July 24th, 2008
01:59 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN's Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge

CNN's new electoral map.
CNN's new electoral map.

(CNN) — Two more states have shifted to the toss-up column in the new CNN Electoral Map that charts the candidates’ strength leading up to the November election.

Minnesota – which had turned from toss-up to “leans Obama” in the last analysis – is back up for grabs, along with New Mexico, which had been classified “leans McCain.” The shift of both states gives the Arizona senator a net gain of five votes over his standing in the previous CNN Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

CNN made the change in New Mexico after new polling conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center showed that demographic, a major voting bloc in the state, backs Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Election: Check out CNN's new electoral map

This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day.


Filed under: Candidate Barack Obama • John McCain
soundoff (213 Responses)
  1. Watermann

    Don`t believe in polls or statistics unless you have made them yourself.

    July 24, 2008 02:37 pm at 2:37 pm |
  2. bill for barack

    I appreciate the fact that you always note in these articles that you are only working with estimates that are likely to change,
    Still, isn't it fascinating to live in a country where we have the opportunity to speculate ?

    July 24, 2008 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  3. Nando, Florida

    Please I did a poll on my toilet yesterday and it said OBAMA by a LANDSLIDE . AMERICA IS NOT STUPID THEY KNOW MCCAIN IS A VILLAGE IDIOT WHO BOWS DOWN TO BUSHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    July 24, 2008 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  4. John

    Wake-up Folks McCain is the best person for the job. Obama and all his rich friends can write as many big speech's for Obama and the Media can Brain wash everyone. News Flash Obama 's a fake! Last year Obama was a nobody and was going every Sunday to a Chruch were him and his family listen to haters and dam this Country to Hell. Obama rich friends can't buy your soul if you don't let them. Don't let Obame Trick you out of your Vote!

    July 24, 2008 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  5. sylvie

    CNN, why did you ignore the Rasmusson poll that came out on the same day as the Quinnipac poll that shows Obama up 13% in Minnesota???? Doesn't fit into your narrative???

    July 24, 2008 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  6. McCain=the draft

    CNN, you and other networks, want this to be a horse race so people will be more interested and tune in. Stuff your polls.

    July 24, 2008 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  7. sherry

    STRANGE ISNT IT HOW THE STATES THAT ARE RED LOOK LIKE AN H

    H ......AS IN HELL , WE WILL BE LIVING IN IF MCCAIN BECOMES PRESIDENT

    July 24, 2008 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  8. Open Your 3rd Eye

    Can we chill with the polls at least until early Sept.

    Thanks

    July 24, 2008 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  9. Perusing-through

    For the 'umpteenth' time this week, I have watched TV news journalist asked about McCain's VP choice and whether there is an upcoming VP announcement.

    QUESTION: How is it the everyday John Doe knew there was never a plan for McCain to make a VP announcement THIS WEEK? Why is news journalists getting paid big bucks to figure out what the everyday Joe already know?

    This was a simple McCain head-fake to distract Obama's overseas Heads-of-State tour and deflect some of media back to his self. Simple plan the everyday Joe knew, but surprisingly the only people fooled were the news journalist. Duuhhhhh!!

    GOD Bless America!
    GOD Bless Obama!

    July 24, 2008 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  10. Xavier

    McCain is going to get slaughtered come November. I know. You know it. The media knows it. The republicans know it. Even those in denial know it. Obama versus McCain isnt as sexy as Obama versus the Clinton clan, so the media will come up with stuff like this to keep the ratings going. Come November however, the curtain will fall for McCain, and fall hard.

    July 24, 2008 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  11. pat C.

    McCain will wear himself out so bad before november that no one will vote for him. as bad as he has already gotten and he has not had to face obama yet in a debate i can just imagine how many mistakes he will make then. i can just see him stomping his feet and swinging his arms having one of his tantrums.
    did anyone notice this week when he was shopping in a grocery store i think in PA with a young voter and someone asked him if he got the ecomomy and he had to pull his notes out of his pocket to remember what a gallon of milk just cost! i can not see him making it till november!!!

    July 24, 2008 02:42 pm at 2:42 pm |
  12. Celtic

    CNN, you are so obviously "Obama." Every article on your website today has "black" in it somewhere or else it is specifically about Obama.

