July 21st, 2008
08:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Obama, McCain statistically tied in New Hampshire

New Hampshire will again be a battleground state.

New Hampshire will again be a battleground state.

(CNN) - Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied in New Hampshire, the state known for its perennial political role that is again expected to be a key battleground in the race for the White House.

According to a new poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, Obama holds a narrow 3 point lead over McCain, 46 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent remaining undecided. That marks a clear departure from a similar poll conducted there in April that showed McCain with a 6 point lead among Granite State voters.

New Hampshire is only worth 4 electoral votes, but its famously independent voting electorate has repeatedly rendered the state a tossup at the presidential level: it voted for John Kerry by 1 percentage point in 2004 and for George Bush by 3 points in 2000.

Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The state has already played a vital role in the 2008 presidential process - John McCain's come-from-behind victory there is largely credited with salvaging the Arizona senator's White House hopes while Hillary Clinton's surprising win set the stage for the prolonged Democratic primary. Clinton and Obama later held their first public show of support in Unity, New Hampshire - a town where the two candidates exactly tied.

Watch: A look back at New Hampshire

The poll, conducted on July 11-20, surveyed 519 voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

soundoff (231 Responses)
  1. GP

    Obama may get more press than McCain, but McCain gets decidely better press as this story indicates.

    There are plenty of McCain stories that the corporate media fails to report. Daily there are statements by McCain that were they to come from Obama would be splattered all over the front pages and FOX would be doing their usual Breaking News segment.

    It is obvious whose horse the corporate media is betting on.

    July 21, 2008 05:54 pm at 5:54 pm |
  2. jaime47

    A more enlightening headline would have been:


    July 21, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  3. ali

    new hampshire will vote for obama as soon as they catch mccain trying to move their border next to pakistan.

    July 21, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  4. Obama Supporter from FL

    Wow. A poll about voter preferences in July for a state that only has 4 electoral college votes anyway?! Exciting day on the ticker, I guess...

    July 21, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  5. Peter

    Since when did "statistically" mean anything?? "statistically" Clinton was a shoe-in for the nomination, look how that turned out

    Obama 08!

    July 21, 2008 05:55 pm at 5:55 pm |
  6. Arkansas Undertaker

    I do NOT believe any poll that is out there. They are only polling a certain group of people.

    The polls are not very diverse.

    July 21, 2008 05:56 pm at 5:56 pm |
  7. Chris from NY

    This means Obama may actually carry the state. Right? I thought it was McCain's land.

    July 21, 2008 05:57 pm at 5:57 pm |
  8. An American

    More false reporting from the mainstream media...

    Here are the last two polls I saw...
    University of New Hampshire – 46 43 – Obama +3.0
    Rasmussen – 50 39 Obama +11.0

    July 21, 2008 05:58 pm at 5:58 pm |
  9. Not sleeping at the switch

    Tied there...Well ahead in Ohio no wonder all of the Obama Haters are going into high gear. Keep it up though. Your the reason why he is doing so well. All this and he hasn't even had one debate (that is going to be UGLY) poor McCain.

    July 21, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  10. bubba

    The Real Americans will decide this election. Those of us whose lineage goes back to England and Spain will not vote for Obama.

    Those of us who have served our country honorably will not vote for Obama.

    Those of us who love our country and don't want it to go Socialist will not vote for Obama.

    There are a lot of us.....Do ya hear me.

    July 21, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  11. Nashville Cat

    Yes, it IS a statistical tie when the article clearly states that there is a +\- 4.3% margin of error.

    July 21, 2008 05:59 pm at 5:59 pm |
  12. DflateMacsStr8TalkXpress: Econ MIA, AWOL on facts, POW from reality

    Well, just wait for those folks to get a hint of McCain's cowpie diplomacy and things will change.

    July 21, 2008 06:00 pm at 6:00 pm |
  13. Tejano

    Hey accountant Guy, do you have a brain or has it been swollen by the Kool Aid. What part of we don't want the Socialist Democratic party in power don't you get. At least the Germans call their party by the right name.... "Socialist Democrats".

    July 21, 2008 06:01 pm at 6:01 pm |
  14. Hope

    I wonder how come a person on full state of mind will vote for McCain!
    I will vote for Bush again before I consider McCain

    Barr all the way or even Obama but no McCain

    July 21, 2008 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  15. Montana is Obama Country


    YES >WE<... Can.....!!

    Barack Obama for President of the United States of America.......


    July 21, 2008 06:03 pm at 6:03 pm |
  16. Nashua, NH

    I would never support Obama. I will not be the only one here who feels this way. Obama has literally no experience to become president. No one has become president in this history of this country with this much experience.
    Neither will Obama. Wait watch and see.

    July 21, 2008 06:04 pm at 6:04 pm |
  17. Dan , TX

    Go New Hampshire! It is time for common sense for a change. VOTE OBAMA!

    July 21, 2008 06:05 pm at 6:05 pm |
  18. Cynthia - Arkansas

    The more McSame is out there whinning, the more presidential Obama looks. I want to be part of something upbeat and exciting. McSame is running the same negative campaign the Republicans always run. Fear and lies! I pray that the American people are ready to shake off this last 8 years, like it has been a bad dream. If McSame steals this election again, it will be our worst nightmare!

    July 21, 2008 06:05 pm at 6:05 pm |
  19. M.S. Indiana

    aww, poor PUMA. We are united against the republican hate machine. Just wait to august and there will be only blue states

    July 21, 2008 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  20. Barack the Vote

    NH is totally for Obama.

    We don't want a president who doesn't even know how to check his email online!


    July 21, 2008 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  21. Jim in Denver

    Dear Yeah Right,

    What kind of pidgin English are you speaking. Your comment makes absolutely no sense, which says a lot about your support for McCain........

    July 21, 2008 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  22. TonyinKentucky

    Obama by 6 in November in NH.

    July 21, 2008 06:12 pm at 6:12 pm |
  23. Ula Nejad- Sacramento Ca

    Whoever wins Hampshire wins the race. For some reason they find the presidents voice there.

    July 21, 2008 06:13 pm at 6:13 pm |
  24. let's be real

    unfortunately that 8% will dwindle down as people start making up their minds.

    July 21, 2008 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  25. Gary

    Yes people, it is a tie. The 3% lead is smaller than the 4.3% margin of error. In other words, the actual totals, if the entire state had been polled, could have shifted 4.3% in either direction. Obama could be up by 7.3%, or McCain could be up by 1.3%. That's the definition of a statistical tie.

    July 21, 2008 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
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