Obama holds a small lead over McCain, 4 months before the election, but previous summer polls don't always predict the outcome in November. (AP Photo)
(CNN) - The race for the White House remains tight as American heads into the July 4 weekend, a new CNN poll of polls shows.
In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent. That represents a slight increase for the Illinois senator over the last week: in a CNN Poll of polls released last Friday, Obama topped the Arizona senator by 5 points.
“As we hit the July 4 holiday weekend, the presidential polls seem to have settled into a stable pattern,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama’s lead in our polling average has been holding relatively steady around the five percent mark for almost a month. The question now is whether that lead will hold — or possibly even expand — as we turn our attention to the conventions and the campaigns start advertising more.”
The presumptive presidential nominee has clearly increased his lead from one month ago: in a CNN poll of polls conducted June 2, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race, Obama led McCain by only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent.
But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.
Consider where the presidential race stood in 2004 heading into the July 4 weekend: then, John Kerry held a 4 point lead over Bush in a CNN poll of polls, 49 percent to 45 percent, a lead that evaporated by November. And in 2000, Bush was up 6 points over Gore at this point in the summer — and the outcome that year, of course, was one of the narrowest electoral victories in the nation's history.
From CNN Politics
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But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.
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So why bother to report this? Why not do some real research for a change like look into the gay love affair McCain had while in the Navy? Or maybe actually hire someone to do proof reading of your articles?
Barack Obama over John Keating 5 McCain any day, any month... Now through November.
People are tired. People want change. McCain does not equal change. Obama will win this election by a landslide. It doesn't matter what the polls say now. Young people are involved. This is their revolution. Obama will win.
Obama '08
GOBAMA!
Make a statement. Vote for Ralph.
"In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent."
I don't mean to be a smart alek but I think I speak for everybody when i say, "Huh?"
So the story is........???
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ITS FIFTY FIFTY.
50% VOTING FOR OBAMA.
50% NOT VOTING FOR MCCAIN.
ITS FIFTY FIFTY.
Polls mean nothing. It is now about obtaining 270 electoral votes. This election will be very, very close.
On the weekend of our independence, where is McBush anyone, in Columbia and Mexico. I guess THAT IS PATROTIC...
Why YES, CNN. That's right! Summer polls are hardly predictive of the November results! So maybe that means you should stop putting out another amalgamated poll every three days.
Yeesh.
McCain should not look at the white house as a retirement home, and he should NOT think of US citizens and our money as pawns in a crap shoot.
He should just concede now. No more wars !!!!!!!!!
The RNC are the worst hypocrites and after seven years of mess, it is time for CHANGE...
All the polls do is serve the interests of the pollsters, who otherwise would have to get real jobs.
Polls like these don't matter and only take up time and resources. What really matters is a running count of the Electoral College. Even so, the polls mean nothing this far out, and will change drastically. And lastly, polls updated every day, or every other day, is way too much, especially considering their irrelevance.
What's up with giving a speech on a runway/
You are correct CNN! The polls don't mean a thing at this point so why do you publish them every day. Even you say they are worthless!
Hey Liz – Young people supported Hitler, too. People wanted change then, too. They got change; the whole world got change, but evidently you weren't around then, or maybe you think like Ahmadinejad. I know this won't get past the CNN moderators but they did say "Leave Your Comment". How 'bout some comments other than the tired old liberal propaganda.
The only candidate that can wear a light, seasonal suit and still look like the man at the helm of a government. Casual, but authoritative.
(No I am not J. Peterman... I am Jeronimo!)
I'm sick of these daily polls. I'm thinking about turning off the news all together because there has not been a legitimate news story reported in, well, I don't even know how long.
I hope Obama widens the lead but it really does not mean much now until running mates are selected and the conventions take place.
Then, hopefully, people will watch the debates and see that Obama is qualified and smart enough to run this country. After the last 8 years, what else could we want?
And please don't give me the flip-flopper argument (like McCain has not changed almost all of his positions) or the inexperience argument (how many of you citing inexperience voted for Bush?). President is no longer a one-man job.
I am somewhat surprised that the polls don't indicate the Obama LANDSLIDE yet. But McBush IS re-org'ing his staff amidst concerns of just that !!
This is the year of the DEMOCRAT, and it's about time. Eight years of repube evangelical-supporting rhetoric is WAY TOO LONG.
Just remember........
Friends don't let Friends vote republican !!!
CNN: I understand your network has a vested interest in making money off this election. But for the sake of honesty....please, stop saying the race is close. Its not a race When Barack Obama is beating John McSame in Montana ( Montana of all states) by 5 points and Virginia by 4.
I'm still a Hillary supporter but will, reluctantly, vote for Obama. We need to change the way Washington works, bring the Supreme Court back into balance, deal with the immigration issue (just not fiscally feasible to deport millions of people), end the oil war in Iraq and redeploy those troops to Afghanistan . . . and does anybody actually believe it was 'coincidence' that McCain was in Colombia when the hostages were rescued? Pure Rovian stagecraft! We all applaud Senator McCain's service and sacrifice, but many of today's voters neither remember nor care about Viet Nam. I'm old enough to have lost many friends in that thankless war and Iraq is as hopelessly winless as Viet Nam was.
Out with old and in with the new.
Yes we can!