June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
6 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.
A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.

(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. David Goldman for OBAMA

    THOSE OF YOU THAT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH

    RACE, SHOULD THINK OF IT THIS WAY.

    WOULD THE COLOR OF AN INDIVIDUAL MATTER IF

    YOUR CHILD WAS DROWNING & HE CAN SAVE

    YOUR MOST PRECIOUS THING IN THIS WORLD.

    SAFE TO SAY THE ANSWER WOULD BE, NO. JUST

    GET MY CHILD OUT OF THAT WATER. NOW FOLKS

    ALL OUR CHILDREN ARE IN FINANCIAL, & PHYSICAL

    PERIL AS LONG AS WE CONTINUE WITH THESE INSANE

    POLICIES. IF THE COLOR BOTHERS YOU THAT MUCH,

    CLOSE YOUR EYES & PRES THAT BUTTON & DON'T TELL

    ANY OF YOUR HYPOCRITICAL FRIENDS YOU VOTED FOR

    OBAMA.

    June 16, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  2. Maybe I'm amazed

    The contrast between young and old
    Great orator and average speaker
    Vibrant and aging

    BUT in the voting booth... COUNTRY will come first...

    Obama is too socialist for most Americans to embrace.

    June 16, 2008 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  3. Lynn

    Lord help us all if the polls are right.

    June 16, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  4. Carl LaFerney

    The problems are this...

    The Republicans had a great candidate in RON PAUL, and they blew it big time...

    The Democrats have the easist road to the White House in history, and they are close to blowing it with Obama.

    either way, these candidates are not worthy IMO...

    June 16, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  5. OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT

    Lets All Take A And Breath And Say It Out Loud! . . . . . YES WE CAN!

    June 16, 2008 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  6. 58 old white ladies for OBAMA

    THE CHOICE IS SIMPLE.

    AN INTELLIGENT MAN THAT LOVES ALL OF US,

    OR A GERIATRIC VERSION OF GEORGE BUSH.

    YOUR PICK, AMERICA.

    June 16, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  7. why bother with voting

    Media is already trying to create the illusion of strength for Obama.

    The media knows all about self-fulling prophecy.

    All they need to do is convince people that Obama is inevitable and that is MOST of the battle.

    You all saw how the media selected the democratic nominee. Now the media is starting to select your president.

    June 16, 2008 01:16 pm at 1:16 pm |
  8. Peter

    I'm not surprised but disappointed in the amount of anti-Obama stuff I see here. I supported Edwards and still think he would have been the best president. When he dropped out I voted for Hillary in the California primary because I thought she has the most relevant experience. Now that it is down to Obama vs. McCain, it isn't even a tough choice. Eight years of failed foreign policy, failed economic policy, failed environmental policy, etc., etc., etc. are all I need to reflect on when McCain says he wants to continue most of the current policies. I admired McCain in 2000 when he was actually somewhat of a maverick. Now that he has bent his message so Rush, Hannity, and Ann Coulter will support him, he has lost the little bit of credibility he had.

    June 16, 2008 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  9. OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT

    * A LANDSLIDE VICTORY FOR OBAMA YOU CAN BELIEVE IN! *

    June 16, 2008 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  10. multitaskin

    SEEMS CNN HAS ENDORSED OBAMA FOR PRES. MCCAIN DOESNT GET NEARLY THE AIR TIME OBAMA GETS. AND THE WINNER IS.............WELL WHO EVER GETS THE MOST SUPPORT BE IT GROUPIES OR COLD HARD CASH. THE GENERAL POPULATION OF AMERICA IS SO BUSY WITH LIVING IN SCARY DIFFICULT TIME THAT ANY CHANGE IS A GOOD CHANGE. SOME FOLKS ONLY WANT A PRESIDENT THATS UNRELIGIOUS AND ONLY LIKES FOLKS THAT LOOK LIKE THEM. WHERE HAVE I HEARD THAT BEFORE????? ANYHOW THE SCRAPING THE BOTTOM OF THE BARRELL CHOICES WE HAVE IN REAL LEADERSHIP ABILITY REMINDS ME OF THE BEANNIE BABY CRAZE A FEW YEARS AGO. ONE WAS MOST POPULAR AND VALUABLE AND ANOTHER WASNT. NOW WHO KNOWS WHAT A BEANNIE BABY IS NOT TO MENTION ALL THE INVESTMENT OF TIME AND MONEY IN THE FIRST PLACE. YOU KNOW LIKE THESE CANDIDATES........A SORT OF BEANNIE BABY BUBBLE..... YEAH, ONLY EVERYBODY PAYS WHEN IT BURSTS. WILL THE REAL " ABLE" LEADER OF THE FREE WORLD PLEASE STEP FORWARD. GOD HELP AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    PS IM AN AMERICAN FIRST WITH NO OTHER CONSIDERATION FOR OTHER RACIAL DESIGNATION. IT WOULD DO YOU DIVISIONARIES GOODTO TRY BEING JUST AMERICAN NOTHING MORE OR LESS. BUT WITH OBAMA LESS IS BETTER...RIGHT?!?

