June 16th, 2008
11:40 AM ET
7 years ago

Poll: Majority believe Obama will win general election

A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.
A majority of Americans believe Sen. Obama will best Sen. McCain in November, according to a new Gallup poll.

(CNN) – Sen. Barack Obama may be running neck-and-neck with Sen. John McCain in many recent polls but a new survey suggests a majority of Americans think he’s got a far bigger advantage over his fall opponent.

In a new Gallup survey, Obama leads McCain by eleven percentage points – 52 percent to McCain’s 41 percent – on the question of who Americans believe will win the White House this November. Seventy-six percent of Democrats believe Obama will win while 67 percent of Republicans believe McCain will keep the presidency in their party.

Although both men enjoy support from independent voters, more independents believe Obama will beat McCain with 50 percent of the critical group believing Obama will take the White House and 41 percent believing McCain will.

Obama is also winning the perception race among older Americans, even though McCain polls better with that demographic. Fifty-five percent of Americans aged 55 and older believe Obama will win while, just 36 percent in that group believe McCain will be victorious. Among Americans aged 35 to 54, the perception race is tighter; 52 percent of that group believe Obama will win and 43 percent believe McCain will.

Although younger Americans have supported Obama throughout the Democratic primary season, the group is essentially split over who they think will win the White House. Forty-eight percent of Americans aged 18 to 34 believe Obama will win while 45 percent of the group believe McCain will win.

Men are also nearly equally divided on who they believe will win the general election; 50 percent believe Obama will win while 44 percent of men believe McCain will be the next president. With women, Obama enjoys a wide lead in the perception race. Fifty-four of women believe Obama will win the White House and 38 percent believe McCain will win.

The poll was conducted June 9-12 and consisted of telephone interviews of 822 adults nationally, aged 18 or older. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain • Polls
soundoff (268 Responses)
  1. psychic prediction

    Sylvia Brown , the psychic on Montel Williams show predicted that Hilary will loose and Obam will win the nomination and that the Democrates under Obama will win the general election. Obama the next president in 2009 .

    June 16, 2008 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  2. Mimi De La Cruz for OBAMA

    O LORD A BIG DECISION.

    A SUPREMELY, INTELLIGENT LOVING HUMAN BEING,

    OR

    AN INCOMPETENT, INSANE, WARMONGERING BIGOT.

    June 16, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  3. Mccain says it's tough to be proud of America

    Why am I not hearing anyone mention that Mccain said it was tough to be proud of America only 2 days ago. In a town meeting on saturday, June 14, Mccain said it was tough to be proud of America while responding to a question.

    Isn't that Un-American? Why is no body talking about it? CNN, what is this cover-up about? We all know that if those words had come out of Senator Obama's mouth, there would have been no other report today than that.

    Shout it loud. John Mccain says 'it is tough to be proud of America'

    June 16, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  4. never Obama

    We know how Obama cheats and how he manipulates the media to his full advantage.

    So we may think Obama will win, but many are hoping that he doesn't win.

    Perception is strong... but the vote may be stronger.

    June 16, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  5. Ted Clark Me

    Yes, he will win. I voted for Hillary Clinton in the primaries but will never give in to the other side.

    June 16, 2008 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  6. Concerned Man

    I believe Obama is sent by God to rescue US from the hands of the republican. If Americans allow this opportunity ti slip away. Then the Country definetely be sold to the Asians by the Republican. This election should be about America gaining back his leadership position.

    June 16, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  7. Kenneth M

    I THINK IT IS BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF ENERGY MCCAIN IS PUTTING INTO THE RACE. HE HAS HAD 3 MONTHS OF BEING UNAPPOSED 1 ON 1 BY OBAMA. STILL HE HAS NOT FULLY DEPLOYED HIS CAMP. ALSO, HE ALWAYS SEEMS LIKE HE IS ON THE ROPES. IS THAT THE ROPE A DOPE OR JUST THE DOPE PER DOPE PLAN? CAN YOU BELIEVE HE IS PLANNING TO TAKE THE REST OF TODAY OFF?

    June 16, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  8. i never get polled

    No one I know supports Obama anymore.

