May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
11 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. Rus in St. Paul, MN

    You know, I really hate these polls.

    I hate seeing Americans disected out into groups like these. I hate the following speculation dividing us by these groups, stereotyping them, and using this divisive information for their own personal agenda or political advantage.

    We're never going to get over racism, sexism, etc... until we stop dividing the world by race, gender and everything else under the sun. We're human, we're always going to see differences in people, that is natural, but we don't have to provide data enforcing and creating stereotypes of people.

    May 20, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  2. Enlightened Voter

    Please explain to me how she is more electable in november, I'm dying to know?

    May 20, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  3. Belle

    PS
    You continued rude comments against Clinton will have this Democrat writing her name in November.

    May 20, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  4. paul

    Most voters believe the race is over for Hillary, and their attention is turning to November. What is important for Obama is to select a good VP who can close the gap he has with white working voters. Apparently race is a concern and certainly Repbulicans will use code words to exploid the backlash whites have when it comes to the 92% black vote Obama is getting. Frankly, race or gender should be the issue, but this is america and some people can't get beyond those two factors. What is important now is who can move our country forward, who can end this stupid war, and get our economy back on track. Four more years of Bush policy isn't a solution, and Obama needs to be more specific about how he wants to run this country.

    Clinton and Edwards were the best choices, but, we are down to a hopeful choice.

    May 20, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  5. AL

    I don't believe on poll. I don't think they are accurate.

    May 20, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  6. Mike-Maryland

    Ive been an Obama supporter for a long time, but it is really relieving to see that both sides will eventually support the nominee from the party with the strongest ideas for the future. I would have been disappointed if Obama didnt win, but I still would not have switched to McCain.
    If people truly believed in the principles of both Hillary and Obama, it should be a no-brainer come November.

    May 20, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  7. Wh., blue-collar, unemployed, semi-educated WOMAN 4 Obama

    You go, Sr. USAF Ariman!!! This is EXACTLY what we've been telling the so called "pundits" all along: Obama supporters aren't part of a specific "cookie-cutter" group! We are one, and ALLl! We are AMERICANS desparate for a change of guard! We NEED a change of "politics-as-usual" that are clearly represented by the political track records of McCain & Clinton!

    They don't call this GREAT Nation the "melting pot"/"salad bowl" for nothin'!!! 'Rack on, Amercia!! Change is in the air!

    Obama + Change 4 ALL Americans – '80/12

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  8. Goodnight, Hillary !

    ...as HILLARIous once said, " The Tide is Turning"...hehe.

    U-ROCK OBAMA 08'/12' !!!

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  9. Politico

    This weakens Clinton's argument tremendously. It's clear that the myth that all of her supporters will fail to back a Democratic ticket if Obama's name is at the top doesn't hold water.

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  10. Ed

    Pple ! Let just let the race run full course , so Hillary can save some face and negotiate to get her debts paid too ....

    Democrats will unite and go for the W/H and Clinton will be a powerful woman in the Cabinet.....

    YES WE CAN DEMOCRATS and YES WE WILL

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  11. Tjaye

    Alright! I am going with my fellow Cali residents. I will no longer diss HRC. No matter what! I don't agree with her, but I once supported her, until recently. However, it IS time for healing. No need to rub salt in the wounds. Regardless, this has been the most exciting election in ages (and in my lifetime). I am making the vow to follow the example of our future president and rise above the fray.

    I am very happy Obama will take the nomination! And that is all I will say on that matter.

    Obama O-8!

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  12. Dallas, TX

    I guess I need to know why all these people support Obama. I just don't see any substance.

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  13. stephen in Oklahoma

    I have been a Obama supporter throughout this historic debate! We all owe Clinton a thank you for making this race exciting. She is playing hard. Isn't that what we want in our democracy? I love her ambition. She has made Obama a better candidate.

    Now its time to debate McCain on the issues. It is time to show america who is fighting for them.

