May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. BillJ

    I'm a Dem.voting for McCain period.

    May 20, 2008 01:35 pm at 1:35 pm |
  2. Adam

    Never vote obama!

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  3. LionHeart

    As a lot of people have said in this thread, its time to put down any animosity between the two camps and come together. It appears that Obama is going to get the nomination but if Hillary wants to continue her campaign, let her do so. In the end, we must unite and ensure that we get as many (quality) democrats elected as possible in November.

    DEMOCRATS "08

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  4. Democrat in 08!

    Well this is good news all democrats should unite to beat McCain in November in 08 no matter who is the nominee. McCain doesn't have the interest of democrats so a vote for him will essentially be a vote for no one since your concerns will no be address.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  5. Unshrub

    What argument does Hillary still have in getting the nomination? She just deserves to be President.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  6. Dee Tee Gee Arlington, TX

    There's no need to bash Senator Clinton. She fought a good fight. She used the wrong strategy. Rather than sticking with the issues, she went negative & it backfired on her. And now she's allowing her pride to keep her in a race she can't win, and that's sad. It's really starting to become a sideshow. I think she's shown that attempting to bring our nation back to respectability is not tops on her priority list & Obama has continuously shown that it's his top priority. He has been consistent. When Hillary basically said all she needed to win was the "redneck" vote, I heard the fat lady warming up. This election is revealing the true feelings of this country, its TRUE feelings. It's intriguing to watch.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  7. Alex in San Diego

    Now I see why she should be President!

    With all of her political experience, Hillary can't even run a viable campaign.

    Her Campaign is a financial mess!

    She can't seem to count!

    She has effectively lost a lock nomination to the new kid on the political block!
    (By grossly underestimating her opponent, that’s the type of leader we want)

    She either has a terrible memory or is simply a liar!

    Is content playing silly political games such as the Gas Tax Holiday!
    (Ignoring economist, because they don't agree and playing to the morons. Not surprising her campaign is broke).

    Shows the Stubbornness of W, Rumsfield and Cheney.

    Why not give her my Vote!

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  8. Julie, Ohio

    Who cares?

    Obama wont win bc Clinton supporters like me are not going to vote for him. For the first time in my life I will be voting republican and I am as excited to vote against Obama as I was to vote for Clinton.

    Win-Win for me !!!

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  9. Oracle99

    I am a woman also and feel Hillary is doing a great disservice to women. She is not portraying herself as strong but incompetent. Her whining about sexism is just her failure to admit she doesn't have what it takes to run a campaign much less the country. In her case "I am woman hear me roar" translates to her campaign needing a rabies shot.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  10. idlesurfer

    Haven't you heard the latest argument from the Clinton campaign? The only voters with the maturity to understand the country's problems are women 50 or older. Since they still favour Clinton, she should win the nomination.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  11. Voter in Chicago

    I can't express how sad I am that Hillary is likely not to be our nominatee. I believe this miss by our party will greatly hamper our chances of winning the general election. I've been a loyal democate since I turned 18, but when faced with the choice between Obama and McCain, I'm terribly conflicted. I clearly believe that McCain is better prepared than Obama to back up campaign rhetoric with actions. I voted for Obama to become the junior senator from my state, but come on...president? In an election year that we were set to make history I'm afraid we're about to turn many long-term democrates into reluctant republicans.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  12. AJ

    I love Obama, don't get me wrong, but these polls sure do smell fishy. It's like CNN finds polls to support the current trend of the nomination process every single day. Basically the race is mathematically over, so now CNN finds a survey that refutes every single argument Clinton is making to stay in the race...if the shoe were on the other foot, us Obama supporters would probably be screaming conspiracy. CNN has really done a shoddy job of "journalism" this year...it's nothing but a ratings grabbing event where they will shower coverage and support for one candidate from one week to another to spice up the excitement

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  13. Terry

    This is one person Obama has not and will not win over. I'll either write Hillary in come November if she's not the nominee or vote for McCain. Unlike lemmings, I do run off cliffs because others do.

    NOBAMA...

    Hillary 08!

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  14. Karen

    Load of crap CNN

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  15. People are you listening

    Reality Check for democrats.

    Let's just say right now every superdelegate left goes to Hillary Clinton and gives the nomination to her. Is there anyone here Clinton/Obama supporters alike, that really believe that she would win the GE. After you have a candidate that one twice as many states had the majority of the elected delegates, was only down in the popular vote (using clinton math) by 5000 votes including a state he wasn't even on the ballot and raised more money than anybody in history using the internet and the average american. Is there anyone here Clinton/Obama supporters alike, that truly believes that she would win the GE. And as a women do you want the nomination to be given to hear when even though she may be a stronger candidate she was definitely out campaigned and out managed by Obama..