    He lost our votes by the way he conducted his primary campaign.

    So who is still voting for Obama?

    June 16, 2008 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  9. Daniel Maxwell

    i dont know what to say

    June 16, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  10. Mike in Calgary

    McCain says "Obama" is wong re Iraq, and that we are winning. Tell that to the 4090 families mourning the loss of their son or daughter or father or mother. Tell that to the American taxpayer who will see over $2,000 Billion dollars siphoned away from hospitals, schools, highway and bridge safety projects, construction and job creation, higher taxes and higher fuel costs – all caused by this war. If the war in Iraq is a success – why can't the troops come home. McCain's statements militate against his own positions!

    Re Obama, I thought Christians were pro-life!

    Mike

    June 16, 2008 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  11. Frances

    Michigan vote for HILLARY CLINTON ON independent ticket. WRITE HER NAME ON TOP IN LARGE LETTERS AND YOU MUST VOTE JUST 1 REPUBLICAN ANYTHIN YOU WANT EXCEPT PRESIDENT. HILLLARY STOOD UP FOR YOU LAST TIME, THEY JUST WOULD NOT LET HER DO ANYTHING. SHE WOULD HAVE WON BUT THE DNC GAVE YOUR VOTES ON SUPERDELEGATES AND ALOT OF OTHERS TO OBAMA. THAT IS NOT FAIR. WE ARE WRITING HILLARY CLINTON IN AS INDEPENDENT. IF SHE IS PRESIDENT SHE CAN DO WHAT SHE PROMISED BEFORE. THEY RAN HER OUT BECAUSE "OBAMA IS AFRICAN/AMERICAN, SO WHO CARES WHAT HE IS. HE IS 1/2 WHITE AND 1/2 BLACK WHICH HE WON'T ADMIT. I AM SENDING THAT TO OUR LARGE LOCAL NEWSPAPERS ALL AROUND THE UNITED STATES; OBAMA WILL SAY ONE THING AND DO ANOTHER. I HEARD HE MOVED THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TO ILLINOIS. IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN IN WASHINGTON, DC. IS HE ALREADY ELECTED PRESIDENT. ID DON'T THINK SO. HE SURE GOT SHOT OUT OF THE SADDLE ON THE BRADY BILL; HE THOUGHT HE COULD CONTROL EVERYTHING AS HE SAID IT IS MY WHITE HOUSE, I DON'T TAKE MONEY FROM LOBBYIST AND I WILL DO WHAT I WANT. MICHIGAN , I KNOW I FOUGHT FOR YOU AND FLORIDA REALLY HARD AND WILL AGAIN. JUST DON'T VOTE FOR OBAMA, VOTE AS WE ARE DOING IN TEXAS, VOTE INDEPENDENT AND WRITE HILLARY'S NAME ON IT. THANKS, FRANCES

    June 16, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  12. Michael

    While I support Obama I suggest people not get comfortable with these polls, they are nothing more than a snapshot in time. The polls that come out in October will be a better reflection of who will be the next President. I hope it will be Obama but he has a lot of work to do, there are still a lot of people who have their questions about him. It is going to be close either way.

    June 16, 2008 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  13. BROOKLYN

    Thats pretty funny... Is this the media "telling us" that he would win the general election? Because 16 out of 20 people I know do not want him in office and most Clinton supporters, at this stage would swear to NEVER vote for him... So, in all honesty, these facts seem a little made up!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  14. Watermann

    I have been in Berlin when JFK paid a visit there. Welcoming President Obama will be far more impressing. Not only because of his policies but even more because of his character and honesty. It will cost us a fortune to take care of him not because he will be in danger but because people will adore him. Give him to us and we will be grateful the rest of our life.

    June 16, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  15. Frequent Flyer NYC

    Us Youngsters are split about whether we think Obama could win because we do not trust America anymore. So much BS has been thrown at us and I personally wouldnt be surprised if Obama is not given the presidency despite being capable of winnning an overwhelming majority of states in the general. Refer to 2000 when Yee Haw Bush stole the election from Al Gore. Well I'm not that religious but I guess Im gonna hafta put my trust in God on this one.

    We need change no matter what type of change it is!

