June 19th, 2008
05:40 PM ET
9 years ago

Schneider: Men could be the deciding factor

(CNN) - After the long, bruising primary battle with Hillary Clinton, a lot of Democrats were concerned Barack Obama would have a problem getting support from women, but the big surprise is that it could be men who become the deciding factor this election cycle.

According to the latest CNN Opinion Research Corporation Poll Obama is running nearly even with John McCain among men. McCain has a slight edge with 49 percent to Obama’s 47 percent. Meanwhile, Obama leads McCain by 9 points among women 52 percent to 43 percent.

WATCH Why men could be the deciding factor

The support from men has become crucial for Republicans in past elections.

According to exit polls from the 2000 election, 53 percent of men helped George W. Bush get elected in 2000, with only 42 percent of men supporting Al Gore. In 2004 George Bush was re-elected with 55 percent support from men to John Kerry’s 44 percent. Most women voted for Gore and Kerry.

In fact, in the last nine presidential elections going back to 1972, men have voted for the Democrat only twice: for Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the economy was bad and a Republican was in the White House. And for Bill Clinton in 1992, when the economy was bad and a Republican was in the White House.

In the 2008 presidential cycle, the economy is bad and a Republican is in the White House, giving Obama a foothold with male voters.

Forty-four percent of men ranked the economy as their number one concern and among the nearly half of men who say their top concern is the economy, Obama has a 7 point lead, 52 percent to McCain’s 45 percent.

That's the thing about the gender gap. It's usually taken to mean women vote Democratic. But it also means men vote Republican — at least, it used to.

Full story

soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. Alice in Florida

    LOLOL – No, Barack the Magic Racist Negro will be taken down by women who are too smart to fall for his smarmy pandering baloney.

    I HOPE TO GOD it's my home state of Florida that sends him back to his racist neighborhood in Chicago – maybe he can "organize that community" to not be racist – I understand he's quite good as a "community organizer" – whatever that is……….

    If not, they can be happy that he will serve them like he did before – by voting "present" as long as they keep being racist enough and stupid enough to keep electing him to a place he hasn't earned.

    Oh, but in that neighborhood, he DID earn it – he be's BLACK enough for that racist neighborhood and church, even though he be trying mightily HARD to show his WHITE side since 13% of the population ain't BEING enough to elect his sorry butt come November. Just LOOKS at how many White folks be behind him at his rallies when they be's shown on TV! How comes no scarf-wearing women needs apply????????

    June 19, 2008 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  2. vic nashville,Tn

    Obama bought a house less than 300 thousands but no sweet heart deal
    Obama’s wife never proud of this country till He decide run for president
    Sorry Obama and DNC
    Hillary 08 or Mc Cain 08

    June 19, 2008 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  3. Jim Richmond

    Why are Americans fascinated with Chips. Bush is a chimp and now Obama. Why don't we get a chimp from a zoo and let him run for the presidency.

    June 19, 2008 09:09 pm at 9:09 pm |
  4. Jonathan

    Hehe, all these so called hillary supporters are getting pretty sad.

    What do you expect from two candidates fighting for one spot?
    Playing nice? Telling you that they would really like the job, but if they're honest the other one is just that little bit better so everyone should vote for him/her?

    You guys are angry for a politician trying to win a primary. 😀
    That's how politics work people! (Although I think 95% of these Hillary supporters are actually republicans. The other five % are just morons. )

    June 19, 2008 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  5. DAN

    Just a little bit of history repeating. Do you mean the kind of men that cling to guns and religion and hate people who don't look like them?

    June 19, 2008 09:15 pm at 9:15 pm |
  6. scott

    What real man would vote for a democrat anyway. The only men that do are half men and pansy liberals-oh and i forgot those that have failed and given up on ever making anything of themselves. Show me a male democrat and i will show you a man whipped by his wife or chasing a skirt!!!

    June 19, 2008 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
  7. maryann

    Who cares. Hillary Clinton is out because of the stupidity of the democratic party and the media. Good Luck with the chosen one. You will need it. I hope McCain wins and all those superdelegates and back stabbing rats in the democratic (Richardson,etc.) eat their shorts.

    June 19, 2008 09:28 pm at 9:28 pm |
  8. Typical White Male

    Where did my post go? I know it was there earlier because "NO MCCAIN!!!!" responded to it....I guess it was anit-obama so it was removed.

    June 19, 2008 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  9. Paul

    I for one voted Republican last time, but am prepared to give Obama a chance because fundamental changes are needed. I'm tired of empty promises on healthcare and social security among other things. It is up to John McCain to convince me otherwise.

    June 19, 2008 09:35 pm at 9:35 pm |
  10. seth

    Read the CNN archives. In 2000 Bush consistently beat Gore in the polls. In 2004 Bush consistenly trounced Kerry in the polls. Obama will win by a landslide. Guaranteed. Ahead in the polls. Able to outspend McCain 3 to 1. Huge turnout by excited demographics who usually don't vote much (African Americans and college kids). McCain can't even excite his base. Obama puts CO, VA, maybe even MS into play, which at the least means the GOP needs to spend money in states they formerly ignored, and may even give up enough electoral votes that Ohio or Florida don't even matter. And Obama will destroy McCain in the debates. It's a slam dunk. Obama wins in a landslide. Guaranteed.

    June 19, 2008 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  11. Paul

    John et al,
    Obama didn't trash the Clintons. They did that to themselves.

