May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. isis dagmar

    Guys, we are all Democrats (or Republicans or Independents) who are fed up with Bush's policies). Let's just agree that we will rally behind the Democratic candidate because the alternative is 4-8 years of McCain's policies, which in some very important areas–Iraq War, economy, for example–are basically a continuation of Bush's.

    If we don't unite as a party, thousands more Americans will die. I understand that many of Senator Clinton's supporters are disappointed, and they have every right to be, but please don't let your disappointment or your dislike of Obama blind you to the fact that he and Clinton are incredibly similar in terms of their policies, and that the alternative is thousands more American deaths. And Iraqi deaths. And just a lot of death in general.

    Clinton herself said that to vote for McCain would be "a terrible mistake."

    And please, can we all be a little more civil. People shouldn't call Clinton's supporters names, and Clinton supporters definitely shouldn't call Obama supporters "Obamabots." I understand why people prefer Clinton, and I respect that preference. I happen to prefer Obama (I am a white woman, by the way)and think that he would be a great president, and I expect that preference to be respected.

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  2. Ex Clinton supporter

    Hillary will be stepping down by Friday, she has to. My vote will not go to Obama like millions of us soar losers that still believe Hillary should have won this by a land slide along time ago.
    Blame it on the media or gender it does not matter, what does matter is that Obama is sent home also.
    Leiberman/Clinton 08

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  3. Fed Up

    The only reason she's still running is to raise money.

    It's OVER!

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  4. Fredi

    According to some recent polls Obama would win Oregon (7 electoral votes) against McCain by 6% while Hillary would LOSE the State. Both candidates would lose Kentucky (8) to McCain. That seems to give Obama the edge in electoral math in today's primaries – but then who care about math or the facts?

    May 20, 2008 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  5. Tjstelten

    The Clinton's only care about themselfs! Hillary says she cares about the voices of the people but the only way she could win is by having the super delegets over-ride the electorial delegets that are the voices of the people. I get really up-set that the media does not confront her or her soke person's about this controdiction! Her grace window is over! A grace window they would never never have given Obama! I also recall when Bill was running and having trouble getting the lower income vote,that Hillary said," Screw them! We can win without their votes!." My, My how things change when it servers your plans. They both are liars! Proven liars,not just my opinion!

    May 20, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  6. Christine V from Dallas, TX

    mmartin arkansaw May 20th, 2008 1:07 pm ET

    AND YOU CAN'T TAKE THE HEAT! WIMP

    May 20, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  7. Mike

    All I can say to you, CNN, Thats what you think!

    It is not happening. If Clinotn is not the nominee, McCain or none of the above.

    May 20, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  8. linchristi

    They had it on Drudge report and the people only counted were 1214..Nothing very telling..

    May 20, 2008 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  9. Dave

    Sen. Obama in the nominee PERIOD let the election play out so we can heal the party, and beat the sox off of John McCain this November. Those of you who are considering voting for McCain please think about what you'll be doing to this country for ANOTHER 4 years. Matters will only get worse with another republican in office. Please think about this long and hard.

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  10. james

    Duhhh... it's natural for the public to begin to unite around a single candidate and because others are now doing that does NOT mean they wouldn't prefer Hillary. They just don't see her as the probable nominee... thanks to the pundits, media and the backstabbers of Washington.

    For Hillary supporters who are not swayed by the polls and the media and the SG's we are uniting to right the wrong and to teach the DNC and Obamamaniacs a lesson.

    We are voting for McCain '08 for Clinton '12.
    Obama, well, NEVER!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  11. Worried Democrat

    No one has polled me and apparently not the many Dems I know that do NOT support Mr. Obama but DO support Ms. Clinton and are not going to vote for Mr. Obama because he is not experienced enough to hold this office. Mr. Obama is a great speechmaker and sure is charasmatic but bottom line he does not have the necessary experience to hold the highest office in our land.

    Let me ask you this, if you were hiring two employees sight unseen and not getting to hear them speak, whose resume would you think was better qualified?

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  12. Dave- Las Vegas

    You will do anything to elect your favorite son, Obama! He will never win the general election and if he does, we will be stuck with another "learn on the job President" like Bush was. CNN doesn't try to report the news, they try to influence the news in the direction their bosses want and you should be ashamed!

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  13. Larry, MI

    Hillary still holds a commanding lead in the "Old Angry Broads" demographic.

