May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Dilly WA

    I believe this has as much to do with people getting to know Clinton as is does people getting to know Obama. So many women have told me they no longer support Clinton because of her manipulative and divisive manner matched with her lack of affinity for truth. Much of the "low income gap" may have to do with less access to cable news and other sources that, through no fault of their own , leave them less informed. Some people have to work so many hours there is no time left to learn more than sound bits. This makes people more easy targets of pandering and less likely to research. As time goes by we all become more aware. ALL OF US, not just one group or an other. And thank God some realize, even if they prefer Clinton, that the time is here that Dems must unite and vote for the canidate that is going to win the nomination. Obama. I would encourage those who still have doubts to read his books and web site.

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  2. JMN

    It's time for healing–time to resist demonizing. I am an Obama supporter, but I believe that the spirit of the Obama movement is a rejection of person-bashing. Hillary Clinton and John McCain are both dedicated, intelligent, valuable members of our democracy; even George W. Bush is. When we trash the other side, we "lose our bearings" (THIS, not age, is what Obama meant by that phrase).

    This positive attitude is not a corny let's-all-be-friends goody-goodiness; it's a difficult, brave discipline–and Obama supporters have "lost their bearings" as much as anyone. So let's work on this–let's expect respect and humanity from our nominees and from ourselves. The forces of negativity and cynicism are so strong in American politics–they have been at least since Watergate–that we're all tempted to go to the "dark side." But I'm convinced that Obama and McCain have emerged in their respective parties because they both have tried to resist this nastiness, and we have to help them keep their "bearings." At stake is nothing less than a civil American society.

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  3. Derek

    Both candidates competed fair and square. One had to come out the winner. I would have been happy with either as they are both qualified. The country is not going to go to pot, as some are suggesting, if Obama wins. If you haven't noticed, the last 8 yrs have already brought us there and may in fact get worse if McCain is elected. His recent statements show no demonstrable departure from the Bush policies.

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  4. Shaka

    Gayle, you said that you dont like the nominee and that you will never like him or even vote for him, well i tell you what, you better get used to it, the sonner the better, or you can move somewhere else to another country,

    OBAMA 08/12

    May 20, 2008 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  5. george

    Apparently, this poll did not include me. I'm not going to cast my vote for Obama period. McCain is a good man with experience. If it is not Hillary than it will be McCain. PERIOD!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  6. TIMTIM

    We need to unite so stop the bickering with the clinton clan. I am telling my obama friends on here to join forces with the clinton clan and we need to start attacking JOHN MCCAIN.

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  7. @americans

    Welcome home democrats!!

    But please leave Geraldine Ferraro, the racial bigot behind for the republicans!

    YES, WE CAN!

    YES, WE CAN UNITE!!

    and...

    YES, WE CAN trounce old hag john mcshame this fall!!!

    GO OBAMA!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  8. OBAMA...WINS!

    PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA.

    THAT SOUNDS SO GOOOOOOOOD!

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  9. Alexis

    Billary needs to get out of this race and do what is best for the party, not her own selfish agenda. Our country craves the new leadership that Obama can offer. Hillary would make a good Secretary of Labor.

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  10. Say no to McBush

    Obama is going to be a great President and it is time to unite this party. And more importantly defeat the politics of war and ineptness that has become the Republican way of late.

    May 20, 2008 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  11. Patricia in Las Vegas

    Gayle ~~ Bill Clinton himself said at the Nevada State Democratic Convention in Reno this past Saturday, that in November we all need to come together to put a Democrat in the White House, no matter which one it is.

    May 20, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  12. Crawford Robertson

    I totally agree with David from Santa Rosa, CA.

    Let's stop the baiting.... Republicans cannot be in power next year....

    I am british and cannot vote. I feel this country needs to establish itself as the power it was. The UN will be able to end the IRAQ war with dignity, when the US consults it and has a working relationship with it.

    Please talk to your enemy's, view your problems as you would teach your children.

    May 20, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  13. yns

    No one polled me... I am a well-educated woman with a family and I WILL NOT vote for Obama... shall I say why.... the list is too long and getting longer each day. I know there will be more skeletons coming out of the closet soon......... just wait and see.....

