July 4th, 2008
06:35 AM ET
10 years ago

Polls: Obama up, but race remains close


Obama holds a small lead over McCain, 4 months before the election, but previous summer polls don't always predict the outcome in November. (AP Photo)

(CNN) - The race for the White House remains tight as American heads into the July 4 weekend, a new CNN poll of polls shows.

In the latest CNN survey of four recent national polls, Barack Obama holds a 6 point lead over John McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent. That represents a slight increase for the Illinois senator over the last week: in a CNN Poll of polls released last Friday, Obama topped the Arizona senator by 5 points.

“As we hit the July 4 holiday weekend, the presidential polls seem to have settled into a stable pattern,” said CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “Obama’s lead in our polling average has been holding relatively steady around the five percent mark for almost a month. The question now is whether that lead will hold — or possibly even expand — as we turn our attention to the conventions and the campaigns start advertising more.”

The presumptive presidential nominee has clearly increased his lead from one month ago: in a CNN poll of polls conducted June 2, when Hillary Clinton was still in the race, Obama led McCain by only one point, 46 percent to 45 percent.

But how predictive are presidential polls four months before the election? Not very.

Consider where the presidential race stood in 2004 heading into the July 4 weekend: then, John Kerry held a 4 point lead over Bush in a CNN poll of polls, 49 percent to 45 percent, a lead that evaporated by November. And in 2000, Bush was up 6 points over Gore at this point in the summer — and the outcome that year, of course, was one of the narrowest electoral victories in the nation's history.

Related: Election Center

Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (245 Responses)
  1. dennis from chicago

    they report polls like this thinking you are like sheep follow the mob do not think for your self vote with the poll because that makes you a winner... follow your own mind and do some real reading about each candidate....... if you do that you will see beyond the glitz of fancy analogies. hopes, and unprovened promises.... vote your mind not your anger or emotions

    July 3, 2008 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  2. PCS / North Carolina

    Griff wrote July 3rd, 2008 6:47 pm ET

    "Jump on that plane Mr Obama… Flee while you can!"

    Why ? You Neocon's / NRA / FOX news == NWO KKK wants to shoot him down ? If It happens, you will witness the next revolution !!

    July 3, 2008 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
  3. Joe Reg

    It is a clear pattern and the American people are not going to change their mind about the way the current republican administration manage the economy, jobs lost, housing lost, deficits and so on.

    The time has come for a change in a new direction. The time has come for the Democrats to fix the economy and bring back the jobs that have been lost.

    Obama 08 & 12.

    July 3, 2008 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  4. Jen, CA

    Wrong, DM, Arlington – our service members do NOW - and have ALWAYS - given their lives for the country they love and respect - and protect - for YOU, Dude!.

    But, of course, DM, Arlington, you wouldn't understand that. Your head is in the clouds, you would p– in your pants if you were ever faced with truly defending your country. You prefer to "blog" your opinions from some "safe haven" or some Starbuck's coffee shop - or, most likely, from your employer website on company time. Basically, you are a COWWARD. I suggest you move somewhere else, and see how you like it there!

    July 3, 2008 09:26 pm at 9:26 pm |
  5. capitalist

    funny that obama can't get a bigger lead even after the unity thing with clinton...he's in real trouble..he's running out of catch phrases and will have to debate actual policy soon...will the citizens finally see that he's nothing more than a good speaker? will they see that his views simply don't mesh with 95% of this country? will they see that he won't shy away from his socialist views even when shown that they simply fail when put to use? i'm not convinced our citizens are smart enough to decipher what he is putting out there...

    anyone but obama in 08

    July 3, 2008 09:27 pm at 9:27 pm |
  6. DR

    The only change we get from this guy now is when he changes his mind to suit his message on a particular day.

    If this guy gets elected, the only change you are going to get is what's left in your pockets when he is finished taxing everyone up the whazoo - because that is all you are going to have left when all is said and done.

    Wake up people - this guy is not the answer!