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  14. Adam, Los Angeles

    I just want to encourage other bloggers to not let the relatively small differences between Clinton and Obama trump the enormous short-comings and disasters of the failed policies of the Republican Party.

    Look at it this way:

    You can vote for someone who perhaps personally you don't care for, but shares the same principals and policies as you;

    Or you can vote for someone that you know without a doubt will work against your interest and continues to implement failed policies.

    American First
    Democrat Second
    Candidate Supporter Third

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  15. JC

    It's lovely to see the Clintons so close to each other.
    But no more Clinton or Bush!

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  16. C

    Bye Bye Hillary, you now may retired those bad PANT SUITS

    May 20, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  17. The Lone Ranger

    It's not unexpected that her base voters are deserting her.She has gone from a sure thing to a nothing. Done great damage to her image and Clinton name.You can't put all your warts on display, and expect people not to notice.

    May 20, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  18. DON'T BELIEVE THIS POLL!!!!!!

    Just another attempt by CNN to try and make it seem like Hillary is losing ground. I say BS!! Just slightly more than half of the people who have voted for the Democratic candidates support Hillary. If anyone is losing ground, it's Obama given his 40 percent thumping in W. Virginia. Wait until the Kentucky results come in tonight. Even Obama knows he won't win there which is why he is blaming Fox News even before the voters have hit the ballot booths. Obama barely campaigned in W. Virginia and in Kentucky which goes to show you he doesn't even care. But, if he were to win the nomination, God help us if he does rob Hillary and Americans of it, he will try to campaign in those states, as well as FL and MI, and tell them he NOW cares and needs their votes. I guess because we are typical white people, blue collar, average working Joes, Obama thinks we will be stupid enough to believe that he cares. Obama needs to leave this race. He has more to destroy the Democratic Party than anyone in history.

    May 20, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  19. Debby

    Shelly in ILL.: I agree CNN never puts if its hundreds or millions behind those poll numbers hahaha. If its 12 or 54 hundred Dems. thatn isn't even hitting a fraction mark of voters all over the US.

    May 20, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  20. Jai in PA

    These are great signs that the Democratic Party will be able to unite. As a Clinton supporter, I am disappointed, but will support Obama in November. It is sad that some Democrats will not support the Party if their candidate is not the nominee, but everyone must make an individual choice. We, as Democrats, can't make judgements on motives. A decision not to support Clinton is not necessarily sexism and a decision not to support Obama is not necessarily racism – the name calling must stop and we must unite and try to bring the disgruntled along too.

    May 20, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  21. jmarie

    I am Female, >50, Registered Republican, and will strongly consider Obama over McCain. Will not consider Clinton over McCain.

    This is not sexism, this is simply who I trust. Ferraro did further damage to women's goals on The Today Show this morning. Media has not been sexist, Clinton has just run a tacky, shrill, lies-packed campaign. (Just watching her change the rules of counting makes me laugh, albeit sadly).

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  22. nowlin

    Now! Our country is awaking So let's be strong.

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  23. nj voter

    nate May 20th, 2008 12:53 pm ET

    Do you know your alphabet? Here are four of the letters: O V E R. Got it?

    I see R. O.V. E her new media consultant but your right it's O.V.E.R.

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  24. Helene

    It is no surprise to me. I am absolutely dumbfounded by HRC's complaints of sexism in this campaign, when she had the audacity to raise the race card so shamefully ! Obama is the true uniter. And I am a white 50+ woman and I am happy to vote for him.

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  25. Lindsay

    Why not wait until after May 31 when Michigan and Florida are back in play? Why does the media insist on demonizing Clinton?

    The misdirection of the media early on, the ignorance and Clinton-bashing by Obama fans and the sheer cult-like following the man has gathered guarantees he will not receive my vote. I have never voted Republican in my life, and now I'm almost being forced to do so (because essentially not voting or voting for a third party will be a vote for McCain, who I'm likely to just vote for anyway to guarantee that Obama doesn't get in the White House).

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
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