(CNN) - Barack Obama will travel to Virginia tomorrow in hopes of turning the purple state blue, but one of John McCain's top supporters in the state said Wednesday that Obama's chances of winning there this fall are precisely zero.
Rep. Tom Davis, the retiring Republican congressman from northern Virginia, told reporters flatly: "Obama is not going to win in Virginia."
He made the comments on a conference call organized by the Republican National Committee in advance of Obama's trip. Davis called Virginia a fundamentally "right-of-center state" and claimed that McCain's biography and maverick reputation will carry him through a potential backlash against the damaged national GOP brand.
"It's clearly a tough year for the party," Davis said, adding that President Bush's poll numbers "have been in the trash can." Even the congressman's own district, VA-11, may fall into Democratic hands in an open seat election this fall. But, Davis argued, McCain will see "extraordinary crossover support" from Virginia Democrats, especially in the parts of the state with military bases and substantial veteran populations.
The eyes of national Democrats are trained on Davis' backyard, vote-heavy northern Virginia, where Obama will campaign on Thursday. Davis said Obama won't be able to replicate the success of Sen. Jim Webb, who eked out a narrow senate victory in 2006 thanks to Democratic voters in that part of the state. "I do not see Obama opening up those kind of numbers in northern Virginia," he said, because McCain appeals to Democrats in a way that Webb's opponent, the more conservative George Allen, did not.
Davis said that "cultural issues" could hurt Obama in the rural southwestern part of the state, which has also played a crucial role in recent elections, but predicted that increased African-American turnout in the cities should add one or two points to Obama's vote total.
UPDATE: A Virginia Democrat passes along one of Davis' past political forecasts, which turned out to be less than accurate. In July 2006, Davis told the Washington Post that Allen's fundraising advantage in that year's senate race would allow him to swamp his Democratic opponent (and the ultimate winner) - Webb.
"George is going to be able to bury anyone on message," Davis told the newspaper at the time. "To beat that, you have to have to have significant amounts of cash, $10 [million] to $12 million, easily."
Virginia welcomes Obama!
I find it weird that a McCain supporter would say something like that.
BUSH / OBAMA SIMMILARITIES;
1. ,ANIPULATIVE BUSH/MANIPULATIVE OBAMA
2. USE OTHERS TO GET IN A OFFICE; BUSH HIS FATHER / OBAMA HIS PRIST
3. HAS DANE ALMOUSE ANYTHING IN THEIR LIFES!!!
EARN YOUR PRESIDENCY THRU HEARD MEANNINGFULL WORK, NOT REORICS!!!
Nice cheerleading effort Congressman Davis,
Also note the trend Dems 3 and Reps 0. That is, a big fat ZERO when it comes to seats that were open and were previously held by a repub. So, Davis' seat could be the next to go.
Or, are you telling us in advance that you're on the ticket and you're guaranteeing a victory in your home state? Hmm, interesting isn't it?
WHO CARES IF HE DOESN"T!!!!!!!!!!!! He will win this ELECTION, even with; Jesse's "overheard misspoke" comments...........................
Maybe someone should let the veterans and persons living on military bases in VA that McCain voted against the bill to expand GI benefits, and Obama voted in favor of that bill. And that his maverick reputation has been abandoned in favor of the current Republican policies under Bush. He lost to Bush with that maverick approach and so I guess he felt it didn't work for him. You can't embrace the current policies that have not been working for this country and still call yourself a maverick.
Well they also said he would not get this far??? And look what happen!!!! He is ahead in the polls and I know he will go all the way!
I live in rural Virginia. In 2000, we were surrounded by Bush/Cheney
bumperstickers, in 2004, there were maybe half as many. Now – I could count on one hand the number I've seen in the last 6 months.
And I could fill an address book with the disillusioned, formerly dedicated Republicans who have told me they've had enough.
Virginia will be very very close. Even down here in "good ol boy" rural
Well Mr. Davis,
Thank you and please get out of our government.
Don't speak to soon. Every State if fair game. Virginia's economy is in the dump. They better way what's more important, a redneck stance or a triving economy. This country is about to make a new historic turn, If Virginia want to stay in the dark ages so be it. Obama is about to "Tiger Woods" Capital Hill.
"McCain's biography and maverick reputation will carry him through a potential backlash against the damaged national GOP brand."
GOP brand ? = they are selfish unpatriotic idiots.
If his statement holds true, then there will be alot of unhappy people in Virginia come November.
Obama IS taking the White House, deal with it.
On a related topic: Remember Obama nation, you MUST vote. I state this loud and clear, as a former republican, the republicans usually turn out in proportionately larger numbers for voting then democrats. The democrats, historically, have a 'younger' voter they rely upon, this in itself has been the cause of large leads in the polls leading up to election day, but losses in the end. If you want to make this the landslide that we are speaking of, do NOT get lax! Show up and vote!
Another clueless comment from the wishful thinking, soon to be ex-congressman. Virginia is obviously in play this year- among the reasons the GOP has totally lost touch with political reality and the American electorate. Anyone remember George Allen in 2006 on his way to the 2008 GOP nomination for President. Watch Mark Warner win in a walk in November of 2008....
If RNC is not worried about VA, then why would they have this guy on a conference call ? Go figure !
The media has been trying to call this race for BHO everyday.
McSame is the world's greatest flip-flopper and CNN refuses to call him on it. He said months ago that we should leave Iraq if the government asked us to. Well now they have and he says we will not leave. That's not only a flip flop, it a half gainer with a full twist!!!!
A nother republican thinking all the people that lives in Virginia is stupid now. Good thing he is retiring.
YES HE WILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I am from Virginia. I am 100%sure Mr Obama will win big and i will campaign my heart out for him
When people are losing and scared – they counter balance and go into denial.
NO SE PUEDE.... Sr. Obama, Virginia is not with you and so maaaany of us! California will not be with you either, just wait to see!!!!
Of course a McCain backer is going to say Obama won't win Virginia.
Who wrote this article? Thank you Dr. Obvious. Where is the article about the Obama backer saying McSame won't win Virginia?