June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
7 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.
A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.

(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. B&B in NV for Obama

    Let's also hope that those who THINK he will win are also among the number planning to vote for him. I have images of these older folks saying "yeah, probably he will win" but they still plan to vote for McCain or not vote at all.
    Obama '08 & '12!

    June 16, 2008 01:08 pm at 1:08 pm |
  2. Abdi, A

    Why Obama should win in November and McSame should loose? because, the only solution that McCain is offering is to stay in the course no matter how terrible it is. He agrees 99% with Bush and his failed politics and feer. Therefore, Obama should and will win in November since he is offering a different solution to our problems.

    Go Obama 08/12

    June 16, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  3. CNN

    There you go again with your propoganda about Polls. I am sure they say no such thing. Stop trying to promote Obama – its not working – at least no for the smart people anyway.

    June 16, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  4. For Obama /no hillary vp

    The Obama wheels are just starting to turn soon full speed ahead for our candidate this will be the largest movement ever witnessed in an election .

    Change we can believe in all the way to the Oval Office.

    Obama "yes we can" 2008/2012

    June 16, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  5. EMJ

    Ever notice Obama and his supporters have an optomistic view of life and what can be done while Republicans and still out there Clinton supporters are nothing but negative? I'm not talking about being niave, just that all Clinton did basically the final half of her campaign is attack, twist words, place on race and economic status and the Repubs are just picking up where she left off. Take 'Beth' from Florida and her comment that America will become the land of affirmative action i.e. a very slightly hidden racist comment that shows her resentment of minorities and the need for affirmative action. On the other hand Obama and company want to focus on makijng America great again and finally, yes finally, have some true equality in this country. I guess trying to make life a level playing field for minorities so they can prosper too is too anti-America for Beth.

    June 16, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  6. OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT

    Everyone Knows Mccain Is Going Down In November! He Doesnt Have A Chance! He Is The Weakest Of All The Republican Candidates! The Obama Change Bus Is Going To Roll Over Him!

    June 16, 2008 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  7. Cynthia

    You tell them Big Ed! Those of us who have never been involved in a war need to know the truth of how it is.

    June 16, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  8. Jorge

    Who cares a bout this poll!! Does it matter!!!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  9. arc, Lugano CH

    If America was truly the land of opportunity, one would not 'fear' affirmative action as a threat to their birthright. One would not use that term and others like 'elitism', 'his middle name is Hussein', ‘his pastor who isn’t running for President said things in a strategic sound byte’ to hide one’s character and one’s beliefs.
    Hopefully this is a dawn of a new day for most Americans…and the dusk of a few.

    June 16, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  10. carlo

    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh-don't tell the McCain supporters. It's quiet in here.

    June 16, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  11. Ben

    While I do think that McCain is better than Bush, I think that Obama is the better candidate.

    June 16, 2008 01:10 pm at 1:10 pm |
  12. FactCheck

    It's not a popularity contest people. Just look at the platforms that the two candidates are running on and the differences couldn't be more obvious. If you are really rich (making more than $250,000), don't have to worry about socialized healthcare or are pro-life, McCain is your man. If you make less than $250,000, need socialized healthcare or are pro-choice, Obama is the candidate for you. It ain't that hard folks.

    June 16, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  13. alpha

    regardless of his race,color or bacground, obama has demonstrated the cousre of opportunity for all. The whole world believs that obama can be A leader whose foreign policy would not only suit america but creates avenue for world harmony.
    OBAMA 08!

    June 16, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  14. Kathy in Oregon

    Polling people's "perceptions" of who they think will win? This is the most MEANINGLESS poll...it in no way reflects how the people INTEND to vote.

    Based on the overwhelmingly positive media spin in favor of Obama, I too would say "I THINK" Obama will win - he's the "favorite".

    However I have ZERO intention of voting for Obama.

    So come November the Obama camp might be in for a BIG surprise.

    June 16, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  15. I AM NOW AN INDEPENDENT!*********

    CNN IS WORKING HARD TO INSURE THAT OBAMA WINS.

    WHY DIDN'T ALL THE PEOPLE RUN TO OBAMA'S CAMP AFTER THE NOMINATION?

    BECAUSE THEY DO NOT TRUST HIM, OR HAVE CONFIDENCE IN HIS ABILITY TO LEAD!

    HILLARY WON ALL THE STATES NEEDED TO WIN IN NOVEMBER, WHY WOULD THESE PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR MINDS NOW?

    THEY ARE SO DISAPPOINTED IN HIS NOMINATION THAT A LOT WILL VOTE FOR McCAIN!

    I WILL NOT VOTE FOR EITHER, I DID NOT VOTE FOR BUSH AND I WILL NOT VOTE FOR SOMEONE THAT I THINK IS WRONG FOR AMERICA!

    June 16, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  16. James

    I have seen where some of you Hillary fans will not vote for Obama and vote for McCain, well if you are that stupid to think that you are hurting obama think again, Obama will not suffer,he has plenty of money, you and me are the ones that will suffer,with another 4 years of george bush if McCain is elected.So get over the Hillary thing and act as grown ups and not kids and lets get a Demacrat president back in the Whitehouse. Don`t be fools and end up hurting yourselfs and families.
    Vote Obama and give the man a chance to see what he can do.
    We already know what McCain is going to do , the same as George Bush--

    June 16, 2008 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  17. Where are???

    And here comes the man hating femi-nazi and racist. Come on you know you want to belittle anyone that doesn't think or look like you. Have at it.

    Personally I hope Obama does win so all these freak women and racist will move out of the country. You aren't welcome anymore anyway, leave now and safe us the time.

    June 16, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  18. too far left

    Of course... the true competion was HRC. Hillary was the best qualified and the most capable leader. Obama's job was trashing her to get her out of the race. With the help of the biased media and the corrupt rules and actions of the DNC- Obama was enabled in eliminating the BEST candidate. So now he appears to be pretty good compared to McCain.

    SEE? Perception is everything. In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

    McCain? still a threat. But WE lose- Neither one remaining is going to be a great president.

    But I would wait and see what happens.

    June 16, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  19. Frank

    And we thought affirmative action had limits! I guess it even applies to selecting a President for our country! Very very sad; this will haunt the African American community for the next many decades. This however would not have been viewed as affirmative action if this Obama guy had some experience and capabilities to be the President! Very sad for our country!!!! :-(

    June 16, 2008 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  20. New Day

    hahaha

    Beth – Florida: You lived through 7 years of Bush (mainly due to Florida incompetence in the voting booth) and you think that Obama is the begining of the end?

    Well, Florida gave us the "dimpled" chad, the "pregnant" chad, and the "hanging" chad. Now, Beth has given us the pleasure of seeing a "clueless" chad. Thanks Beth.

    June 16, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  21. McCain Supporter

    If you don't like it, Beth, GET OUT.

    June 16, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  22. Michael Lorton. Virginia

    Of course he will. The more the campaign goes on with McCain, the more he resembles Yoda with a tie.

    June 16, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  23. EDW

    The 20-to 30 years old crowd usually don't use landline phone numbers, because it is costly and we're usually at work. If they really wanted accurate numbers they would find other means to reach our demographic. They haven't called people on their cell numbers.

    June 16, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  24. Helena

    Yes, I believe Barack Obama will win by a landslide.

    It will be great to have a smart, honest and person of integrity as our President.

    June 16, 2008 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  25. allmymarbles

    Forget the polls. Look to gambling odds. As of today, Obam will win easily.

    June 16, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
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