July 21st, 2008
08:01 PM ET
10 years ago

Obama, McCain statistically tied in New Hampshire

New Hampshire will again be a battleground state.

New Hampshire will again be a battleground state.

(CNN) - Barack Obama and John McCain are statistically tied in New Hampshire, the state known for its perennial political role that is again expected to be a key battleground in the race for the White House.

According to a new poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, Obama holds a narrow 3 point lead over McCain, 46 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent remaining undecided. That marks a clear departure from a similar poll conducted there in April that showed McCain with a 6 point lead among Granite State voters.

New Hampshire is only worth 4 electoral votes, but its famously independent voting electorate has repeatedly rendered the state a tossup at the presidential level: it voted for John Kerry by 1 percentage point in 2004 and for George Bush by 3 points in 2000.

Check out CNN's Electoral Map

The state has already played a vital role in the 2008 presidential process - John McCain's come-from-behind victory there is largely credited with salvaging the Arizona senator's White House hopes while Hillary Clinton's surprising win set the stage for the prolonged Democratic primary. Clinton and Obama later held their first public show of support in Unity, New Hampshire - a town where the two candidates exactly tied.

Watch: A look back at New Hampshire

The poll, conducted on July 11-20, surveyed 519 voters and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

soundoff (231 Responses)
  1. Elly

    Polls at this point mean nothing
    Experience got America *no where*
    down with the war monger!!!!! MCSame

    Go for good judgement Obama 08

    July 21, 2008 06:14 pm at 6:14 pm |
  2. bill for barack

    So McScum is slipping in still another state.
    Are the people of America already tired of his lies, his filth, his drooling, pathetic imitation of President Dubya ?
    Looks like it, don't it ?

    July 21, 2008 06:15 pm at 6:15 pm |
  3. capitalist

    guys...it is a tie...if the lead is within the margin of error then it is considered a tie or statistical dead heat...wow...the ignorance of this country is astonishing...

    July 21, 2008 06:20 pm at 6:20 pm |
  4. Allan

    what poll? look at news.aol.com poll and see McCain 68%--Obama 32%. 325000 vote at this poll. So stop talking about polls.

    July 21, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  5. We are a "nation of whiners" in a "mental recession".

    McCain please tell me which is true: We are winning the war in Iraq or We have won the war in Iraq. Which one is it?

    July 21, 2008 06:21 pm at 6:21 pm |
  6. scotty

    ever notice they are doing it again just like they did with hillary on the blogs. your a moron if you dont trust Oblah-blah. next watch it will be the uneducated that vote for McCaine

    July 21, 2008 06:23 pm at 6:23 pm |
  7. Jenny, Rio Vista, CA

    And we are supposed to believe polls that come out of New Hampshire. I think not.

    Mind you, a tear or two from one of them could equal a win.

    July 21, 2008 06:25 pm at 6:25 pm |
  8. JC

    It is considered a tie because neither candidate has a lead when the poll's margin of error is taken into consideration. In the poll, Obama is ahead by 3 points, but the margin of error is 4.3 points. Can't really say Obama is leading because its possible that he isn't.

    July 21, 2008 06:27 pm at 6:27 pm |
  9. Arlene pa.

    Listen to McCain, do you really think he would make a good comander and chief. Don`t think so. I am for Senator Obama all the way, and I will not change my mind.Hurry up November 4, I can`t stand the wait.

    July 21, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  10. Lamontefaison

    OBama u da man

    July 21, 2008 06:28 pm at 6:28 pm |
  11. dumpmccain/the realmccain


    all descriptive words used to define John S. McCain is recent post, blogs and News. so NH what ever you want to call McCain, don't ever use the word President.

    Vote Obama

    July 21, 2008 06:32 pm at 6:32 pm |
  12. Hispanic For McCain

    CHANGE??????? BO – null null – otherwise known as Dr. NO!

    "CHANGE"……What I Believe BO's Definition of Change Is!

    H = HATRED
    G = GREED

    Hispanic for McCAIN!!!!!

    July 21, 2008 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |
  13. McSTUPID

    The bitter old man is going down everywhere. He will probably lose his home state. McLame should just pack it in now.

    July 21, 2008 06:37 pm at 6:37 pm |
  14. from the desk of, DM of Texas

    In the faith that I had when joining the US Navy, that my commander and chief would be a man with wisdom and honor. From John McCain day at the Naval Acadamey he was rackless than and he rackless now.....

    I feel Senator John McCain is wearing the Navy Cap all wrong he needs to wear the Disable Vet Cap since is a "Disable Vet".

    Senator John McCain still needs to stop lying about Senator Obama this latest lie about blaming Obama for the rise in gas will backfire....

    July 21, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |

    Should the " my friends" senator add the "great" Gov. (past) of Ma. to the ticket I know that N.H. having been privy tp Romney up close and personal will vote as I will.....OBAMA 08 and 12,,,

    Yup, thats me the old/retired white guy from Ma.


    July 21, 2008 06:40 pm at 6:40 pm |
  16. Sharon

    Obama repainted his campaign plane and removed the American flag from the tail and put his campaign symbol on it. To the Obama supporters this is where your money is going for. His arrogance just keeps on going. I hope the American people will see thru this man

    July 21, 2008 06:41 pm at 6:41 pm |
  17. Obama 08 - rocking it baby

    Hello three point advantage is not a tie... keep it real! Obama will win all states or at least the majority!!!! I know the majority of Americans know they do not want McBush in the office therefore, change is coming!

    Obama 08

    July 21, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  18. JakeT

    Karen – Missouri July 21st, 2008 5:30 pm ET

    That's not a tie! Jeez, when will the media tell it like it is…why not play up that Obama is leading, although by narrow margin, period?


    You obviously don't know Statistics or polling nuiances, so go back to watching MSNBC and leave the analysis to the experts.

    July 21, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  19. jim

    Just because the difference is within the margin of error does not mean that it is a 'statistical tie'. A statistical tie would be 46-46. 46-43 is referred to as a slight lead within the margin of error. This is a serious error that has been repeated several times by CNN. You either need to send a memo to the headline writers or fire your stats guy, or both.

    July 21, 2008 06:43 pm at 6:43 pm |
  20. Florida

    Yea, People in New Hampshire are actually smart and are not brainwashed by the main stream media. They voted for Hillary and McCain and will vote for him again in November. Change is coming America, but its just not Barrack Obama.

    July 21, 2008 06:45 pm at 6:45 pm |
  21. Tim

    Another reason for VP Romney!

    July 21, 2008 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  22. tedious898

    Oh New Hampshire....here's a hint on who to vote for

    ....the smart guy!

    July 21, 2008 06:48 pm at 6:48 pm |
  23. ali

    mccain thinks new hampshire is in sweden.

    July 21, 2008 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  24. Praetorian, Ft. Myers

    In my town the undecided voters is about the same as the unemployment–7.5%

    sadly, neither candidate will really have the macho to address the real issues behind jobs...and retraining efforts will be targeted to the youth not the veteran workers....

    my recommendation is to learn a new language–then the unemployed supervisors, managers, executives can follow their jobs to India.

    July 21, 2008 06:50 pm at 6:50 pm |
  25. Independent-woman-4-Obama

    How SAD! After 8 years of failed Republican rule; the war; the national debt that has GROWN TO $10 TRILLION........ AND 4100 soldiers dead! With Bush/Cheney's lies, and all the laws they have broken Obama & McCain are in a tie!

    No one has polled our household of registered Independents, not our friends, some former-republicans!



    July 21, 2008 06:50 pm at 6:50 pm |
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