June 25th, 2008
07:05 AM ET
6 years ago

Poll shows Obama with a double-digit lead

Obama is up big in a new poll.
Obama is up big in a new poll.

(CNN) - With just over four months to go until voters weigh in at the polls, a new survey suggests Sen. Barack Obama is holding a double-digit lead over Sen. John McCain among registered voters.

According to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, Obama holds a 12 point lead over McCain in a head-to-head match up, 49 percent to 37 percent. But when third party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the list, Obama's lead over McCain extends to 15 points, 48 percent to 33 percent.

The survey is the second in a matter of days to indicate McCain may face a sizable deficit as the general election campaign kicks off. A Newsweek poll released four days ago showed the Illinois senator with a 15 point lead.

Watch: Obama leads McCain in critical swing states

According to a CNN analysis of five recent national surveys, Obama holds an 8 point lead over his presidential rival.

CNN Polling Director Keating Holland notes a substantial lead in June does not always lead to a decisive victory the following November.

“Historically speaking, when June polls show a tight race, the race usually remains tight all the way through November. But when June polls have shown a big lead for one candidate, that lead has often melted," Holland said.

"Bill Clinton was leading Bob Dole by up to 19 points in June, 1996; Clinton won by eight. Michael Dukakis had a 14-point lead over George Bush the elder in June, 1988; Bush won by seven. Jimmy Carter was up nearly 20 points in June, 1976 but in November eked out a two-point win. And Richard Nixon managed an even smaller victory in 1968 even though he had a 16-point margin that June," Holland noted.

The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll indicates Obama is clearly benefiting from the nation's economic woes. Voters rate the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country and say Obama is likely to handle the issue better than the presumptive Republican nominee. Voters say McCain is better suited to handle the war against terror, but the poll indicates that is not currently their top concern.

The poll also indicates the conservative base has yet to fully embrace their party's nominee. Among voters who self identified themselves as conservative, just under 60 percent said they would vote for McCain, fifteen percent said they would vote for Obama, 15 percent said they would vote for another candidate, and 13 percent said they were undecided.

That compares to the nearly 80 percent of self identified liberals who say they plan to vote for Obama.

As for former supporters of Hillary Clinton, the poll finds only 11 percent aren't planning on supporting Obama.

The poll surveyed 1,115 registered voters and was conducted from June 19-23. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

soundoff (310 Responses)
  1. RJ, CA

    The AOl Straw Poll – REAL people voting REALTIME: June 20-27: Total votes case: 260,361. Obama 39%, McCain 61%

    June 24, 2008 08:46 pm at 8:46 pm |
  2. Rob

    McCain will win in November just like Bush won in November over Kerry in 2004. Remember how surprised the pollsters were when Bush won. How could so many experts have been so wrong back then? It's really quite simple: their polls were either intentionally manipulated to influence the election outcome or polled voters lied. History repeats itself and will do so again in 2008. The vast majority of white men will not vote for Obama and neither will their wives or significant others. A great many blue collar workers will also not vote for him, because he's not an every man kind of guy that average American blue collar workers can relate to. Throw in Obama's problem with wearing an American flag lapel and holding his hand over his heart during the national anthem and this election will be a cakewalk for John McCain. Americans will never elect Obama over McCain, because McCain's entire adult life has been spent in faithful service to this country while Obama freely chose to not enlist in the military and did not seek national office until 2004.

    June 24, 2008 08:47 pm at 8:47 pm |
  3. kim hussein taylor portland, oregon

    i've noticed the same thing...prices at restaurants and the grocery store have really gone up. and why? so the repugs and oil companies can keep making their billions!!

    NO ONE should vote repug this election, except for the soul-less administration and their billionaire buddies!

    i dont care what your views on abortion, same-sex marriage, etc... are, those issues are going to seem REALLY insignificant when you're trying to feed your kids and fill your gas tank. i repsect that you have your views, but seriously, this election is sooooooooo important, it's irresponsible to vote on such small issues as whose doing who in their bedroom. it's not YOUR business!

    stopoilspeculators.com

    June 24, 2008 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  4. chud

    Obama offers nothing new, it's the same old liberal failed policies.

    June 24, 2008 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  5. sean l

    this country makes me sad.

    i'll def not be voting in my first election.

    June 24, 2008 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  6. HappyObamite,Maryland

    DID ANYONE SAY:
    -HE IS NOT ELECTABLE?
    -HE CANNOT WIN THE SWING STATES?
    HMMMMM
    SHOULD I ADD THAT THE PERSON I AM TALKING ABOUT IS DEAD BROKE AND BEGGING SOME MONEY TO THE NON ELECTABLE GUY?
    GUESS WHAT! I AM GOING TO SEND ALL MY MONEY TO OBAMALAND TO CONTINUE TO RUN ADS TO REPAIR THE DAMAGE THAT PERSON CREATED AND WHEN WE GET TO THE WHITE HOUSE, THEN WE CAN HELP COVER THE 20 MILLION BUCKS (OR MORE IF PENN DOES NOT ADD INTERESTS BY THEN)

    June 24, 2008 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  7. Matt

    Its great to see this – but I'm still holding my breath. I won't really believe it until election day. The next 4 months will be a brutal smear against Obama most likely. I hope his team veers away from too many mistakes.

    June 24, 2008 08:51 pm at 8:51 pm |
  8. Michelle

    OK–I challenge the Obama supporters to name one legislative accomplishment.

    tick, tock-See, you cannot do it.
    Obama has NONE.

    Good thing that only the electoral college matters.
    McCain will dominate.

    June 24, 2008 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  9. mcshame

    you are the man and we need you to lead this country!!!

    June 24, 2008 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
  10. PCS / North Carolina

    Did you all hear McSame's Health Care plan = Market forces driven healthcare.
    Is this McSame dillusional or demented.
    He does not care about the 49 million uninsured and 79 million underinsured in this country. All the while he has 1- medicare, 2-senate medical coverage, 3- Millitary health care and rich wife who can buy a few medical insurance companies.

    June 24, 2008 08:52 pm at 8:52 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13