    June 16, 2008 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  11. DaTruth

    @ Betsy,

    The real sad thing is that due to people like you affirmative action was created in the first place. Also ironically, a President Obama could be a nail in the coffin for affirmative action because it would prove that the big majority of US citizens have finally learned to see past the color of the skin. No more of Bush failed policies, Obama in '08!

    June 16, 2008 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  12. The Bush Twins : George and John

    I just can't see how McCain has any chance of winning the GE. The American people are tired of what the Bush policies have done to this country. We were led into a war on lies, and all through out it has been one lie after another. Can anyone (aside from the rich) say they are actually better off because of the "leadership" of the last 7+ years ?. We have gone down hill and it is time for someone else to take the reigns. McCain will just be a continuation of the Bush years. I for one have had enough.
    This middle-aged white woman is backing Obama, and I'm proud to do so !

    June 16, 2008 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  13. William, from Cali!

    People think this is " some game" or something. The stakes, at risk for this Nation are very high. I really don't care who wins the Election; per se, but "whoever" that does,please make the necessary "Changes" that will secure our Country from our :enemies", and do something about our bordersand those other issues that we face now.1/20/2009 is a long ways off, isn't it..............................................til then, I guess it's "Just Words", that we will hear, ...................................

    June 16, 2008 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  14. Vote against Obama

    Why do we even bother wasting so many millions of dollars on campaigns and debates?

    Why bother with going to the trouble of holding elections?

    Why bother to vote?

    Just take a poll and let the media spin it and voila- you have your next president.

    June 16, 2008 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  15. Anonymous

    Mccain does not need the polls to know he is knocked off. He should prepare his lose speech which must include his regret that the war in Iraq was a mistake, that his tax plan is flawed and that America needs to talk to free nation for peace to reign. Everyone inthe world would want America to succeed if it recognisesthe right of other nations which does not include them having nuclear power. Iran must be stoped by any means necessary but first there should be dailogue. If that fails the answer is hit the nuclear site.

    God bless America

    June 16, 2008 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  16. annonymus

    Obama '08. we dont need another president Bush on our hands, highest unsatisfactory rate ever, for US presidents. Thats why Obama will win in the november election, because we need change. we are the change

    June 16, 2008 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  17. Belle

    I am a vet voting for McCain if I cannot write in Clinton.

    Neither candidate is giving specifics on anything. Obama refuses national town hall meetings with McCain because he is too afraid he will look bad without a teleprompter or pre written speech.

    None of the media is vetting the candidates, so that only leaves me with one experience vote if I cannot write in Clinton. That would be McCain.

    June 16, 2008 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  18. Nicholas from Nigeria

    Mccain does not need the polls to know he is knocked off. He should prepare his lose speech which must include his regret that the war in Iraq was a mistake, that his tax plan is flawed and that America needs to talk to free nation for peace to reign. Everyone inthe world would want America to succeed if it recognisesthe right of other nations which does not include them having nuclear power. Iran must be stoped by any means necessary but first there should be dailogue. If that fails the answer is hit the nuclear site.

    God bless America

    Nicholas from Nigeria

    June 16, 2008 01:19 pm at 1:19 pm |
  19. No McBush

    Beth – Florida June 16th, 2008 12:53 pm ET

    The beginning of the end…

    The land of opportunity will become the land of affirmative action.

    You Beth are so out of touch with America, the only action that should happen is your vote being taken away, you inject hate! and fear! you are no true American! BLACK, WHITE, LATINO,ASIAN, NATIVE,... WE ARE ONE RACE, THE HUMAN RACE!!!!!!!!!!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  20. shannon

    The majority re-elected BUSH..So what do they know?

    June 16, 2008 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  21. John from LA

    Please let this poll be wrong-oh please oh please!!!-America can't afford another 4 years of a novice in the White House!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  22. Brian from Fort Mill, S.C.

    The math is pretty simple.

    During the primaries, Democrats voted 2 to 1 more than the Republicans. Even if that ratio doesn't hold up for the next five months, Obama is the odds-on favorite.

    Of course, anything can change until then.

    June 16, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  23. Pro-choice, pro-dem

    Yeah baby!

    Down with John McBush and the right-wing anti-woman Republicans!

    June 16, 2008 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  24. OBAMA BACKER

    The reason this gap will grow is due to the fact that on every major issue facing American McSame is on the wrong side. Even some prominant republican say he is on the wrong side and that side is George Bush's side. Fact Check
    1. Claims to know nothing about the economy
    2. Wants to stay in Iraq for 4-100 years and think's "its not too important when the troop come home"
    3. Does not want Universal health care
    4. Will over throw Roe Vs. Wade
    5. Has a horrible voting record for womens health issues
    6. Support the failed no child left behind act.
    7. Does support the G.I. bill that helps our soldiers when they come home( but now I know why he doesn't support it because it's not too important when they come home)

    June 16, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  25. thinking is not the same as hoping

    Well we have all learned that Obama will do anything to eliminate his competition.

    So we are pretty sure that the race card will be pulled and the age thing brought up until Obama has secured the presidency.

    Obama will steal the presidency with absolutely no qualifications or merit. Isn't that a sorry day for American.

    We may THINK he will win but we don't WANT him to win. Where are the results of that poll?

    June 16, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
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