July 4th, 2008
06:35 AM ET
6 years ago

Polls: Obama up, but race remains close

ALT TEXT

Obama holds a small lead over McCain, 4 months before the election, but previous summer polls don't always predict the outcome in November. (AP Photo)

(CNN) - The race for the White House remains tight as American heads into the July 4 weekend, a new CNN poll of polls shows.

In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent. That represents a slight increase for the Illinois senator over the last week: in a CNN Poll of polls released last Friday, Obama topped the Arizona senator by 5 points.

“As we hit the July 4 holiday weekend, the presidential polls seem to have settled into a stable pattern,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama’s lead in our polling average has been holding relatively steady around the five percent mark for almost a month. The question now is whether that lead will hold — or possibly even expand — as we turn our attention to the conventions and the campaigns start advertising more.”

The presumptive presidential nominee has clearly increased his lead from one month ago: in a CNN poll of polls conducted June 2, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race, Obama led McCain by only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent.

But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.

Consider where the presidential race stood in 2004 heading into the July 4 weekend: then, John Kerry held a 4 point lead over Bush in a CNN poll of polls, 49 percent to 45 percent, a lead that evaporated by November. And in 2000, Bush was up 6 points over Gore at this point in the summer — and the outcome that year, of course, was one of the narrowest electoral victories in the nation's history.

Related: Election Center


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (245 Responses)
  1. boered1

    But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.

    _________________________________________________

    So why bother to report this? Why not do some real research for a change like look into the gay love affair McCain had while in the Navy? Or maybe actually hire someone to do proof reading of your articles?

    July 3, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  2. Peter of Oregon

    Barack Obama over John Keating 5 McCain any day, any month... Now through November.

    July 3, 2008 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  3. Liz from Atlanta, GA

    People are tired. People want change. McCain does not equal change. Obama will win this election by a landslide. It doesn't matter what the polls say now. Young people are involved. This is their revolution. Obama will win.

    Obama '08

    July 3, 2008 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  4. Matt from NYC

    GOBAMA!

    July 3, 2008 06:22 pm at 6:22 pm |
  5. Georgia

    Make a statement. Vote for Ralph.

    July 3, 2008 06:24 pm at 6:24 pm |
  6. Doug

    "In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent."

    I don't mean to be a smart alek but I think I speak for everybody when i say, "Huh?"

    July 3, 2008 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  7. Allen from Hartwell, GA

    So the story is........???

    July 3, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  8. al

    ******************************************

    ITS FIFTY FIFTY.

    50% VOTING FOR OBAMA.

    50% NOT VOTING FOR MCCAIN.

    ITS FIFTY FIFTY.

    July 3, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  9. David Newport, OR

    Polls mean nothing. It is now about obtaining 270 electoral votes. This election will be very, very close.

    July 3, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  10. s.positive

    On the weekend of our independence, where is McBush anyone, in Columbia and Mexico. I guess THAT IS PATROTIC...

    July 3, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  11. The Surly Scholar

    Why YES, CNN. That's right! Summer polls are hardly predictive of the November results! So maybe that means you should stop putting out another amalgamated poll every three days.

    Yeesh.

    July 3, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  12. Phil, FL

    McCain should not look at the white house as a retirement home, and he should NOT think of US citizens and our money as pawns in a crap shoot.

    He should just concede now. No more wars !!!!!!!!!

    July 3, 2008 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  13. s.positive

    The RNC are the worst hypocrites and after seven years of mess, it is time for CHANGE...

    July 3, 2008 06:30 pm at 6:30 pm |
  14. Mike Cairo, NY

    All the polls do is serve the interests of the pollsters, who otherwise would have to get real jobs.

    July 3, 2008 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  15. Stop the frequent polls

    Polls like these don't matter and only take up time and resources. What really matters is a running count of the Electoral College. Even so, the polls mean nothing this far out, and will change drastically. And lastly, polls updated every day, or every other day, is way too much, especially considering their irrelevance.

    July 3, 2008 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  16. Slowpoke

    What's up with giving a speech on a runway/

    July 3, 2008 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  17. pam Eugene OR

    You are correct CNN! The polls don't mean a thing at this point so why do you publish them every day. Even you say they are worthless!

    July 3, 2008 06:33 pm at 6:33 pm |
  18. That's Reality

    Hey Liz – Young people supported Hitler, too. People wanted change then, too. They got change; the whole world got change, but evidently you weren't around then, or maybe you think like Ahmadinejad. I know this won't get past the CNN moderators but they did say "Leave Your Comment". How 'bout some comments other than the tired old liberal propaganda.

    July 3, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  19. Jeronimo

    The only candidate that can wear a light, seasonal suit and still look like the man at the helm of a government. Casual, but authoritative.

    (No I am not J. Peterman... I am Jeronimo!)

    July 3, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  20. A.

    I'm sick of these daily polls. I'm thinking about turning off the news all together because there has not been a legitimate news story reported in, well, I don't even know how long.

    July 3, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  21. Peter

    I hope Obama widens the lead but it really does not mean much now until running mates are selected and the conventions take place.

    Then, hopefully, people will watch the debates and see that Obama is qualified and smart enough to run this country. After the last 8 years, what else could we want?

    And please don't give me the flip-flopper argument (like McCain has not changed almost all of his positions) or the inexperience argument (how many of you citing inexperience voted for Bush?). President is no longer a one-man job.

    July 3, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  22. Carolina Dood

    I am somewhat surprised that the polls don't indicate the Obama LANDSLIDE yet. But McBush IS re-org'ing his staff amidst concerns of just that !!

    This is the year of the DEMOCRAT, and it's about time. Eight years of repube evangelical-supporting rhetoric is WAY TOO LONG.

    Just remember........

    Friends don't let Friends vote republican !!!

    July 3, 2008 06:39 pm at 6:39 pm |
  23. Tadd

    CNN: I understand your network has a vested interest in making money off this election. But for the sake of honesty....please, stop saying the race is close. Its not a race When Barack Obama is beating John McSame in Montana ( Montana of all states) by 5 points and Virginia by 4.

    July 3, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  24. Bonnie

    I'm still a Hillary supporter but will, reluctantly, vote for Obama. We need to change the way Washington works, bring the Supreme Court back into balance, deal with the immigration issue (just not fiscally feasible to deport millions of people), end the oil war in Iraq and redeploy those troops to Afghanistan . . . and does anybody actually believe it was 'coincidence' that McCain was in Colombia when the hostages were rescued? Pure Rovian stagecraft! We all applaud Senator McCain's service and sacrifice, but many of today's voters neither remember nor care about Viet Nam. I'm old enough to have lost many friends in that thankless war and Iraq is as hopelessly winless as Viet Nam was.

    July 3, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  25. Drew, Central FL

    Out with old and in with the new.

    Yes we can!

    July 3, 2008 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
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