May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Deb

    I'm not sure who you polled but believe me when I say our support has not wavered!

    Keep believing your own Liberal Left slant on life!

    Come November you will see how wrong your bias was!

    Hillary 08

    May 20, 2008 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  2. Belle

    Right....keep spinning CNN....

    Look at Rove's Electoral Map....in a McCain/Clinton election there are ONLY 6 battle ground states, and Clinton leads McCain by 53 Electoral votes (259 C to 206 M)

    Of the 6 battleground states, 2 Clinton LEADS in and only needs MO to win. One, MI, is a tie.

    WITH OBAMA....there are 8 battleground states, but McCain leads Obama 238 to 221 in Electoral Votes. McCain leads in 5 of the 8 battleground states, and Colorado and Iowa WILL NOT give Obama the nomination. He HAS to win Ohio and MI...

    The states Clinton has spent time in??? The states NEEDED to win a General Election...no wonder the Republicans want to go against Obama. McCain would not have had a prayer against Clinton.

    But you keep spinning CNN....the 1261 people you poll, sure does represent all voters...remember your MAP...the blue collar voters NEEDED to win??? McCain has large margins there...and in the Rove scenario...McCain only needs to win MI and OH or OH and VA...states he is ahead in, or just OH and 3 other states he is ahead in...ND, NE and NM.

    May 20, 2008 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  3. IAMWMD

    Whah, Whah, Whah, Whah, hah. Break out the the baby bottle before the crying begins from the Clinton loyalist.

    May 20, 2008 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  4. Joe Regis

    Let settle this.

    Ok she has made her case.

    Hillary for V.P. and it is settled.

    She will not stop until she gets something.

    May 20, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  5. Chris from NY

    As a good Obama supporter this is a good sign. After all things are coming together for him. Hope all these excitements lasts into November election.

    May 20, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  6. THEOLA WALTIMYER

    COME NOV. I WILL VOTE FOR MY PARTY. BUT I WILL CAST MY VOTE FOR HILLARY, IF SHE IN NOT RUNNING. I WILL WRITE HER NAME IN. I WILLN'T VOTE FOR OBAMA, HE IS TO YOUNG, DON'T KNEW ENOUGHT TO RUN THIS COUNTRY, IN THESE TIME.
    OUR COUNTRY IS HURTING, IN ALL AREAS. WE NEED SOMEONE WHO KNOWS THERE WAY AROUND WASHINGTON. WHO HAS THE KNEW HOW TO GET THINGS DONE. WHO ISN'T GOING TO BE A CRY BABY WHEN THE OTHER PARTY SAY'S SOMETHING ABOUT THERE FAMILY. THIS NOV RACE IS GOING TO BE HARD AND A LOT OF NAME CALLING, SO WHO IS ON OUR TICKET BETTER GROW A TOUGHT SKIN.

    May 20, 2008 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  7. Diane, MS

    Don't worry about Hillary, I think McCain has a VP spot for her.

    May 20, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  8. Dr. J

    I think it is time to leave gracefully. HIllary Clinton blew her own chance to win this nomination. She hired the wrong people. She wasn't tech savvy like Obama. She depended on established money instead of asking the everyday people for money and she was so arrogant she thought this race would be over after Super Tuesday. She can not blame Obama for her shortcomings. He was just smarter and not only is he about change, he proved change worked by using it in his campaign and how he raised money. You have to give it to him, he out smarted Clinton. David (Obama) took down Goliath(Clinton Machine). When it all boils down, Hillary is an elitist and a good old girl Washington insider. She is politics as usual. Even with all of her "experience" she made mistakes that proved she is truly an amatuer.

    May 20, 2008 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  9. Pat Va

    A significant sign that my party of choice (Democratic) is beginning to unite for the fight thats looming ahead with McCain. I've had faith that our party would at some point unify for the common good of us all!

    Go Dems '08 (in every level of government)

    May 20, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  10. Viet Nam Vet

    Been listening to rush limplips Joseph Johnson?

    May 20, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  11. Uncle Sam

    Can the American people see through the hype of empty promises for change that Sen. Obama is delivering?

    Yes We Can!

    May 20, 2008 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  12. Marc

    I will never vote for Obama. He has no accomplishments and hasn't earned the right to run much less be president. I can't believe after 8 years of garbage, the best the Dems could come up with is this young man with a very questionable past.

