May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. fred

    This is the same poll you tried to push on us yesterday!!

    May 20, 2008 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  2. Pam

    Body language speaks volumes. Doesn't look like she's enjoying herself very much in that picture.

    May 20, 2008 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  3. Darryl

    Why do you cite national polls. You should do a state by state poll and determine who will win based on that. National polls have no bearing on who will actually be the next president, its about the Electoral college. You can sit here and talk about how Obama is winning 3% over McCain untill November and when he looses the presidency, all his supporters will wonder what happened.

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  4. Linda from Prescott

    Handwriting is on the wall.
    Walk out with dignity Hillary.

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  5. GCG - Austin, TX

    Polls are hard to discern, they can be manipulated in so many ways.

    The important take home is this: both candidates have campaigned hard and have run well, and now the Democratic party is beginning the all-important healing processing and rallying behind a single candidate for the fall election. The primary is just a preamble - the real prize, and critical path for the future of this country, is to take back the White House and keep the majority in both houses of Congress, and to build those into true working majorities. That's the goal. That's the end-game. Everything else is just window dressing.

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  6. Ind. Voter

    OBAMA CAN'T WAIT!

    OBAMA WILL CLAIM VICTORY PREMATURELY?

    This is the real OBAMA!

    Very Hungry!!!

    HE WANTS POWER!!!

    HE'S WILLING TO SACRIFICE ANYTHING (MI & FL ELECTORATE) JUST TO BE IN POWER!!!

    I WONDER WHY???

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  7. Sandra

    Wow, look at all the supers lining up for Obama! Now at 310 and counting.

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  8. JPK

    Go boy. Obama, please make this real.

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  9. mmartin arkansaw

    there's a change a comin'

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  10. Tim

    Enough with ratings CNN, Enough with the Obama and Clinton Supporters, and enough with letting the Republican bloggers pit us against each other. It's time for the party to unite and turn some of this agression where it belongs,on the Republicans!!!!

    Dem 08/12

    May 20, 2008 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  11. Chris, Middletown, CT

    Wheew.....finally we are coming together....

    I keep reading the comments from the Hillidiots...

    lets re-cap...(not that this will convince any of you – mind you)

    Hillary....no experience...only as first lady....no policy or cabinet meetings

    Hillary – less elected experience than Obama – she lived in Arkansas – and followed the Robert Kennedy route – and picked up and moved to NY – where they will elect anyone with a D after their name – she knew she could not win in her "home" state

    Hillary – supports NAFTA – and doesn't support NAFTA – how is that possible?

    Hillary – Universal Healthcare – that covers illegal aliens – at the same time supporting drivers licenses for illegals (yet now doesn't)

    HRC supporters – (especially those who make up all this nonsense about Obama) – we dislike lies....and distortions and "misspeaks"

    If you follow Hillary and believe in her message – then I can see you not supporting Obama....because his message is truth and common sense...something that is completely opposite of the spew Hillary spits out daily....thats why the Republicans would love to run against her....

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  12. Greg, NY

    See, now that's the type of scientific polling I like to see. When the margin of error is only 1% point in either direction, that is a good poll.

    I dislike the polls that have a plus or minus 3-5% margin, just leaves too much leeway.

    So, who's more electable now, Hillary?

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  13. Joe (Republican)

    IT'S OVER HILLIARY!

    JUST GO AWAY ALREADY AND TAKE YOUR STUPID
    SUPPORTERS WITH YOU!!!!!!!!!!!

    MCCAIN SCARES THE .... OUT OF ME, WE DON'T NEED WWIII
    THANK GOD FOR CHANGE. YES WE CAN! OBAMA '08!

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  14. God sent him

    Obama Will lead the polls post to post all the way to the November general election. There is no stopping him.

    We will have a Triple crown winner (Big Brown) after 30 years. We will have a Blak man as President for the first time in US history.

    GO GO GO GO GO Obama. Take a look over your shoulder after you enter the straight for home. You will see Mccarin some distance behind you.

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  15. Rachel

    we will see what happends in nov. This whole thing makes me ill. I am a moderate democrate and Obama is way too left for me. I have noone to vote for.

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  16. LifeLongDemocrat

    I don't for a minute believ that Hillary's support among older women is waning. Many older women believe that Obama will be the nominee and they are trying to talk themselves into this nominee NOT because they like him but that they do not see themselves voting for McCain.

    I personally have not been able to come around to Obama but see the futility in not voting or in writing in Hillary's name if Obama is the nominee.

    I am bothered as a Democrat by the fact that this late in the game the presumptive (said by some) nominee is not winning everywhere and that there seems to be no recognition of the impact and power and numbers of the Hillary supporters.