    You all failed journalism 101.

    July 24, 2008 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  13. Denise

    You mean an inexperienced, smug, condescending do-nothing is falling behind a war hero who has been serving his country since the aforementioned do-nothing was in diapers?

    This is a shocker.

    July 24, 2008 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  14. vic nashville,Tn

    From 06-04-2008 I watch only Lou Dobbs and Reliable sources
    Because the way main stream media treat the candidates
    This is a good news for Hillary supporters
    Hillary 08 or Mc Cain 08

    July 24, 2008 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  15. Justin Case

    The media is so bias it is really hard to believe and by the way, people might say that they support this person but when it comes time to vote and in the privacy of the voting booth, you will find people will not vote for this person. It is really hard to tell who Barack Hussein Obama really is because he is the always changing his mind and is a really strange liar, who talks out of both sides of his mouth at the same time.

    There is not way the bias liberal press can change the mind of white people to support this person. Just accept the facts that this is all a pipe dream and will not happen.

    Sorry to give all you Obamanites the bad news! You should have supported Hillary Clinton and not Barack Hussein Obama.

    July 24, 2008 02:43 pm at 2:43 pm |
  16. CNN @ it's WORST!!!!!

    Electoral Map – but his opponent still has 221 electoral votes — 32 more than McCain’s total of 189, and 49 shy of winning the presidency.

    Obama’s candidacy by a margin of greater than 2 to 1, 66 percent to 23 percent. Minnesota’s move comes after a new Quinnipac survey finds Obama’s lead in that state has shrunk to a statistically insignificant 2-point margin, 46 percent to 44 percent.

    This is only a CNN estimate, and is likely to change many more times before Election Day. PLease ADVISE!!!

    July 24, 2008 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  17. Rick

    And in another poll Obama leads Bozo but trails Ronald McDonald in the race for America's favorite clown.

    July 24, 2008 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  18. Helen, NY

    Those who vote for Obama are idiots. Obama is the most inexperienced presidential candidate in our history. Even Bob Barr has more experience than Obama. CNN and other media want to portray him as oresidential. He knows nothing. We also have no other choice so I will vote for McCain.

    July 24, 2008 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  19. Let's Unite

    Hope you are right Carl.

    And that makes three of us David.

    July 24, 2008 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  20. Greg

    I think everyone should question CNN's analysis considering they provide no real basis except a mention of a poll or two (seriously the Latino polls have been the same for two months, but now you move New Mexico?) I would suggest pollster.com, Real Clear Politics or FiveThirtyEight.com, where they actually show you basis for their categorizations.

    July 24, 2008 02:47 pm at 2:47 pm |
  21. Michael

    What a misleading Title, "Electoral Map: Both lose ground – but McCain gains edge". How does McCain gain edge when the overall picture shows Obama ahead by 30 electoral votes. I understand that some states have shifted into the leaning category and that this might favor McCain slighty (5 votes), this hardly allows for the proclamation, "McCain gains edge" when he is still behind.

    July 24, 2008 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  22. You are forgetting

    Your polls show people for Obama and people for McCain, but you are not factoring in the 18 million who did not vote for Obama and how they will vote, and a good number of them are Latino and I do NOT believe they will go over in big numbers for Obama.

    The 18 million HIllary supporters will get their say in November and it will serve Obama right and the media right for this farce of a campaign.

    July 24, 2008 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  23. Al, NY NY

    Dave from Ohio/Tired of W: You need to get the bible thumpers and "values voters" in the Cincinnatti and surrounding areas to wake up and get away from the "grandfathers' old party" The last few elections turned on them somehow making enough inroads to turn the election results to red

    July 24, 2008 02:48 pm at 2:48 pm |
  24. J.D.

    Ridiculous. Minnesota is in Obama's column.

    July 24, 2008 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
  25. Tommy

    This doesn't make sense. I am hearing from republican's I know who are active in party politics here, that there is a national movement by many powerful republican's to get McCain to resign his nomination (due to health reasons) because they think he is going down the tubes at this point. Where is the data coming from? CNN seems to want to keep it close like they did between Obama and Hillary. Wasn't that close then and isn't that close now!

    July 24, 2008 02:49 pm at 2:49 pm |
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