    July 3, 2008 09:33 pm at 9:33 pm |
  7. Mike H

    It's Obama's to lose. There will be nastyness from the rabid wing of the Republican party, and sabotage in the media from the Israeli party.

    July 3, 2008 09:33 pm at 9:33 pm |
  8. H. Thompson

    The commentary from Dick in Sioux Falls is very well said. Read it, it's the best comment in the whole thread.

    July 3, 2008 09:33 pm at 9:33 pm |
  9. Get real people

    Yet again I read that many of you seem to be misguided with your "8 years of Republican rule" statements. Correct me if I am wrong but didn't the Dems take over both sides of Congress with the "Change" statement 2 years ago? Seems to me we haven't seen this "change" yet.

    Moreover if you think about it the foreclosure crisis, economy crisis and gas price increase have all happened while Congress has been controlled by the Dems! Obama is just using the "change" statement the same way the Dems say the Republicans us the "terror" statement. They will say whatever they think you want to hear to get elected, period.

    And the last thing I have to say is stop saying this war in Iraq is an "oil" war. If it was you'd think we wouldn't have these gas price issues!

    July 3, 2008 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  10. jane in CA

    America needs to show to the world that Americans love Peace. We select a President who supports to strengthen infrastructure so people live in peace and prosperity, to build up hi-tech military defense, to provide accurate international intelligence, to start alternative energy programs and not to keep drilling oil and building more nuclear power plants that are human errors and disasters prone, and to lead in resolving the global warming.

    Yes We Can. We can change with President Obama.

    July 3, 2008 09:34 pm at 9:34 pm |
  11. Old Sarge

    Dear Sir/Madam,
    Just watching Campbell Brown on her show. I am astonished at what I am hearing about Sen. Obama, with reference to his patriotism. Let me clearly define, who I am first and foremost. I am a African-American born and raised in B'ham, Ala.
    I served in two(2) wars or conflicts. Whatever, you want to called them, Korea and Viet-Nam. Many other African-American fought and died in those conflicts. Also, they are being killed in Iraq and the Afgahan conflict. But, in this day and age. Blacks still have to prove that we are patriotic to the United States. What has happened to the Constitution of this country. When new anchors contuine to subject Sen Obama to a different standard. I thought that we were fighting in these wars to eliminate this type of hypocrisy. I never heard anyone ask if Pres. Bill Clinton was a "true blue patriot" or Pres. F. Roosevelt the same.
    Please, approach your news editors with these same questions. I do want to contuine to watch CNN News.

    July 3, 2008 09:35 pm at 9:35 pm |
  12. Kenneth M.

    10 to 1 JonRoss is over weight. He is very concerned that Obama might mess with his food (ie what to eat and how much). People want change, and Obama is different. You must admit that.

    July 3, 2008 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  13. white 49 yr old woman for Obama

    Obama will take the general elections by a land slide. He will be the first African American president of the US and leader of the free world. He will make history, not only as the first African American but also as the leader who brought diplomacy and peace, as well as the leader who helped America regain its status in the wrold as the leader with a sound economy , good healthcare and an education with the highest standards this country has eve seen. We will make it this time with th ehelp of a leader that cares about the American people.

    July 3, 2008 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  14. Obama Express

    eople get ready, there's a train a' comin'!

    You don't need no ticket, you just get on board!!!

    July 3, 2008 09:37 pm at 9:37 pm |
  15. Marty, FL

    Go Obama! We are working hard for you in Florida! Si se puede!

    July 3, 2008 09:41 pm at 9:41 pm |
  16. brewme

    I think things look fine for McCain. The "bump" Obama was supposed to get did not materialize. The American people are fearful of the inexperienced and noncommittal Democratic candidate. The guy is like a weather vane, go where the polls blow you. This is going to be too easy. If Obama did not deliver such a good speech he would not have won the nomination.

    Keep changing your position Obama. The people don't trust a liar.

    July 3, 2008 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  17. Kenneth M.