    June 19, 2008 09:37 pm at 9:37 pm |
  12. Coloradoan

    Listen up you Frauds from "PUMA"

    Republicans in Democrats clothing.

    Your lie has failed. Posing as disaffected "Hillary Supporters" lasted as long as a snowball in Hell. Flush your Rush down the toilet.

    Your tricks will Fail, and they are PATHETIC like you are.

    Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are now BLUE.

    Bush has DESTROYED the Republican Party, and we are loving every minute of this.

    President Barack H. Obama. Get used to it!!!!

    June 19, 2008 09:39 pm at 9:39 pm |
  13. Wisconsin

    Men who want to see their kids again, back from the war, will not vote for McWar.

    Men who don't buy into the Republican hype about taxes will not vote for McWar.

    Men who care about being green will not vote for McWar.

    Men who are tired of the republican spin machine that has brought us nothing, NOTHING, but war, debt, and a failed economy.

    Men who know that when McWar speaks of drilling that McWar doesn't tell you that it will take 5 to 10 years AND there is no reason that the oil companies will just raise the supply lowering their own profits.

    Theese men wil not vote for McWar,
    they will vote for hope, change and a better future,

    Who votes for McWar? Cowboys who support rape...

    June 19, 2008 09:39 pm at 9:39 pm |
  14. Russell Hammond

    From a white man: McCain? Hell yeah. I wanna vote for the old white dude who ditched his invalid spouse and married the much younger New York socialite. That's American!

    June 19, 2008 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  15. why mccain people

    All mccain fans, please enlighten me and answer this question. Why do you if both people have pracitically the same policies, think that mccain will be better, even with the same polocies. Answer, it won't, you can change a persons apperance, but not whats inside. putting mccain instead of bush will do nothing but be worse. Lets take a chance on change, i guarentee that it will be a lot better than geoge bush3, the return of the depression.

    June 19, 2008 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  16. Nicholas

    Christ almighty, Have you not learned how stupid you all trying to find that one demographic that will be the deciding factor? You all are terrible. Find a new job please.

    June 19, 2008 09:51 pm at 9:51 pm |
  17. Justice League

    McCain is a weak, feeble old man. Any one who believes in this walking corpse is pathetic. PUMA is a disgraceful organization and may as well be called the KKK as far as I'm concerned. If you're gonna dish it out, prepare to get it spiked back in your face. And not to beat a dead horse but that it what you HRC twits seem to like to do, but he won the election based on votes and electorates. Live with it!

    June 19, 2008 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  18. Typical White Male

    why mccain people–

    You answered your own question why we support McCain–

    "you can change a persons apperance, but not whats inside." Fortunately, reading several of Obama's book I have seen how he thinks without the "Spin". Remember, Rev. Wright is like an Uncle to him

    June 19, 2008 09:56 pm at 9:56 pm |
  19. Frank, San Diego

    How will men react when they hear that McCain said he never loved America until he was deprived of her company?

    Maybe they'll decide that Mrs. Obama's remark about not having really been proud of America until she saw how people responded to her husband's candidacy makes a lot more sense than people have allowed.

    Just as Senator McCain might have thought he loved America before he was deprived of its freedoms, Mrs. Obama may have thought that she had pride in America before she saw it really begin to live up to its birthright.

    For both of them, the strong contrast in their experiences gives them a new understanding of their country that they hadn't had before.

    June 19, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  20. mcBush

    go to hell mccain i am reall happy to see you loose the election because we dont want any republican liars to control our country. Obama 08!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! mccain is a =========D

    June 19, 2008 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  21. CommDirector

    Seriously, can CNN read polls correctly?

    Obama has a significant lead among women.
    Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men.
    = Men deciding factor?

    Men can only be the deciding factor if men overwhelmingly go for McCain. For example, even with a 4 pt. gap behind McCain on men, Obama can win.

    It's simple math. If women comprised 60% of likely voters, and with 52:43 for Obama, meaning that's 31% for Obama, 26% for McCain.

    Then if men comprised 40% of likely voters, and i give McCain a generous 50:45, meaning that's 20% for McCain, and 18% for Obama.

    So that's a total of 49% for Obama, 46% for McCain.
    Who won the men's votes? McCain.
    Who has the higher overall percentage? Obama.
    Were men the deciding factor?

    I can bear the more than usual spin that CNN puts into things.
    But math should never never never be something to spin.

    June 19, 2008 10:10 pm at 10:10 pm |
  22. Tony

    I'm starting to loath obama supporters. Petty children who act like spoiled second graders.

    Voted for Clinton, was planning to go with Obama, but the big mouths are pushing me the other direction. Grow up.

    June 19, 2008 10:17 pm at 10:17 pm |
  23. LD

    McCain and his wife are out of touch to the american paople. We need a new direction, goo health care, good economy, job creation. No war.

    June 19, 2008 10:17 pm at 10:17 pm |
  24. Mike in NYC

    JonRoss wrote:

    "Men who want to protect their families, their homes, and their country will vote for McCain. They will not accept a Marxist coup."

    They already have accepted it. Look at what's happened to this country since the 1960's.

    Ratgurl wrote:

    "Ah, men. The forgotten demographic! Ooh, make that WHITE men."

    When it comes to singling out one group to blame for everyone else's problems, white men certainly haven't been forgotten.

    June 19, 2008 10:17 pm at 10:17 pm |
  25. LD


    June 19, 2008 10:20 pm at 10:20 pm |
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