July 24th, 2008
01:59 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN's Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge

CNN's new electoral map.
CNN's new electoral map.

(CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (213 Responses)
  1. David from Ohio

    It truly sickens me that my state is a toss-up given how the Republicans have wrecked it over the last 20 years.

    July 24, 2008 02:00 pm at 2:00 pm |
  2. Ken Pittsburgh

    It is a long way to nov

    July 24, 2008 02:02 pm at 2:02 pm |
  3. Chris from NY

    Obama may think the media is doing him a world of favor. But they haven't. They let his rivalry get away with every wrong he's ever done and hammer him (Obama) for the frenzy they (the media) created. The media is speaking from both sides of it's mouth. They know how to make and break people. He just needs to be careful. Otherwise he he's been doing well so far. He got the game and on top of it too. I sure hope every American can look beyond the media glamor and see the man himself.

    July 24, 2008 02:05 pm at 2:05 pm |
  4. Robert

    I'll be curious to see if Obama gets a bump from his tour sinking in over the next week or two.

    July 24, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  5. Alex NYC

    If Minnesota goes anything but democrat I'll cut up, salt, and eat my hat.

    July 24, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  6. Marcus, Great Lakes IL

    I am sorry to say that this presidential race, in the end is going to be decided by the race of the candidate not the age.

    I have talked with quite a few people and though they won't say it aloud, they will not be voting according for the person best suited for the job but, for what color his skin is.

    They don't care if the other canidate is a dumb as a box of rocks, they would rather have America fall to her knees then to vote for a black man.

    I thought America has risen above the good-ole boy mentally but, I guess not.

    (CNN – Please Print this Comment)

    July 24, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  7. JIM...TX

    Is this like your "polls of polls CNN? A waste of time?

    July 24, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  8. Tired of W, OH

    realclearpolitics has a much more detailed electoral map that takes all of the major polls into consideration. They show a 238 to 163 advantage for Obama.

    July 24, 2008 02:07 pm at 2:07 pm |
  9. Tired of W, OH

    I'll second that, "David from Ohio".

    July 24, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  10. karen-phoenix

    Obama is ahead in Arizona by 3 points!!! We in AZ no how old and bad McCain is!!! Peace is Patriotic!! Go Obama!!!

    July 24, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  11. prefer O koolaid than your McArsenic

    AMERICA really think if you are doing better today than you were 8 years ago, by all means VOTE MCCAIN...but if you are in the majority of Americans who are struggling to make ends meet VOTE FOR CHANGE.
    John McCain has 59 lobbyist working for his campaign....who do you think he is in bad with?

    July 24, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  12. Marcus, Great Lakes IL

    I am sorry to say that this presidential race, in the end is going to be decided by the race of the candidate not the age.

    I have talked with quite a few people and though they won't say it aloud, they will not be voting according for the person best suited for the job but, for what color his skin is.

    They don't care if the other candidate is a dumb as a box of rocks, they would rather have America fall to her knees then to vote for a black man.

    I thought America has risen above the good-ole boy mentally but, I guess not.

    (CNN – Please Print this Comment)

    July 24, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  13. Marvin Higgins

    If Hillary Clinton was the nominee she would be ahead by 20 points. Obama is only even because he is black most white people will not vote for a black man for president. racism is a live and well.

    July 24, 2008 02:08 pm at 2:08 pm |
  14. Iron MAN

    "After the unpopularity of George W. Bush, the world is waiting to love America again, and many see in Obama, with his youth and his optimism, somebody who can bring that about."

    July 24, 2008 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  15. Kamran

    The media trying to make it look close, sorry, but that isn't going to happen. the MSM twists into making the elections look closer then they actually are is pathetic.

    July 24, 2008 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  16. Kathy in Michigan

    Compare this map to REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM's map. Their take is a little different. They have Obama with a huge advantage.

    July 24, 2008 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  17. ProundToBeDemocrat

    I live in Minnesota and it makes me angry see Minnesota as a toss up state it should be strong Democrat, last time I check MN was a blue state it seems like a lot of republicans are moving to my state.

    July 24, 2008 02:10 pm at 2:10 pm |
  18. Texas trail puppy!

    No matter how the media wants to spin this race as close. Obama will win by a Landslide in November.
    I would also wait for the polls after his Foreign Trip.

    July 24, 2008 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  19. Brian

    CNN... your electoral projections are a joke. What is the point of this, to make the race seem closer than it really is?

    Everyone go to electoral-vote.com for an accurate breakdown!

    Seriously.

    July 24, 2008 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  20. Mauri

    Obama's speech to the Germans will likely put McCain over the top.

    July 24, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  21. Earl

    NEWS ALERT

    CNN polls are not considered anything but LOVE for McWar...don't pay

    any attention

    July 24, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  22. fella from Chicago

    I'm a McCain supporter, but the latest Minnesota polling means nothing. The talk of a possible VP coming from that State caused this shift. If this doesn't happen, Minnesota will go back firmly in the Democratic column. The only "up for grabs" State I see Senator McCain probably taking is Florida. Unfortunately for the country it will be Obama in 2008 and after sanity is restored and reality sets in Senator Clinton (I like her style) or a GOP conservative will prevail in 2012.

    July 24, 2008 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  23. Elrod

    Unless McCain picks Tim Pawlenty, Obama will win Minnesota easily. This poll is noise. In fact, a Rasmussen poll the same day has Obama up 12 there.

    Colorado is also odd. Rasmussen has Obama up 7. Q-Poll has McCain up 2.

    But here's why. Obama leads Independents by 7 and gets the same ratio from Dems as McCain gets from Republicans. The party ID sample had Republicans at 8 points more than Democrats. That's implausible. The margin was dead even in 2006 and polls earlier this year showed it starting to go to a Democratic advantage. McCain has had virtually no operation in Colorado while Obama has registered tons of voters. A proper party ID in CO right now would have Dems up by about 4. Readjust and you have Obama leading Colorado by about 5 – same as last month.

    July 24, 2008 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  24. Jack Savedge

    I'm glad to see that CNN still has Ohio has a battleground state. It would be nice to hear something from the candidates. Perhaps the residents of Ohio need to go overseas to get Senator Obama's attention. He is traveling through Europe on his "presidential" tour as though he is our leader. He needs to be telling me what he is going to do for the thousands of us in Ohio who have lost our manufacturing jobs this past month. As a Democrat, I am becoming concerned that John McCain is the only one talking and I am starting to listen more and more to what he has to say. Why isn't Senator Obama offering an economic plan to help those of us that are now without jobs here? I could care less how much the people of Berlin like him. They want him; they can have him and I'll go back to supporting Hillary. I voted for her in the first place since she at least came to Ohio and gave us answers to our financial problems. She listened to us talk about the loss of our jobs and our homes. Obama doesn't seem to care about the common man here at home. Maybe it is because he can't identify with the common man.

    July 24, 2008 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  25. xddy4u

    CNN take this poll and shove it. Enough already.

    July 24, 2008 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
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