    I am so sick of theses people being so negitive about Obama. Look, we have seen what the Redubyacans can do. They had controle for the past 8 years and have stunk the country up. Now they want to blame it on the Dems because we have had the congress for 2 years. Well, it take more then 2 years to fix anything when everything is broken. And the History I mean Hillary fans are just a sad sack of political suckers moving to the right to spite themselves! Get a grip, Go Obama or stay at home.

    July 3, 2008 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  18. Roy B Carthen

    Obama books he wrote shows his love for black people and his lack of love for whites, for instance, he stated he left his feelings for his mother in favor of black people.
    Obama wife thesis from college shows her dedication for black people and her lack of caring for white people.
    I cannot believe that the American people can not see the truth behind Obama.. He stated in his book titled Audacity of Hope: "I will stand with the muslims should the political winds shift in an ugly directon"
    Wake up America. Let us not give our country to a man with only 143 actual days of experience in the congress...roy b carthen

    July 3, 2008 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  19. Think again

    All of you dems who want to vote McCain.....

    How can he manage the country's economy?

    1) He didn't pay taxes for four years on one of his 7 houses.

    2) His wife puts $750,000 on the amer ex card....who is elitist?

    3) His campaign pretty much went BROKE before the other repubs just stopped running.....

    Talk about waking up and looking through all the Rovian crap...

    And another thing:

    All those of you who draw attention to Barack's middle name like it is a horrible thing......Hussein is not traditionally a terrorist name....
    Do you know McCain;s middle name?......hmmmmm



    July 3, 2008 09:48 pm at 9:48 pm |
  20. California Voter

    I just don't get the story here. The race is close and that's all that can be said and yet everyday there is another poll. Why?

    July 3, 2008 09:49 pm at 9:49 pm |
  21. Brad

    Go Obama! I'm helping Dunwoody, GA organize a parade tomorrow, I'll be trying to woo some fellow patriots! We need you! I can not trust McCain, he's quick to temper in a volatile world, he's self-proclaimed computer illiterate and unwilling to adapt to changing times in this changing world, and he's clearly out-of-touch with my generation (which is fed-up having to clean up the messes left by his, the supposed "greatest generation," if you ask me, if greatest equals racist, fascist, irrational and uneducated, you can have your icky title, and we will continue to be the generation of change.) Go away, McSame, your cave-troll politics cannot hold a candle to what's to come. We shall fix your shattered policies, we will remain wise to counter your illiteracy, we are America. Can we prevail? Yes we can!

    July 3, 2008 09:50 pm at 9:50 pm |
  22. Crush Rush

    Dittoheads are mentally handicapped,be kind to them but their leader is a cigar chomping slob.

    July 3, 2008 09:51 pm at 9:51 pm |
  23. G-Dub

    A vote for McSame is a vote for Blackwater

    July 3, 2008 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  24. Reality Check

    Who in thier right mind would ever vote again for the Republicans. They have sold out the United States to the Chinese, lied (and continue to lie) about the Iraq war, put us in debt forever, and continue to blame everyone else for our problems – most of which Republicans are responsible for. This party needs to be extinguished forever!!

    July 3, 2008 09:52 pm at 9:52 pm |
  25. Matthew

    What strikes me as odd is those conservatives who come out every time a new poll shows Obama ahead, and say something like, "this isn't true because I won't favor him...." Or something to that effect, like they alone reflect the view of the country.....DUH. On a related note, this is why I believe Obama will win, not by too much, but will win. Mccain Has a problem with his base, conservatives. He is only doing well with independants who usually swing republican anyway. Bob Barr is far more conservative and is relevant enough to take that base from Mccain. Obama on the other hand is very popular with the majority of his party and is gaining in popularity. Nadar ruined the election for dems in 2000; and got far less votes in '04. He's a negative figure for dems now and won't take much from Obama. If you figure all that in, it favors Obama in November, we'll see how it goes.

    July 3, 2008 09:54 pm at 9:54 pm |
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