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  16. vjh

    Excellent news. I have a question re: the Primaries for both Dems and Repubs. OK, McCain is the presumptive repub nominee, no one is disputing this and yet the voters are still voting in the remaining repub primaries. Why is it then it isn't ok for Obama to declare to be the presumptive dem and still continue with the primary? Is it because McCain reached the total delegates needed? Just a question I had in my head.

    May 20, 2008 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  17. Susan

    It's funny when pundits ask why Obama "can't seal the deal." It's a fact that negativity eventually takes its toll. Clinton, McBush, and Bush have all gone after Obama at one point or another, with hate- and race-baiting, bringing out the worst in voters. And then these people and their followers ask why he "can't seal the deal." This is too funny. I hope people see this for what it is, a game. Clinton, McBush, and Bush are betting the American polity is a body of idiots, and at times, their bets have paid off!

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  18. Amy

    Looks like the fat lady in the pantsuit is singing.....game over

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  19. Creative Woody

    All those groups are Judases and traitors!

    Keep donating to Hillary! She needs YOUR money to pay back the $11 million she loaned to herself.

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  20. donna sherman

    Everyone seems to keep wondering why Obama didn't campaign in Ky and WV, and why these two states are considered Clinton territory.
    They are two of the worst redneck states in the union. Obama wouldn't be safe in either one of them. These people are not voting for Clinton, they are voting against the black man. And, they wouldn't vote for Clinton if they thought she had a chance of winning. They don't like women as their boss, either. Obama's first showing of true bravery is to stand on a platform in plain view and speak to a crowd.
    This country has not come so far that it is safe for a black man to be our president. The racist ideas are still behind the eyes of a lot of disgusting white men in every state who consider white men to be the most important element of America.

    Michelle Obama's remark about America came from a different America than the white people know. She was raised in the black community and knows first hand the perils of stepping to the front of the bus. America is a different world to her and the black community.
    Her pride in her adult years is well founded when she sees her husband a part of the other America. She has hope for her girls and their future that she didn't have; being in an open society that welcomes everyone regardless of their skin color. Her faith in that America will be tested many times, and that is terrible, horrible and exasperating.

    On the VP position: Most of us know the Clintons well enough to realize the danger to Obama if he put her on his ticket. Most of us, also know, that she will do anything to become president. No-one will stand in her way. He wouldn't even make it to the Nov. election.
    But, it is to also be noted, that McCain would very likely be the only one standing. It seems the Eastern world's ways have rubbed off on our country, rather than the other way around. Those red blooded red necks would have their way. No-one is going to change their
    America. They like it the way it is.

    ds, Missouri

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  21. Lyn in Indiana

    As an Obama supporter, I think Mrs. Clinton should stay in the race for the remaining primaries. More importantly, for all she and her husband have contributed to this Country, she should be treated with the highest level of respect. I certainly wish her the very best!

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  22. IMPORTANT

    THIS COUNTRY IS IN SERIOUS TROUBLE BECAUSE WE HAVEN'T LEARNED HOW TO CONDUCT AN HONEST ELECTION.

    WE HAVE A PRESIDENT THAT WAS NOT ELECTED BY MAJORITY VOTE.

    NOW, IN THIS PRIMARY, SUPER DELEGATES ARE VOTING DIFFERENTLY THAN THE POPULAR VOTE IN THEIR STATES.
    THIS IS LITTERALLY SAYING THAT ONE VOTE IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THOUSANDS.

    I WON'T VOTE FOR CLINTON OR OBAMA, AND I'M NOT EXCITED ABOUT MCCAIN. BUT THIS COUNTRY WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF IF OUR LEADERS WERE ELECTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULAR VOTE, NOT DELEGATES, SUPER DELEGATES, OR ELECTORIAL VOTES.

    May 20, 2008 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  23. Zoe

    Democrats who say they won't vote for Obama as our presidential
    candidate are being childish....this isn't a school yard folks. Giving the edge to the GOP gives us more wars and lousy foreign and domestic policies.

    Use your heads!

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  24. Democrats Unite

    Democrats have to rally behind the winner to win against John McCain
    whether it be Hillary or Barack. We all have one common goal and
    that's to WIN in November for WE THE PEOPLE. Democrats stick
    together and not let the republicans divide us by pretending to be
    democrats against democrats on the blogs. We are ALL educated and
    smart against the republicans. Unite and let the games begin.

    YES WE CAN!!!
    DEMOCRATS 08!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  25. antonio glanville

    Obama, obama, obama the chant is getting louder

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24