May 20th, 2008
01:40 PM ET
12 years ago

Poll: Obama gaining support with key Clinton demographics

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

Sen. Clinton was introduced by her husband at a campaign event in Louisville, Kentucky Monday.

(CNN) – A day after Sen. Hillary Clinton declared that the Democratic nomination fight was “nowhere near over,” polling data released Tuesday suggest Clinton is losing ground with key demographic groups that have powered her campaign so far.

Sen. Barack Obama’s 16-point lead over Clinton in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters comes from even higher support among groups that have been supporting him throughout the primary race, and from newfound support among several groups that have backed Clinton.

Obama leads or ties Clinton among women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics, with the New York senator’s support now below 50 percent in each group, according to Gallup. Both are backed by 47 percent of white voters surveyed, and Obama is essentially tied with Clinton – 47 percent to 46 percent – among Democrats whose education level is a high school diploma or less.

Clinton’s advantage among women overall seems to have evaporated, with Obama now holding a lead within the survey’s three point margin of error, 49 percent to 46 percent. Hispanics favor Obama over Clinton by 7 percentage points, 51 percent to 44 percent. And Obama now leads among voters in Eastern states by 9 percentage points over Clinton – 52 percent to 43 percent.

Clinton’s standing with whites has fallen by five percentage points during the month of May. With Hispanics, Clinton has lost eight percentage points in the same time period. Clinton’s support with Easterners has fallen by seven percentage points and with women, Clinton has last four percentage points in May. Women age 50 or older is the only major demographic group where a majority, 52 percent, still support the New York senator.

Obama’s support among voters with postgraduate education, voters with monthly incomes of at least $5000, and men – has grown to the point that, he now leads Clinton by a margin of 2-to-1. Among voters 29 or younger, Obama leads Clinton by a margin of nearly 3-to-1.

Gallup’s results released Tuesday are based on a survey of 1,261 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters using combined data from May 16-18, 2008. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Gallup’s May 1-13 daily tracking poll results are based on a survey of 5,474 Democratic or Democratic-leaning voters. The May 1-13 survey results have a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage point.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • Hillary Clinton • Polls
soundoff (600 Responses)
  1. New Politics

    Why are so many of you disliking Sen. Obama? He ran a good campaign and the America voters voted for him. Let's be honest his campaigning has been quite honest. Now, my problem with the Sen. Clinton campaign has been changing the rules to win. I was a Clinton supporter and a great fan of former president Clinton. But I have a problem when you agree to not allow Fla. and Mich. till you need them and now you she disregards the people choice in caucus states. This is what we have experienced for 8 years a president to do and say whatever to make themselves right.

    May 20, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  2. georgia

    Family togetherness ?? lol
    Monica, Jennifer, Paula, etc,etc,etc....lol
    Bosnia,Whitewater,NAFTA,cattle,etc,etc,etc...
    The lies that bind.

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  3. David, Newport OR

    For those that keep saying they will vote for someone else or not vote at all if Obama is nominated...I ask this...isn't it nice having that option? Go ahead and shoot yourself in the foot. We believe in giving you that right. In the long run, only you will look foolish.

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  4. Ian

    This is completely uneccessary. What a joke the election process has become.

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  5. CWatson

    More evidence that it's pretty much over for everyone except Hillary, Wolfson and McAuliffe

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  6. Griff

    Hillary should go Indipendent, and take most of these Vote's with her... Ther's no way, Obama would get them.... It's Hillary! Or the Pillary, for the Dem's....

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  7. Former Political Strategist

    Yeah, Joseph, because Kentucky is a great example of the American electorate. That's why when driving to visit my folks in Illinois my wife and I try "not" to stop in Kentucky. Obama will win in November because to elect John McCain means to elect a Lame Duck president, and nothing gets done during a Lame Duck presidency...unless you wanna tell me that people will vote for McCain when he's 76.

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  8. Fredi

    For all those who flasely claim that the "Florida primary went heavily for Clinton" – here are the facts:

    Clinton 50%, Obama 33%, Edwards 14% that is a 3% edge for Clinton over Obama/Edwards or a "heavy" 6 delegates!

    May 20, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  9. BJWL, Pittsburgh

    More fuel for the Obama fantasy. The national polls have been moving against Clinton for months from the aggressive anti-Clinton bashing in the national media. It's the state-by-state that actually matters. tWhere the candidates are actually campaigning, Clinton has been beating Obama consistently, taking 6 of 8 primaries since March, including the biggest swing states. Obama is an anvil that will drown us is the fall.

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  10. Brian, RI

    A Democrat in the White House 08!

    (preferably Obama)

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  11. l. tounza

    we dont believe any of that.
    if she was losing traction why hasnt it shown up in KY and why has the gap narrowed form double digits for obama to 5 points in OREGON?

    sounds like a "NEWSWEEK" POLL of convenience to me.

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  12. AJ

    Any idiot that can read an electoral map can see that the empty, ego in a suit that is Obama cannot win the GE. CNN can post day after day after day these national polls that show him taking support from Senator Clinton. It won’t matter in November. White adults will then take over the election without making their choice based on race or pie in the sky dreams. The black vote will be diluted, the college kids will be overwhelmed by adults who actually care about this nation, and Obama will be defeated. Unfortunately, it will result in another 4 years of a Republican presidency. I will jump party lines and vote for McCain and urge all Clinton supporters to do the same. Obama is a disaster for the democratic party.

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  13. Truth

    OBAMA all the WAY !!! We need someone that will bring this country and world together as one!!! Our world is spinning out of country....and we're all running out of time !!

    PEACE and STABILITY is a MUST !!!

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  14. Al

    From headlines 2011: "President Obama: middle of first term", "Clinton says: it is far from over"...

