle above... If you don't have anyone to vote for this primary season and general election season, just fake it and vote Obama!

    He's the way to go.

    Obama for President – Yes We Can!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  3. JJ in NY

    Looks like two crooks who should be in jail !

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  4. Charles

    Folks need to educate themselves with regards to polling. One of the first things to learn is the Law of Large Numbers. Second is sampling error.

    These two are just basic stuff and the area becomes a forest quickly. However, these two will give you insight into the process.

    In a democracy, particularly ours which is a representative form of democracy, education is essential. You do not have to spend a lot of time, Google will give you a good intro.....but you need to educate yourself.....but that could be asking to much of most.

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  5. BarackStar

    HRC is being extremely selfish by staying in the race. She has to know, mathematically, there is no way she can become the nominee. I was very open in the beginning. However, sided with Obama when Clinton started running such a negative campaign.

    O-Bama
    O-Eight
    O-Yeah

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  6. TESAP

    I think the part should began to unite, I am sorry but HC cannot win, but to state that you would not vote for the other Democrat instead vote for the Republican is outrageous. Honestly, there are those who will not vote for Obama just because of his race, to those people I say they can be Republicans as well, right now we are witnessing the racial divide of the Democratic Party, I think we should get past this and think of OUR country no matter what race you are. If color precedes judgement then maybe you should move to a pred white country, with all white politicians, sexism was not a reason for Clinton's defeat egoism was, Obama was underestimated, the underdog and looked over.

    I challenge you as democrats to give a logical reason why you would vote for McCain over Obama..........

    Obama and HC supporters its time we kiss and make up or we will lose the elections and we will be the ones to blane..... 🙂

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  7. Ed

    And for the last time....Clinton will leave once the DNC meets on the 31St and after everyone has had a choice on June 3, 2007. She will not divide the party. I am glad she has given EVERYONE a chance to cast there vote and be in the process. Very close to June 4th we will have a united front moving forward.....Hiliary will help the Democrats win in a landslide!

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  8. Tuoyo, pikesville md

    The party is finally coalecing around him , God Bless Barak , God bless the Clinton, God Bless America

    May 20, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  9. Ellie

    These polls clearly indicate that Americans are focusing on November and they know Sen. Obama will be the Democratic nominee.

    Sen. Obama has now changed the demographics across the board which clearly proves without a doubt that he can beat John McCain in November.

    Americans need to rally behind Sen. Obama so we can focus on erasing 8 LONG YEARS of BUSH/McCAIN policies in the White House. We as a nation can't and won't survive another Bush term of 4 years with John McCain.

    Don't let your EGOS dictate what the PRIMARY FOCUS of this race is all about. It's about putting a DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT in the Oval Office!! Bottom line.

    People need to stop with the ignorant "threats" and start putting their egos in check and let's get to work beating John McCain. We need to pull our resources together and show the Republicans that we are NOT going to be bullied anymore!!! We are not going to tolerate any more soldiers being killed in Iraq, we are not going to keep losing our homes because of the GREEDY POLITICS being played at the expense of the American families who have worked hard to support their families!!!

    WE are NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY MORE BUSHMAN/McCAN policies that have ran this country right into the toilets!!!

    NO WAY JOHN McCAIN IS GETTING INTO THE OVAL OFFICE!!!

    DON'T MAKE EXCUSES, TAKE A STAND AND MAKE YOUR VOICES HEARD!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  10. DaveW

    Hillary, I thought you were our only hope, but I just can't stomach all the negative TV ads that you are running. If you're going to attack someone, attack Bush, not Barack. Geez. It seems clear to everyone that you are the candidate who always throws muck, and this I find hard to forgive. You are forcing me to support Barack.

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  11. Darryl

    Hillary Clinton still thinks she can Offer Senator Obama to be her VP,, Second place in her mind means she actually in first place.

    Their different rules if your last names are Bush or Clintons.......

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  12. Mark

    Nobama is a loser. He will never beat McCain.

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  13. lawrenceville

    obama pluscnn plus msnbc=dnc

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  14. Scott

    It's time to settle behind our nominee. Let's face it, Obama won more states, more pledged delegates, and more votes (even including Michigan and Florida) if you count the caucus states. If you are a democrat, the only reason not to vote for Obama in the fall is if you are a racist. You can gussy it up all you like, but the policy position differences between Clinton and Obama are very small.

