May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. isis dagmar

    Really, we shouldn't be talking to each other like the people who support the other candidate are the enemy. In fact, it shouldn't be a matter of enemies, it should just be a matter of recognizing that McCain, for all his good qualities, will be disastrous for this country, and that either Democrat, no matter how you feel about him or her, is a better alternative.

    Remember, guys: unity. I may be an Obama supporter, but I would vote for Clinton in a heartbeat if she won. If Obama wins, as seems likely, then I hope and expect that most or all Clinton supporters will do the same.

    May 20, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  2. The Virginian

    They're selling Hillary 08 merchandise half-price at Dulles and Ronald Reagan airports in DC. Yippee! She's not making history, she is history. Go Obama!

    May 20, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  3. HP Boston

    In your dreams.
    Women will NOT vote for OBAMA!

    ANYONE BUT OBMAMA ANYONE!

    May 20, 2008 01:44 pm at 1:44 pm |
  4. True Dem, Chicago, IL

    To all Clinton supporters, welcome aboard! Hillary fought hard and deserves MUCH credit!

    To the bitter ones, GOODBYE, WE DON’T NEED YOU! With our 50 state voter registration drive, we are building a new coalition of new voters, disaffected republicans and TRUE democrats! So-- GIT TO STEPPIN!!!

    Obama ’08 ALL THE WAY

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  5. Rob in Tennessee

    For some reason HRC supporters want to believe that CNN pulls this information out of thin air. Look at the last paragraph of the article:

    "Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point."

    See that word in there ... 'Gallup'? Gallup has been polling for about 70 years or so now. Gallup polls have been quickly quoted by the Clintonistas every time they have something good to say about their candidate.

    And remember, Clinton supporters. By voting for McCain, you're essentially voting to lock down a conservative Supreme Court for the rest of your lifetime.

    Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face ....

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  6. Tony C. - DC

    Like I've always said. 98% of Americans are apathetic, uneducated about the issues, lazy and follow the pack.

    Anyone for more Kool-Aid?

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  7. Robert

    Clinton continues to tell lie after lie. She claims "right now, more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent." Well, this morning I ran the numbers, here is the truth of the primary elections before todays vote.

    [Statistics Based on the 50 United States that have voted as of 5/19/08]

    Overall percentage of vote: Obama 49.28% Clinton 40.63
    Popular Vote (including Florida and Michigan): Obama 16,204,277 Clinton 16,105,062
    Pledged Delegates (from primaries only): Obama 1518 Clinton 1393
    Number of States Won: Obama 28 Clinton 19
    Number of States Won by greater than 60% of vote: Obama 16 Clinton 3 [Obama has 4 greater than 70%. The only state that Clinton won by greater than 90%, Obama was not on the ballot]
    Superdelegate Count: Obama 305 Clinton 277

    Based on these numbers, HOW CAN CLINTON CLAIM SHE IS WINNING IN ANY CATAGORY???

    The above are the simple facts of the election. It is time for Clinton to wake up and smell defeat!!

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  8. Jim in San Jose

    Clinton needs to put a fork in this campaign. It's done. It's over. I strongly disagree with Geraldine Ferraro. It's not that the country doesn't want a woman to be president, it doesn't want THIS woman to be president.

    Any woman who can run on the strength of her leadership powered by the depth of her integrity will win the white house easily.

    A woman who runs by trying to be a better "old boy" than the rest of the "old boys" will not. Fighters don't win, leaders win.

    I love the comment that it's not over under the lady in the pantsuit says it's over. That may be true, but the lady in the pantsuit isn't Clinton, it's Pelosi.

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  9. Gerry

    Looks like the democrats are starting to unite behind Obama's campaign.

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  10. J. Sully, New York

    Obama has the intelligence to win the presidency. He will outwit and out-debate John McCain. Hillary go back to the senate.

    GO OBAMA!!!! EIGHT YEARS!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  11. I like Hillary but lets get real

    Hillary has fought the good fight but it is time to unite behind the winner.
    I will not betray my fellow democrats because my candidate did not win.
    The idea is for a DEMOCRAT to win in November, not help the republicans. Senator Obama has been in the public eye long enough
    for any democrat to see that he doesn't bite, and a democrat is better
    than more of the same McBush policies that will surely not be in our
    interests. Tired of paying $4.00 for gas?

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  12. Bob

    To Obamarules,
    I have one question for you! Who's resonsible for getting the car(country) to the cliff in the first place? For over two hundred years there has been no minority or woman President!!!!1

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  13. Marlin Benedict, Florida

    Just look at what has happened to the once-conservative democrat party. Too bad!! But this is good for Sen McCain.

    May 20, 2008 01:45 pm at 1:45 pm |
  14. John Eze from Germany

    As Obama is about to Obamarize Clinton so will he also with ease Obamarize MCcain in November this year.

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  15. spencer

    Who cares about the polls, they have been wrong alot.. People don't care about polls..

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  16. ABOY

    First, Denial
    Second, Anger
    Third, Bargining
    Fourth, Acceptance

    Let's move on now!

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  17. shirley

    We Democrates need to pull together in order to get the Bush policies out of the White House. Vote for whomever is our Democratic candidate and put your personal prejudices aside, whether it is gender, race or religion. Those considerations have no place in politics.

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  18. Ruby, Kansas

    Told ya' it was over!

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  19. AnnForTruth

    I don't understand the reason my responses aren't being posted. I guess they aren't insulting enough. What a shame.

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  20. Ironman in CT

    To all of you so called democrats who will not vote for Obama, put on your sheets, aren't you late for your cross burnings?

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  21. Bill in Illinois

    David, Santa Rosa, CA at 12:49 has it right. It has been over for some time and it is sad that Hillary won't admit what she has to know in her heart. Now is the time to set aside all the bad feelings and heal the party.

    As an Independant I want nothing more than to see things change from the way they are now and I saw that hope in the Democratic party this time around but this has worn on me as I'm sure it has a number of others. They have to change and soon or the Democrats will lose one of the best opportunitys that any political party has ever had.

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  22. Mariann Pepitone

    If Hillary does not get the nomination she should play the game smarte than what she does. Hillary should tell the DNC if you don't seat the MI and FL delegates and give me the votes and delegates that I eaned I will then declare myself as an independent on the ticket. That would split the democrates making McCain the president and who cares if the democrats lose. I am a Hillary supporter but as long as Obama didn't win that would be the good news. I hope Bill Clinton gives her that advise. This is a dog eat dog campaign and Hillary should go for the bone.

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  23. Freddy

    Of course the polls show him gaining ground. Polls like everything else changes everyday. It really doesn't mean a thing. It doesn't change the fact that Obama isn't qualified to be the President of the United States. I wonder who is pulling his strings and bankrolling his campain. I see alot of back handed and back room deals being made.

    Let's get someone in there that "whoever" is really behind this campain that we can boss around. Obama will be the puppet...I wonder who is the puppeteer?

    May 20, 2008 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  24. Joey

    Oh Goodie! Another Poll for people to twist to make a point... can't put my finger on it but strange how remarks she made came to be part of the story about her polls, as if to imply she was wrong or something else...

    I don't understand how people can't let her run her campaign and let her supporters support her... Isn't that the patriotic and american thing to do? How many millions have voted for her and have done so because they believe (just as much as obama and mccain's supporters) that she's the best for the job and people are attacking her for staying in... she's doing justice to the millions of her supporters that have voted for her, why be so vicious?

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  25. Phong Nguyen

    It is called the bandwagon effect! The more you win the more supporters you will have!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
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