    Hillary 2008

    May 20, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  14. Mark

    I have analyzed the daily tracking polls if this company for a few months. The poll says that Obama is now the Democrats’ choice as nominee. The same company also has a daily general election tracking poll. When all people are surveyed regardless of party affiliation, Clinton performs better against McCain than Obama does against McCain. That trend has been steady. This leads me to believe that less people are identifying themselves as democrats. I am not sure why. Maybe it is Clinton’s fault for not giving up. Maybe it is Obama fault because of his policies or perceived flaws. Maybe it is because life long conservative democrats are losing faith because the party has moved to the left the last three elections. Regardless, this is a problem for all of us democrats.

    May 20, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  15. matt

    stop wasting your time hillary. people are sick of your lies and "fuzzy math"

    May 20, 2008 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  16. Robert Wiseman

    This result is mostly because the media have crowned Prince Obama as the winner. The voters in the primary states still seem to think that Ms. Clinton is a candidate and keep voting for her. The results this evening should be interesting.

    One wonders why, where the system provides for the decision to be made at a convention, everyone seems to want to act as though some other process is at work. I must not understand the purpose of a convention. I thought that the convention was to choose the candidate for president of the respective parties based on the delegates attending.

    Instead it seems that the the media get to declare these contests over and the American people, voting in primaries, don't count. Perhaps some other system of doing this such as letting the media make the choice based on poll results would be preferred. I don't think that is democracy, but what the heck.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  17. Jack Mpls

    Explains his Obama support.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  18. Mark K

    David of Santa Rosa has said what needs to be said. All Obama supporters should listen.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  19. Alexis

    Billary needs to get out of this race. Our country needs Obama's leadership right now. We don't need the same old tired politics the Clintons are offering.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  20. GERALD STROTHER

    Gallup Poll – Election News
    Key Clinton Constituencies Moving Toward Obama NEW May 20, 2008
    Barack Obama’s widening lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationwide brings with it important gains among Clinton’s core constituencies, including women, whites, and the non-college educated. Obama is now the overwhelming favorite among 18- to 29-year-olds, men, and postgraduates

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  21. kanani va

    you can all go on believing this media manipulated crap. obama is going to go down in a landslide in november and you will blame hillary, but it is really his fault for dividing this party. hillary is fighting on to reveal this fix for obama that has been on since the beginning. he steals all his proposals from clinton and people like me don't believe his branded messages. they mean crap to us and we will never fall for it...

    HILLARY 08 or MCCAIN 08 hell with the dem party they have screwed millions of us period.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  22. Ken

    It truly is a shame that the media does not give equal share of time to Hillary Clinton, as well as trying to convince people that Hillary's fight for the nominee is lost. IT IS NOT LOST!

    Regardless of the numbers, I still believe that Hillary Clinton is a stronger candidate who can beat McCain in November. Obama lacks the talent, skills, knowledge and experience to beat McCain in November.

    Why is the national media favoring Barack Hussein in their coverage? The "Polls" do not show a fair and unbiased reality.

    HILLARY CLINTON s the RIGHT CHOICE, as well as having the "Right Stuff" to beat McCain in November

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  23. Drew, Central FL

    More and more people are starting to see a connection with her and Rove. GOP so doesn't want Obama for President.

    Floridian for Obama.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  24. Jim

    . . . So much for the Republicans disguised as Democrats who always
    blog that they will vote for McCain if their candidate doesn't win.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  25. Austin from Bloomington IN

    I totally agree with David from Santa Rosa, CA.
    As a Black male and supporter of Obama, but long term fan of the Clintons, I was offended the way Hillary and Bill ran their campaign. But now I still have my respect and admiration for them. At this point Obama has not clinched the nomination no matter what anybody says. Hillary has every right to stay in the race as long as she keeps it positive. If Obama becomes the US Presdient come January '09, I'll love to see Hillary palying a major role. Obama has a lot to learn from the Clintons, just as he has a lot to fix of their mistakes. The Clinotns are still vital to the Democratic Party and the American politics. They may have ran some careless campaign, but that is also part of the game. Sometimes you calculate well and you win, other times you miscalculate and you lose.
    So please fellow Obama supporters, calm down, think before you join the bickering and bashing of Hillary and Bill. They deserve our respect for who they are. Could we draw a line from our political idol....? Let's play a politics that does not consist in tearing each other down, but in lifting America and Americans up. It's time for change, yet charity begins at home. We must be the change we want to see, says Gandhi.

    May 20, 2008 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
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