    Obama would do well to court the Hillary voters. His supporters on this blog are very disrespectful to the Hillary supporters, losing their candidate votes instead of encouraging people to vote for him. This hostility will ensure a McCain victory.

    Wake up Obama people. You are getting too cocky and will send people to the McCain camp. Don't do it!

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  17. James, Redlands, CA

    Obama supporters-
    How you win is just as important as how you loose.

    Leave Hilliary and her supporters alone.

    Blacks were more supportive of Hilliary at the begining of the process than Obama. It seems like FOX and a some white voters want to ignore that fact. Obama didn't get 70,80, 90% until Hilliary's remarks about MLK and Bill's remarks about SC. The Clinton's always enjoyed Black support as have ALL Democratic candidates.

    If they don't want to include the popular votes from the caucus states to make it seem like she has the popular vote, so be it. There have been enough permutations and analysis by now to verify that the only way she leads in the popular vote is to give her all of the votes from MI and FL and give Obama no votes from the caucus states.

    She is a proud woman/person who has served New York well. She also has served the country well with the exception of one key vote.

    Let her have her pride.

    But do not rip up the party and doom the country to more Justices like Alito and Roberts, continuation of our occupation of Iraq and the needless dying and maiming of our men and women in uniform just because the person you support is not going to win.

    Every millitary person and parent trying to decide who to vote for should look at what Obama wants the GI Bill to represent for our soldiers after they serve.

    Every parent who wants their child to have a better chance to live a better life than they did should look at what he wants to do for youth wanting to go to college.

    Every person who can't afford healthcare or adequate health care should look at what he wants to do to make it better.

    He hasn't been just words. But you have to be citizen and actually seek out the information you want to know. Mainstream media only wants to focus on the sensational crowds and the conflicts. Right wing media (FOX) only wants to focus on the negative because they know they have no chance if people really look at the things he wants for everyday woking people. They want those people to continue to vote against their own self interest so that the rich can keep getting richer.

    Wake up America. A new day is here. But you have to have the courage to step out on faith and then back your faith up with work to make sure our leaders follow through.

    Obama '08

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  18. Alan Boyer

    The rest of America is waking up to the new day in politics: we can only be stronger if we unite. A divided America is a weak America.

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  19. Former Obama Supporter

    If the media was fair and balanced, then the polls would be legitimate. Hillary's key supporters are giving up because the media is telling them to give up and join Obama. Obama supporters, don't you even think that you can use this new poll in you argument. Sorry, but this poll is flawed.

    May 20, 2008 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  20. Proud1of 26% in WV

    What have we said all along?Just because some voters favored Clinton over Obama in the primaries that is no sign that they wouldnot favor him over a republican opponent.Her final plea arguements are starting to go down the drain.Too Bad!!!

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  21. Casey

    I think America will ultimately decide that we must change the way America operates in the world and get behind Obama to win the general election.

    The angry saber-rattling ravings of a bitter, old man can only point out just how wrong-headed the Republican ideology has been and will be if there is a third Bush term under John McCain.

    It's time for a change. I, for one, can't wait. I can't wait to be proud of my country again, to be proud of my president, and to know that things are (in the words of The Postman) "getting better".

    Yes, We Can.

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  22. KE

    I've got a poll for you. You know what you can do with it, right?

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  23. Modern Monkey!!!!

    Good, I am glad that the Obama nation is growing by leaps and bounds!!! I think she gave it a good run, but her time has come and gone. I find it funny that she could not beat Obama, what makes her think she could be mcbush? Exactly! So now on to the big fight for Nov.

    I just wonder how anyone could vote for a repug in today's world. I know one thing; the repugs are NOT going to help our country. Did you see the John Mcbush sppech today on Cuba. It was the same old scare tactics....they are running a campaign FEAR and I for one will NOT buy that crap anymore.

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  24. Brian

    Billary is singing her swan song. Let's unite Dems... and take back this country in '08!!!

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  25. Joyce, CA

    YES! Finally thinking Americans are doing the right thing. Go Obama.

    I was watching Hillary in Kentucky yesterday and after taking a group picture, one of her supporters kissed her on the cheek. You should have seen how she coiled away. The look on her face was don't get too close. My husband looked at me and said "Okay, so she just wants their votes, not their kisses". It was pretty funny. I don't believe this woman for one second. She is not for the people and will never be for the people. Once you've made 109 million dollars, the people can go fly a kite.

    I'm giving an Obama fundraiser soon. A bunch of friends and I are planning an Obama dinner for twenty. It should be fun.

    Obama 08 and beyond.

    May 20, 2008 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
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