    May 20, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  13. mik

    CNN please DON'T LIE

    May 20, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  14. mmartin arkansaw

    christine v needs a sedative

    May 20, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  15. THEOLA WALTIMYER

    GO HILLARY, WE ARE STILL WITH YOU ALL THE WAY TO NOV.

    May 20, 2008 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  16. independent voter

    No way will I ever for vote for an inexperienced, weak candidate.

    Leading our country is a BIG job!. Obama is all show and no substance. What a disaster it will be if he is elected.

    Democrats should be ashamed of themselves letting themselves be duped by a gifted orator, who has nothing else to offer. They will be in for a BIG letdown if he is elected.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  17. Tom

    Hey Clinton Supporter, i.e. Geraldine. If you're going to criticize somebody about a word they say, you should at least quote correctly.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  18. get with the program

    "Gayle May 20th, 2008 12:49 pm ET

    No one asked me. Where are these polls coming from? I will never like him. I have no one to vote for this election if he gets the nomination."

    What are you looking for in a candidate? maybe some of us can help.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  19. anon

    Cue the:

    "He can't win in November!!"

    and

    "If not Hillary, I'll vote for McCain!"

    in 5.....4.....3.....2.....1......

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  20. Raphael Tx

    Obama's solution for ending illegal immigration "Work With Mexico".
    This is straight from Obama's website.

    Obama is so out of touch with real issues affecting America.
    First of all if Obama knew anything about illegal immigration, he would know that their is more illegal immigrants coming from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Venezuela then their is from Mexico.
    Obama is stating that all illegal immigrants in this country are Mexican which is very insulting and a very elitist view. He has the same small minded views as the typical uninformed uneducated person who thinks everybody in America who has dark skin and speaks spanish is Mexican.
    Fellow Americans make sure you do your research before you vote for this smoke and mirror politician.Learn about the issues and do not fall for these eloquent speeches.

    Hispanics, for Hillary, if not Hillary Go McCain

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  21. Listen

    The evidence and testimony strongly suggested that Rich and his ex-wife Denise orchestrated a quiet campaign to persuade Clinton, calling on foreign heads of state and a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and hiring a lawyer with close personal ties to the president. Denise Rich made sure she had the president's ear: since 1993 she had given more than $1.3 million in various political contributions to Bill and Hillary, including $450,000 for the Clinton library in Arkansas. Congressional investigators want to know if Marc Rich was the secret–and illegal–source of that cash.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  22. Elly

    I am a Senator Obama supporter but I find it hard to comprehend
    why he did not campaign in west Virginia and Kentucky
    He may have been amazed at the support he might have received
    since he does so well when he connects with voters on a personal level
    that was a bad choice in my decision but perhaps there were other
    reasons no one is aware of
    anyway go
    Obama 08

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  23. Griff

    Obama! The man who bend's in a Breeze. You don't Bend in the Wind. You Bend 'With the Wind'.. Obama would bend in a Breeze...

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  24. Steve

    Let's face it, many people went into this campaign with a strong preference for one of the two Dems, and that has been demonstrated by all the harsh comments back and forth on these forums. But – other than thos hardcore Clinton supporters who swear they will NEVER vote for Obama, as the nomination becomes more certain, McCain will become the bigger enemy and fair-minded Democrats will move their support to Obama simply because the focus is on him for winning.

    These people want a Democrat in the White House, and once the battle is over, I think it is normal for polls to show a shift to the "presumptive winner" as the best shot for those folks to feel represented.

    I also believe that once reality hits Hillary and she gives it up, and the focus becomes the difference between the two platforms for the GE, we will see the same vitriole posted here between McCainites and Obamanuts. Other than the aforementioned folks who will sit home and pout if Hillary doesn't get coronated at the convention despite the voters, I think most Democrats will favor Obama and all this alleged division will subside.

    The trick is now for her – even if she insists upon campaigning – to not keep up the attacks for 2-3 more weeks and delay that unification. I sincerely hope that she does not plan a course to keep this going until the convention and try to steal the nomination by some new Clinton math. That, I believe, could ruin any Democratic chance at looking unified or organized.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  25. Mimi De La Cruz for OBAMA

    I AM STILL LOOKING FOR AN APOLOGY FROM HILLARY FOR

    HER SUPPORT OF THE 100 YEAR WAR.

    AND FROM BOTH, FOR THEIR DEPLORABLE & DIVISIVE

    RACIAL RHETORIC. THEY BEHAVED DISGRACEFULLY.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24