    June 16, 2008 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  16. Phil in KC

    They say perception is reality, but I'm not so sure this time. While I hope they're right, I think it is actually a much closer race than that.

    June 16, 2008 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  17. Paula, Seattle, WA

    There should not be one woman in the United States to vote for McCain if they actually looked at his record towards woman's rights and equality.

    He has proven time and again that he does not support a female's right to equal pay, quality health care, and a right to making a decision about their body.

    I challenge all women and men out there to look with open eyes about what McCain will do towards the health and well-being of the females of the US.

    Do not allow McCain to harm the progress that females have made in this country.

    June 16, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  18. BROOKLYN

    The man is a dictator people...
    You would be in for four years of speeches diverting you from all of the screw ups!!!

    Remember when he PREACHED about not wanting POLITICS as USUAL?

    And... What is he doing? Spending 40 million dollars on a party with the DNC when we could be aiding the flood victims... We already know who the nominee is, why do we need a party????

    He is a liar just like the rest of them... Get used to it!!!

    June 16, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  19. gary

    OBAMA SUPPORTERS ARE DREAMING. MCCAIN WILL PREVAIL TO WIN IN NOV. NOBODY WANTS TO BE O.B'S VP. THEY ARE STARTING TO SEE WHO HE IS. OUR REAL CHANGES GOT KICKED TO THE CURB WITH HRC. YOU O.B. SUPPORTERS WILL WISH YOU NEVER GOT BRAINWASHED BY YOUR CANIDATE. IF ELECTED HE WILL BRING AMERICA DOWN WORST THAN IT IS NOW. THIS COUNTRY IS HEADED TOWARD A WORLD WAR. FIRST THERE WILL BE A CIVIL WAR OVER RACIAL DIVISION.. THATS THE CHANGES O.B. BROUGHT ,HATE,RACIST, AND DIVISION. NOSTARADAMUS PREDICTS THIS IN NOSTRDAMUS THE CODE ,WORLD WAR 111. IT ALSO IS IN THE BIBLE. AMERICA GETS WHAT THEY ASK FOR.

    June 16, 2008 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  20. Dictator

    I think Obama is getting too big for his britches.

    He seems to believe that he can control everyone and everything.

    The media helps foster this Messaih complex that Obama suffers from.

    I think Obama has fallen for his own spin and hype.

    he is now convinced that he is entitled to be president and that he is infallible.

    June 16, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  21. frank from canada

    The whole world is watching the united states and this is your chance to win back the trust that has been lost,it is going to go down in history that you had the chance but decided to blow it if you guys vote for republicans again.we need peace in the world and not war,you don't have to be a rocket scientist to know who to vote for just looking and listing to the candidates is enough and i feel bad that people are still talking about race in the 21st century and you always say " IN GOD WE TRUST" Is GOD black or white?It is such a shame....

    June 16, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  22. MD

    Let's hope America can put race bias behind, and choose a person that will clearly change the direction of the government of this country.

    The reception Bush received in Europe is a strong evidence of how the Republicans as perceived there. McCane will only widen the rift between the US and Europe.

    June 16, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  23. getsomeclues

    Obama is the only choice for a thinking American. I don't understand anyone who would vote for McCain. He's still fighting Vietnam, another failed war that should never have been fought. He wants nothing but war and more war, 24/7. Go Obama '08!!

    June 16, 2008 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  24. Robert

    quit trying to influence the general electorate with faulty, meaningless polls. Thgis si the same thing CNN did to Hillary Clinton. I thought the Nazis had the market cornered on propaganda, but CNN has them beat hands down. No wonder we really have no choices, the media makes them for us. Since CNN knows all, will I ever find true love?

    June 16, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  25. Ron in New York

    For those who have reservations about a black man leading our nation or the gall to call this "affirmative action", do not be arrogant and forget two things:

    (1) Obama is the most talented, thoughtful and inspiring politician to come along since Clinton, Reagan, RFK and JFK, regardless of his color. We need his kind of vision and world view in the white house right now.

    (2) African Americans came here when the whites did and helped build this country brick by brick. We should have no qualms about electing someone qualified.

    June 16, 2008 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
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