    Obama 2008

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  15. Zinth

    Obama supporters stop hitting Hillary. She is trying to end this mystifyingly. Thats good for obama too. Every time Clinton says don't vote for MaCain its hundreds of votes coming to obama on november

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  16. GC from Virginia

    I've been reading these threads for months, and have remained silent. But I can't anymore.

    Let me preface this by saying that I'm an Obama supporter. I have many friends who are avid Clinton supports. But we all agree that whichever Democrat wins the nomination is the better choice in the General.

    Now – I find the suggestion that Hillary supporters should vote for McCain in the General Election absolutely repugnant. Absolutely repugnant and absolutely irresponsible. I understand the arguments. Some "McCainocrats " are obviously racists, and just cannot vote for a black man. The polls and media coverage from WV made that clear. But I believe they represent a minority among McCainocrat demographics. There is another group that simply believes Obama is not experienced enough to lead the country. There may be some truth to that, and if these voters compare policies and personalities between the two and decide they prefer McCain, then so be it. That is their prerogative, and they're making an informed decision. That's what democracy is all about.

    But then there is a group that thinks Hillary was the victim of overt misogyny and bias from the media and the voting public, and refuse to vote for Obama because they think putting McCain in office will "teach the Dean DNC a lesson." I have a bigger problem with this approach than with those who are simply racists. At least the racists have an excuse – ignorance. But the latter group does not. They are voting purely out of spite and selfishness. Spite because their candidate did not win. Selfishness because they believe their personal interests in having Hillary as President carries more weight than the majority of voters across the country who prefer Obama. Under a McCain Administration, more men and women WILL DIE in Irag, gas prices WILL go up, more people WILL lose their homes, women WILL lose their right to vote, and our foreign policy WILL enable Iran further. But this latter group of McCainocrats don't care. They think that their right to have Hillary as President is more important than all the rights that will be taken away or limited by four more years of the GOP. They think that because they and Hillary were persecuted (which is certainly true to some extent), then the rest of the country should suffer. This is selfishness in the utmost. And it is utterly repugnant. I implore one of these McCainocrats to provide one substantive reason why Hillary supporters should vote for McCain. Just one.

    May 20, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  17. Alexis

    to all you hillary supporters, who are just claiming to be a DEM!!! and saying you will not vote for obama, but rather vote for Mc Cain. Fine, Vote on, and then when oil hits a all time High of 200 a barrell, i better not see any of you writing on here any of your complaints, all i am going to say is OH WELL, write MC CAIN, and see if he cares!!!!

    May 20, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  18. Paul

    No surprise. In the end, it all depends on character.

    May 20, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  19. Tone

    Her staying in the race is bout like a football game when the other team is down by 4 touchdowns with a minute left to play and they keep calling timeouts, spiking the ball, doing onside kicks, trying 79yd field goals or like a basketball game where the other team is down by 25pts, already in the bonus, best players have long since fouled out but they keep on fouling instead of just letting the clock run out.

    May 20, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  20. anna

    The media bashes Clinton on a daily basis. The old Democrat leaders call for her to get out. the party has disallowed the certified votes in Michigan and Florida. CNN and other media talking heads slant all the news about her in a negative way . . .and now, I wouldn't be at all surprised if someone that someone has tampered with the polling results. At this point, I trust no one. All I know is that the blogs are full of former democrat deciding to vote for McCain over Obama and of many of us working for a write-in vote for Clinton. This election is far from over!

    May 20, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  21. Fredi

    I reject your reality and substitue my own

    May 20, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  22. demoungrate

    He will not win in general election Hillary supporters are so BITTER by now, thet will not vote for him.

    Keep up the good hate Obama supporters.

    May 20, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  23. Gigi

    The best that can happen to Hillary is to finally to get out of the race, and the only way for her to this is by loosing. It's like having a family member on life support, artificially fed, and all the while knowing that the end is inevitable, that whatever life there is artificial, thus making it painful for the patient and for the family as well, because the longer, the more painful it gets, this is literally and analogically "agony". We all wish her well in her future endeavor, and remember that running for office does not mean getting elected, good luck as a senator, and next time it'll be better.

    May 20, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  24. Texas Trail Dog

    HEY MARY ARE YOU REALLY THAT STUPID – The states you quotedrecacus states. Wait until November to see the real figures from these states. THAT'S WHEN YOU WILL SEE THE POPULAR VOTE. I am so sick of you Obama people yelling Obama has won so many state. IA cacus no one really wins that state. The people havn't voted only a percentage. If it wasn't for DEAN and PELOSI sitting this election up in such a ridiculous manner HILLARY would have this nomination wrapped up already. A caucus is where people that get in line to have their votes counted. You know how some people are these days and times you can't get in the room because of rude obnoxious vulgar mouthed people pushing you out of the way. If and I said If Obama gets the nomination he will never win the general election. SUPER DELEGATES YOU BETTER TAKE HEED THERE IS A CHANGE GOING ON OUT HERE AND IT'S NOT THE ONE YOU'RE GOING TO LIKE. ALL US HILLARY FOLLOWERS WILL VOTE JOHN McCAIN IF OBAMA GETS THE NOMINATION.

    May 20, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  25. Kiki in DC

    I guess Hillary supporters would say this poll does not matter. But it matter when Clinton is ahead of Obama in the polls.

    Since it so many Obama bashers on here how about you do one thing. Donate to Hillary campiagn to help her get out of debt. That's is about all you can do at this point. If you are a so called die hard Hillary supporters you would have supported her in the begining she would not be in debt now. Shut up and pay up.....................

    Hillary supporters are just like the weather, you change up in a minute.

    Then people get on here and say please stop being mean to Billary supporters, Well they need to grow tough skin just like Billary is suppose to have. Practice what you preach!!!!!!!!!!! So being so sensitive!

    May 20, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
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