    And how many Clinton supporters who are dissapointed will really want a Bush third term, and more supreme court justices that will overrule Roe v Wade and other progressive decisions.

    Both are relatively inexperienced but have potential, both have had circumstances help them (Hillary would not be a contender if her husband hadn't been president before, and Obama's record is thin, he made it because he is the first nonthreatening black candidate with a real chance.)

    Anyway it is time to face facts. Obama will be the Democratic nominee. And it is time to support him and stop the Bush third term!

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  15. Farren Ballanst

    ***Obama Rules!***

    Up the meds!

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  16. DY

    Obama still doesn't have my vote nor HALF of the Hillary supporters come November, IF he is the nominee.

    McCain will be our next president if that is the case.

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  17. Kiah

    WOW! Impressive numbers. It's good to know that there are only a small select group of individuals while most Dems are beginning to rally around what appears to be our nominee.

    I am happy to see our party finally coming together.

    Obama '08

    May 20, 2008 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  18. Kathy Corey

    CNN and the other media only report on polls that match their pre-conceived opinions. We'll see tonight when real voters actually vote ...what happens.

    If Obama is the nominee...Clinton supporters will not riot in the streets. We will quietly vote in Novmeber for Senator McCain.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  19. John, OH

    I wonder how Clinton plans to get the superdelegates to say that he's unelectable now.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  20. Bud

    Great! Now, can we end this and begin the work of appealing to those swing voters who are sick of this primary B.S. and sick of the Bush/McCain trainwreck?

    We've got a country to save and an election to win. It's time for the loser lady to go take a nap in hubby's new library.

    GO AWAY, HILLARY!

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  21. Jon, Pittsburgh, PA

    jmarie you don't know what you are talking about. Neither do most on this blog. A huge problem in America today – everyone thinks they know everything and these blogs give all the misinformed an outlet. It's clear to me, Americans are still as dumb and misinformed as they always have been. GW Bush in office two terms is a good example.

    Democrats should be very concerned that so many Clinton supporters are saying they will never vote for him. They are not necessarily all racist, though some are. I realize we need a Democrat in the White House and more in the House and Senate, so I plan to vote for Obama in the fall if he's the nominee, which seems likely.

    However, like others that posted here before me, I know many Democrats who are absolutely not going to vote for Obama. I am working on them and maybe by November they will have changed their minds. I hope so because without them, I'm afraid Obama won't win in my state of PA or in OH and a few others key states. The Democrats may have picked a loser.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  22. Barbara GA

    To All

    Let pull together and Heal the party. This was a wonderful race it got so many people involved in the process. Let Rally around our party and uplift both Obama and Hillary!

    Obama 08
    Hillary 08

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  23. Zoey

    Hey Mr./Ms. DON'T BELIEVE THIS POLL!!!!!!

    Where in the world are you getting your "ideas" from? You really need to relax. This country right now is already tained dog food. The economy sucks, the american dollar isn't worth monopoly money, unemployment is high, healthcare is high, and people are losing their homes. At this point, I seriously doubt neither Hiliary or Obama could do anymore damage.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  24. leon

    To all OBAMA's supporters full of hate

    We CLinton's supporters will not vote for Obama because we understand that Barack is an average and vulgar politician that has not achieved anything substantial in Illinois nor in Washington but painting himself like a new kind of politician he really isn't. He betrayed his pastor, his people, has divided the Democractic Party, his message of change is vague with no substance with not real platform for delivering his promise.

    he will drive this country to caos

    Vote for Hillary in November! Write on her name on the ballot!

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  25. Randy M

    To Debby and Don't Believe the Polls: Clinton has been getting all kinds of good press from CNN the last few weeks. What show have you been watching? They've done everything to try and keep her in the race. It's all about the dollars. And how do you figure Hillary is getting robbed? This has been a fair election that didn't go her way. She thought it would be over on Super Tuesday and ran her campaign accordingly. When it didn't happen, she had no back up plan. If she had it wrapped up on Super Tues. do you honestly believe she'd give a hoot about Fla. or Mich.? What if the outcome of those 2 primaries would put her in some trouble against Obama. I guarantee she would have every hot shot lawyer in the country fighting to keep their results out. It's ludicrous to think her motives are ANYTHING but to benefit Hillary. I understand you want a woman for President and I have no problem with that. I do have a problem with Clinton as President. We don't need the most devisive person in politics in the White House.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
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