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  14. Sean

    I'm glad to see the party starting to come together. I know that there are strong feelings for each candidate, but when it comes down to the real issues – like risking the lives of our young people by continuing the war in Iraq, or making sure the Supreme Court maintains it's balance so that past rulings like Roe vs. Wade don't get overturned making abortion illegal – then it's important we support the Democratic candidate, regardless of whether it's Clinton or Obama.

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  15. JERRY

    TO: Gayle May 20th, 2008 12:49 pm ET

    "No one asked me. Where are these polls coming from? I will never like him. I have no one to vote for this election if he gets the nomination"

    GAYLE YOU POST YOU HATE IN EVERY THREAD. WE HEAR YOU. YOU WON'T VOTE FOR OBAMA. BE GONE.

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  16. Debbie,NJ

    Some of you people on this blog and some of your friends are lying.
    They are telling you they won't vote for Obama but apparently somebody is voting for him because he remains in the lead. The delegates aren't the only ones switching over. But that's ok. This race isn't about Hillary or Obama anyway. Its about the Dem party taking the WH back. Be it thru Obama or Hillary. Let take our country back!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  17. Dre in Va

    Forgive me, but I'm a bit confused. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I recall in the beginning of this campaign that she had an overwhelming lead over him. I (being an african american male) was even leaning towards voting for her as was with so many others. After hearing both candidates position on things, I made an informed decision to vote for Obama. This was her race to LOSE and she did. She ran a horrible campaign. It was short sighted because she felt as though she would wrap it up quickly and in the mean time, he was prepared for the long haul. How can you support someone who is supposidlly ready on day one to run the country, when she couldn't even run an effective campaign? And now all the whining about things have really turned me off to her. There is no re-do, its over!

    May 20, 2008 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  18. John

    Time now for the Democrats to rally and unite around Obama. Hillary is a fine candidate but her campaign strategy failed her miserably. Obama's campaign team read the DNC rules, followed the DNC rules and ran a well organized campaign.

    Democrats who do not want to unite now basically wants another 4 years of Bush policies. No McBush!

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  19. Jim in Green Bay

    These cries of sexism are bogus. If anything, it's reverse sexism. The feminists are telling the women they need to vote for Hillary Clinton for no reason other than because she has ovaries. If I would have suggested that all men had to vote for Joe Biden because he has @#$%&'s, I can't begin to imagine the uproar.

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  20. Michael in Lortton, Virginia

    Polls are only the pulse of a nation in time of uncertainity.........however mathematics are forever........and they only express the nature of reality........it's over for Hillary.......and mathematics don't have a margin of error.

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  21. DJS

    This is one vote Obama is not getting.

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  22. Nancy

    Hilliary is just a big bag of wind. Blowing into whatever group she can align herself with and manipulate. She's for the hard working blue collar people but couldn't change a light bulb if she had to–but can tell you about auntie or uncle so and so who blah,,,blah...blah.....
    Hilliary is all about the wrong things in america, greed, money and lying. Go ahead elect her she will be easier for McCain the beat. Then she can really scream that the election has been "sexist" toward her.

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  23. Chris

    I read these post and am shocked by the things I read. People its a competetion someone has to lose and someone has to win. Democrats or so caught up in their candidates that they fail to realize whats most important change in the direction of our country. Most people hate Barack cause he is black and a lot will not vote for Clinton because she is a female but they both must have kknown this when they entered the race just look at the history of our leaders who they where.....

    ANYBODY BUT BUSH IN '08

    May 20, 2008 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  24. antonio glanville

    yes we can

    May 20, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
  25. Winkzilla, Tucson

    I am a 55 year old white male.
    I support Barack Obama because he has shown intelligence and understanding of the reality we live in. He has understanding that America shows it strength not by cowering away from problems, but by taking them on. He has demonstrated to me an understanding of the world we live in, domestically and internationally.
    I base my support for Barack Obama upon function and best fit for our need in our presidency. Race and gender means nothing. It never should be part of any equation to our measure of fitness to this job titled President.
    I do not want someone in that position that drinks beer and bowls with me. I want someone smart and insightful that can lead our nation to greatness that it can be. It has nothing to do about dismissing the Average Joe or Jane. I do not dismiss myself. Just like a surgeon, I do not want an Average Joe or Jane operating me, so why would I want an Average Joe or Jane heading my country. That makes no sense as it could only lead our nation to mediocrity.
    Therefore, race and gender plays no part, but intelligence and a grasp of reality are my measurements.
    away

    May 20, 2008 01:42 pm at 1:42 pm |
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